Okay, I know I'm going against years of political normalcy here, but let me give a free piece of advice to New York State elected officials: using the term "upstate New York" to refer to one region as a political whole is a little imprecise and very dismissive.
The latest example, from Gov. Paterson last night, while introducing Sen. Gillibrand:
Senator Gillibrand represents a region of this state that contains 40 percent of its population, but often is ignored.
Nothing against Gillibrand, but no, not quite. Sen. Gillibrand is from the Hudson Valley. What's that got to do with people in Elmira, Rochester, Niagara Falls, or Chautauqua County? Would Gov. Paterson walk up to any residents of those places and tell them "Guess what? I appointed Sen. Gillibrand to the Senate! She's one of you, since you're all from outside New York City!"? I sure hope not. So why do folks insist on referring to a region that big as one blanket term- "upstate"- and pretending people from "upstate" are all the same? I'm always happy to have elected officials from outside NYC, and she's Senator for the entire state, but Gillibrand grew up in, and represented a House district that is five hours from where I grew up. So what?
How does the hypothetical race shape up by region? In Gillibrand's backyard - upstate New York - she garners 50% compared with 23% for Ford.
Her "backyard"? If you take off Long Island and New York City- including water area- upstate New York is over 52,000 square miles. That's kind of a big "backyard", one that's roughly bigger than nearly half the states in the entire Union, including Alabama, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I was born and raised in suburban Buffalo, lived for four years in Rochester where I did my undergrad, my boyfriend teaches at Syracuse University, and my grandparents lived in a tiny village called Franklinville in the rural Southern Tier near the Pennsylvania border. In all of these places, some issues are the same, but lots are different. I'm pretty sure folks in those places wouldn't tell you they live in "Gillibrand County" or whatever. The culture and demographics are also different from place to place. The City of Buffalo is much more blue-collar Democratic, impoverished, and African-American than an Ithaca or a Plattsburgh or Cattaraugus County, and those places are all different from each other, so I don't know why all get lumped into ridiculous statements like "Hillary needs to score huge margins in NYC and hold upstate" as if "upstate" was all demographically the same and cared about the exact same issues.
Specifics matter. If you're talking about the Finger Lakes region, or Western New York, or the North County, or Elmira, or Westchester, or anywhere else, then say so. The sooner New York politicians- and pollsters- learn to stop speaking like 52,000 square miles' worth of people all live in one gigantic neighborhood, the better off they'll be.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is expected to announce tomorrow that he's not running for governor, U.S. senator or any other office next year, the Daily News' David Saltonstall reports.
Instead, he's expected to declare that he's staying in the private sector for now and endorse fellow Republican Rick Lazio for governor.
As I wrote before, once he bowed out of the gubernatorial race, I never thought Rudy would engage in a year-long campaign to become (likely) 100th in seniority. Personally, I thought his rumor-mongering of running for weeks was aimed at (a) alleviating his own boredom (b) drumming up consulting business (c) done because he was upset at the diminishing number of daily Google News hits on his name (d) all of the above.
At any rate, Lazio will get crushed by Cuomo or (we nervously hope) by Paterson, although I do remember an unknown State Senator by the name of Pataki running against the titan, papa Cuomo, in '94. Speaking of that unknown State Senator, he is still in the mix to run against Gillibrand.
A few months ago I wrote about the prospect of Spitzer running for office again in NYS. Well, it looks like that may happen:
Eliot Spitzer, who stepped down from the governor's office amid scandal, is now strongly considering a run for state comptroller, sources told The Post.
Spitzer has in recent weeks had discussions with some Democratic donors and insiders about the position currently held by Tom DiNapoli.
DiNapoli, a former assemblyman from Long Island, was appointed comptroller in 2007 after his predecessor, Alan Hevesi, pleaded guilty to using state workers as chauffeurs for his wife.
A Democrat who spoke with Spitzer said, "He's seriously thinking about it."
"He wants to run if he can," said another source. "He's still talking about it."
Gov. Paterson backed the idea.
"The type of way that former Gov. Spitzer managed would be most useful these days in the finance area rather than in law enforcement," Paterson said. "As you can see our biggest problems are - and the current comptroller has handled them very well, warning the Legislature over and over again what's going to happen if we don't act - so those who want to make change I think would be inclined to move in the finance area."
DiNapoli, who was a former Assemblyman appointed to the position by the legislature, is, aside from Paterson (who may not be the nominee), the weak link in the NYS-2010 ticket- even if Cuomo abandons the AG spot to run for Governor. His polling numbers and name ID are still low. And personally, I'm way over Spitzer's scandal, which is now a few years old (and not uncommon in politics, or personal life) and I'm all for him getting back into politics. He is a bar fight primary kind of Democrat, someone who seeks confrontation rather than conciliation first, and in the midst of all this Wall Street mess (his specialty), anyone the Chamber of Commerce declared a "War on Spitzerism" over is someone we could use. He also campaigned on the stump in support of marriage equality when running for Governor in 2006.
The interesting thing is if he took a Jerry Brown-esque approach to get back to the Governor's mansion some years from now. For now, though, he would be a great Comptroller, and I hope he runs.
