|
Tuesday's Illinois primary has suddenly become a big deal for Democrats nationally.
As David Sirota wrote yesterday on Open Left, Alexis Giannoulias, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in the Illinois primary, is now deeply embroiled in a banking scandal. Here is the gist of the story:
Broadway Bank, the troubled Chicago lender owned by the family of Illinois Treasurer and U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, has entered into a consent order with banking regulators requiring it to raise tens of millions in capital, stop paying dividends to the family without regulatory approval, and hire an outside party to evaluate the bank's senior management.
The Jan. 26 consent order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Illinois Division of Banking comes less than a week before Mr. Giannoulias - Broadway's chief lender and then vice-president from 2002 to 2006 - must face voters in the Democratic primary for the Senate seat previously held by President Barack Obama.
The story broke on January 26th, the day after both PPP and Rasmussen completed their polls on the campaign. As such, any polls showing Giannoulias performing better in the general election than his two main rivals, David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson, are now out of date.
Being caught in a banking scandal is always bad. Being caught in one during this political environment is practically a death sentence to a campaign. If Giannoulias were to win the primary, Democrats would be extremely hard pressed to keep the seat in November. Even worse, having a prominent Senate candidate--the Democratic nominee for President Obama's old seat--personally involved in a banking scandal like this could hurt Democratic chances in many other elections, too.
So, is there any chance Illinois Democrats will make the right move, and nominate either Jackson or Hoffman? Actually, the odds seem pretty good, especially for Hoffman. Here are all public polls on the campaign since early December:
Illinois Senate, Democratic primary polling
| Poll |
Date |
Undecided |
Giannoulias |
Jackson |
Hoffman |
| Rasmussen |
Jan 25 |
24% |
31% |
23% |
23% |
| PPP |
Jan 24 |
27% |
32% |
18% |
20% |
| Tribune |
Jan 18 |
26% |
34% |
19% |
16% |
| Tribune |
Dec 05 |
40% |
31% |
17% |
9% |
Since December, Giannoulias has effectively picked up no undecided voters. At the same time, Jackson has gained 3%, while Hoffman has surged 11%.
Even before the banking scandal hit, Giannoulias was not picking up any new support. Now, with Hoffman (and, to a such lesser extent, Jackson) apparently surging, and with the banking scandal in play, it is hard to see how Giannoulias picks up any of the remaining undecided support. With 25% of the electorate still undecided, this should be enough for Hoffman to win.
Hopefully, the banking scandal will boost the current pro-Hoffman trend. If Jackson wins, that's fine too. The worry is if Illinois Democrats either ignore this scandal, or give Giannoulias a sympathy vote for being targeted (that has happened in another big Dem machine town, Philadelphia, before). If they do, this Senate seat is probably GOP. Many others will become easier GOP pickups, too.
|
STATE BLOGS
