Open Left - GA-Sen

Bi-Partisan Talk Not Helping Democrats

Chris Bowers — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 08:33:06 GMT

Democrats have lost the three federal elections since November 4th: Georgia Senate, and the run-offs in Louisiana 2nd and 4th congressional districts. It is pretty easy to explain all of these losses in local ways:

Jim Martin trailed Saxby Chambliss on Election Day, despite a huge voter turnout effort from the Obama campaign. Lacking the same energy, the state reverted to its red-state form.
LA-02: William Jefferson is a famously corrupt member of Congress. Despite the D +28 partisan voting index, what happened in this district is similar to what happened in Tom Delay's old seat, TX-22, in 2006. It is possible for Republicans to win deep blue seats or Democrats to win deep red seats when the favored party is under a cloud of extreme corruption.
LA-04 was a narrow loss, as predicted by non-partisan polls, in a fairly red district. No big deal, really, even if disappointing.

These localized explanations are satisfactory. However, it is also safe to say that the constant talk about the need for bi-partisanship and a "team of rivals" coming from Democrats isn't exactly encouraging Democratic turnout these days.

All three of these elections, especially GA-Sen and LA-02, featured very low Democratic turnout. It probably didn't help that national Democratic leaders, including Barack Obama, are telling everyone, Democrats included, how great it is for Republicans to be included in the federal government. When one of the major parties is telling everyone that it is great when the opposing party wins, then the opposing party is probably going to win.

I'm starting to see a pretty easy path for Republicans to regain power. All they need is, first, for every Democratic leader to keep saying how great it is for Republicans to share power. Next, they need Democrats to keep making people like Robert Gates, instead of Dick Cheney or George Bush, the national face of the Republican Party. Those two messages will keep electing Republicans for years to come, and it will be entirely our own fault.

A Way Forward For Republicans

Chris Bowers — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:45:00 GMT

Looking through recaps of last night's defeat in the Georgia Senate election, I agree with a lot of what Matt, Kos and Nate Silver have written.

Matt argues that it the country hasn't shifted so far to the left that a progressive has a decent shot in a statewide election in Georgia. Rather, we all knew it was always a longshot campaign, and people didn't want to invest in such a difficult election both after big wins in November and with so much other positive news for Democrats. Even Obama didn't invest himself too strongly, not wanting to risk political capital so recently after his election. So, Democratic turnout and activism were both down, making an already underdog campaign virtually impossible to win. I agree: we have moved the country, but a large, stable leftward shift has not yet materialized. We have more work to do.

Kos makes similar points to Matt about the lack of Democratic activist and voter enthusiasm, adding that special election and runoff elections have frequently swum against the dominant political tide. For example, Democrats won the Louisiana runoff in 2003, while Republicans won it in 2007. Republicans won the CA-50 special election in June 2006, but Democrats won the SD-AL and KY-06 special elections in early 2004. In all of those cases, the next federal election turned in the opposite direction. So, perhaps this result doesn't really mean much at all nationally, and is simply local. Again, I agree.

Nate brings up a more disturbing possibility: Democrats are already in the hot seat in the mind of the electorate, and will lose seats in both 2010 and 2012 unless they make real progress turning the country around. In other words, if Democrats can't fix the nation's problems, the country will actually turn back toward Republicans, and there will be no two to four year grace period as I have previously surmised. The reason Nate's thesis is so disturbing is that a new Democracy Corps poll shows he is probably correct.

More in the extended entry.
First, Nate writes:

The Democratic message in 2010 will essentially be one of two things...

1. Obama's accomplished X, Y and Z and showed the country the way forward, let's give him leaders in Congress who can continue to deliver for the middle class, or,

2. Obama accomplished X, but he couldn't accomplish Y and Z because the Republicans obstructed those measures to protect the special interests ... let's put partisanship behind us and elect leaders in Congress who can represent the common good.

Nate is correct about the messaging. That is how Democrats will run in 2010. As such, it is important to note a Democracy Corps poll released today showing that this legislation needs to be passed quickly and produce quick results. Otherwise, two years from now, the country won't still be overwhelmingly blaming Republicans if it doesn't:

Q.32 Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

32 (SPLIT A) I'm more concerned that Congress will prevent Barack Obama from making the kinds of changes he thinks are needed, by playing politics and catering too much to the special interests
OR
I'm more concerned that the Democratic Congress will be too much of a rubber stamp for Barack Obama, and will push through Obama's programs whether they are good or bad

Agree first statement: 42%
Agree second statement: 49%
33 (SPLIT B) I'm more concerned that Republicans in Congress will obstruct Barack
Obama's agenda and prevent him from making the kinds of changes he thinks are needed.
OR
I'm more concerned that Democrats in Congress will be too much of a rubber stamp for Barack Obama, and will push through Obama's programs whether they are good or bad.

Agree first statement: 43%
Agree second statement: 48%

So, last night's results and the Democracy Corps poll showed that the country isn't going to dump on Republicans forever. There is no grace period when the country will still vote for Democrats just because they hate Republicans. Democratic hopes in 2010 and 2012 rest entirely on our governing record during the next two to four years. Polling and election results show that Republican obstructionism will not be accepted as an excuse, and neither will be starting from the bottom of the deep hole Bush and Republicans dug for us. If we don't make things better, Republicans will immediately become competitive again, and the 2010-2012 political environment could be a lot more like 2000-2004 than 2005-2008.

In two years time, simply being a Democrat will no be longer good enough to be elected. We have been hired in huge numbers to solve problems without Republican interference. If we can't do that, then the country will sour on us, too. As such, the way back for Republicans is straightforward: hope that Democratic governance does not turn the country around.

Georgia Runoff Thread

Chris Bowers — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:29:16 GMT

This is a thread for returns in the Georgia Senate race. Keep in mind that the early returns will probably, just like on November 4th, be from more pro-Chambliss areas.

47% reporting
Chambliss: 62.3%
Martin: 37.7%

Update: Martin is underperforming November 4th by about 8%:

I have a spreadsheet comparing results by county between the runoff and the general election. Martin appears to be underperforming by about 8%. It looks like it will be a short night, unfortunately.

Chambliss will win. It will probably be called very soon. Damn. Much now rests on Minnesota, including the Employee Free Choice Act.

Update 2: A more optimistic projection:

Martin doing 3.2% worse than his 48.5% share of the two-way vote on Nov 4th. That means he's at like 45%.

Hopefully a lot of Absentee/Early Voting in the numbers. Again no democratic counties are in - with extremely low turnout, moderate turnout in those counties can win it for Martin.

Update 3: The numbers are really bad, and Martin is underperforming everywhere. Chambliss will win, and I will stop updating.

Georgia, Minnesota, and the Importance of Verified Voting

Midwest Millian — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:36:47 GMT

Cross-posted at Daily Kos.

We're about to finish the 2008 election cycle with the conclusion of two elections for the United States Senate, a recount in Minnesota and a runoff in Georgia. It's hard to imagine a better illustration of America's oddball and potentially disastrous election process.

