Endorsement Season Heats Up

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Dec 17, 2007 at 11:18

• Marie Culver, wife of Iowa Governor Chet Culver, endorses Edwards. In 2004, when Kerry won the endorsement of Tom Vilsack's wife, it seemed to help him out quite a bit.

• Representative Dave Loebsack, IA-02, endorses Obama. When it comes to the three-way split among the three Iowa Democrats in the U.S. House--Boswell for Clinton, Brayley for Edwards, and Loebsack for Obama--Boswell is a Blue Dog, and Brayley is a New Dem , and Loebsack is in the progressive caucus. So, the three are split in more than just their candidate endorsements.

• Republican Iowa Representative Steve King said he would endorse Romney, but then endorsed Thompson. Romney's campaign officials were even in the room when he made the announcement. I know that I am cheering for Romney on the Republicans side, but this is still pretty funny.

It is difficult to say how much endorsements matter. My guess is that they matter a little bit, but not too much. Even the big ones from last election cycle probably coincided with surges from Edwards and Kerry, rather than causing surges by Edwards and Kerry.

Update Nice insight from Dave Kowalski in the comments:

Looking at the three House members: Braley was President of the Iowa association of trial lawyers.  Natch, he goes for ex-trial lawyer Edwards.  Loebsack is an ex college professor.  Again, makes sense that he goes for the former part time law school instructor Obama.  Boswell is old and ex military.  Hillary is the choice.

I think identity trumped policy here.

Today's "Gag Prize": the GOP Presidential Nomination

by: paulhogarth

Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 11:49

Remember the 1970's game show with Monty Hall called "Let's Make a Deal"?  Contestants on the program would pick a prize behind one of three curtains, and some would inevitably get stuck with a "gag prize" - such as a high chair with a screaming baby, a giant hot water bottle, or a pet donkey.  Today's gag prize is the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination, as the political climate for next year should be very problematic for the G.O.P.  While the Republican presidential field is more fluid this year than the Democratic side, that's because (a) each candidate is seriously flawed, (b) voters aren't happy with any of them, and (c) unless the Democrats really screw up, 2008 should be a terrible year for Republicans.  Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee can enjoy the sudden burst of media attention that his high placement in the polls has garnered, but - assuming he wins the nomination - how much would that prize really be worth?  Nobody should care who wins the Republican nomination, because it probably won't matter much in the end.

Clinton Rising In The General Election, Too

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Oct 14, 2007 at 15:09

George Allen Joins Thompson Campaign

by: neutron

Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 17:43

How ironic that the GREAT WHITE HOPE that is becoming known for making an ass out of himself with moronic statements, has another ass on his staff that lost his election for the same reasons.

Googlebomb Rudy Giuliani Update

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 14:30

Evening Open Thread

by: Adam Bink

Wed Sep 05, 2007 at 23:20

-Will Durst, Laughing Liberally

Anyone watch the Repub debate or Thompson's Tonight Show candidacy announcement?

Republican Announcements

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Aug 31, 2007 at 12:33

1. Fred Thompson To Announce Candidacy at 12:01 a.m. on September 6th
   Fred Thompson will announce his candidacy at 12:01 a.m. on Thursday, September 6th in front of the dumpster in the parking lot of the Chick-fil-A on Bush River Road in Columbia, South Carolina. Click here for directions on how to attend. Why 12:01 a.m. on September 6th? This way, he doesn't have to file a campaign finance report until January 31st

   If Thompson waits until September 6 to formally declare his candidacy, he wouldn't have to disclose any of the cash given to his campaign until January 31 -- after many major contests are over, including the Iowa and Nevada Caucuses, and the New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida primaries.

   Why is he choosing that particular Chick-fil-A to make this announcement? Well, Chick-fil-A is owned by major right-wing donors, South Carolina is a key early state, Bush road has a nice ring to it, and that franchise also is easily accessible from routes 20,.26, and 126. Also, the Chick-fil-A's near the college and universities in Columbia will be swarming with drunk 20 year olds that time of night.

2. VA-Sen: Awaiting Word From Warner
   At 2pm today, John Warner will announce if he is seeking another term in the Senate, or if he is retiring. According to the Examiner, he is retiring. If he does retire, and if Mark Warner runs for the open seat, as has been widely rumored, this would immediately become a top Democratic pickup opportunity. Even without Virginia, Democrats already seem to have at least five other good pickup opportunities in Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine.
   
   
3. ID-Sen: Larry Craig expected to retire soon
   To no one's surprise, Larry Craig is receiving a huge amount of pressure to resign, and probably will either today or tomorrow. The homophobic double standard between Vitter and Craig would usually allow me to have some sympathy for Craig, except that the guy is so homophobic himself that I can't be moved to care at all.

I will provide updates in this space when more information is available on Warner's decision.

Update: Tony Snow is stepping down, too. Apparently, he didn't make enough money serving as press secretary.

Update 2: John Warner is retiring. Virginia now has an open seat in the US Senate for 2008. If Mark Warner runs, this becomes a clear Democratic pickup chance.

Notes on the Republican Field

by: brklyngrl

Mon Aug 27, 2007 at 00:34

I take a look how Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and McCain are doing in the extended text.

