After any close election, not only will there be a sense of frustration and anguish among the supporters of the losing candidate, but there will also be a significant amount of feeling that the result was somehow unfair or unjust. The 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination campaign will be no different in this regard, as there are already numerous narratives from the Clinton campaign and Clinton supporters that Senator Hillary Clinton was, in some fashion, robbed of the nomination.
However, while there are at least six narratives of this type, none of them hold up to closer scrutiny. I examine, and debunk, each of these six arguments in the extended entry.
* = Totals include a handful of Clinton pledged delegates from primaries that have since switched to Obama. In other words, Clinton's lead in this category was actually larger.
** = Caucus events include AK, AS, CO, HI, ID, IA, KS, ME, MN, NE, NV, NM, ND, TX, VI WA and WY
*** = These numbers are only for the pledged delegates from Florida and Michigan
**** = According to current DNC rules, Edwards left the campaign with 32.5 delegates. The delegates Obama has since won in Iowa, and the endorsements he received from other Edwards delegates, are included in this total.
Without the caucuses, the Edwards delegates, and the supers, Clinton holds a narrow lead of around 45 delegates. Without the caucuses, Obama would have never taken either a pledged delegate lead or an overall delegate lead. As such, the supers would not have flocked to Obama, and Clinton would have maintained her once sizable and longstanding lead in that category. Similarly, without the caucuses and the superdelegate endorsements they resulted in, Edwards would never have endorsed Obama, further padding Clinton's lead. Finally, without the caucuses, and the super and Edwards delegates they resulted in, instead of a handful of Clinton pledged delegates flipping to Obama, we probably would have witnessed movement in the other direction. In other words, without the caucuses, Clinton would have won the nomination campaign by about the same amount that Obama ended up winning it by. The caucuses undeniably put him over the top.
Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination because of the roughly two million activists who supported his campaign. These were the donors, the volunteers, the caucus goers and the rally attendees who, in several key ways pushed him over the top. Here is how:
Media: Starting early in the campaign, much of Obama's mystique was built on the huge crowds he drew at rallies. Massive groups of 3,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 people who attended his rallies back in the first half of 2007 gave him a rock start persona that no other candidate could match.
Money: Obama's entire monetary advantage over Hillary Clinton came from small donors who gave $200 or less to his campaign. His $57M+ advantage over Clinton in this area of fundraising accounts for all of Obama's financial advantage during the nomination campaign. Outside of the $200 or smaller donors, Clinton's $10M transfer from her Senate campaign and $11.4M loan from personal funds draw her even with Obama in overall fundraising. As such, the extra money Obama had for paid media and staff came entirely from his small donor corps.
Iowa: Obama had to win Iowa in order to have any chance at the nomination. His Iowa victory was the legitimizing force that helped push the vast majority of African-Americans into his camp. Also, his victory knocked out all other contenders, setting up a one on one campaign against Clinton. The Iowa caucuses, like all caucuses, are fundamentally an exertion of raw activist power, and Obama's victory among Democratic Iowa activists was one of the main keys to his victory.
Caucuses: As I already noted, caucuses are a hothouse for activists. With odd and narrow voting windows, with a public vote, and with extremely low turnout, a candidate can only win caucuses if s/he commands the support of the most dedicated Democrats and Democratic leaners. Without his consistent, dominating victories in caucuses, Obama would not have led in pledged delegates. Without his pledged delegate lead, superdelegates would not have flocked to Obama. And without a lead in both pledged delegates and superdelegates, Barack Obama would not be the nominee tonight. Caucuses, and the dedicated activists who attend them, put him over the top.
So, because of the advantages that his activist corps gave him in terms of media, money, Iowa and caucus delegates, tonight Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. This statement is not meant to imply that other candidates lacked activist support, only that Obama had significantly more support from Democratic and progressive activists than any other candidate. He achieved this support because of his personal magnetism, excellent organizing within his campaign and, just as importantly as anything else, because of his early opposition to the war in Iraq. Because Barack Obama opposed the Iraq war before it began, he had the inside track to Democratic and progressive activist support. No other top tier candidate could stake the same claim to appropriate judgment on the defining issue of this decade.
Without his opposition to the Iraq war, Obama doesn't dominate among activists to nearly the same extent. And without his activist advantage, he doesn't win the nomination. The DFH's delivered Obama the nomination. Hopefully, he will campaign in the general election, and eventually govern, in a manner that recognizes and appreciates this fact. And, if not, hopefully those same activists will hold him accountable.