The Senate election in Minnesota is being recounted in what most consider, ballot challenges aside, an admirably scrupulous process. In Minnesota, every voter votes on a paper ballot read by optical scanners, and ballot-marking devices are available in every polling place to serve voters who cannot use a pen to mark a ballot due to vision, dexterity or other disabilities. Recounts are done by hand. If there is doubt about the intent of the voter, the ballots can be examined, and standards for evaluating intent applied. Part of the reason there are so many unresolved ballot challenges in Minnesota is simply because there is independent evidence of voter intent to evaluate.
The other Senate election, tomorrow's Georgia runoff, could not be recounted effectively if the margin turns out to be less than 50 votes, as happened in four Iowa state legislative races, or even one vote, as happened in an Alaska state House race. All the polling places in Georgia use only paperless touch screen machines, whose reputation for security and reliability has been justly traduced by a series of reports which I pray I will have occasion to forget one day. On these machines, voter intent cannot be recovered independently of the software in the machines. The ACCURATE Center, a think tank consisting of computer scientists and technologists with an interest in voting technology, summed up the problem (p. 23 of the pdf):

In today's purely electronic systems, there is no "fixed record" for voters to review, or for officials to review as a check against the system or in the case of a recount. If votes were incorrectly recorded by the system there is no possibility of a meaningful recount.

The inability to perform an effective recount creates vulnerability to both small-scale and large-scale error and tampering. As I have written too many times before, the Brennan Center Task Force on Voting System Security concluded that a close statewide election on paperless electronic systems could be manipulated successfully by as few as one to three people. And the mere existence of paper ballots is not enough; systematic and robust hand count audits are necessary after each election.

And so ends the 2008 federal election cycle, with the polarities of America's voting system showing in bold relief for anyone who is paying attention. I hope this becomes a teachable moment. We have limited time to improve this situation by 2012, still less by 2010.

And improve the situation we must. By my count, 164 electoral votes in the 2008 Presidential election were determined by votes cast on purely electronic systems. Georgia (15 electoral votes), Maryland (10 EVs), Delaware (3), Louisiana (9), New Jersey (15), and South Carolina (8) use paperless e-voting at all polling places statewide. Based on voter-registration figures and county voting systems, it's safe to say that a majority of ballots in Indiana (11 EVs), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), and Virginia (13) were paperless. Maryland and Tennessee should convert to paper ballot/optical scan systems by 2010, though counterattacks by election officials who don't want to lose their paperless machines are to be expected. New Jersey passed a law requiring voter-verified paper records in 2005, though some days I expect to be driving a hydrogen-powered hovercar by the time they get around to implementing it.

It may seem like a no-brainer for a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress to enact a bill to require paper ballots and audits. President-elect Obama was cosponsor of the most recent iteration of Senator Clinton's Count Every Vote Act, a bill which included some of the best language on voting machines in any Congress to date, requiring robust audits and improved security.

But passing anything nearly as good as the voting machine language in the Count Every Vote Act will be damned hard. I'll post more on that soon.

Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part 3

Chris Bowers — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:00:00 GMT

Part three of my continuing series on the five congressional campaigns with undecided outcomes--Georgia Senate, Minnesota Senate, California 4th, Louisiana 4th, and Ohio 15th--can be found in the extended entry. There are important updates on all five campaigns.
As with before, here is the current balance of partisan power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.

And here are the updates:

California 4th: After another 900 votes were counted, Democrat Charlie Brown has pulled within 622 votes of Republican Tom McClintock. About 30,000 votes remain "unprocessed" and break down as follows:
El Dorado and Nevada Counties keep providing updates, but not Placer County, which is waiting until they finish to report. The assistant registrar there said that Placer County plans to complete their count by Thanksgiving.

Placer had the largest number of unprocessed votes (vote-by-mail, provisionals, damaged ballots and ballots diverted by scanning machines) on election night (20,949). McClintock edges Brown 50.7% to 49.3% there.

A report by the Sacramento Bee on Friday said that these three counties were about to start counting some 7000 provisionals, and that these have a 10% rejection rate.

Brown only has to win the remaining votes by about 2.5% in order to emerge victorious, so this is still a winnable campaign. Nevada county leans toward Brown by 15%, while El Dorado county currently gives McClintock a 2% edge. Expect a recount to take place after Thanksgiving in this district, as well.
Georgia Senate: Saxby Chambliss doesn't know what a recession is:

I like this ad from Jim Martin. The incorporation of local video footage and a pro-Obama message are very nice. It is healthy to see Democrats in Georgia using netroots techniques and not running away from their own party. Good stuff.
Louisiana 4th: Dick Cheney is fundraising for Republican candidate John Fleming. It sure would be nice to take down Bush-Cheney one last time. The DCCC has released an ad attacking Fleming's national sales tax plan:

This isn't going to be a campaign run around a lot of progressive ideas. Still, it is nice to see attacks on wingnut ideas like a national sales tax (sorry, Jerry Brown) become the focus of our paid media.
Minnesota Seante: Yet another study showing that an audit and recount will favor Franken has come out. However, the Franken campaign is seeking to delay the certification of the vote, which has the possibility of delaying the recount. Their argument is that a few hundred absentee ballots still haven't been counted. Their justifiable worry is that if Coleman is "certified" as the leader in the "official" vote count before an audit and recount begins, it will give Coleman legal leverage and an aura of credibility even if Franken pulls into the lead later on. This was one of Gore's problems during the 2000 recount, and during the Bush vs. Gore lawsuit in the Supreme Court, so it is worth being worried about. It is a good move by the Franken campaign.
Ohio 15th: There are 27,000 provisional ballots left to count in this campaign, where Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy trails by 149 votes. As I noted back on Saturday, almost all of those provisionals come from Franklin county, where Kilroy leads by 5%. These numbers give Kilroy an excellent chance to win this seat, and arguably make her the favorite.

However, Republican Steve Stivers has filed a lawsuit trying to toss 1,000 of those provisional ballots, and the rest of the provisionals can't be counted until the lawsuit is resolved. A federal judge was supposed to rule today on the 1,000 disputed ballots, but has punted his decision until Thursday:
A federal judge in Columbus says he'll decide by Thursday whether to allow disputed provisional ballots to be counted in a tight central Ohio congressional race.

This honestly feels like a delaying tactic from Stivers to prevent any of the provisional ballots to be counted. Kilroy is the favorite even if these 1,000 ballots are tossed, and it seems like Stivers is just trying to hold onto the lead as long as possible in order to give him the aura of victory. I don't think it will work, and I still expect Kilroy to win this seat.

Remember, we need one of the two Senate campaigns to pass the Employee Free Choice Act, and both in order to reach 60 Senate votes if Lieberman stays in the caucus. The House seats are pretty much gravy, but still important.

Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part Two

Chris Bowers — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.

The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry.
Senate Races

Georgia: Have you started linking to Saxby Chambliss yet? The more people who do, the higher it will appear in search engine rankings. If we can push it into the first ten results for Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, then it will result in a lot of excellent voter contacts. Everyone who encounters the site will be a voter looking for more information on Saxby Chambliss, and we can show them this great website made by an enterprising activist.

