Several elections tonight. In the Iowa 3rd, we have Bush Dog incumbent Boswell vs. progressive challenger Ed Fallon. In New Jersey, we have Incumbent, machine-bakced, but generally progressive Frank Lautenberg vs. corporate challenger Andrews. And, of course, we have the final presidential primaries in Montana and South Dakota. I will begin live-blogging returns here at Open Left at 8 p.m., when the first polls close in South Dakota and all polls close in New Jersey. All polls close in Montana and South Dakota at 9 p.m. eastern. Polls close in the Iowa 3rd at 10 p.m., eastern.
What Is At Stake Tonight
Momentum. Currently, Barack Obama is precisely tied with John McCain in national polls, and effectively tied with McCain at the state, electoral college level. The ideal scenario for Obama to pick up momentum this week is to win both primaries tonight, reach the magic number tomorrow, and for Clinton to give her "acknowledging reality" speech on Thursday. That would give Obama three consecutive positive days of press coverage, and allow the nomination campaign to end on a positive note for the nominee.
The nightmare scenario for Obama is if he actually loses one of the two primaries tonight. As unlikely as it seems, this is actually possible. Poblano predicts Obama to win South Dakota by only 5%, and ARG predicts Obama to only win Montana by 4%. (Granted, Poblano predicts a Montana blowout while ARG predicts a South Dakota blowout.) Given that the Clinton's have been campaigning in the two states much harder than the Obama's, it is not out of the realm of the possible for Clinton to sneak out a victory tonight. This would be terrible for Obama, since wrapping up the nomination after a loss is exactly the sort of "stumbling across the line" scenario that has hurt Democrats, such as Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter, in the past. So, a double victory for Obama tonight, while not important in terms of winning the nomination, is important in terms of positioning for the general election.
More of what is at stake, along with my personal predictions, tonight in the extended entry.
There's a primary going on in New Jersey between Rob Andrews, a conservative business oriented Democrat from South Jersey, and Frank Lautenberg, and old and liberal Senator. Andrews is frustrated that he's going nowhere, and the South Jersey machine is feeling its oats and taking on North Jersey. It's portrayed as young versus old or North versus South, but the reality is, policy-wise, it's conservative versus liberal. And Andrews knows it, which is why he's trying to portray himself as identical to Lautenberg on the issues, only younger and more vital.
In a interview, Andrews did not want to characterize his political philosophy. "People we represent don't care what label we have. They care whether we are getting the job done, and I'm in the race because people want a change, the country wants a change," he said.
Andrews said he and Lautenberg have mostly the same policy goals, but suggested he has "more energy" to meet the challenges.
Andrews is just lying. Aside from his ridiculous cheerleading on Iraq and his unapologetic support until relatively recently, there's his fealty to corporate interests.
Andrews, for example, joined GOP colleagues in supporting a fence along the Mexican border; backed legislation pushed by banks and credit card companies making it more difficult for people to erase their debts through bankruptcy; supported a constitutional amendment to ban flag burning; voted for the estate tax repeal; and opposed permanent normal trade relations with China.
So Andrews supported the Bankruptcy Bill, a fence along the Mexican border, the Iraq war, and eliminating the estate tax. Other than that, there are no differences, he's just younger.
It is utterly disgusting that Andrews can so cavalierly dismiss real policy differences he has with Lautenberg. If he wants to back putting poor people in hock to credit card companies, he should have the guts to do it instead of lying and pretending he shares the same policy goals as Lautenberg. He doesn't, he never has, and it's reprehensible he would pretend otherwise. Obviously they know their own state quite well, but I would hope that to the extent that they can, progressives in New Jersey work to defeat Andrews.
(This was a weird fight. - promoted by Matt Stoller)
New Jersey Congressman Rob Andrews's strategy to defeat incumbent US Senator Frank Lautenberg in the Democratic primary is simple. First, he must carry carry massive pluralities in South Jersey, where he has both machine support and very high popularity. Second, he must garner endorsements, and thus favorable ballot position, from at least two of the large, Democratic-voting counties in North Jersey: Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Middlesex and Union.
When he publicly announced his intention to run for Senate yesterday, Andrews figured he had at least one of these endorsements, namely Bergen County Democratic Chairman Joe Ferriero, in the bag. But before Ferriero could announce his support for Andrews, Bergen County Congressman Steven Rothman (NJ-09) answered Ferriero's small bet on Andrews with a big raise. Rothman, who has made no secret of his own desire to eventually sit in Lautenberg's Senate seat, reportedly threatened to run for re-election to his own House seat off of the county line and alongside Lautenberg and a full slate of County Democratic Committee candidates recruited by progressive State Senator Loretta Weinberg.
Rothman's aggressive move presents Ferriero with a dilemma. Ferriero can cautiously preserve his political power and patronage machine by folding to Rothman. By giving his line to Lautenberg and Rothman, Ferriero would raise a very high hurdle in front of any challengers seeking to unseat his county committee members and freeholders. However, should Ferriero call Rothman's raise, he will provoke a nine-week civil war in the Bergen County party that he may not survive.
Needless to say, Ferriero did not follow through with an Andrews endorsement on Tuesday, and this afternoon, sources close to the Bergen boss are telling New Jersey media that Ferriero will endorse Lautenberg. As of Wednesday afternoon, none of Andrews's other promised North Jersey endorsements have panned out. While Andrews hasn't decided whether or not to challenge Lautenberg yet, Rothman's deftly timed threat has made an Andrews run a lot less likely than it was just 24 hours ago.
You can read more about this story and the New Jersey US Senate race at Blue Jersey.
Today, five of the Republican Presidential candidates are addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition. Senator Frank Lautenberg has asked these candidates to condemn Coulter's recent comments about Jews.
You can condemn Coulter as well by signing this petition.
STATE BLOGS