Based on the pledged delegate numbers at Green Papers, and the superdelegate endorsements at Democratic Convention Watch, I just did some quick math to see if Obama has reached the 2,210 magic number laid out of the "Clinton rules." In this case, the "Clinton rules" mean full votes for Florida and Michigan, and a Clinton 73, Obama 22, uncommitted 33 apportionment for Michigan. It turns out that, even without the Michigan and Florida superdelegates from the Obama superdelegate wave added in, Obama has reached 2,211 delegates under the "Clinton rules." So, he literally wins in every scenario now, and does so with room to spare.
And yet, Hillary Clinton has not conceded. Part of me doesn't care, because Obama has won in virtually everyone's estimation and there is no argument her campaign can make anymore (although maybe I shouldn't underestimate them). Another part of me thinks that if the campaign is over under the most extreme Clinton campaign argument, it is high time for Hillary Clinton to start helping Barack Obama win the general election in November. She should suspend her campaign as soon as possible. She can even keep her delegates if she wants, but it is time to acknowledge that Barack Obama will be the nominee.
So, since she asked, I suggest that you send her a message on her website. Tell her that it is time to suspend her campaign ASAP, and acknowledge that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Really, this needs to happen tomorrow, because otherwise the media focus will be on Clinton's refusal to concede and a continued division within the party. However, I will settle for Thursday, at the latest.
Go to Clinton's website,and tell her it is time for unity. Be nice when you do so, since nobody likes a sore winner. We have been divided long enough. The time for that division to end is now.
Update: Obama receives ten Edwards pledged delegates, and is now only 15 delegates from the nomination. Obama will win the nomination when polls close in Montana tonight at 10 p.m.
The AP reported earlier today that Obama has clinched the nomination. However, a closer look at the piece reveals that the AP was simply reporting what many of us have known for months: Obama has not yet, but will eventually reach the magic number of delegates. This is because the AP is counting private endorsements of Obama, along with a minimum of 14 delegates from tonight's primaries, in their totals.
Since I am something of a minor media figure when it comes to delegate counting, what the AP story revealed to me is that there will be a race among all media outlets to be the first to declare that Obama has reached the magic number of delegates. So, I'll join in the fray myself, using this post as a countdown thread. By my reckoning, Obama has 26.525.015.08.5 9.0 delegates to go.
For this count, I am using the Green Papers pledged delegate count, which has been the most up to date and accurate pledged delegate count during the entire campaign. For the superdelegates, I am using the Obama campaign count. My reasoning is that no one probably has a more up to date count of the superdelegates than the two campaigns themselves, but only the Obama campaign has a publicly available number. For the magic number, I am using Democratic Convention Watch which has been the authoritative source for overall delegate counting this entire campaign season.
Obama reach the magic number tonight at ether 10.01 p.m. when polls close in Montana, or at 9:01 p.m. when polls close in South Dakota. I'll update this thread as more superdelegate endorsements come in, and start live-blogging returns tonight at 8 p.m., eastern.
Several elections tonight. In the Iowa 3rd, we have Bush Dog incumbent Boswell vs. progressive challenger Ed Fallon. In New Jersey, we have Incumbent, machine-bakced, but generally progressive Frank Lautenberg vs. corporate challenger Andrews. And, of course, we have the final presidential primaries in Montana and South Dakota. I will begin live-blogging returns here at Open Left at 8 p.m., when the first polls close in South Dakota and all polls close in New Jersey. All polls close in Montana and South Dakota at 9 p.m. eastern. Polls close in the Iowa 3rd at 10 p.m., eastern.
What Is At Stake Tonight
Momentum. Currently, Barack Obama is precisely tied with John McCain in national polls, and effectively tied with McCain at the state, electoral college level. The ideal scenario for Obama to pick up momentum this week is to win both primaries tonight, reach the magic number tomorrow, and for Clinton to give her "acknowledging reality" speech on Thursday. That would give Obama three consecutive positive days of press coverage, and allow the nomination campaign to end on a positive note for the nominee.
The nightmare scenario for Obama is if he actually loses one of the two primaries tonight. As unlikely as it seems, this is actually possible. Poblano predicts Obama to win South Dakota by only 5%, and ARG predicts Obama to only win Montana by 4%. (Granted, Poblano predicts a Montana blowout while ARG predicts a South Dakota blowout.) Given that the Clinton's have been campaigning in the two states much harder than the Obama's, it is not out of the realm of the possible for Clinton to sneak out a victory tonight. This would be terrible for Obama, since wrapping up the nomination after a loss is exactly the sort of "stumbling across the line" scenario that has hurt Democrats, such as Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter, in the past. So, a double victory for Obama tonight, while not important in terms of winning the nomination, is important in terms of positioning for the general election.
More of what is at stake, along with my personal predictions, tonight in the extended entry.
