Dow Jones

Weekly Audit: A Tale of Two Economies

by: The Media Consortium

Tue Oct 20, 2009 at 11:32

By Zach Carter, Media Consortium Blogger

The U.S. economy has diverged: Wall Street is living high on the hog, while everyone else is struggling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed 10,000 for the first time since last October this week, even as unemployment continues to spiral out of control. And while President Barack Obama has taken some very real steps to help ordinary people, his administration's efforts to save Wall Street have far outstripped their support of workers.

Matthew Rothschild details these disparities for The Progressive. Regulatory reforms are moving through Congress at a snail's pace and the wreckage from the mortgage bubble is increasing. Wage cuts are more widespread today than in any era since the Great Depression, even as bankers capitalize on taxpayer bailouts to score epic profits and outsized bonuses.

"One economy is for the rich and the upper middle class," Rothschild writes. "The other economy is for everybody else."

So how can a few big banks make so much money while the rest of the economy suffers? As Kevin Drum explains for Mother Jones, the kind of banking that helps the economy is a pretty simple business of taking deposits and making loans. But a lot of what we now call "banking" really just consists of making bets on just about anything you can dream up.

"Banks aren't using all this cheap money to increase lending.  They're using it to fund bigger and bigger bets in the fixed-income sector - the same sector that brought us junk bonds, credit default swaps, subprime loan securitization, interest rate carries, collateralized debt obligations, and all the rest of Warren Buffett's 'financial weapons of mass destruction.'"

The banks, in other words, are gambling with taxpayer money. A host of big finance companies have reported earnings in the past week, and the numbers are ugly: JPMorgan Chase reaped $3.59 billion in third-quarter profits and Goldman Sachs is planning to payout $23 billion in bonuses from speculative trading, while Bank of America and Citigroup are hemorraging money on mortgages and credit cards. The Wall Street casino is alive and well, but anything that is actually tied to the real economy is a disaster.

According to a new report from the U.S. Treasury, lending among the largest recipients of the Troubled Asset Relief Program fell by 17% from July to August. Small businesses can't cope with the cutoff in financing. A lot of businesses stay profitable over the long-term by borrowing money to meet short-term expenses. A baker can borrow money to buy flour and pay the bank back when she sells her bread. With bank lending on ice and consumers cutting back on spending, many small businesses are failing. Thousands more will be at risk in the next couple of years while unemployment remains elevated.

Writing for Salon, former Clinton Secretary of Labor Robert Reich notes that these economic struggles are not reflected in major stock indices. Stock are soaring as big corporations who don't need bank loans score short-term profits from cost-cutting, i.e., mass layoffs. Obviously, this strategy can't work for very long. When millions of Americans are out of work, they can't afford to buy the things companies make.

There's an important lesson in our current economic state-of-affairs, as Katrina vanden Heuvel emphasizes for The Nation. The bailout has not done what Henry Paulson told us it would do. To be sure, it saved the banks-- even the strongest banks would have failed last fall without extraordinary government support. But it has not increased lending and kept the economy from disaster. The Obama administration, which has extended the Bush administration's support for bank balance sheets and bonus checks, is facing a political nightmare if it doesn't show produce some stronger economic results for ordinary citizens.

"Heading into 2010, the Obama administration must put itself back on the side of working people," vanden Heuvel writes.

The administration must address two critical problems in order to restore the nation's economic credibility. Putting the unemployed back to work is at the top of the list. Anything that saves jobs will help, including aid to states to keep teachers and cops on government payrolls and tax credits for companies that hire new full-time workers.

Something must also be done about the foreclosure epidemic. Nothing underscores our economic disparity like continuing housing mess, which has been in full-blown crisis mode since 2006. Despite a multi-trillion-dollar bank bailout, foreclosures are surging to all-time highs. Writing for The American Prospect, Tim Fernholz details the prolonged problems with the Obama administration's current foreclosure relief program.

While millions of troubled borrowers are eligible for the plan, which reduces monthly mortgage payments to affordable levels, foreclosures are still outpacing loan relief efforts by more than two-to-one.

Banks are dragging their feet and the administration has imposed no penalties on lenders who don't live up to the program's standards. Instead, the Treasury Department is offering banks cash incentives to keep people in their homes. Bank of America, which has received $45 billion in direct government bailout funds, plus hundreds of billions in government guarantees and other perks, has modified merely 11% of the mortgages it controls that are eligible for the plan.