Monday Evening Election Round-Up

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 22:30

1. Lane Hudson Busts Fred Thompson
   Fellow blogger Lane Hudson has filed an FEC complaint on Fred Thompson, arguing that Thompson has violating the "testing the waters" provision of FEC law in several ways. These violations include:
   • Raising $72,000 for the general election.
     
   • Using money for advertising, specifically Google Ad words
     
   • Repeatedly referring to himself as a candidate for President, even though he continues to raise money only for an exploratory committee
     
   • Signing long-term leases on office space.
   
   Some of these charges clearly have merit, as they have raised red flags from FEC commissioners and election lawyers. It is also receiving a lot of press, as you can see here, here and here. The press surrounding this matter will continue to grow tomorrow. Stay tuned.
   
   
2. Entering Act Two of the Presidential Primaries
   Mystery Pollster takes a deeper look into the question of when we can expect more movement in national and early state polls. He argues that the first stage, or "Act One," took place during the announcement period from December though March, which was indeed a time when we saw some real poll movement. While things have been static for a while, he notes that stage two is now thoroughly underway, and so that could change:

   In Act Two, the candidates begin saturation television advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire and perhaps a few other early states. This process begins to reach those voters who are less attentive to politics and can move numbers more dramatically for candidates who begin with less recognition. Act Two of the 2008 race started early for Mitt Romney and Bill Richardson (thus producing upward movement for both in Iowa and New Hampshire), but appears to be getting underway for most of the other candidates right about now. So it will be interesting to watch the round of early state surveys in September and October to whether greater exposure to all of the candidates changes perceptions and preferences.

   Every Democratic candidate, except Kucinich and Gravel is now on the air in the early states, so Act Two is in full swing. As such, the next set of polls will indeed be very telling of where the campaign will be heading through at least the middle of November. The trends we see in September will likely continue through at least October. Act Three begins when the negative ads start, which typically is about five or six weeks before Iowa. Remember that in 2003, Dean was able to take the lead during "Act Two," but fell apart when the arrows started flying his way in Act Three (the "murder suicide" with Gephardt, among other things).

3. Giuliani Spent Twice As Much Time At Yankees Games
   From Salon, via Political Wire:

   By our count, Giuliani spent about 58 hours at Yankees games or flying to them in the 40 days between Sept. 25 and Nov. 4, roughly twice as long as he spent at ground zero in the 60 days between Sept. 17 and Dec. 16. By his own standard, Giuliani was one of the Yankees more than he was one of the rescue workers.

   I remember watching a lot of baseball immediately after September 11th, too. It was a good way to avoid depression. However, I was just a lowly graduate student and English teacher who was shocked at the direction the nation was turning following those terrible attacks and whose girlfriend was out of the country. I was not Mayor of New York City. And I don't even like the Yankees, anyway.

4. Obama Slows Debate Schedule, Then Rocks A Debate
   At MyDD, Todd Beeton notes that almost immediately after Barack Obama said he wouldn't debate anymore, he is now being credited with an excellent debate performance by most pundits. He also seems to be receiving positive reviews from pundits for deciding to not accept anymore debate appearances than he has already made. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of Obama's move, since it is always difficult to cast canceling possible campaign appearances in a positive light. Then again, I think most major Democratic constituencies already have held candidate forums, so he isn't really dissing anyone while simultaneously avoiding potential future political difficulties by individually telling certain groups "no." Also, this means that any potentially revised Fox News debate really is dead. There is no way Edwards or Clinton will show up at a Fox News debate if Obama won't, given the potential netroots backlash that would come if they do.
   
   
5. Why I'm Not Jumping In With Dodd Or Kucinich
   Since my declaration yesterday that I would not be joining up with either Dodd or Kucinich's campaigns as a way of trying to change the focus of the primary toward of substantive policy discussions, some people have asked me why.  To be as simple as I can, Dodd has already been on the air in New Hampshire, and simply has not seen the same upward movement from his advertising that Richardson did.  In other words, I don't think Dodd has any traction, and I don't think I would change that. Second, as far as Kucinich goes, basically I am in agreement with what Markos wrote back in February, except for the part about Kucinich refusing to sell the local power company.
   
   
6. Rove Had Nothing To Do With Kerry Being the Nominee
   There has been a lot of buzz about a recent LA Times article that claims Karl Rove and Matthew Dowd masterminded John Kerry's rise to the Democratic nomination in 2004. Apparently, the theory is that Rove and Dowd used reverse psychology on the Democratic base, by attacking the candidate they feared less, Kerry, in order to drive the Democratic base to Kerry instead of Edwards. Here is my simply response to this: What-fucking-ever. The idea that this played any role in Kerry becoming the Democratic nominee is absurd. As Pollster.com shows, that ship had already sailed by "late January" when supposedly rove and Dowd began messing with our feeble minds:
   
   

   So, when exactly did the great wave of effectively anti-Kerry attacks from the Bush campaign start? Was it during the week after the Iowa caucuses when Dean was facing character assassination over the "scream," and when Kerry was riding a huge wave of post-Iowa momentum after that win? If it wasn't during that one week, then it didn't matter, as that was when all of the meaningful movement in national polls took place (Kerry went up 30, and Dean went down 15). In fact, if it was during that week, it didn't matter either, because the only news stories that week were about Kerry's victory and Dean's scream. The idea that Karl Rove had any impact on this is nonsense, as is the idea that they are having any impact on the 2008 Democratic nomination campaign.