Despite the wildly contradicting information about whether or not Senator Hillary Clinton will concede either today or tomorrow, the general consensus seems to be that she will "acknowledge" the delegate reality once Obama reaches the magic number. Two of her national campaign co-chairs, Terry McAuliffe and Tom Vilsack, have both used the "acknowledge once the magic number is reached" language. Given that Obama is only 34.032.5 30.5 delegates from reaching the magic number, according to Democratic Convention Watch, and that he will probably secure 17 delegates tonight in Montana and South Dakota, that puts Obama only 14.5 13.5 superdelegates away from reaching the magic number. Given the current rate of superdelegate endorsements, and the many reports of the rate signficiantly increasing as the week progresses, that is a number he will probably reach tomorrow. At the very latest, Obama will reach the magic number on Thursday.
However, while Clinton will acknowledge the delegate reality once Obama reaches the magic number, it does not appear that she will endorse Obama this week or release her delegates. As I explain in the extended entry, there are at least three strong reasons for her to keep her delegates, and wait a little while on the endorsement.
Early this morning, I wrote that Clinton currently leads in the popular vote by 19,899 votes. This figure is based upon the bottom line in the current Real Clear Politics count, minus 64,504 uncommited votes in Michigan that, according to exit polls, came from people who indicated they would have supported either John Edwards or Bill Richardson, had those candidates been on the ballot.
However, I now realize that those totals were incorrect. This is because, in Michigan, 27,694 votes were not counted because they wrote in a candidate. When, in accordance with exit polls, 72.9167% of those votes are allocated to Obama, that puts another 20,194 votes in his column. According to the broadest possible definition of one-person, one-vote, this gives Obama an almost comically narrow lead of 357 votes heading into tomorrow's primaries.
Of course, since we are dealing with estimates on the Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington vote totals, and since we are also dealing with estimates on the Michigan uncommitted and discarded vote totals, there is a margin of error in these estimates. Specifically, there is about a 3% margin of error in either direction among the estimated votes, since we are dealing with exit polls and the vagaries of the delegate selection process in the four caucus states. A 3% margin of error on the estimated 750,000 votes from these states gives a margin of error range of 22,500 votes in either direction. So, in order for there to be no doubt as to who won the popular vote, it will be necessary for Obama to win tomorrow's primaries by 22,143 votes.
For the sake of rounding, let's say 25,000 is the ultimate, "no doubt" popular victory threshold. This means that Obama needs to win tomorrow's primaries by 24,643 votes in order to definitively declare that he is the popular vote winner. Tomorrow night, while live-blogging returns, I'll provide updates on whether or not Obama will reach that threshold. No matter what happens, there is no definitive way to prove that Clinton won the popular vote. Also, as I indicated last night, the difficulty in determining the popular vote winner speaks to a lack of democracy in the process that needs to be reformed in advance of 2012 and other upcoming nomination campaigns.
What sort of reforms do we need? I say we go with the California Plan, abolish caucuses, and increase the number of delegates to about 6,000. Altogether, these reforms would be the most democratic system possible that still maintains a staggered primary calendar and a delegate-based convention. I'll have more on reforming the process soon.
This weekend, with the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee, the Puerto Rico primary, and the upcoming Montana and South Dakota primaries on Tuesday, election news remains focused on the nomination campaign. That is mildly irritating, since by my count Obama is only about one or two delegates away from securing the nomination even if Clinton somehow convinces the Rules and Bylaws committee to seat Florida and Michigan entirely based on the results of their January "elections." Consider the following:
Democratic Convention Watch currently lists Obama only 124 delegates from the nomination, and 111 delegates ahead of Clinton, even if Michigan and Florida are seated exactly as the Clinton campaign desires.
Current polling indicates that Obama is set to receive at least 42 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. While the actual number could be one or two higher, let's just stick with 42 for now, and put Obama 82 delegates from the nomination.
John Edwards, who has endorsed Barack Obama, still has 18 delegates according to the above counts. Michigan still has 33 uncommitted delegates, according to the above counts. Currently, not a single John Edwards pledged or Michigan uncommitted delegate has endorsed Hillary Clinton, and all available reports indicate that none of them will. So, that is effectively another 51 delegates for Obama, putting his magic number at 31.
So, even if Clinton gets exactly what she wants at the Rules and Bylaws committee, Obama still only needs about three more delegates to go over the top. This is clearly an exercise in kabuki theater, and the nomination campaign is completely over.
At the same time, I don't really understand the rage that is directed at Clinton for continuing her campaign through June 3rd. I don't really see any clear evidence that it is hurting Obama in the general election, as both national and state polls have fluctuated in the margin of error the entire year. For Democrats, the primary campaign has been overwhelmingly beneficial, putting at least five more Senate seats in play, delivering a huge partisan advantage over Republicans, and registering three million new Democrats. Third, since the system was overhauled in advance of the 1972 nomination campaign, the Democratic Party has never seen a primary season even remotely as close as this one. Several candidates, all of whom had far fewer delegates and party support than Hillary Clinton, took their campaigns all the way until the convention. In fact, there is no precedent for a candidate with as many delegates as Clinton dropping out before the convention. Fourth, Obama should receive a pretty big bounce when he officially reaches the magic number of delegates next week, a bounce he would not have received if Clinton had dropped out a few weeks ago.
