With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.
In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.
In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast. Also, something is fishy in Alaska, with the Alaska House and Senate races both far outperforming their polling.
Among Better Democrats, Alan Grayson, Eric Massa, Joshua Segall, Tom Perriello, and Gary Peters have all won. Plus, Jim Martin, Al Franken, Mark Begich, Jeff Merkley and Darcy Burner are still in close campaigns. With only five losses so far, that is a very high winning percentage for an all-challenger page. We even scored the night's biggest Democratic upset in Perriello, plus Florida trend-buster Alan Grayson (the only Florida Democratic challenger to win). Both are hard proof that progressive campaigns can succeed, even in red districts.
When it comes to my forecasts, I'm telling you--if it weren't for those pesky kids in Indiana, I'd be on pace for a Mac Book in the Daily Kos contest. Without Obama's victory in Indiana, I would still be 100% tonight, across all Presidential, Senate and House campaigns. I had Obama at 353 (I only changed my final NC forecast after the contest deadline), Democrats at 260 House seats, and 57-40-2 in the Senate with a run-off in Georgia. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm getting good at this election forecasting thing. It is certainly lucky to find unexpected talents later in life.
All around, an excellent night. This is an omnibus thread for all remaining results. Broader, deeper thoughts, along with the path forward, coming later. For now, go Darcy!
It is becoming increasingly clear that the real battle in this election is Obama vs. the media.
(Most of you know the content of the next 3 paras - after all, here and DailyKos is where I understood this from. But there is some hopefully interesting stuff about action later.)
As many have pointed out, one simple explanation for the lack of a VP bounce and poor polling numbers (adding onto race and other themes mentioned in the Chris Bowers frustration thread) is that the media is working extremely hard to ensure this with the content and style of their coverage. No conspiracy theory needed: this is the result of the intersection of corporatization and media infiltration.
Corporatization has trimmed news budgets, replacing real coverage with "analysis". It has created pressure to "keep races close" and conflated news with entertainment. This has ultimately created a culture where the media is the story, abetted by the public's lapping up of entertainment junk food over real nutrition.
This has been heavily abetted a very strong rightwing media infiltration effort. They started by moving the window by complaining about liberal media, but have also driven liberal journalists out of the media with pressure tactics abetted by corporate ownership, largely taken over PBS, created FOX, facilitated conglomeration etc. They have infiltrated the media system with right wingers, and made them look reasonable by also adding hate radio extreme right wingers. This is a long range systemic change in the structure of media, complementary to the more visible Supreme Court infiltration. The Pentagon generals were only the tip of the iceberg (and no accident that the story gained little traction).
The cycle is complete with the "Beltway wisdom" dynamic where they pick up each other's frames and narratives.
I have been meaning to draw up a system dynamics diagram of this cycle of influences, but haven't got round to it. If there is interest, will try and get it done in the next few days.
Of course Obama and other Dems are aware of it. This is likely a major reason the Obama campaign is so extremely heavily invested in the ground game. They know it is their best chance to counter this media problem in the short term.
The real question is, what can the netroots do about it?
Direct pushback is part of the answer, but the response to it is likely to be cosmetic changes that create only the sense of fairness (false balance, the same game that is already being played) - a few more articles will come out, but the fundamental dynamics will not shift.
The Fournier story is one opportunity. Extreme coordinated pushback across the netroots may have some effect, but again, it is likely to be semi-cosmetic (at the most, removing Fournier, which will help only a little bit).
A different lever is to work directly with local media. Compile a strong case against Fournier, take it to every local newspaper (needs coordinated push across the netroots). Most will laugh it off, but some (the most fairminded / independent / liberal) might be persuaded to run a story about it, or even better, add a disclaimer to their AP political articles: this story represents the views of the AP, not necessarily this paper. If even a few dozen local papers did it, that would be a HUGE story eventually, giving the opportunity to make the larger case.