There is still only one post-election poll in Georgia, showing Saxby Chambliss up 3%. Martin is racking up $50,000 a day on Act Blue, Obama has sent staff, McCain has stumped for Chambliss, and both the NRSC and DSCC are running ads. I like the new DSCC ad:

The best part about this ad is that it makes a partisan case against gridlock, rather than a bi-partisan one. In this ad, the presence of large numbers of Republicans in the Senate is the source of gridlock, rather than vague platitudes about "working with both sides." The former is a better argument, because it actually makes sense.
Minnesota: This one is moving onto the recount stage, which will begin next week. Franken's deficit has been reduced to 200 votes in the final pre-recount audit, according to The Uptake. Also, a new study has come out, suggesting that Franken will gain votes once Minnesota ballots with undervotes on the Senate campaign are examined. Franken is also expected to gain from the regular recounting, so this one is going to be very close. Expect the fight to come down to legal inspections of individual ballots, a process that will begin on December 16th. This will, in all likelihood, be the last campaign to be decided this year. There might even be a dispute at the Senate swearing in ceremony in the first week of January!

House Races

California 04: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails Republican Tom McClintock by 691 votes. Approximately 35,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in this campaign, plus a small but undetermined number of "regular" votes in two pro-McClintock counties and one toss-up county (source). Pending the remaining 35,000 votes, neither side has declared victory, and both will attend freshman orientation next week. Brown will have to do well among the absentees in order to win this. He should, just like all Democrats, do well among the provisionals. No word on when all of the votes will be counted here.
Louisiana 04: No news here. As with last time, this is a Republican-leaning district (R+7), with dueling polls. The internal Democratic poll, with a 4.0% margin of error, shows Paul Carmouche ahead by 10%. The internal Republican poll, with a laughable margin of error of 8.3%, shows the Republican ahead by 5%. This campaign leans Democratic, but only slightly. In the Louisiana 6th race a couple weeks ago, the Republican made up a lot of ground in the final days to squeak out a win.
Ohio 15: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails Republican Steve Stivers by 149 votes. 27,000 provisional ballots, almost all in Democratic-leaning Franklin county, remain to be counted. Stivers is challenging about 1,000 of those ballots in court, with a ruling due out on Monday:
A federal judge says he'll rule Monday on whether he has jurisdiction in a case involving a still-unresolved congressional race and provisional ballots.

U.S. District Court Judge Algenon Marbley says he'll hear from both sides Monday if he decides he can hear the case.

If not, Marbley says he'll send the issue back to the Ohio Supreme Court where it was originally filed.

Kilroy currently leads by 5% in Franklin county, suggesting that she stands to gain about 1,250 votes from the provisional ballots even if the 1,000 Stivers is challenging are tossed. With her expected gains more than 1,000 votes larger than her current deficit, it seems quite likely that Mary Jo Kilroy will win this district.
Oh, and I should add than a 10% provisional ballot rate in this district is a travesty. Pathetic.

My current guess is that we win two of the three House seats, making for a total of D 259-176 R, exactly one seat under my projection. In the Senate, I don't feel like we are the favorite in either campaign, but we do have a good chance to win at least one of them. If we do, then we will have enough seats to pass The Employee Free Choice Act, providing card check law nationwide and an opportunity to transform the American workplace. We already have enough seats to pass really all of Obama's agenda.

In the national U.S. House popular vote, Democrats currently lead by 8.88%, making it the largest popular vote victory in either a national Presidential or Congressional campaign since 1984. That is a real accomplishment for Chris Van Hollen.

Oh yeah, and in the presidential campaign, Obama's popular vote lead has grown to 52.70%--46.00%. I look forward to the moment when McCain dips below 46%, although my hope for a 7.00% victory now seems highly unlikely. The only remaining state to be called, Missouri, will complete counting on Monday. McCain currently holds a 4,900 vote lead, and will probably hang on to win the state. The final electoral vote count should be Obama 365-173 McCain. Not bad!

Still Counting, Recounting and Runoff Compendium

Chris Bowers — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:30:00 GMT

With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry.
Here is the best of what's left:

Election Run-offs

Georgia Senate: The run-off for Georgia Senate will take place on December 2nd. The only post-election poll on the campaign comes from Daily Kos / Research 2000, showing Republican Saxby Chambliss ahead 49%-46%. Turnout for the run-off will only be about 50%-60% November 4th levels. Also, it is unlikely that African-Americans, who were about two-thirds of Martin's voters on November 4th, will turnout at such high levels. So, the odds do not favor us on this one.

However, Jim Martin's Act Blue pages are hopping, I am still running Personal Paid Media for this campaign:

If you are running a Personal Paid Media campaign, or if you are simply interested in a form of search engine activism that is free, considering sending your ads to Saxby-Chambliss.com or embedding that website in a hyperlink whenever you write Saxby Chambliss. The site was created by a progressive activist who just noticed that Saxby Chambliss had left the URL wide open.
Louisiana 4th: Louisiana run-off elections will take pace on December 7th, making this the closing event of the 2008 campaign season. The district is R+7, but Democrat Paul Carmouche leads Republican Republican John Fleming by 10% according to an internal poll. Fleming did release a counter-internal poll showing him up 5%, but it has a hilariously small sample size of 140, and a margin of error over 8%. This campaign is somewhere between a toss-up and leaning Democratic.

Election Recounts

Minnesota Senate: Entering the recount, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 206 votes. The vote will be certified on November 19th, and the recount will begin soon thereafter at 100+ sites across the state. Each campaign will have a lawyer at each site. After the recount, on December 16th, the canvassing board will begin to rule, one by one, on challenged ballots. Further, a fight over 461 disqualified absentee ballots in one county will go to court.

So, this one is going to take a while. Franken will likely gain votes in the recount, but finding 207 will be difficult. The fact is that it is better to be ahead than behind in this situation. WineRev has a complete breakdown of the timeline and key players.
California 4th: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails by 815 votes in this district. There are a few votes left to count, and a recount is also likely. However, the campaign is in a holding pattern until the first count is completed. This one looks unlikely.
Ohio 15th: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails by 149 votes, with provisional ballots pending. There are thousands of provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, and two years ago Kilroy gained more than 150 votes in that phase of the counting. This one still seems like a toss-up.

Balance of Power
There are a few other House seats that some consider undecided, but which I did not list here. While some are still waiting on AK-AL, I'm calling it for the Republican incumbent Don Young. Also, some are waiting on the LA-02 runoff with William Jefferson, but I have no doubt he will win. Finally, others are waiting on VA-05, but Tom Perriello will win there.

Overall, this puts the balance of partisan power in the U.S. House at D 257-175 R, with three campaigns outstanding. Either D 259-176 R or D 258-177 R appears to be the most likely final outcome, given that Republicans are favored in CA-04, Democrats are favored in LA-04, and OH-15 really is a toss-up.

In the Senate, I didn't list Alaska, but Mark Begich will win. This provides Democrats 56 seats plus Sanders and, as is appearing more likely all the time, plus Lieberman. Republicans right now only have 40 seats in the Senate, which is why I indicated last night that we are close to the point where Republicans don't matter anymore. Even though such a sentence smacks of hubris, I mostly stand by that assessment. It is accurate to say that if Franken and Martin both win, then Republicans won't really matter for pretty much all of 2009. So, we are close to the point where Republicans won't matter for a little while.