Overall, continuing the campaign all the way through June 3rd seems to have far more benefits for Democrats, and even for Obama, than drawbacks. The only real problem is if Clinton does not end her campaign next week. Not only would this deny Obama the clinching bounce, but without any states left to vote it would remove all of the positive, party-building benefits of the nomination campaign on the ground.
I don't even know what the Clinton campaign would do after next week. Would she start a general election campaign against McCain? Her travel schedule has been entirely primary focused, and the only non-primary swing states that she has visited in the last three months are Michigan and Florida. Will she run ads against McCain? If so, given her huge debts, what would she do it with? It will be pretty hard to argue that you are the most electable candidate when you don't even have any money to run ads against John McCain anywhere at all. Will she even have a field campaign, like anywhere at all? Will the campaign be anything except a series of stump speeches on why Obama is unelectable?
There is nothing wrong with Clinton continuing her campaign through June 3rd. However, if she doesn't concede before the week of June 9th, then we will in fact have a big, big problem. Party unity will be extremely difficult to forge, as the Clinton campaign continues to make arguments about why Obama is unelectable, and as many Democrats understandably go nuclear on Clinton to force her out of the campaign. It is a thin, red line between continuing benefit to the party, and total disaster for the party. If Clinton concedes sometime next week, then everything is great, and worked out almost perfectly. If, however, she does not concede next week, then we have a huge mess on our hands.
Hopefully it will all fall into place, but there are reasons to be worried. In the extended entry, I have included a poll: will Clinton drop out next week? It is an important, and worthy question.
I had promised myself that I wasn't going to write about the Democratic presidential nomination campaign anymore, or at least that I wouldn't write about it as an unresolved, ongoing process anymore. However, with very few new general election polls after the holiday weekend, what's one more for old time's sake?
Anyway, in advance of the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday, DNC lawyers have issued an advisory opinion that the DNC is required to strip Michigan and Florida of at least half their delegates. Assuming for a moment that Florida and Michigan are seated with half delegations based on the results of the January 22nd primaries, we are presented with the following delegate chart:
* = Florida pledged delegates currently split 105 Clinton, 69 Obama, and 11 Edwards, based on the results of the January primary and two Edwards pledged delegates flipping to Obama. Superdelegate totals in the state currently stand at 8 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 13 uncommitted.
** = Michigan pledged delegates current split 73 Clinton, 22 Obama, and 33 uncommitted, based on the results of the January primary and April district conventions. Superdelegates totals in the state currently stand at 7 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 17 uncommitted.
This leads to a grand total of Obama 2,078.5, Clinton 1,919.5, Edwards 12.5, and 222.5 uncommitted. Obama would be 38 delegates away from officially clinching at this point, and Obama + Edwards would be 25.5 away from officially clinching. If reports of Obama banking three dozen or so superdelegates in order to officially clinch on June 4th or June 5th are accurate, then Obama will comfortably clinch before the June 14th Michigan state convention.
So, barring something truly shocking, Obama will reach the magic number no later than next Thursday. The nomination campaign, and all major federal primaries will be over. From that point, we will have exactly five months to come together, crush Republicans, and build the enormous trifecta.
This is the final nomination at a glance post that I intend to make. Tomorrow, the 2008 Presidential Election Forecast, which I will update just about every day between now and November, will replace it
The Democratic nomination campaign is over, and there is no need to keep a running, updated count anymore. Massive pro-Obama superdelegate movement, combined with the John Edwards endorsement, were the final straws. At this point, Obama now holds a commanding lead, even if Florida and Michigan are seated exactly as the Clinton campaign hopes they are.
* Two Edwards delegates in Florida have now indicated they will support Obama
Even if Michigan and Florida are seated based entirely on the results of the January "primaries," which is extremely unlikely, then Obama leads by 135 delegates even without the remaining 25 Edwards delegates and 19 Michigan uncommitted delegates added to his total. There is simply no longer any path for Clinton to reach the nomination. This is probably why Obama is poised to declare victory on Tuesday night:
Senator Barack Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday night not in Kentucky or Oregon, the two states that will be holding their primaries that day, or even at his home in Chicago. Instead, Mr. Obama's staff announced on Saturday, he will be returning to Iowa, where he won the Democratic caucuses way back in January and has at least two good reasons to revisit now.