A complementary activist opportunity is to create a series of well-researched factual articles on the major issues: tax cuts, healthcare, Iraq, constitution etc. Write them not in a partisan way, but as genuine unbiased pieces that real journalists would write. Then run each by factcheck.org (they will do it on request, right? Get the articles published by HuffPo or someone if necessary, then get it factchecked). Once these articles are ready with the factcheck certification, offer it to each local paper as a free series. Most, especially the smaller ones in small towns and rural areas, will be happy to get high quality free material. Even if they publish it as Democrat opinion pieces, it will still be an opportunity to get facts in front of voters, in a different form than if they came directly from a campaign.
And of course, contribute to the ground game.
Just my thoughts on how one can counter a propaganda machine. Don't know how much of it is practical. Will definitely require the creation of a Netroots Media Coalition.
McCain is obviously hinging his whole campaign on his POW time in Vietnam, with this spot closing with 'An American President Americans Have Been Waiting for'. This is a frequent tool he deploys when he speaks with the press, saying things like 'I haven't been questioned this hard since Hanoi'.
I can't help but think that it's a foolish narrative. 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 all saw the candidate without military service elected over the candidate who had served, in several cases heroically.
I decided to take a little closer look at this phenomenon. Obviously, the war hero turned President narrative is ingrained in our history. People like George Washington, Ulysses S. Grant, and Dwight Eisenhower rode their wartime popularity to political success. In election campaigns, candidates like to use their wartime experience to prove to the public they know something about sacrifice, fortitude, public service, steely resolve, judgment, or any other number of character traits candidates think the American people care about.
Whether veterans actually end up getting elected more often over their non-serving opponents is another question.
Looking back at the elections since 1948 (the election after FDR died), the picture is much more mixed. Below is a chart of the candidates and winners of each election, with their veteran status noted. For the purposes of this chart, veteran means serving overseas, which disqualifies candidates like George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.
Year
Democratic Candidate
Republican Candidate
Winner
2004
John Kerry (veteran)
George W. Bush
George W. Bush
2000
Al Gore (veteran)
George W. Bush
George W. Bush
1996
Bill Clinton
Bob Dole (veteran)
Bill Clinton
1992
Bill Clinton
George H.W. Bush (veteran)
Bill Clinton
1988
Michael Dukakis (veteran)
George H.W. Bush (veteran)
George H.W. Bush (veteran)
1984
Walter Mondale
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
1980
Jimmy Carter (veteran)
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
1976
Jimmy Carter (veteran)
Gerald Ford (veteran)
Jimmy Carter (veteran)
1972
George McGovern (veteran)
Richard Nixon (veteran)
Richard Nixon (veteran)
1968
Hubert Humphrey
Richard Nixon (veteran)
Richard Nixon (veteran)
1964
Lyndon Johnson
Barry Goldwater (veteran)
Lyndon Johnson
1960
John F. Kennedy (veteran)
Richard Nixon (veteran)
John F. Kennedy (veteran)
1956
Adlai Stevenson
Dwight D. Eisenhower (veteran)
Dwight D. Eisenhower (veteran)
1952
Adlai Stevenson
Dwight D. Eisenhower (veteran)
Dwight D. Eisenhower (veteran)
1948
Harry Truman (veteran)
Thomas Dewey
Harry Truman (veteran)
As you can see, a veteran candidate has beaten their non-veteran opponent only four times since 1948, whereas a non-veteran candidate has beaten their veteran opponent six times. (Lyndon Johnson really can't be called a veteran, even though he received the Silver Star.)
Moreover, there is a pretty clear pattern over time from 1948 to 2004. While veteran candidates like Eisenhower and Truman beat their non-veteran opponents in the years directly after WWII, in more recent times, non-veterans have been winning. The last time a veteran (Nixon) beat a non-veteran (Humphrey) was 1968.