In the Presidential election, Obama currently leads the popular vote 52.69% to 46.01%. His margin has been steadily increasing over the last nine days, and will continue to do so until the final numbers are certified later this month. Missouri's eleven electoral votes are currently undecided, but Obama would need to make up 5,000 votes among provisional ballots. That seems unlikely, and the final electoral count will almost certainly be Obama 365-173 McCain.

That one electoral vote in Nebraska will really narrow down the final contestants for the Mac Book on Daily Kos's election contest. I won't be winning that, but I did win National Journal's contest for bloggers. That's something, I guess. Also, once final results are certified across all states, I will be interested to see how the various polling forecasting methodologies fared against one another. Specifically, I want to see how my method fared against fivethirtyeight and pollster.com. They both know more about polls and statistics than I do, but I wouldn't count my method out before the final numbers are in. I'm pretty sure there was virtually no difference in average error.

CQ Politics also has a good rundown of campaigns that are still undecided.

GA-Sen, AK-Sen: Help Fund Overtime Day 2

Senate Guru — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 20:34:08 GMT

Yesterday, I asked you to help Democrats Jim Martin and Mark Begich via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page as the Georgia Senate race heads toward a run-off against Shameless Saxby Chambliss and the Alaska Senate race heads toward a protracted vote count and possible legal battle against convicted felon Ted Stevens.

You responded with hundreds of dollars and we are so close to our goal on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page - please help Martin and Begich meet the goal this weekend:

Democrat	Current	Goal	Difference
Jim Martin	~~$3,385~~ $3,900	$4,000	~~$615~~ just $100
Mark Begich	~~$5,553~~ $5,820	$6,000	~~$447~~ just $180

Please make a contribution today via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and help Jim Martin and Mark Begich eject Saxby Chambliss and Ted Stevens from the U.S. Senate.

GA-Sen, AK-Sen: Help Fund Overtime

Senate Guru — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 18:58:23 GMT

With the Georgia Senate race headed toward a run-off election and the Alaska Senate race amid a protracted vote count, both Jim Martin and Mark Begich need your continued support!

Please, please, please make a contribution to them via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page this weekend!

Democrat	Current	Goal	Difference
Jim Martin	$3,385	$4,000	$615
Mark Begich	$5,553	$6,000	$447

Please, please, please contribute this weekend!

Ramping Up Personal Paid Media

Chris Bowers — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:46:02 GMT

With only seven days until the polls close, most campaigns have already made their final media purchases for this cycle. However, even though campaigns are winding down their paid media purchases, there is still plenty of time for you to run a low-cost, easily changed, personalized paid advertising campaign for whatever swing state or whatever congressional campaign you wish.

It is time to ramp up the Personal Paid Media campaign. Between now and the election, I will personally run at least 15 of these, and probably closer to 30. In the last twenty-four hours alone, I started three new Google Ad campaigns, all targeted at key congressional races. Check them out in the extended entry.
Here they are:

Here is my ad on the Georgia Senate campaign, which I started at about 3:00 a.m. eastern last night:

As of 6:00 p.m. eastern today, the ad was viewed by 2,851 Georgians searching for information on Saxby Chambliss online, and 17 clicked through the ad. It has cost me $19.16 so far, though I capped my daily spending on the ad at $20.00. It is running throughout the entire state of Georgia on about 20 keyword searches related to Saxy Chambliss and Imperial Sugar.
Here is my ad on the Oregon Senate campaign, which I started at about 3:45 a.m. last night:

As of 6:00 p.m. eastern, this ad was viewed by 2,601 Oregonians looking for information about Gordon Smith online, and 7 of them clicked through. It isn't performing as well as the Saxy Chambliss ad, but I still like it because it's funny (or, at least, I think it's funny).
So far, it has cost me $8.91. It is running on twenty keyword searches across the entire state of Oregon. The searches are related to Gordson Smith and recipes.
Here is an ad on the Washington 8th congressional campaign, which I started at about 5:45 p.m. eastern, today:

In just one hour, this ad was viewed by 190 people, and clicked through twice. The ad is running on fifteen keyword searches for Google and its search partners in the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area.

Since September 10th, I have run several, McCain focused ads in this vein in a rotating array of swing states (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania). All total, my ads have been viewed by 103,111 people using search engines (mainly Google) for information on John McCain or one of these congressional campaigns. A total of 413 people have clicked on the ads, and they have cost me $258.01.

Think about that: over 100,000 voter contacts in key swing states and congressional campaigns for only $258. Given that these ads can be targeted only at people in the swing state or congressional district you are targeting, given that their content can be changed at a moment's notice, given that you can spend whatever amount you like on these ads (high or low), and, most importantly, given that you will only reach people who, at the very moment you reach them, are looking for information on the candidate you are targeting, this is a remarkably good deal.

By far the most common political action Americans engage in online is to search for information about political candidates. Now, as long as you have a Google account and a credit card, you can reach these people with your own personal paid media campaign. It is quick. It is easy. And it can fit any budget.

Here is a quick introduction on how you can get started with this campaign:

Run Your Own Paid Media Campaign (Seriously)

And here is a primer on how to maximize the effectiveness of your campaign:

How To Maximize Your Personal Paid Media Campaign

Now, I personally prefer targeting Republicans with negative messaging, because I don't want to interfere with the positive messages Democrats are trying to get out. Also, I tend to use messages where links to local news organizations and / or non-profits can be incorporated into the ad. As much as I would like to try and reinforce campaign messaging, I don't want to just send the people viewing my ads to Democratic campaign websites. I feel a news organization or non-profit website would be considered more trustworthy by undecided voters.

Of course, these are just my personal preferences, and you can do whatever you want with your ads. This is a great way to make a difference in an election even after all campaigns have finished with their own paid media spots. With some financial assistance form BlogPac, I am going to start running ads for all of the candidates on the Better Democrats page.

So, all of you budding media geniuses out there, let's get to it! I'll report back in every day on how my ads are doing, and also start at least three new ads every day. In the comments, we can compare notes on all of our ads, and work to improve our campaigns. Millions of undecided voters are going to be searching for information on the presidential and congressional elections this weekend. Let's reach them, and make a difference!

More Great Independent Ads

Mike Lux — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 21:30:00 GMT

Cross-posted on Huffington Post

Two more absolutely spectacular ads by progressive organizations.

The first, a reprise of an ad that VoteVets did in some races in 2006, is going up in the GA Senate race, and could make a huge difference.

The 2nd one is on the Presidential race, referring to McCain's little gambling habit and his ties to the gambling industry.

You can give to VoteVets here.

You can give to Campaign Money Watch here.

Outstanding Creative Activism

Chris Bowers — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 00:10:48 GMT

Over in Quick Hits, Neil the Ethical Wereworlf provides a link to saxby-chambliss.com, a website he put up on the Georgia Senate campaign. Neil seems to have done it on his own, first by purchasing a URL the Chambliss campaign foolishly let slip by, and second simply by producing some very cool content for the website.

To top it off, multiple commenters in the thread have indicated they will redirect their personal Google Ads on the Georgia Senate campaign toward the page. It is a remarkable confluence of the Personal Paid Media campaign and some great work by Neil. Fantastic, outstanding, creative grassroots activism.

Well done Neil. And well done WI Dem and Brian Weatherson who are running Google Ads on the Georgia Senate campaign. If you want to start running Google Ads for a campaign this year, click here for great guide on how to do so. And, if you want to support Jim Martin, hop on over to the Better Democrats page, and drop in a few dollars.