Much more than nostalgia seems to have motivated that decision. If things continue to go as well for Mr. Obama this week as they have so far this month, with a romp in North Carolina, a strong showing in Indiana and daily growth in his support among party superdelegates, he could actually end up with enough pledged delegates to proclaim, without fear of contradiction, that he is now the Democratic nominee for president.
They should change the "could" to "will" in that article. As a result, it will be exciting to live blog Tuesday's returns. Here are a few more notes on the end of the nomination at a glance series:
On Tuesday night, Obama will also be able to secure victory in a metric that has long been important to me: the popular vote. Even if Michigan and Florida are included in measures of popular participation, notions to which I am actually quite open because no other delegate selection events were made available to the residents of those two states, about 260,000 more participants in Democratic delegate selection events preferred Obama to Clinton. While the uncommitted vote in Michigan and lack of popular totals in four caucus states make a final count impossible, exit polls and voter turnout estimates among those groups provide conclusive, incontrovertible evidence that more participants in Democratic delegate selection events supported Obama than Clinton. This metric might not matter to you, but it even with all the imperfections in the process it does matter to me, and I am very glad that our presumptive nominee will finish ahead in this category. (See here and here for more information on this.)
Biggest Upset Ever. The enormity of Obama's accomplishment should not be underestimated. He succeeded where Ted Kennedy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley failed: defeating a candidate with overwhelming institutional support to win the Democratic nomination. Going into this campaign, the Hillary Clinton had fifteen years of power building at her back, and Obama was able to edge her out in only fifteen months.
Best Nomination Campaign, Ever: The three nomination campaigns I remember when I was growing up were 1984, 1988 and 1992, all of which were lengthy, unpredictable contests with numerous twists and turns. The next three Democratic contests, 1996, 2000 and 2004 were incredibly weak and boring by comparison. For quite some time, I have longed for a campaign when everyone got to have their say, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I longed for a real contest over who would lead the Democratic Party, and even though the ideological component of this campaign was mainly identity-based, we finally got another one of those. As a blogger and a political junkie, I wanted few things more than to be able to become a leading expert on delegates and delegate counting. Over the last four months, I have relished that role about as much as I have ever enjoyed anything as a blogger. Truly wonderful.
There is a general perception that the netroots did not play much of a role in this campaign. In fact, when I stated last night that Obama won the nomination because African-Americans and the netroots shifted in his favor during January, many in the comments scoffed. However, a closer look at the numbers indicates that Obama did indeed win the nomination because of his roughly 2-1 advantage among the activist base, and that his advantage in that area did not materialize until toward the end of January. Consider the following numbers:
Caucus delegates: (includes New Mexico and the Texas caucus)
Obama: 337 (63.1%)
Clinton: 191 (35.8%)
Take out the seven Edwards delegates from New Hampshire and South Carolina who have endorsed Obama, and the primary delegate margin is only nine delegates. Without the 146 delegate advantage earned in caucuses, Obama would not be heading to the nomination right now. Clinton would still hold a superdelegate lead of greater than nine, Clinton would probably take a narrow pledged delegate lead after June 3rd, and she would also gain a few more from whatever compromise is worked out in Michigan and Florida.
Without caucuses, Clinton would hold a narrow lead in the nomination campaign, instead of Obama being the presumptive nominee. Caucus attendees are activists, and Obama's advantage among that segment of the Democratic Party pushed him over the top in terms of delegates. Much the same can be said about money:
Donations under $1,000 (percentages reflect totals for Democratic presidential candidates)
Obama: $142,562,247 (59.3%)
Clinton: $66,489,244 (27.6%)
We see virtually the same pattern between large and small donors as we see between caucus and primary delegates. Obama builds an enormous advantage among small donors, and then is able to draw even among large donors. Just as was the case with primary delegates, Obama's narrow lead among large donors would not have been enough, in and of itself, as Clinton's $11.4M in self-funding and $10M transfer from her Senate account would have put her over the top if it were not for the small donors.
Without the small donors and caucus goers, among whom Obama held a roughly 7-3 advantage, Clinton would have eeked out the nomination. The activist base, which Obama significantly organized online (though certainly not exclusively so), was the difference. Activists giving Obama's campaign small donations, caucus support, and volunteer time were utterly crucial to Obama's success in the nomination campaign. Also, it is clear that Obama did not have this group locked down in January, as he won the Iowa caucus by only 8%, and actually lost the Nevada caucus (at least in terms of popular support) by about 6%. Also, entering January, Obama and Clinton were almost exactly even in terms of fundraising, and Clinton had actually been gaining financial ground on Obama since the end of the second quarter.
