The Pew Hispanic Center just released updated statistical profiles of immigrants (38 million foreign-born residents) and Hispanics (47 million) in the U.S. The profiles include a large spectrum of information such as occupation, industry, income, poverty, or educational attainment by race and ethnicity in 2008, and how that compares to 2000.
When Reagan was first elected, only one percent of voters (and six percent of the population) were Hispanic. Just five years previously, jurisdictions with Hispanic voters had been added to the list of areas covered by the Voting Rights Act.
In 2008, after a rapid increase in participation, the Latino proportion of the electorate had increased almost tenfold (in part because of immigration) to 9% (compared to 15% of the population). Here's a comparison of 2004 and 2008:
Click to enlarge.
The most striking feature of the map is the increase in the Latino electorate in the South and other areas outside the Southwest.
On Tuesday, President Obama announced Sonia Sotomayor as his pick to replace Supreme Court Justice David Souter. Sotomayor could be the first Latina appointed to the Supreme Court. Predictably, attacks and slurs from the Right are already flying. Regardless, Sotomayor would be an excellent choice for the Supreme Court, signaling to Latino/as that the White House is aware of our need for more representation in government.
On November 4th, we Democrats are headed towards a huge win for both Obama and both houses of Congress. Current polls have Obama ahead by 7-8 percentage points and Democratic congressional candidates running well ahead of him. We will likely win 7 Senate seats and 20 House seats, and possibly more. The Republican Party will suffer for the multitude of their economic and moral failings. It will be a wonderful night.
Will Democrats be able to maintain these advantages in future elections? Are the Republicans well-situated to gain seats and power in 2010 and 2012? Or will Republicans be out of power for a generation? I feel that Republicans will most likely be out of power for a generation. Follow me below the fold for the reasons why.
There is no research that I can locate that has studied this question. In Western states with high populations of white Hispanic-identifying groups, Hillary Clinton has received significant support over Barack Obama. This however could be attributed to the political efficacy-or lack thereof-of either candidates.
Last night when I published this diary I left the mistaken impression that a high number of Puerto Ricans self-identify as black Hispanics, and that that might be somewhat predictive of how Puerto Ricans will vote in their primary. In the national study linked below, Puerto Ricans do idenitfy as black Hispanic at higher rates than other latino groups, but that rate is only 8.2 percent. Puerto Ricans chose Jesse Jackson in their primary in 1988. Racial identity was probably not a factor.
Anyway, here is a concise article about a more in-depth study of what and who is referenced when saying black Hispanic or white Hispanic.
Note: The issue of Hispanic racial identity affecting voting patterns is different from the issue of the effect of negative attitudes toward some racial groups on voting, where there is some research.
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