Some People Are Upset The Middle Ages Ended

Chris Bowers — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:03:57 GMT

After several conservative commentators blamed the financial crisis on ethnic minorities, now some are stepping up to the plate and blaming it on God's wrath for our sexual sins:

In a September 25th blog post titled 'The Nation Will Right Itself If It Fixes Sex', Christian Civil League of Maine Executive Director Michael Heath writes that the financial crisis facing Wall Street is a symptom of America's sinful sexual culture, including the acceptance of gay unions.

"Our crisis is a symptom, not the cause," writes Michael Heath. "I am not saying I know whether this financial crisis is God's judgment or not. It is not for me to know that definitively."

Heath goes on to list policy changes that would make God "crack a smile," including: End abortion rights and defund non-profit groups supporting it, amend state constitutions to ban gay marriage and eliminate domestic partnerships and civil unions for gay and lesbian couples, and end discrimination against private religious schools and homeschools.

This is exactly how monks in medieval Europe would explain the problems facing a group of people: bad stuff happened to you because God punished you for sinning. Wars, famine, disease were all explained this way. It is, um, uh, interesting to see this line of thought alive today in the United States of America.

From a "more Democrats" perspective, it is important to keep in mind that this is what we are up against: rank medievalism and anti-modernity. The good news is that this "God is punishing us for our sins" explanation of the problems we face isn't getting many takers from the public. Even the Georgia Senate race, as confirmed by two polls in the last two days (see here and here), is now within two and a half points because of this meltdown. If the Georgia Senate race is now too close to call, then the number of Democratic pickup opportunities is enormous. There are going to be a whole lot of "more Democrats" in 2009.

The key is to make sure that those "more Democrats" are also "Better Democrats." Over at the Better Democrats Act Blue page, we have a selection of eight challengers who we promise will all be of the Better variety. I believe that every single one of them are candidates that either Matt or I have personally met, who also would have voted correctly on both FISA and the Iraq war, and all, or virtually all, of them also singed the Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq. With the current political environment, they all have a good chance right now, and by contributing today you can make a difference in their campaigns. Even though Act Blue was down for about three hours today, we are still more than halfway to our goal of 100 contributors today, Let's push that over the top, and move closer to a progressive governing majority.

A look at the 2008 Senate races, September edition

BruinKid — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 13:48:56 GMT

So with the Alaska primary and the conventions now over, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
First off, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I'm using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of June 2008. "Q2" refers to the period of April to June 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for. Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising. Since July, the polls show unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) cannot get above 35%, and Warner cannot get below 55%. Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Fraternal Order of Police, two traditionally Republican groups, see the writing on the wall and have endorsed Warner. Move along. Nothing to see here. This is about as lopsided as you're gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Outside groups like the Club for Growth have been pouring money into this state attacking Udall recently, and the polling has now shown the race getting closer. Udall, though, is still over the 50% mark with a statistically significant lead, and the NRSC recently cancelled their TV advertising in this state. Udall also still has a massive cash on hand advantage over Pearce.

3. New Hampshire: Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008. General rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent. The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage. That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I'm not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Colorado: Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall's son, and Tom Udall's cousin. He'll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R). Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer has been known for his close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands. At the end of July, Udall still had about $700,000 more cash on hand than Schaffer did. Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall. In fact, 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact. But that may explain why the polls show the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads. Still, even Schaffer's own internal poll showed Udall leading by 3 points, while Udall's own internal shows him up by 11. So the truth is probably somewhere in between. Then just this week, it turns out the latest Schaffer ad was made without his image in the ad, which turns out to be a violation of campaign communications law, and could cost Schaffer's campaign a million dollars.

5. North Carolina: The polls are showing two very different stories here. Some polls show Kay Hagan (D) with a slim lead over incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R). Other polls show Dole with a modest lead over Hagan. But it's not just this race, the governor's race and the presidential race also seem to be showing conflicting numbers, depending on which poll you look at. But something to note about these polls, a lot of them seem to be underestimating the black turnout. In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that's 22% or less black. Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind. The other thing is that these polls were conducted in the midst of McCain's convention bounce. One would think that when they settle back down, the numbers will be more favorable to Hagan (and Obama). Hagan's been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand. Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he has been indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race. His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. Now while the polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens before the indictment, Stevens was still able to easily win his primary at the end of August, and combined with McCain's Sarah Palin pick, the polls have suddenly gotten much friendlier to Stevens, and I don't think it was from his primary win over some no-name challengers. Non-partisan polling now shows Begich only up by 2 or 3 points. Still, the incumbent Stevens is under the 50% mark. But the trial will go on, and jury selection will begin on September 24. On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has over $1 million more cash on hand as Begich.

7. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R). The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith. Smith seems worried, as his commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush! Then, he turned from trying to prop up his own record to smearing Merkley with a misleading ad implying that Merkley is pro-rapist. Stay classy, Gordon. It of course misrepresents what actually happened, and when it was introduced as a stand-alone bill, Merkley of course voted for the tougher penalties. Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and Smith had almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2. The DSCC has stepped in with a hard-hitting ad hitting Smith over his support for the Iraq War. Most polls show Smith with a slim lead. In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod. The recent polling presents a mixed bag, some with Coleman leading, some with Franken leading. What is noticeable is that in every single poll since late July, Coleman is under the 50% mark in all of them. For an incumbent, that's not a good place to be at. Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more. Through mid-August, Coleman still had more than twice as much cash on hand as Franken had. Coleman also just violated the law about using his image in his campaign ads. Last month, there was also the story about Coleman's sweetheart apartment deal with a Republican operative. It remains to be seen how much the Franken campaign will highlight this, but his recent ads have definitely become much more hard-hitting.

9. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year's Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01. That's the seat that Travis Childers (D) won in May. That has to be a shot in the arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1. But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K. The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up. It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state. The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate. So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove. And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott's term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November. That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi. Even with Wicker ahead, it looks like the GOP is worried about this race, as Governor Haley Barbour (R) has buried the race at the bottom of the ballot, even after the local county district races. The problem is that Mississippi election law clearly states that races for national office are supposed to be at the top of the list. Would Barbour go to all this trouble if he didn't think the GOP had this race in the bag? Fortunately, a circuit judge has ruled that all those ballots must be recalled and reprinted. Expect Barbour and the GOP to appeal this all the way to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which unfortunately was the group that ruled earlier to distribute those ballots in the first place, striking down an earlier court order blocking them.

11. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident. Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) won the primary, and Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind him and pledged to do their part to defeat McConnell. McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund. All the recent polls show Lunsford trailing by double digits. Hard-hitting comments like this from Lunsford will be necessary if he is to make a dent in those numbers. Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, but that was due to him loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace; McConnell still had almost 7 times as much cash on hand. But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, at least that will help the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races. These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn't seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March. Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he's run a statewide race before. And thankfully, Martin easily won the Democratic primary over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who voted for Bush... twice, still doesn't know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats "losers". Polling had also shown that Jones would've been DOA against Chambliss, while Martin at least stood an outside chance. After winning the primary, Rasmussen showed Martin was only behind Chambliss by 6 points, though he's still seriously behind Chambliss in cash on hand. Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland's face, earning him the nickname "Shameless Saxby".