Obama won the nomination because two large, important constituencies in the Democratic Party heavily shifted in his favor during January: African-Americans and the (primarily online) activist base. Just as Obama turned roughly even support among African-Americans at the beginning of January into a 6-1 advantage by the end of January, Obama turned roughly even caucus and financial support among activists at the start of January into 2-1 advantages by the end of January. The February endorsement votes on MoveOn.org and Daily Kos both broke almost exactly according to the same percentages as post-January caucus results (66.4%--33.6%) and post-January small donor (68%-32%) support: 70-30 at MoveOn.org, and 67-32 at Daily Kos.
Similarly, as I documented last night, progressive infrastructure that relies on small donors and the activist base is also thriving: blogs, MoveOn.org, Act Blue, unions and Democratic Party committees are all reaching record heights. Despite being cut off from soft money donors at the behest of the Obama campaign, these are still heady days for the progressive activist base, as its infrastructure thrives and as it played of the key roles in swinging the Democratic Presidential nomination. And so, I'm feeling pretty good today. The activist base is actually continuing to increase its share of influence over the Democratic Party and progressive movement, despite worries to the contrary. While there will always be obstacles and stumbles along the way, overall things look pretty good, and we are seizing the advantage in the activist class war.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws committee will make its recommendation for seating Florida and Michigan on May 31st, the day before the Puerto Rico primary. So, we will know the likely seating arrangement for those two states the day before the Puerto Rico primary. And, as already indicated, Obama will reach a majority of pledged delegates on June 1st no matter what recommendation the Rules and Bylaws Committee makes.
In other words, the Obama campaign will be able to declare either total victory, or pledged delegate victory, on the evening of June 1st no matter what happens over the next 19 days. Expect Obama to make a big victory speech either Sunday evening on June 1st, or Monday, June 2nd.
Now, given the competing delegate totals, Obama's clinch date is not likely to be the same date when Clinton concedes. For a moment, let's entertain the remote possibility that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee completely sides with the Clinton campaign on fully seating Florida and Michigan based on the results of the January primaries. In that scenario, Obama does not clinch the nomination until Saturday, June 14th, the day of the Michigan Democratic Party convention. However, by June 14th, Obama will be expected to ring up another 128 superdelegates, 87 pledged delegates, and between 16 and19 uncommitted Michigan delegates. This makes for a minimum gain of another 231 delegates according to the most favorable Clinton count by June 14th, giving him a total of 2,209.5 delegates, or precisely the largest possible magic number on that date. With the final rounds of the Iowa and Washington caucuses taking place on June 14th and 15th respectively, Obama will reach the magic number on June 15th, even according to Clinton's most favorable count.
A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. He could not bring himself to say the words "Hillary will drop out by June 15," but that is clearly what he meant. I kept saying, "So, Hillary will drop out by June 15," and he kept saying, "We will have a nominee by June 15." He stressed what a reasonable person Hillary is.
Now, while I expect that Clinton will drop out on June 4th, following the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee ruling and the Montana and South Dakota primaries, this means that the absolute latest possible date to expect a Clinton concession is Monday, June 16th, the first weekday after June 15th. While Obama will have been widely perceived to have clinched the nomination on June 1st, and while his campaign will almost certainly declare victory on that day, Clinton might just hang around for another couple weeks.
So, there you have it. Obama clinches the nomination on June 1st, and Clinton concedes between three and fifteen days later. Right now, we are in a sort of holding pattern where the party, the Obama campaign, and the media alike slowly adjust to general election mode.
As Matt noted below, Obama is going to get crushed in West Virginia tonight. In fact, crushing victories look par for the course the rest of the way out:
Current polling projects that Obama only needs 42.5 superdelegate endorsements between now and June 3rd in order to clinch the nomination on June 4th, at least according to his campaign's count.
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The Clinton campaign count doesn't help her that much, as Obama only needs 35.8% of the remaining superdelegates, Edwards delegates, and Michigan delegates in order to secure the nomination. It buys her time, but really only until June 15th, and does not change the outcome. Don't expect superdelegates to accept what will be a clearlybogus argument on the popular vote, either. And, as a final problem, one of her pledged delegates switched to Obama today.
Ah, I'll miss the nomination at a glance series. What are your predictions for tonight?
Here is a round-up of what has been a series really bad bits of news for Hillary Clinton's campaign today:
Obama will never fall behind in any overall delegate count, every again. Obama will be ahead of Clinton is delegates even if Florida is seated as is, and even if Obama gets zero delegates from Michigan, and even if Obama dails to net anymore superdelegates. Polling conducted before Indiana and North Carolina projected Clinton to net 31 pledged delegates from the remaining six contests. However, Democratic Convention Watch projects Obama ahead by 37.5 delegates even if Florida is seated based on January 29thth results, and even if Obama receives zero delegates from Michigan. In other words, there is no conceivable delegate count under which Clinton will ever be ahead, ever again.
