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Most people interested in national politics pay a lot of attention to Congress, the Presidency, and the big races in their home states. And being in Washington, most of my writing has been about the big trends having on impact on the overall political climate, and on this year's House and Senate races. But elections at the state and local levels are always critically important in terms of the quality of most people's lives. This year, there are other factors that make these races even more critical.
The first factor, of course, is that the year ends in 0. That means that next year is the year congressional districts, as well as state legislative and many other kinds of political subdivisions, get their boundaries drawn, making all kinds of political mischief not just likely but a certainty. Either political party that has control of all the redistricting levers of power in their states will draw the lines so that they help themselves and screw the other side. While every state's process is a little different, and there are a few where there are non-partisan commissions that have a line drawing role, most of the time in the end who controls the legislatures and Governor's mansions will draw the map so that it works well for them. If Republicans win a lot of gubernatorial races, and take over control in a bunch of new state legislative chambers, that will be a problem for Democrats. Even if we held onto the House in 2010, for example, we could just as easily lose it again because of re-districting two years from now.
The second factor is that increasing partisanship is not just limited to Congress. Who the Secretary of State is governs the election rules in most states, and that person can make a huge difference in who wins the Presidency and other important elections in the next cycle (see Katharine Harris in Florida in 2000, and Ken Blackwell in Ohio in 2004, if you need examples of what I mean).
The third factor is that in some of the big battles coming up in the next year, state and local officials are going to have major, major roles. The Attorneys General are taking a major role in the foreclosure fraud crisis. State Treasurers in most states control where the states invest their money, and could therefore play a huge role in big bank accountability. Governors, insurance commissioners, and state legislators will have a huge amount to say about how health care reform is carried out in their states. Measures to do something substantial about climate change are flowing more from the states these days than the federal government. Local and state elected officials will have a lot to say on very big issues in the years to come.
With that in mind, here are the races around the country I think have the biggest significance in national politics:
Governor's Races.
Here the ones I care about the most:
1. California. Jerry Brown is a quirky old guy- sometimes unfortunately, you never know what he is going to say next. But his out-of-the-box ideas sometimes make a whole lot of sense, and he is progressive a lot more of the time than not. Meg Whitman, on the other hand, teams up with her buddy Carly Fiorina to form a duo of corporate execs who have done more to damage the image of CEOs than I thought possible given how low it already was. Plus, if Whitman wins, she has promised to file for standing in the Prop 8 lawsuit, which could bring down the whole case at the 9th Circuit. The CA Governor's seat is a hugely important prize.
2. Ohio. Ted Strickland is as decent a human being who is also a politician as I have known, and he is running against John Kasich, who has combined a right wing political career with a delightful run at Lehman Brothers right before it collapsed. Ted looked like he was a goner earlier in this cycle, but he has come back strong and is now in a dead heat with Kasich. Ohio is the ultimate linchpin political swing state in Presidential elections, and it sure would be great if we had the Governorship in hand- the party controlling the Governor's mansion has won the state the last 3 Presidential elections.
3. Florida. Another hugely important state in terms of redistricting and Presidential politics, it would be controlled entirely by republicans if we don't win this race. Alex Sink is running against Rick Scott, the sleazy former Hospital Corporation of America exec who had to resign after the company defrauded Medicare. More recently, Scott led the charge for the insurance industry against health care reform. This race has been nail-bitingly close for most of the campaign.
4, Wisconsin. Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is a stand-up guy. He has been behind in the polls until recently but has been showing signs of life, and this race looks like it could be one of the closest in the country. It sure would be nice to win Wisconsin.
5. Texas. I worked with Bill White in the Clinton administration, and while he is no raging progressive, he is one of the most decent guys in politics I know, and was a good mayor of Houston. And, hey, he is running against Mr. Secessionist Rick Perry.
Other Key Statewides
There are a few other really nationally important non-federal statewide races this year that aren't Governor races but really matter. They are:
1. Eric Schneiderman. Eric is a strong, gutsy progressive running for AG in NY, which is the office that has a lot of power to prosecute Wall Street malfeasance. Not surprisingly at all, Wall Street is trying hard to beat Eric, pouring big money into his opponent. This is a very important race.
2. Maryellen O'Shaughnessy. This is the critically important Ohio Secretary of State race. Because of the power this office is given by Ohio law to govern elections, whether this office has a Republican or Democrat can mean a minimum of 100,000 votes in a statewide race. Because Florida's SOS is appointed by the Governor, that means this is the most important elected election official in the country. This race is in the margin of error.
3. Richard Cordray. Cordray is Ohio's AG, running in a hard fought re-election contest, and has been leading the fight to investigate the banks for their bad practices on foreclosure fraud. Wall Street is putting tons of money into his opponent's campaign.
4. Mark Ritchie. Mark is the Minnesota Secretary of State, running in a close re-election fight. Mark has been a leading progressive activist in MN and nationwide for 30 years, and has done a superb job as SOS in MN, especially during the nasty recount battle in the Franken race.
If you want more info, or want to help in general on the most crucial SOS races, the Secretary of State Project is a great place to check.
State Legislative Chambers
It is a re-districting year, and I strongly encourage everyone to keep an eye in terms of what is going on in state legislative fights in your state. The most significant battles in terms of re-districting are:
PA House
OH House
IN House
WI Senate
WI Assembly
MI House
CO House
CO Sen
NC House
IA House
I'm told by sources at the DLCC that they are trying to raise a final $680,000 for the stretch run.
One note here: I don't know most of the state legislative leaders, so it is not clear to me who would best spend your money wisely, but the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is a trustworthy place to send your money and have it spent effectively.
There are plenty of other close races out there, a lot of interesting ones all over the country, but I'll stop there. These are the places I'm following most closely, the ones I think will have the biggest impact on our national politics.
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