In any wave election, a few long-shot candidates take seats who according to conventional wisdom really 'shouldn't.' In 2006, it was Nancy Boyda and Carol Shea Porter who snuck in; neither woman was endorsed by EMILY's List and both shocked the DC establishment by running effective grassroots campaigns and unseating popular incumbents in a wave year. This cycle, there are a number of other possibilities for this kind of candidate.
Becky Greenwald in Iowa is one, Steve O'Donnell in
PA-18 is another, Debbie Cook in California is another and Josh Zeitz in New Jersey is a fourth. Most longshots have a name ID problem, and one way to raise your name ID is by baiting your better known opponent to attack you and 'punch down'. There are other possibilities, such as running a great volunteer operation or a creative set of ads, but getting attacked is a sign that a low budget campaign is working.
Right now, Josh Zeitz is getting attacked by Chris Smith on radio and over the mail, and Smith hasn't acknowledged an opponent by name in 20 years. Steve O'Donnell got a semi-endorsement of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the paper owned by neo-confederate icon Richard Mellon Scaife, and his opponent, Tim Murphy is going hard negative with character attacks. Debbie Cook continues to close in the polls, and former Republican Congressman Pete McCloskey endorsed her.
Americans appear ready to sweep a lot of Democrats into office on November 4. Not only does Barack Obama maintain a solid lead in the popular vote and electoral vote estimates, several Senate races that appeared safe Republican holds a few months ago are now considered tossups.
Polling is harder to come by in House races, but here too there is scattered evidence of a coming Democratic tsunami. Having already lost three special Congressional elections in red districts this year, House Republicans are now scrambling to defend many entrenched incumbents.
In this diary, I hope to convince you of three things:
1. Some Republicans who never saw it coming are going to be out of a job in two weeks.
On a related note,
2. Even the smartest experts cannot always predict which seats offer the best pickup opportunities.
For that reason,
3. Activists should put resources behind many under-funded challengers now, instead of going all in for a handful of Democratic candidates.
There was a lot of excitement in the IAM (Int'l Assoc. of Machinists) union hall this morning in Huntington Beach, where DFA's Jim Dean and a host of local officials testified to the worthiness and strength of Debbie Cook, the Democratic candidate in CA-46, seeking to retire certified nutjob Dana Rohrabacher in Congress. But the best reaction was for the candidate herself, who gave a straight-shooting, no B.S. speech that made clear the stakes in this election.
"Do-Nothing Dana has been in Congress for 20 years and hasn't done a thing," Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, said to a pancake breakfast of around 120 volunteers who were ready to precinct walk for her. Referring to a claim from the campaign's latest ad, that Rohrabacher has sponsored a bill to protect the country from an asteroid, she said, "he needs to worry less about asteroids and more about planet Earth."
The California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee and our allies at the Leadership Conference on Guaranteed Healthcare are debuting a new feature: The Healthcare Heroes Caucus, which will honor candidates who are running on a platform of supporting HR 676, John Conyers' bill for an expanded and improved Medicare for All.
We will highlight the stories of these healthcare heroes, and work to get them the attention and support they need. It's not always easy to run in the face of insurance companies and a sold-out political culture...but it is smart. Poll after poll shows the American people are open to an expanded and improved Medicare for All, and are desperate for the kind of solutions that will improve care while saving money.
Debbie Cook is our first Healthcare Hero candidate and she's a great one. She is a committed progressive running in CA-46, an Orange County California district that is ready to toss out libertarian radical Dana Rohrbacher and elect a real leader.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
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