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March. Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also. Still, the polls have not been kind to Slattery. There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq. Except... the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991. And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress. Why only that year? Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor. At their recent debate, the audience actually laughed at Roberts when he tried to justify the Iraq War by claiming the whole word got the intelligence wrong on Iraq.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R). But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent polls have shown Collins' numbers going up and up, which has landed this race down in Tier II status now. Allen's fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million. The DSCC has reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state. And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins. I mean, really suck. When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something's up. Of course, Allen kow-towing to Collins' demands doesn't help his cause any, either.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA's polling. State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, could not be farther apart from Inhofe when it comes to energy and environmental issues. Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trailed Inhofe by over $1.7 million. And while the DSCC's own polling shows it to be a 9-point race, the latest SurveyUSA poll showed Rice down by 22 points. Those factors should normally make this a Tier III race, but veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer joined Rice's staff, and curiously, Inhofe has just released an attack ad on Rice, something not usually done if you're really up by 22 points. Because of Inhofe's actions, I'll keep this at Tier II.

Texas: Netroots Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R). State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn's people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere. Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it. But that doesn't seem to have made an impact, and the few polls on this race actually show Cornyn gaining ground and going back over the 50% mark. And the fundraising numbers are especially troubling for Noriega, with Cornyn finishing Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand as Noriega had. And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.

Tier III

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom... ah... incident, it's looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin. While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco. While a recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%, Rasmussen painted a very different picture, with LaRocco trailing by almost 30 points. A wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch's support. Though it's not exactly encouraging that Rammell actually outraised LaRocco as well, even if that money will be going towards attacking Risch.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush's Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat. The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring. While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote. That's had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race. Of course, that doesn't take into account how he'd be running against the former governor of the state. The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns. The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trailed in cash on hand by almost $800K.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February. It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush. Tuke has a little over a quarter million on hand, while Alexander has over three million.

Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand after the national conventions. Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may still shake things up, and we won't know exactly what the national mood will be 7 weeks from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I'm sticking with them... until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it's so obviously a top tier race, why I'm being too optimistic in some seat, etc. Have at it. :-)

Step Up for Red State Democratic Candidates for Senate

Senate Guru — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 13:15:54 GMT

One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states. Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.

You can blow the Senate Guru's mind by helping meet the below goals in the week ahead by contributing to these red state Democrats via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page:

Red state Democrat	Currently At	Goal Amount	Distance to Goal
Bob Tuke	$40	$100	$60 to go
Jim Slattery	$350	$500	$150 to go
Ronnie Musgrove	$413	$500	$87 to go
Jim Martin	$760	$1,000	$240 to go

$100 makes a huge difference. $10 makes a huge difference. We're now less than two months from Election Day. Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats' chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate. Let's keep that momentum going!

A look at the 2008 Senate races, August edition

BruinKid — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 23:36:57 GMT

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?

I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
(Just so you know, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.)

FYI, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I'm using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of June 2008. "Q2" refers to the period of April to June 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for. Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. That's freaking unheard of. He'll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. Not a single poll shows Gilmore getting even 40%. Warner's sitting on 20+ point leads. And oh yeah, Warner also pulled in almost $3 million in Q2, while Gilmore raised less than $500K. To top it off, Gilmore's been burning through the little cash he got, and ended up with less than $117K left at the end of Q2, which was almost $5 million less than what Warner was sitting on. This is about as lopsided as you're gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years who ran for President in 1976. Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) won a bitter GOP primary over Heather Wilson, ending her career in Congress. So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation was running for this Senate seat! The polling just keeps getting better and better for Udall, as he's hit the 60% mark in several polls now. I wrote back in May that I expected to see a sort of "unity bounce" once the GOP primary was decided. Instead, the opposite happened, and Udall's numbers went up even more. Combine this with Udall having over 5 times as much cash on hand as Pearce, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren't for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008's version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor? Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008. The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-45%. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent. The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has almost $3 million more cash on hand than Shaheen has. That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I'm not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but earlier this week, he was indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. This started when the FBI raided his home last June. Several Veco executives have already pled guilty to bribing Ted's son Ben, who was the former Alaska state senate president, with former Veco CEO Bill Allen having admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race. His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. Even before the indictment, several polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens. In the wake of the indictments, Rasmussen now has Begich leading Stevens 50%-37%. Jury selection will begin on September 24, and Stevens wants the trial to take place before the election. What remains to be seen is if he'll survive the August 26th primary, and even if he does, if the Alaska GOP would try to replace him with someone else. But Rasmussen also showed that among some of the other GOP challengers, Begich leads them by even bigger margins, so it's unclear if that will help the GOP out. On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has twice as much cash on hand as Begich, though that may not help him now.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall's son, and Tom Udall's cousin. He'll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R). Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor's office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. At the end of Q2, Udall was sitting on an almost $4 million warchest, with Schaffer over $1 million behind. Schaffer also has close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and was helping out Aspect Energy push an oil deal that would hurt U.S.-Iraq policy. Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall. That may explain why Rasmussen shows the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads. The other polls still show Udall with some kind of lead (other than Quinnipiac, though its crosstabs make it look like they undersampled Democrats), and not a single poll has come out with Schaffer holding any kind of lead. Update: 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact.

6. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R). The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith. Smith seems worried, as his recent commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush! Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and now Smith has almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2. The DSCC has stepped in with an $850,000 cable TV ad buy starting in September to help out Merkley. Also, the latest Rasmussen poll now shows Merkley with a lead for the first time ever in any poll, at 43%-41%. In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year's Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won't have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years. Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he's won elected office previously. But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it in May. So things are changing even in Mississippi. That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1. But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K. The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up. It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state. The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate. The Rasmussen poll showing Wicker up by 6 seems to also have a 34% black breakdown in their sample. So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove. And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott's term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November. That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi. As a result, Wicker went up with a TV ad back in May introducing himself to voters.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod. The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states. Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in. Then the GOP hammered Franken for a Playboy article he wrote over a decade ago, calling it "juicy porn". As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories. SurveyUSA has Coleman up by double-digits, while Rasmussen has Franken up by 3. However, the SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman's best support comes from young people, which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Combined with their presidential poll, which shows Obama TIED with McCain among young voters, and something doesn't quite make sense in their numbers. The Senate poll also shows the electorate will be made up of 32% Republicans, only 33% Democrats, and 21% Independents. It strangely leaves out 14% of the population. So take that poll with a huge grain of salt. Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more, though Coleman ended Q2 with $3 million more in his coffers.

9. North Carolina: After Kay Hagan easily won her primary in May, the polls showed a primary bump, with some polls even putting her ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R). That led Dole to fire her campaign manager. Then her campaign asked the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on the race. Um, isn't that's the whole point of those campaign committees? However, since the primary bump, Dole's lead has gone back to about 10 points. But something to note about those polls, they all seem to underestimate the black turnout. In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that's 22% or less black. Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind. Hagan's been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand. Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

10. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R). But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 49%-42%. Allen's fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million. The DSCC has now reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state. And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins. I mean, really suck. When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something's up.

11. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat. (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.) As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there's lots of conflicting data. On the one hand, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the state more red than it used to be. Bobby Jindal (R) didn't even need a runoff to win the governor's race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected. On the other hand, Mary's brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin. And the win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, may bode well for Landrieu. Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but she outraised him in Q2, and has almost $3 million more in cash on hand than he does. All the non-Zogby polls show Landrieu ahead; the question is by how much. A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year... as a Democrat. After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they're suddenly going to say he's the right person for the job?

12. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R). State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn's people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere. Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it. But no polls have been taken of this race since June, when Rasmussen showed Noriega down by 13, though Cornyn was under the 50% mark. However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1. Noriega did better in Q2, raising almost $1 million, but Cornyn finished Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand. And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter. Unless some polls come out showing this is a closer race, this will remain in Tier II. Update: And right after writing this, Rasmussen shows Noriega down by 10 points, with Cornyn under the 50% mark. So I've moved it back to Tier I status.

13. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident. But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid. Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford hasn't exactly been a netroots favorite in the past, having ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler. But it looks like Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell. McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund. And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read. "[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation. But I don't care how many names he's going to call me, because in January he's going to call me 'Senator.'" Well played, sir. Things like that will help assuage the netroots. Two recent polls show Lunsford behind by about 10 points. Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, largely due to loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace, but McConnell still has almost 7 times as much cash on hand. But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, that will only serve to benefit the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races. These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom... ah... incident, it's looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin. While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco. A recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%. The wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch's support. Rammell actually outraised LaRocco, and has a little more cash on hand, and will spend that money attacking Risch. There are also two other right-wing candidates on the ballot that will split the conservative vote even more.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March. Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also. Rasmussen had given encouraging news in June, showing Slattery within single digits, but in July, their poll showed Slattery down by 27 points. There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq. Except... the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991. So... voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war? Um, OK, that's some great Republican logic for you. And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress. Why only that year? Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA's polling. State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, is now the formal Democratic nominee, having won his primary last week by a 20-point margin. Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues. Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trails Inhofe by over $1.7 million. A Research 2000 poll from June showed Rice down by 22 points. Those two factors would normally make this a Tier III race, but then came the news that veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer have joined Rice's staff. Those two both worked on Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign and for the DSCC.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats' top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) as the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R). But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case. And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired. So if Sessions gets ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe. And the prospect of that, which grows dimmer by the day, is the only thing keeping this from going into the "safe" category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn't seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March. Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he's run a statewide race before. And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws. Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the primary runoff on August 5th. Except... Jones voted for Bush... twice, still doesn't know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats "losers". Way to, um, not endear yourself to the netroots. The 3rd and 4th place finishers in the primary have already endorsed Martin in the runoff. Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland's face. If Martin bests Jones in the primary next Tuesday, I'll move this up to Tier II, as polling shows Martin would at least be competitive, though he'd still be seriously behind in funds.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush's Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat. The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring. While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote. That's had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race. Of course, that doesn't take into account how he'd be running against the former governor of the state. Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go. The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns. The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trails in cash on hand by almost $800K.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running again, but as he is already 84 years old, his age is always going to be a concern. His poll numbers also don't look that good, but no New Jersey politician's numbers ever look really good. He easily beat back a primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews. On the GOP side, it's been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race, before they finally settled on former Congressman Dick Zimmer. Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006. His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him. And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)*
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

*South Carolina is now a safe seat, as Lindsey Graham easily won his primary in June, and Michael Cone ended up barely losing the Democratic primary by 0.6% to Bob Conley, a Republican-turned-Democrat who voted for Ron Paul in the South Carolina primary.

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of August. Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may shake things up, and we won't know exactly what the national mood will be 3 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I'm sticking with them... until my next update, at least.

Senate Guru On Strike for Red State Democrats

Senate Guru — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 20:24:07 GMT

Senate Guru is on strike! What are the Guru's demands? To get the Guru back to blogging, we need to raise seven twenty-dollar bills each for red state Democratic Senate candidates Jim Martin, Jim Slattery, and Ronnie Musgrove on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Your Andrew Jacksons will go toward a great cause: dislodging Shameless Saxby Chambliss, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, and ethically questionable Roger Wicker from the U.S. Senate. So, please, this weekend, send your twenties to these competitive Democrats in red states via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and get the Guru back to blogging!

BruinKid's Senate race rankings

BruinKid — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:10:02 GMT

So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
First off, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I'm using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of March 2008. "Q1" refers to the period of January to March 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for. Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. That's freaking unheard of. He'll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. Rasmussen Reports still shows Warner CRUSHING Gilmore, 55%-37%. And oh yeah, Warner also raised over $2.5 million in Q1, while Gilmore only raised a little over $400,000. To top it off, Gilmore's been burning through the little cash he got, and now barely has $200,000 left, which is more than $4 million less than what Warner's sitting on. This seat's about as safe as you're gonna get.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976. Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. The GOP side features a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce that's been getting nastier lately. So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat! Lots of good recent polling news for Udall pushes this race into the number 2 spot, as Rasmussen shows Udall crushing both opponents by at least 15 points each, and SurveyUSA shows him getting at least 60% in the polls and destroying both challengers by at least 24 points each! Now, once the GOP settles on a nominee, expect a "unity bounce" to occur, which should trim Udall's massive leads a bit. But if the polls still show the GOP candidate under 40% even then, it won't be much of a race. Combine that with Udall having three times the cash on hand as Pearce and Wilson combined, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren't for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008's version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor? Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008. The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-43%. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent. The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the 1st quarter, Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage of $4.3 million, compared to Shaheen's $1.8 million. That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I'm not sure that money advantage is really going to help Sununu all that much.

4. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here. He's Mo Udall's son, and Tom Udall's cousin. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor's office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. At the end of Q1, Udall was sitting on a $4.2 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by half that amount. Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams (no, really, that's his name) got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune's 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen's 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat. (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.) And now it seems that Wadhams has been flipping out at local reporters. Then, the latest Schaffer ad was supposed to show Pike's Peak, a mountain in Colorado. However, the footage in the commercial was actually of Mt. McKinley in Alaska. D'oh! Combine that with Schaffer now being inexorably tied to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and can you say "imploding campaign"? Recent Rasmussen polling shows Udall opening up a 47%-41% lead over Schaffer now, with Schaffer's numbers dropping by a point for each of the last four months. Udall's favorability ratings are also on the rise, while Schaffer's are going in the opposite direction.