This is an open thread on elections.

Saturday Election Round-up Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Aug 18, 2007 at 15:00

1. Thompson Derided On First Iowa Visit
   With the Iowa caucuses now, quite possibly, only sixteen weeks away, Fred Thompson is already being derided for finally making his first visit to Iowa. For example, he was ripped by Fox News. Also, CQ politics:

   Too little and too late is what they're saying in Iowa about Fred Thompson's first trip there today as a possible presidential contender.(…)
   
   Already, his schedule for today in Des Moines is drawing criticism as off the mark. The Des Moines Register notes that Thompson most needs to begin a meaningful dialogue with voters. But after reviewing his planned emphasis on photo-ops and private meetings with GOP leaders, the state's largest newspaper concludes that "he will have hardly begun that task by the time he leaves Iowa this afternoon."

   It is starting to seem very unlikely that Fred Thomspon will be able to seriously compete in Iowa, which in turn makes it less likely that he can compete in New Hampshire, which in turn makes it less likely that he can compete in Michigan, which in turn makes it less likely that he can compete in South Carolina, which in turn make sit less likely that he can compete in Florida, etc.  At this point, he has the resources to make a stand in only one state.  Although for a while the question for Republicans was whether an alternative to "Rudy McRomney" would emerge in the primaries, now the Republican nomination might very well be Romney's to lose. Maybe Gingrich can still be the Republican nominee.

2. Bloomberg Definitely Out?
   Dan Rather says that Michael Bloomberg told him on august 9th that he was not going to run for President in 2008 under any circumstances:

   Mr. Rather: Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York, told me that he was not going to run for president. In a direct answer to a direct question, would he run under any circumstances, he danced around a bit and finally said 'No.' Furthermore, he said he wasn't open to even considering running as a vice presidential candidate with anybody, and he wouldn't take a place in anybody's cabinet."

   Darn. I kind of hope Rather is wrong here. A Bloomberg run would make an already favorable Democratic electoral scene in 2008 even more favorable, as every poll with Bloomberg in the race shows he draws more support from Republicans than Democrats. Further, it would have the advantage of potentially exposing the DLC as a third-party splinter group, since much of their leadership is behind a Bloomberg run. I also like the idea of seeing billionaire centrist heroes like Bloomberg get waxed in the general election, thus showing LieberDems they have no real national base.

3. House Retirement Watch
   Swing State Project looks at this week's rash of Republican House retirements, and compares it to this point in the cycle in 2006.

   At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty.  Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office.  While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year(…)
   
   However, of these five, four are "straight-up" retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too.  Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well.

   To put it one way, in 2006, House Democrats benefited from Republican electoral hubris. Back then, there were more open seats at this point on the Republican side, but that was because so many House Republicans declared for higher office, which they almost all ended up losing. At this point, there are more "straight-up" retirements, and this is a trend we could see continue as more Republicans decide that being in the minority in the House isn't very fun.

4. We Don't Want Your Votes
   Paul Waldman discusses how Republican attacks on immigrants, currently fueled by Mitt Romney himself, is quickly moving the GOP to minority status over the long term:

   One of the early spats (and just you wait -- the GOP race hasn't even begun to get nasty, but it absolutely will) found Mitt Romney attacking Rudy Giuliani, saying that when he was mayor, "New York was the poster child for sanctuary cities." Though Romney was technically incorrect (New York never actually declared itself a sanctuary city, though it was, and is, one in all but name), the attack hit its mark.(…)
   

   [W]hen a party says again and again that you and people like you are the biggest problem facing the country, it's hard to muster up enthusiasm for its candidates. If the GOP keeps this up, Latino Republicans could become like gay Republicans, a tiny, beleaguered group waging a daily battle against cognitive dissonance, scapegoated by their own party and mocked by their friends for associating with people who despise them.
   

   And it is already happening. In 2004, John Kerry won the Latino vote by 58-40 percent, a healthy 18-point margin. Since he lost the overall popular vote by 3 points, this means that Kerry outperformed his national numbers among Latinos by 21 points. In 2006, however, Latinos voted for Democratic congressional candidates by an overwhelming 69-30 percent, or 39 points. With Democrats winning the overall House vote nationally by 52-46 percent, Democrats outperformed among Latinos by 33 points.

   It is not just Latinos and the LGBT community. Conservative attacks on numerous minorities are quickly making the Republican party a minority itself. For example, Arab-Americans were long a swing vote in the country, but in the wake of anti-Arab rhetoric and policies from conservatives after 9/11, they now favor Democrats by 30 points. Constantly scapegoating minorities might work for a while, but when the majority of the country becomes non-white and or non-Christian, it is electoral suicide. Check out the Open Left demographics archive for more on this.

This is an open thread on elections.