Fernholz offers several potential improvements to Obama's foreclosure relief plan, including more aggressive government policing of the current plan and allowing foreclosed homeowners to continue to live in their homes as renters. With up to 12 million foreclosures projected by the end of 2012, just about anything the administration does will help.

The economy is a measure of social well-being, not a stock market index or a corporate earnings statement. Policymakers need to prove they can respond to the very real needs of all their citizens, not just those with financial clout.

This post features links to the best independent, progressive reporting about the economy by members of The Media Consortium. It is free to reprint. Visit the Audit for a complete list of articles on economic issues, or follow us on Twitter. And for the best progressive reporting on critical economy, environment, health care and immigration issues, check out The Mulch, The Pulse and The Diaspora. This is a project of The Media Consortium, a network of leading independent media outlets.

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Weekly Audit: Why the Current Stimulus Plan Isn't Enough

by: The Media Consortium

Tue Apr 07, 2009 at 09:31

by Zach Carter, TMC MediaWire Blogger  

The U.S. economy just keeps getting worse. Given the absolute pummeling the job market has taken over the past five months, we're going to need some much stronger medicine than policymakers are currently proposing. It's increasingly clear that President Obama's stimulus plan was devised for a far milder downturn, and this week we received further evidence of the recession's high human cost.  

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The Market Declares Winners and Losers

by: tremayne

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 18:49

Today the Dow Jones was up almost 500 points and that means Tim Geithner and Barack Obama are geniuses. I went to Sean Hannity's site expecting a tribute to our market-moving heroes and all I found was an ad for a Reagan movie produced by Newt Gingrich and a 2012 election countdown clock. Not sure why they're counting down the days to another ass kicking but they are. Seems they're just conceding the 2010 races because there's no countdown for that.

So I went to Rush Limbaugh's site to see if he was tipping his hat to the President but it seems he is still talking about Obama's Special Olympics flub and may have overlooked the greatest day in Dow 2009 history. Wait, isn't he the guy who mimicked Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's symptoms? Yup.

The biggest drag on the market is still the Fox Business Channel which continues to pull the market in a predominantly negative direction. On Oct. 14, 2007, the day before their debut, the Dow stood at 14,093. The next day Fox Business goes on and the market drops 100 points. That was a key indicator of the negative power of Fox Business News. Every week since the market has lost an average of almost 100 points.We won't get a full Dow recovery until we get Fox Business Channel off the air. We need a countdown clock for that.

Amazing the things that can move the Dow!

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How Obama Controls the Dow Jones

by: tremayne

Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:39

Lately there's been a lot of talk about how Barack Obama is responsible for the Dow Jones average and the generally bearish market we're in. This is an oversimplification of the situation because it doesn't explain how he does it.  Conservative critics just assume because the market is generally going down that it must be doing that just because Obama is President.

The evidence for how Obama does it is right before your eyes. The picture above is from an event yesterday. Notice that the President is wearing a red tie. That is the key to Obama's control of the markets. Yesterday the Dow went up about 280 points.

Now, this photo is from the stem cell order signing on Monday. Obama, as he often does, is wearing a blue tie. On Monday the markets went down. Obama's preference for blue ties is having an unfortunate effect on our economy. Still, he sometimes he goes for the red:

Here's Obama addressing Congress last month. Red tie, huge market rally that day! 

So there you have it. It's not Obama's Presidency causing the bear market but his general preference for blue ties. I hope this clears things up.

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It looks like the McCampaign Surge is over...

by: btchakir

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:26

The NY Times thinks the momentum has shifted back to Obama:
Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support -- particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate -- but the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest... the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among female voters in general. White women are evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.

Here's the overview:

The main reason for the shift, of course, is the economy, which has brought us back from discussing the kinds of makeup worn by pigs to actual issues. Yhis from Politico:

So far this week, the prominence of economic issues on the campaign trail has appeared to work to the benefit of Obama and Biden. Their tracking poll numbers have ticked up - on Wednesday Gallup showed Obama with his first lead since the Republican convention- as the two Democrats have aggressively attacked McCain's support for economic policies they say helped precipitate the current economic turbulence.
The continued drop in the stock market won't make it any better for the McCain campaign, given his history as a deregulator who, with his buddies Gramm and Greenspan, set up the venue for Wall St.'s fall. Here's where the Dow ended yesterday:

47 Days to go and the fight is getting intense!

Under The LobsterScope

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