To follow up on my post re former AG and Gov. Spitzer considering a comeback, the musing and maneuvering has begun. Immediately after The Hill and Danny Hakim at the NYTimes reported he was considering it, Spitzer came out with a full denial Tuesday night, then announced yesterday he was planning on teaching a course on law and public policy at City College of New York. Of course, this doesn't preclude doing a campaign as well, but it does try to bat down the rumors. Meanwhile, Survey USA did a snap poll, finding that 62% of New Yorkers would definitely or consider voting for Spitzer if he ran again for public office. It also found that 41% of voters think Spitzer is more qualified than Paterson to be governor, with 31% going for Paterson and 35% unsure. This follows up on a May poll finding 51% would rather have Spitzer as Governor over Paterson. While Spitzer's numbers do tank against Giuliani (if he runs) in the SUSA poll, and this is all speculation until Cuomo makes up his mind on running for Governor or not, I think there is some positive sign there that he could definitely run for office again and win, perhaps for Comptroller.
I should also mention that the New York State Comptroller is a guy named Thomas DiNapoli, who was most recently a member of the Assembly until chosen by his peers to replace the previous Comptroller over a scandal. An August 24th Siena poll found a whopping 74% had no opinion of DiNapoli, despite taking office in early 2007. To be honest, he's maintained a low profile, and I think can be beaten in a primary. I see that, or running for Attorney General if Cuomo opts to run for Governor, as the most likely possibilities.
The one other thing I did want to address was opinion over respect and forgiveness. After the news came out Tuesday evening on speculation that he might run again, I chatted with my mom and my sister about it. My mom was previously a die-hard Spitzer supporter. I interned in his Buffalo office when he was AG many years ago, and the same office intervened on our behalf when a car dealership tried to screw her out of their warranty obligation when the car was broken. And, as she would say, he's a good Jewish boy.
I was shocked by the flat refusal to support him (at least, in a Dem primary), and it was because of the prostitution issue. To me, I don't care about his personal life to any extent, unless he's using state resources or severely breaking the law, or it's rape. To her, and my sister, cheating on your partner is one thing, but cheating on your partner via prostitution is another. It's supporting an illicit industry, I was told, condoning a lifestyle that shouldn't be condoned, even if it's to support a child. It's taking advantage of women, even if it's consensual. It's interesting to note my mother and my sister are both die-hard feminists and Hillary backers (their reactions to the McCain campaign's targeting of Hillary supporters by picking Palin inspired me to write this piece last year analyzing the effects of it), so perhaps that has something to do with it. Each is entitled to their own opinion, but I am concerned this may by more prevalent than expected, at least among women or a certain demographic of women. It would certainly an important concern in any Spitzer campaign.
The Hill and Danny Hakim at the NYTimes, who usually has a good ear on what's going on in state politics, are reporting that former AG and Gov. Eliot Spitzer is "considering a comeback", possibly for Comptroller, his former post as Attorney General, or to primary Kristen Gillibrand for U.S. Senate.
A couple of quick reactions (native New Yorker and former Spitzer intern- many generations ago- that I am, I can't resist):
There are a lot of musical chairs here. Spitzer's running for Attorney General is predicated on Cuomo vacating the seat to challenge Gov. Paterson, should Paterson choose to run again, which is also not clear, but I'm told is extremely doubtful. Meaning, I don't think Spitzer would run in a primary for AG, and I am not sure he would beat Cuomo if he did.
While Spitzer against Gillibrand would certainly be interesting, I'm not sure it is the best expenditure of resources in terms of his candidacy. I'm not the world's biggest fan of Gillibrand, particularly her movement on LGBT issues around her appointment, but I also think she's been solid in terms of voting, and admire her leadership on marriage and Don't Ask, Don't Tell since she's come in.
According to the NYS Board of Elections, he has only $268,914 in his 2010 campaign account. He would face an uphill climb there, especially if it's against Cuomo or Gillibrand.
Regarding running for any office, yeah, conventional wisdom says he's too hurt by the scandal, it's only been two years since, yada yada. I say it doesn't matter. I remember when I was younger Bill Clinton had sky-high approval ratings in New York all through the Lewinsky episode and the same time period afterwards. Hell, if he was Constitutionally permitted to run again, he would have won New York easily. We're also the state that's elected two carpetbaggers- Hillary and RFK- to Senate. Plus, Spitzer's a Democrat from Manhattan. It's his base. I don't pretend to be an expert on NYC politics, but the Democrats in Manhattan I know see this stuff all the time, and shrug their shoulders. It is Manhattan, after all. If he were a Republican and his base was Cattaraugus County (where my Grandpa lives), it would be a problem, but he's not.
Spitzer as Comptroller is not the most exciting thing in the world, but the guy gets numbers and finances. When I flip on the cable morning shows and the topic is the economic crisis/Wall Street, he's there more often than not on panels, explaining how x led to y led to z and how to fix it. He's also done a number of op-eds on financial regulation, a particularly good one here, where he attacks free market fundamentalism. All of that helps him. I still occasional bring up his name back home, and the most common reaction I get is that the guy was smart, tough, and knew what he was doing re financial stuff. Don't forget he made his name as the "Sheriff of Wall Street". Plus, it can be a stepping stone.
