Hawaii, of course, is a state. And there's 600,000 Pacific Islanders on the mainland, along with 3.4 million Puerto Ricans, 1.2 million Cubans, 0.8 million Dominicans, and 1.7 million from the West Indies. So there's actually a large number of Pacific Islanders and Caribbean Americans who, if citizens, can vote in the United States federal elections and do have representation.
But Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands are all United States Territories, and they do not have voting representatives in Washington DC, nor can they participate in the electoral college. (Additional US Territories have populations ranging from none to a handful.)
Time for another look at the results maps for Guam, Indiana, and North Carolina:
Click to enlarge.
Overall, the results in all three contests were pretty solidly linked to demographics. Poblano has been busy running the regressions and making predictions, but for those of you who don't get much out of t-values, I've included some maps for several demographics below. And, the usual nationwide views. Finally, some evidence that Clinton's support in Appalachia isn't necessarily about race.
The final and largest village in Guam came through big for Hillary Clinton, almost enough to erase a 204 vote deficit. The final numbers:
Obama: 2,264
Clinton: 2,257
Recount? I wonder what kind of ballots they use in Guam. Hanging chads? The pledged delegates will split 2-2 at any rate. Obama looks likely to secure a majority of the 5 superdelegates however.
UPDATE: A recount is imminent and will include a look at "spoiled" ballots and others that may be missing.
Only three villages left to report and Barack Obama maintains his 53%-47% lead over Hillary Clinton. But, the race is not over because those 3 villages (Dededo, Yona and Agat) account for about a third of the population of Guam. Most of that comes from the largest area, Dededo.
While the overall race is still close, the race for chairman and vice chairman of the U.S. territory's Democratic party is not. Those winning these positions automatically become 2 of the superdelegates for Guam. The posts will be won by the pro-Obama slate where one candidate has endorsed him and the other says he'll support the Guam popular vote winner.
3:25 a.m. — After 13 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains a lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti, 131 in Sinajana and 108 in Agana Heights for a total of 899 votes. Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti, 89 in Sinajana and 105 in Agana Heights for a total of 874 votes.
Wow, this is kind of exciting. Might have to start looking into those 6 outstanding districts. Any Guamanian readers with special insights?
UPDATE: Guam media are offering somewhat contradictory results. This site says this:
13 precincts have reported so far, and Senator Obama has kept his 6 point lead (1007 to 874).
Also, one site says there are 19 districts and the other 21.
With 58% of the vote in, Obama currently leads 53.03%-46.97%, or 768-680, in Guam. In order to net a pledged delegate, with a 2.5-1.5 total, Obama needs to reach 56.25% of the two-candidate vote. That does not appear likely, but what do I know about the voting preferences of the remaining Guam precincts?
And can I just say, for the record, that delegate counting which includes Guam is taking political geekdom to a much higher level than I ever even dreamed of reaching? Pretty sweet.
Polls in Guam closed at 6 a.m. eastern. Eight delegate slots are at stake, each worth one half of a pledged delegate, for a total of four pledged delegates.
Residents of Guam will weigh in on the Obama-Clinton battle tomorrow. Guam is far away. So far away in fact that voting there tomorrow actually begins today in just a few hours (and some parts already voted).
Being so far away you'd figure the campaigns would have overlooked it. You'd be wrong. There's this:
There are 4 pledged delegates and 5 superdelegates at stake. My question: Why is Guam voting? Does New Guinea get a vote too? Japan? I jest. Polls close at 8 p.m. Guam time which translates into 6 a.m. eastern time U.S. I'm sure Chris or Matt will have detailed analysis beginning at 6:30. Or you can check here (NSFW).