The reason for this change is unclear, but I can speculate: Veteran candidates were winning after WWII, which was largely seen as a just, righteous, and even popular war. During Vietnam - a war Americans were deeply ambivalent about - a veteran beat a non-veteran once and vice-versa. Since then, in America's relative time of peace (the Iraq debacle notwithstanding), non-veterans have been winning over veteran opponents handily.
Based on this data, it is doubtful John McCain's status as a "war hero" will significantly boost his campaign. While America is indeed involved in a very bloody war in Iraq, I don't think many Americans feel a deep connection with it - especially a positive one. Iraq is very unpopular, and on top of that, by and large Americans have not been asked to sacrifice for the war effort like they were during WWII and Vietnam. So, recently, while many Presidential candidates are veterans, they don't seem to get elected more often over their non-veterans opponents.
For the American people these days, it's less about a candidate's war biography than their policies and how they run their races - and that bodes ill for the old, unstable, and out-of-touch John McCain.
The History News Network published the following article by me on September 23, 2002. As my oldest son approaches eighteen, I still don't want him to die in an unjust quagmire. It's wrong for Washington politicians to continue using our brave men and women as political props. It's up to us to lead them home with honor.
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Every school child can recite the value of history: those that ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. What lessons can we learn about the present Iraqi crisis from the Vietnam experience?
There are plenty of great Democrats out there running for Congress in 2008. Charlie Brown (www.charliebrownforcongress.org) out in California's 4th is an honorable man who served this country for 26 years in the USAF and wants to bring the same integrity he learned in the service to the House of Representatives. Dan Grant (www.dangrantforcongress.com) out in Texas' 10th District around Austin is a fresh face with a brilliant mind that will serve this country well. Darcy Burner (www.darcyburner.com) is a self-made woman out in Washington's 8th fighting the noble fight to bring fairness to Congress.
All of these men and women are great candidates, but there's one out there who deserves a close look by everyone on the blogs. Glenn Nye is a newcomer to the political world, but he has experience and insight that is desperately needed to move this country forward. As a diplomat and development expert, Nye has traveled the world to bring about the positive change this country should be standing for. From Iraq to Afghanistan to Singapore, Glenn Nye has worked with the State Department and USAID to help work on the myriad of crises this ever-shrinking world faces.
As a child I was raised to believe that Christmas is a time of comfort and joy. Jesus, the Prince of Peace, arrived in the world preaching a gospel of love.
It's time for us to stop this childish behavior. Our children will NOT be used to steal oil.
We can do better. We must do better.
Please join me this holiday season and renew the true meaning of Christmas. No more wars for oil. No more torture. No more worshiping at the altar of crony capitalism. America has always been stronger, prouder and more secure when we've exported hope and inspiration.
As Americans we have many reasons to give thanks this Thanksgiving Holiday. We've benefited from a country built upon shared prosperity and the courage to face our problems head-on. The story of the first Thanksgiving celebration reminds us why we must act now to preserve and protect our quality of life.
In November 1620 the pilgrims arrived in a new world confident of their success. Believing God had blessed them, they thought that they couldn't fail. But the pilgrims soon discovered that they didn't know how to survive in this new environment.
Humbled, they turned to their neighbors, a people that the pilgrims considered heathens and savages. The Wampanoag taught the pilgrims how to change direction and survive. The Native Americans taught the pilgrims how to grow corn and hunt local game. In November 1621 these two peoples sat down together and broke bread, celebrating the pilgrims' first successful harvest.
Bountiful harvests became the foundation for America's shared prosperity. Today climate change threatens our quality of life. Rising temperatures, caused by greenhouse gases, could devastate Texas agriculture. If carbon emissions remain unchecked we could see Texas agriculture decline by more than 25%.
We must learn the lesson of that first Thanksgiving celebration and change our direction.
Today at noon, citizens of Indiana's 6th Congressional District, who are also MoveOn members, gathered in front of the Anderson, Indiana office of Congressman Mike Pence.
There were groups all around the country doing similar protests at their local Congressperson's office.
I was at today's 6th District protest, I am the Democratic Candidate for this seat and the rest is below
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