Of course, that above situation, where Obama can't lose, assumes that polls won't get any worse for Clinton. However, Obama is surging in the Rasmussen tracking poll to the point where Rasmussen announced it will discontinue the tracking poll.
Of course, that above situation, where can't lose, assumes that Obama will receive zero delegates from Michigan. However, the entire leadership of the Michigan Democratic Party now supports giving Obama 59 delegates from Michigan.
The nomination campaign is rapidly collapsing. Given how fast this is taking place since pundits declared the race over, it appears that the national media could have done this anytime since Wisconsin if they so desired. Sad to say it, but they really do still have the power.
I know we are supposed to move on from the nomination campaign at this point, but in case there was any lingering doubt Clinton could still win the nomination, the new deal proposed from the Michigan Democratic Party should be an end to it. Every high-level Michigan Democrat now appears to be behind a 69-59 pledged delegate split, plus seating the superdelegates:
Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.(...)
The state party's executive committee voted today to ask the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would shrink Clinton's delegate edge in Michigan from 18 to 10 and allow the state's 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.
The state's Democratic leaders also pushed back the date of the party's State Central Committee meeting from May 17 to June 14 to give the rules committee time to act. The party is to pick 45 pledged delegates and two superdelegates at that meeting. It chose 83 pledged delegates last month at district conventions.
A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.(...)
The 69-59 split was proposed last week by four prominent Michigan Democrats who have been working for months to find a way to get Michigan's delegates seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and DNC member Debbie Dingell.
While this may not be the exact plan that will pass, it is probably pretty close to the exact plan that will pass. Further, because of hte people backing the proposal, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant, and probably be seated based on something similar to the January 29th results. Here is the delegate count under that scenario:
Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 96 delegates when the Michigan Party's plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 96 delegates with 549.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon's best case scenario, Obama only needs 227 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.3%, to win the nomination.
Clinton's best-case scenario still overwhelmingly favors Obama. So yes, the outcome of the nomination campaign is now a foregone conclusion.
Update: Yes, Florida probably won't be seated as is, and I probably should not have written that it would be. Still, that is why this is Clinton's best-case scenario. And it ain't very good.
Update 2: The Clinton campaign rejects the proposal, which isn't surprising because it puts her nowhere near the nomination. However, considering its backers, most of whom are Clinton people, I still say that something better than this for Clinton is extremely unlikely.
I spent a good amount of time last night ranting about how the national media called the nomination campaign for Obama after the North Carolina and Indiana results, even though their logic for doing so could have been applied at any point in the campaign since the Wisconsin and Hawaii nomination contests on February 19th. See Does It Matter If Clinton Loses Indiana?, Why End The Great Lie Now?, and Is It Over? for my fumings on the subject. Essentially, since February 19th analysis of the campaign revealed that Clinton had virtually no chance of closing the delegate gap, and pretending otherwise was just an exercise in kabuki-theater where Obama was ritually gutted by the national media for the amusement of a reality-ignoring pundit elite. Reviewing MSNBC this morning, it turns out that my assessment of the past eleven weeks was actually quite accurate. From CW-immersed First Read (emphasis mine):
In a way, Clinton turned out to be prescient when she said that the North Carolina and Indiana contests would be a game-changer in the race for the Democratic nomination. What changed, however, was the story that Obama -- even though leading by every metric -- was on the defensive after losing Pennsylvania and after weeks of Jeremiah Wright and "bitter." But in winning North Carolina last night, his margin of victory (more than 230,000) was even larger than the amount that Clinton won Pennsylvania by (about 215,000). In fact, when you combine Clinton's narrow victory in Indiana and Obama's much larger one in the Tar Heel State, he ALMOST netted more votes than Clinton obtained from Pennsylvania. In short, we're right back to where we were on April 21, and that's something that won't be lost among Democratic superdelegates, especially after two weeks dominated by Wright.(...)
Second, on the delegate front, if Florida and Michigan were seated as is and Obama got the uncommitted delegates in Michigan, Clinton would net an additional 32 delegates from Florida and 18 from Michigan -- for a total net of 50. So add those numbers into the current pledged delegate count and Obama still would lead in the pledged delegate count by more than 100, approximately 110 in fact. So let's use 110 as the baseline. For Clinton to overtake him in the pledged delegate lead using THEIR math on Florida and Michigan, she'd need to win 75% of all remaining delegates. That's an impossible task. Most importantly, knowing the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee the way we THINK we do, the likelihood of the committee NOT punishing Florida and Michigan in some way (say a cut in half of their delegates a la the Republicans) would then make this FL/MI exercise moot.