5. North Carolina: Kay Hagan easily won her primary two weeks ago, and suddenly the polls have been showing a massive shift in favor of Hagan. Last month she was trailing Elizabeth Dole (R) by double digits. Well, no more. After winning the primary, check out the bounce! SurveyUSA has Dole only up 50%-46% (while underestimating black turnout), and Rasmussen has Hagan leading Dole 48%-47%! What's more, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm specializing in North Carolina polling, shows (.pdf) Dole up 48%-43%, and Civitas Institute (a Republican polling firm) shows Dole only up 45%-43%. These recent polls all show the race to be neck-and-neck now. As a result, Dole has fired her campaign manager and brought gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham's campaign manager, who managed Graham to a 3rd place finish, netting just 9.28% of the vote. Now there's a real winner. In another sign of how much trouble Dole is in, her campaign is asking the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on her race. Um, isn't that's the whole POINT of those campaign committees? She should know, she headed up the NRSC in 2006 when they lost control of the Senate! She had no problem spending NRSC money in all those key Senate races two years ago. She's only doing this because the DSCC has more than twice the cash on hand as the NRSC does right now. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised at the campaign Hagan is running; after all, she is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Alaska: 85-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens. And Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race. His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. Earlier this month, two polls shocked the establishment, when they both showed Begich leading Stevens. Rasmussen shows Begich leading 47%-45%, and Research 2000 shows Begich leading 48%-43%. Stevens still has a substantially bigger warchest, but after 35 years in the Senate, Stevens is pretty much a known quantity to Alaskans. Look for really negative ads attacking Begich coming soon.

7. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R). The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith. Smith seemed worried about Merkley, as he spent around $500,000 in attack ads against Merkley before he even won the primary! Now, Smith still sits on a considerable warchest (over $5 million at the end of Q1), but the latest Rasmussen polling, taken before Merkley won his primary, shows Merkley having gained serious ground since early this year, now only trailing Smith 45%-42%. Interestingly enough, an internal DSCC poll also showed the exact same numbers. It will be interesting to see how much of a "unity bounce" Merkley will get in future polling. In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. With Mike Ciresi having dropped out, the Democratic nominee looks to be comedian Al Franken. The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states. Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in. As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories. SurveyUSA had a poll showing 51% of Minnesotans saying Franken should actually withdraw from the race because of this error. But the Star Tribune showed the tax story didn't make much of a difference to 64% of Minnesotans (compared to only 31% in the SurveyUSA poll). At least one of those polls is WAY off. The election polls now show Franken trailing by 7 points to Coleman. Over five months out from the election, it's still way too early to count Franken out simply over this flap, especially given how strongly he was polling against Coleman earlier this year. Plus, Franken did manage to continue his streak of outraising Coleman in Q1.

9. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R). State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. An early baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%. How things have changed. Early this month, polls from Rasmussen and Research 2000 came out showing Cornyn's lead had shrunk to just four points! He's now under the 50% mark in both of them. However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1, resulting in Cornyn sitting on over $8 million more than Noriega had by the end of March. And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter. This past week, Cornyn gave Noriega some prime ammo to use against him when he was one of only 22 Senators to vote against Sen. Jim Webb's (D-VA) G.I. Bill. Noriega quickly went up with an op-ed slamming Cornyn for abandoning our troops. Well played, sir.

10. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat. (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.) As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there's lots of conflicting data. On the down side, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the staet more red than it used to be. Bobby Jindal (R) didn't even need a runoff to win the governor's race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected. On the plus side, however, Mary's brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin. And this month's win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, has to bode well for Landrieu. Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but still trailed her by almost $3 million at the end of March. And Kennedy will have to burn some of that money against primary challenger Paul Hollis. There's been virtually no polling on this race for some reason, so the most recent one is from April, which shows Landrieu leading Kennedy 50%-38%. A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year... as a Democrat. After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they're suddenly going to say he's the right person for the job? LOL. Still, some more polling on this race would be nice to see (cough Markos cough).

11. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R). But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 52%-42%. It's good news, considering every earlier poll had Allen under 40%. Allen has been hitting the right notes recently, hitting Collins hard over her shameful tenure as chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee from 2003-2007, and doing NOTHING about contractor abuses and war profiteering in Iraq, despite multiple letters from people informing her of serious abuses going on in Iraq. And BTW, the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins. I mean, really suck.

12. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident. But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid. Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky. Netroots un-favorite and wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford easily won the Democratic primary last week. He's ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler. The blogs are, ah, less than pleased. At least it looks like Kentucky Democrats have quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell. McConnell has a HUGE warchest of almost $8 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund. And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read. "[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation. But I don't care how many names he's going to call me, because in January he's going to call me 'Senator.'" Well played, sir. Update: Rasmussen has just released a shocking poll showing Lunsford is leading McConnell 49%-44%! This, plus Lunsford's ability to self-fund, moves Kentucky into a Tier I race.

13. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year's Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won't have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years. Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he's won elected office previously. But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it two weeks ago. So things are changing even in Mississippi. That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). However, Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1 alone, amassing a warchest at the end of Q1 of over $2 million more than the one Musgrove had. Granted, Musgrove didn't have the full three months to fundraise, but until we see the Q2 numbers sometime in July, those numbers don't look so good. But what does look good are the latest polls. An internal DSCC poll showed a shocking result: Musgrove was up by 8 over Wicker, 48%-40%! Marc Ambinder explains why the poll can't be that far off. Then Research 2000 released a poll showing Wicker down by four, 46%-42%. But here's the catch; Markos had them cite the partisan identification. But because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott's term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November, which is consistent with how the DSCC's internal poll asked the question. That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi. As a result, Wicker has already gone up with a TV ad introducing himself to voters.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races. These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the race in mid-March. Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks. Slattery's got a nice 2-minute bio spot on YouTube. Rasmussen gave even more encouraging news this month, showing Roberts with only a 52%-40% lead, when we all thought Slattery would be down by more than that. There are signs that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq. Except... the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991. So... voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war? Um, OK, that's some great Republican logic for you. At the very least, Slattery makes this race somewhat competitive.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush's Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat. The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring. While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote. That's had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race. Of course, that doesn't take into account how he'd be running against the former governor of the state. Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go. Whereas Rasmussen has Kleeb down 55%-40% (which is actually a good starting point for Kleeb), DailyKos's Research 2000 poll has Kleeb down by a wide 58%-31% margin. Kleeb will also need to improve his fundraising significantly, as he trailed by over $1 million in cash on hand to Johanns to end Q1.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats' top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R). But it's unclear if she's running a real campaign, with her last event having been on March 27. But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case. And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired. So if there's a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe. But for now, it's Tier III, and in danger of falling into the "safe" category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn't seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race on March 19th. Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he's run a statewide race before. And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws. Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the crowded primary field. Except... Jones voted for Bush... twice, still doesn't know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling us Democrats "losers". Way to, um, not endear yourself to us. It would be great if Chambliss loses; remember, he ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland's face. If Martin bests Jones in the primary, I'll move this up to Tier II.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he's running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now. His poll numbers also don't look that good, but no New Jersey politician's numbers ever look really good. As a result, Rep. Rob Andrews has decided to try a primary challenge, even though everyone else is backing Lautenberg. But Andrews has this problem of saying that invading Iraq wasn't a mistake, and was one of the biggest Democratic cheerleaders of going to war in the first place. And when Lautenberg blasts chickenhawks as forcefully as he did, why switch to Andrews? On the GOP side, it's been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race. Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush's immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is near impossible, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility. Attorney and Navy veteran Michael Cone is running on the Democratic side. But put it this way, his website doesn't even have a picture of him, and his endorsements page is, ah, copied from an instructions page on how to build a website.

Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus; his GOP opponent Michael Lange had less than $2,000 on hand at the end of Q1. I'm not kidding.)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand after Memorial Day. Things can still change, and we won't know exactly what the national mood will be 5 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I'm sticking with them... until my next update, at least.