Barack Obama has won the Democrats Abroad Global Primary, according to the International Chair for the Democrats Abroad, Christine Marques.
Marques tells CNN the results of the week-long vote were:
Barack Obama - 65 percent, Hillary Clinton - 32 percent, with the rest of the candidates pulling in less than 1 percent of the vote each.
Democrats Abroad will send 22 delegates to the Democratic Convention, with half a vote each, carrying a total of 11 votes.
14 of the 22 delegates will be "pledged," making for a total of 7 pledged delegates. No word on how they break down yet, but 5--2 or 4.5--2.5 seems like the probable outcome given the popular vote totals.
Obama is ahead of Clinton is delegates even when Florida and superdelegates are included in the overall totals now. It is only when Michigan, which currently projects an 80 to 1 pro-Clinton delegation, is included that Clinton takes a lead of about 35. It is hard to imagine how the last two weeks could have gone better for him.
On the eve of "Potomac Tuesday," here is the polling situation in D.C., Maryland and Virginia:
Democrats Abroad (7 pledged delegates): No polls on this campaign, and voting has been underway since February 5th. Early voting from some areas, such as Spain and Indonesia, has been favorable to Obama.
Maryland (70 pledged delegates): Obama 54.2%--34.0% Clinton, across six polls.
Virginia (83 pledged delegates): Obama 54.5%--36.8% Clinton, across six polls.
The current pledged delegate count stands at Obama 1,019, Clinton 937. A good number to watch for tomorrow night will be if Obama can move his pledged delegate advantage to 106 or higher, which would give him the lead even if the best case Michigan and Florida scenarios for Clinton are included in the totals.
Update: I just received an email from Constituent Dynamics. According to their polling, Obama will receive 100 pledged delegates in DC, MD and VA tomorrow, while Clinton will receive 68. Cross tabs of their polls for tomorrow can be viewed here (28 page PDF).
Are we getting ready to vote again already? Really? Man, this never ends. Super Tuesday counting is expected to end today, so I guess we will be receiving new delegate totals every day from now through Wednesday, inclusive.
There has been very little polling for the numerous contests to take place over the next five days, but here is what little post-Iowa information we have:
Washington caucuses, February 9th. Starts at 4 p.m. eastern: Obama 53%--40% Clinton. Survey USA, 2.2-2/3. 78 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and both candidates are on the air and campaigning on the ground in Washington. With a caucus and a double-digit lead in the polls, Obama is heavily favored here.
Louisiana primary, February 9th. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern: No polls to report, ever. What polls there are wouldn't be of any use anyway, as we saw in the primary challenge against William Jefferson in late 2006. I can report that there are 56 pledged delegates at stake, and that Jesse Jackson won here in 1988. Both candidates are campaigning on the ground and over the airwaves. Obama is once again favored. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.
Nebraska caucuses, February 9th, ends at 9:30 p.m.: Once again, no polls to report, ever. We will probably see results trickling in from Nebraska all day tomorrow, since the caucuses start as early as 11:00 a.m. eastern in some places, and end as late as 9:30 p.m. in others. Obama has dominated caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. He also won a little caucus that was held in Iowa five weeks ago. This is big time Obama territory, and Clinton is not even visiting the state. I expect another 2-1 Obama victory in pledged caucus delegates from here.
Virgin Islands, convention, February 9th: Beats me how the three pledged delegates will break. Expect either 2-1 Obama or 2-1 Clinton. Then again, as telephasic points out in the comments, it will probably go 2-1 Obama, given that the island is 76% African-American.
Maine caucuses, February 10th, starts as early as 1 p.m. eastern: There hasn't poll a from here since April, when Clinton led 39%-22%. Of course, Clinton led everywhere back then, so who knows. No clear favorite, with 24 pledged delegates at stake. This is probably Clinton's best chance for a win this week.
Democrats Abroad, February 12th, already underway: The balloting for Democrats Abroad ends on February 12th, and we should know the results before any other polls close on Tuesday. Again, I wouldn't presume to guess how the seven pledged delegates at stake will divide up.
Maryland primary, February 12th: The only recent poll from Maryland, taken January 6th through January 9th, showed Obama well ahead, 39%-26%. 70 pledged delegates are at stake here, and Obama is favored.
D.C. primary, February 12th: No polls from D.C., but Obama did win the caucuses 519 to 271. I'll take that as a sign that Obama is heavily favored in this contest where 15 pledged delegates are at stake.
Virginia primary, February 12th: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Obama is also heavily favored in Virginia. A newly released poll from Insider Advantage shows Obama ahead 52%-37%, and a Survey USA poll from January showed Obama ahead 59%--37%. Clinton is campaigning here, but this certainly looks like all Obama. 83 pledged delegates are at stake
Obviously, Obama looks really good over the next five days, where 360 pledged delegates are at stake, total. The goal for Clinton, I think, is to limit the damage by winning a state or two (possibly Maine or Virginia?), and keeping Obama's pledged delegate lead under 100, thus giving her the perception of an "overall" delegate lead. Currently, my latest pledged delegate count is Obama 896, Clinton 878, with 18 delegates still outstanding form Super Tuesday. In order to take a pledged delegate lead of 100 or more, Obama needs 230 of the 378 pledged delegates floating around between now and Tuesday. Unless he scores a 2-1 blowout in Washington, I doubt he will win quite that many. Still, when Obama's delegate total, even with super delegates included, becomes higher than Clinton's after February 19th, I wonder if news outlets will start to pay attention to the super delegate issue.