The point of the last eleven weeks wasn't that Clinton had a realistic chance of catching up to Obama in delegates. Apparently, they knew all along that was impossible, even if they didn't bother to tell anyone. Instead, it appears that the point was to see if she could gain any ground at all while Obama was filleted with every negative news story imaginable. In other words, they gave the Clinton campaign eleven weeks to execute its plan of catching up a little bit, destroying Obama as a viable candidate, and then hoping against hope that CW would turn against him so hard that delegates would exodus from him en masse. So, it really was eleven weeks of ritual torture of Obama on a kabuki stage where the outcome was pre-determined, and Obama was tortured just for the sake of it. I wasn't wrong. Like some sort of secret society hazing ritual, it was a group decision to see just how badly they could damage Obama for eleven weeks. Once Obama demonstrated they couldn't hurt him anymore, he became one of them.
Aaarrggghhh. While it is infuriating, I guess the eventual outcome wasn't really all that bad. There were some benefits to waiting this long to call the nomination campaign:
Six months is plenty of time for a general election, and eleven extra weeks of the general election campaign would have been pretty boring. Not much happened during March and April of 2004, and now there is more than enough time left to define McCain and unify the party.
The Democratic self-identification advantage over Republicans is now at an all-time high, according to Rasmussen. Extensive Democratic organizing took place in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming and the upcoming states. The party was greatly expanded in all of the post-Wisconsin states. As a result, we look set to pick up a House seat in Mississippi, and now even Texas might be in play for the general election. So, the fifty-state strategy got a real boost.
Hard to imagine that there is anything new to throw at Obama in the general election now. I know that this rationale for Clinton's attacks was derided by many, but it does also have a kernal of truth to it. Obama faced an all-out, kitchen sink assault on his image that is probably more vicious than the one he will receive in the general election, because this time around many pro-Clinton Democrats were reifying those attacks every day. As such, it is actually possible that things get easier for Obama from here on out, since there will be fewer Democrats justifying conservative attacks against him.
So, maybe the last eleven weeks really weren't so bad. At the very least, I think it has increased my understanding of the way campaigns are covered by the national media. There are still requisite hazing rituals for the new bearer of the "liberal elite" mantle, but it seems we have come through the other side of this particular ritual relatively unscathed. We are finally in the end game now, and the nomination will be officially over no later than June 15th.
The Obama campaign has started to keep a running count of superdelegates on its results page. While it does not provide a list of the superdelegate endorsements, the total is still a useful public service. Also, I can understand why they wouldn't want to list the individual superdelegates, given that any errors could cause real problems from them. At this point, I'm fine that they only provide totals.
Some might object that I am not accurately portraying the position of the Obama campaign on Michigan and Florida. While I list the Obama campaign arguing for a 184-184 split of the 368 delegates from those two states, the results page on the Obama campaign website lists each state as receiving zero delegates. However, this is a contradiction from the Obama campaign, not an error on my part. While the campaign lists each state with zero delegates, it has also stated that it wants to see Michigan and Florida both seated at the convention, but with a 50-50 split of delegates. So, the campaign is arguing for 184-184 in some places, and 0-0 in others. Since we all know that both states will be seated at the convention, I will stick with 184-184 for now.
Clinton has actually picked up a couple of delegates recently, one in Pennsylvania (now projected at 85-73 by Green Papers) and one half in American Samoa (now projected at Clinton 2-1 Obama by Green Papers), for a net of three delegates.
I have also separated out Michigan and Florida in these tables so that they make more sense. The 45 remaining delegates from Michigan will be chosen on May 17th at the state party convention, I believe. At that convention, according to her campaign's count, Clinton will pick up twenty-six more delegates and net at least seven. After that, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will hold a hearing on Michigan and Florida on May 31st. If nothing changes from that meeting, then the Credentials Committee takes over the matter.
Here are the future delegate projections, with the state projections based on current polls:
This brings us to the following, dueling projections:
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Total
2,140
2,002
19
211
2,208.5
Clinton Total
2,048.5
1,992.5
37
335
2,208.5
Clearly, under the Obama count, the nomination campaign is effectively over. Obama is still favored even under the Clinton count, since he would only need 46.9% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number.
Clinton's path to the nomination involves a combination of two rather unlikely steps. First, force a the campaign all the way to the convention by preventing Obama from reaching the magic number under Clinton's most favorable count. This will require both forcing an extremely favorable deal on Michigan and Florida and significantly improving upon her current projected delegate totals in remaining states. Second, it will require her to destroy Obama as a viable general election candidate to such a degree that Obama superdelegates actually start shifting to Clinton. To date, not a single Obama superdelegate has switched to Clinton, so once again this seems extremely unlikely.
The nomination campaign is taking a while, but it certainly seems like Obama is headed to victory, probably sometime in mid-June.
