And state Senator Regina Thomas loses badly by a little over 50 points, 76.3% to 23.7%. Thomas, like Fallon, just didn't believe in running a modern campaign with polling, mail, and paid media. Thomas was well-known in Savannah, her district, but she was outspent by $800k to $20k or so, a factor of 40. And Barrow was endorsed by Obama.
The key is to make sure that candidates run modern campaigns and use all tools at their disposal. Neither Fallon nor Thomas did that. They both had the attitude that the public was with them, because they were reactive to the activists backing them and did not reach out beyond that circle. This is a fairly common myopic view from community activists or state politicians who launch into expensive Federal races.
Organizing and politics is very hard. It is useful to understand how tough it is to communicate well with a primary universe, even in a strong year for change.
Today is primary day in Georgia. I expect progressive state Senator and Better Democrat candidate Regina Thomas to be blown out by John Barrow for two reasons. One, Obama endorsed Barrow, a very significant setback for Thomas's chances. She was banking on a change message, and the primary messenger of change has endorsed her opponent. Two, she did not raise money and is not running a professionalized campaign. Her bet is that she and her family can work their personal networks and the churches to drive turnout in a low energy primary against John Barrow. While she has some reach, in any district there's a reason that mail firms exist and radio and TV are important. Barrow is sitting on more than a million dollars in cash, and has been running ads and doing voter contact. This was similar to Leonard Boswell and Ed Fallon; the campaign did not use a credible voter file, and so their numbers were way off.
That's not a statement on Fallon or Thomas; it is brave to run a primary campaign, and very people will help you. Donna Edwards couldn't get good consultants her first race in 2006. But it is something that needs to be fixed.
Even though she is unlikely to win, I'm a contributor to Thomas, just as I gave to Ed Fallon before her. One of my biggest regrets in 2006 was not supporting Marcy Winograd, who really gave Jane Harman a run for her money and changed the voting patterns in the district. There's almost no support for primary challengers anywhere in the country; we on the internet have the ability to change that equation, but we have a lot of learning to do. I remember three years, from 2004-2006, when the we had to put up with the argument that we couldn't win, until we defeated Lieberman in the primary. And then Lieberman won the general, and Al Wynn narrowly beat Donna Edwards, and I had to hear about how the Congress was composed of conservative Democrats.
And then Donna Edwards crushed Al Wynn, and FISA happened. That fight will be turned into an attempt to revise the Patriot Act in 2009. It's going to take a long time to turn this ship around, but we're doing it. The losses are as important, more important perhaps, than the wins, because that is how we learn. Next cycle, Obama's infrastructure is going to leave a lot of fresh campaign operatives unemployed, and a lot of new talent looking to run for office. There will be people who know how to run a voter file, know how to micro-target, understand field campaigns, and mail, and radio, and TV, and paid media online, and integration with the blogging world. They will have learned this on the Obama campaign, and will be able to deploy these skills elsewhere.
In fact, the energy is clearly there. This cycle, there were primary challenges against John Lewis, Ed Towns, Leonard Boswell, Carolyn Kilpatrick and Dennis Kucinich. Not all those challenges were from the left, but the jostling loose of the incumbent protection racket will in general help progressives. And so it's important to have test runs with people like Regina Thomas and Ed Fallon. Tonight, we'll learn a lot more about how far we have to go.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
Ezra Klein notes that Obama's team of national security experts is fairly conservative. This isn't a shocker. And then there's this.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has taped a radio commercial on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Savannah, who faces a July 15 primary challenge.
It's the first case of Obama involving himself in a local race in Georgia.
Details of when the ad will start airing and where it will be broadcast - the 12th District covers much of east Georgia, including portions of Augusta and Savannah - were not immediately available Wednesday.
But the Obama campaign made clear to my colleague Aaron Sheinin that it sees Barrow, a two-term Democrat, as an important ally. We've got calls into the Barrow campaign, but haven't heard from them yet.
Barrow is one of the most reactionary members of Congress, and he's facing a progressive primary challenger in Regina Thomas. I could go into Barrow's voting record, but you can just watch this ad he ran for his campaign.
70% of the primary voters in GA-12 are African-American. Barrow is white and has $1.3 million, Thomas is a progressive African-American and a state legislator, and has very little money. I don't know what kind of game Obama is playing, but using his remarkable brand to protect conservative Democrats is a move reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi endorsing Al Wynn. If Barrow loses, Obama has a progressive ally in Thomas. If Barrow wins, a conservative House Democrat owes Obama a big favor. It's a no-lose proposition for him.
As Obama consolidates his power within the party, note who he is bringing with him in terms of economic policy and foreign policy, and note who he is protecting politically.
It is up to us to create a progressive check on Obama, and we might just have our first opportunity.
Bush Dog John Barrow in Georgia is facing a primary challenge from state Senator Regina Thomas. Tondee's Tavern has more on the race, quoting Insider Advantage.
Two-term Democrat John Barrow who represents the 12th District (Augusta and Savannah) has drawn a primary challenge from African-American state Senator Regina Thomas. This district's population is 44.5% African American. In this year's Democratic presidential primary African Americans constituted 69.4% of the turnout. In the 2006 summer primary, 66.8 % of the Democratic voters were black. If two-thirds of the voters in this summer's Democratic primary are African American then if Thomas gets three-fourths of that vote, she wins. If she polls 80% of the black vote, she can win if blacks constitute 62.5% of the turnout.
Barrow will have money, Thomas will have grassroots support. He's an archreactionary, as you can see from this ad.
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