My one true wish is actually that Spitzer runs for Governor again in 2010, Cuomo stays where he is, and Paterson opts not to run again. I have enough problems with Paterson's electoral viability, and Cuomo's noted lack of caring about any issues except housing, along with running to the media as soon as he gets a big settlement, to see this as important. Spitzer is a bar fight primary kind of Democrat to me. The opening of his resignation statement still makes me grin.
For the past nine years, eight years as attorney general, and one as governor, I have tried to uphold a vision of progressive politics that would rebuild New York and create opportunity for all. We sought to bring real change to New York and that will continue.
With the inauguration of David Paterson as New York's new Governor set to take place at 1 PM EST, I have some thoughts on how he's being set up to succeed, or to fail, by the traditional media. There are several frames being developed by him and the traditional media in which New Yorkers will start off in their judgment of Paterson over these next few months. I discuss four frames being set up, and the implications of each for progressives in the wake of Eliot Spitzer, in the extended entry.
On Tuesday, I wrote a post on having high hopes for David Paterson as the new Governor of New York because, in 2002, along with progressives Eric Schneiderman and Liz Krueger, he helped engineer a take-over of the Democratic caucus in the New York State Senate. A reader writes in to give me more info on what has happened since then:
In your post about David Patterson yesterday, you mentioned how he, along with Krueger and Schneiderman, took over the Minority Caucus from a monumental hack. They did. It was a wonderful moment. Unfortunately, as Democrats were poised to take over the state senate, Schneiderman lost his minority leadership position to a party hack with ties to Greg Meeks. How did this happen? Well Malcom Smith spent the summer of 2006 calling all his colleagues and asking for their support (in other words he began promising State Senators high ranking positions in the caucus if they supported him). Smith peeled two of the more progressive state senators away from Schneiderman and Krueger. Schneiderman, on the other hand, started campaigning after Smith did and, as a result, Smith out manuevered him. Both he and Krueger were thrown off the leadership team. Schneiderman lost staff as well.
In short, the progressives did the heavy lifting and the hacks reaped the rewards.
That is a little depressing, and subdues my hopes for Paterson somewhat. Paterson seems to be someone who tries to keep everyone happy, and in this circumstance it appears to mean that he did not do enough to keep the progressive leadership team in place that he helped install back in 2002. While trying to keep everyone happy is not necessarily a flaw in a politician, it is a flaw in a transformative progressive.
In 2002, however, Mr. Paterson shot to unusual prominence for a Senate Democrat. With two other Manhattan legislators, Eric Schneiderman and Liz Krueger, he staged a coup that ousted the sitting Senate Minority Leader, Martin Connor. The Manhattanites saw Mr. Connor, of Brooklyn, as overly resigned to Republican control of the body. They wanted to fight more actively to retake it.
Ah, so Paterson has been one of the driving forces behind Democratic Senate gains in New York. Also, he seems to have good friends, like Eric Schneiderman, who recently wrote an excellent piece about transforming the liberal checklist for the Nation. (Check out Digby's write up of the piece here.) Those are a couple of whistles about Patterson that ring loud and clear to me that there are reasons to be hopeful that another transformative progressive is taking Spitzer's place.
David A. Paterson (born May 20, 1954) is an American politician and the current Lieutenant Governor of New York. He is the first African American and legally blind person to hold this position. He was selected as running mate by New York Attorney General and Democratic Party nominee Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 New York gubernatorial election.
On a more superficial note, he also has a beard. This may sound stupid, but as a DFH who frequently sports facial hair myself, I am prone to trust male politicians with beards. Maybe he could form a caucus at the DGA with Jon Corzine.
I think there are some real signs here that David Paterson has real potential as the next Governor from New York. That should not be too surprising, since he was chosen by Eliot Spitzer in an election where Spitzer could have chosen really anyone and still won. This is another reason by choosing a reinforcing choice and / or a progressive choice as Vice-President is key for the Democratic presidential nominee this year. Let's just say, hypothetically, that Republicans attempt to tar and feather the next Democratic President with everything they can find. You know, like what they did to Bill Clinton. and let's just say, hypothetically, that the Democratic nominee is not a perfect person. You know, like everyone. As such, doesn't it make a lot of political sense to have someone like David Paterson in reserve, where in the horrifying event that the Vice-President needs to take over, that such a shift does not cause progressive policy moves to be halted? Having a second in line who will continue a progressive project is an unfortunate, but necessary, guarantee against an effective coup d'ete by the Republican Noise Machine. In fact, an overtly progressive choice for Vice-President like Sherrod Brown might even make Republicans think twice about getting rid of the next President. With Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, choosing a progressive as Vice-President could even potentially cause Republicans to back off a little bit (not likely, but also not impossible). A reinforcing and / or progressive second in line is a good guarantee for effective governance in the next Democratic administration.
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