"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;"
-- William Butler Yeats, "The Second Coming"
Last night, Rachel Maddow gave a brilliant introduction to her show, dissecting the Mubarak strategy of first alleging, then fomenting violence in order to represent himself as the only possible savior--and presenting it in the context of other similar examples, from Tiananmen Square to the stymied 2009 Iranian Revolution. It was about as incisive and on-point as American network tv ever gets:
But then, of course, she shifted to live coverage of the unfolding street battles around Tahrir Square, and it became heartbreakingly clear that Mubarak had gotten what he was aiming for: his thugs had created a state of escalating chaos that Mubarak could use to argue that he alone could solve the immediate crisis that he alone had caused.
What also became heartbreakingly clear was the utter and thorough incompetence of the Obama Administration, which flows directly out of his Burkean conservative governing philosophy. Just as Obama's first two years were dominated by his somnambulistic choice of an economic team composed almost entirely of those who had caused, enabled or mis-managed the crisis he inherited, it now seems ominously all-but-certain that his next two years will be haunted by an analogous foreign policy disaster--sharply, painfully at odds with the promising picture he painted early on with his historical Cairo speech early in his presidency.
Burkean conservatism is based on the idea that the existing status quo--based on centuries of tradition--is inherently worthy of deference, as are the elites who preside over it, and that any change should be gradual and incemental, undertaken only after a comprehensive consensus has been achieved. This philosophy never made much sense in Burke's time, itself a period of tumultuous change, and makes less sense in our time. But that is clearly Obama's underlying philosophy, as utterly unsuited to reality as it may be.
Because he shunned creative, critical, inquisitive, independent-minded advisors in virtually every area of governance, Obama has virtually assured that he will fail in one area after another. In foreign policy, as we are seeing right now, he has yet to show any evidence of thinking even one silly millimeter outside the disastrous parameters of Bush's "long war"--and because of that, it is axiomatically impossible for him to come up with a coherent policy response to the problems we face--much less come up with pro-active initiative.
[O]fficials at the Pentagon, the State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the White House were running various scenarios across the region in an effort to keep up with events.
What would the covert American war in Yemen look like if the supportive Yemeni president were to be forced out? Will Mr. Mubarak's successor duplicate his support of the Middle East peace process? Will the shifts in the region benefit Islamic extremists, who will try to capitalize on unrest, or will it show the Arab street the power of a secular uprising?
The obvious problem here is that no one thought to run such scenarios before the last 24 hours. But the deeper problem is the no one seems to have thought about such scenarios and reached the obvious conclusion that the entire foreign policy approach was delusional, and needed to be scrapped without a trace.
None of this means that Obama won't get re-elected. After all, Bush managed that trick, despite an equally abysmal record of failures. But it does mean that people need to shake off their illusions born of listening to Obama speechify. Instead, they need to focus like a laser on what he actually does--and utterly fails to do. He has inherited deeply failed policies on every front, and has proposed only the most modest, Burkean of changes. It is a recipe for catastrophic disaster. Bad as things may stand now, they are poised to get tragically worse.
Where is the Obama people thought they were voting for? Surely, he could save us. If only he actually existed.
On Wednesday, the Mubarak regime showed its fangs, mounting a massive and violent repressive attack on the peaceful crowds in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo. People worrying about Egypt becoming like Iran (scroll down) should worry about Egypt already being way too much like Iran as it is. That is, Hillary Clinton and others expressed anxiety in public about increasing militarization of the Iranian regime and use of military and paramilitaries to repress popular protests. But Egypt is far more militarized and now is using exactly the same tactics.
The outlines of Hosni Mubarak's efforts to maintain regime stability and continuity have now become clear. In response to the mass demonstrations of the past week, he has done the following:
1. Late last week, he first tried to use the uniformed police and secret police to repress the crowds, killing perhaps 200-300 and wounding hundreds.
2. This effort failed to quell the protests, and the police were then withdrawn altogether, leaving the country defenseless.... The public dealt with this threat of lawlessness by organizing self-defense neighborhood patrols, and continued to refuse to stop demonstrating.
3. Mubarak appointed military intelligence ogre Omar Suleiman vice president.....
4. Mubarak mobilized the army to keep a semblance of order, but failed to convince the regular army officers to intervene against the protesters....
5. When the protests continued Tuesday, Mubarak came on television and announced that he would not run for yet another term and would step down in September. His refusal to step down immediately and his other maneuvers indicated his determination, and probably that of a significant section of the officer corps, to maintain the military dictatorship in Egypt....
6. When this pledge of transition to a new military dictator did not, predictably enough, placate the public either, Mubarak on Wednesday sent several thousand secret police and paid enforcers in civilian clothing into Tahrir Square to attack the protesters with stones, knouts, and molotov cocktails, in hopes of transforming a sympathetic peaceful crowd into a menacing violent mob. This strategy is similar to the one used in summer of 2009 by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to raise the cost of protesting in the streets of Tehran, when they sent in basij (volunteer pro-regime militias). Used consistently and brutally, this show of force can raise the cost of urban protesting and gradually thin out the crowds.
Note that this step number 6 required that the army agree to remain neutral and not to actively protect the crowds. The secret police goons were allowed through army checkpoints with their staves, and some even rode through on horses and camels. Aljazeera English's correspondent suggests that the military was willing to allow the protests to the point where Mubarak would agree to stand down, but the army wants the crowd to accept that concession and go home now.
It may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I think that the army has made a grave miscalculation, potentially destroying its heretofore unparalleled positive stature in Egyptian society. Mubarak has nihilistically shown himself to be willing to destroy Egyptian society rather than leave in peace. The army appears to be tacitly backing this nihilistic play.
As Cole has explained in his immediately previous post, "Why Egypt 2011 is not Iran 1979", the fear of a fundamentalist takeover is entirely misplaced in today's Egypt. But if the army blocks this unprecedented broad concensus of the Egyptian people, there is simply no telling what sort of future havoc they are sowing, be it five years in the future or a full generation.
I do not expect any sort of benevolence or far-sightedness from the Egyptian military. Military organizations are not known for such things. But I do hope, simply, that strong enough elements in the Egyptian army value their unique status in Egyptian society to do the right thing, and thus reaffirm that that status has been justly earned, and should live on through history.
The question, really, is whether they warriors--men of honor--or merely good soldiers who do as they are told. We forever hear so much about warriors, and forever see so little.
All the more reason that Egypt's army should surprise us all, and cover themselves in glory.
As Sun Tzu says, the greatest victory is won without firing a shot.
What had been a truce between Israel and the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip seems to have abruptly come to a halt; with the Israelis blaming Hamas and Hamas blaming Israeli oppression of the displaced Palestinians for the simmering hostilities that are now boiling over into military-scale violence.
Before the recent holidays and an immoderate amount of snow buried me in things that could not be done on the computer we had been having a conversation about the strategic importance of our relationship with Egypt. Within that series of discussions we explored the influence of the political opposition, and we considered the fragility of President Mubarak's hold on power.
We also noted the immediate proximity of Egypt to the Gaza Strip.
Today we're going to tie all of that together-and the end result of all that tying is that we better keep a close eye on Egypt, because trouble in Gaza has spilled over into trouble in Cairo....and that's one more Middle Eastern problem we don't need.
Joe the Biden famously warned us that the new President will be tested by a foreign policy challenge--and most of us assumed that challenge would come from somewhere like Pakistan, Afghanistan...or Russia.
New developments in the Middle East are suggesting that the challenge might come from an entirely different direction.
It's quite a story we've been telling--and today's installment involves massive electoral manipulation, intimidation, imprisonment... and a recanting witness who dies in his jail cell.
Hop on board the international train, Gentle Reader, and we'll see what we can learn about a country that is hardly an enemy...that is, in fact, such an ally that they have been willing to torture for us.
It is been but a few hours since Sarah Palin took the stage to have a conversation with Joe Biden, and of course the Nation has a ton of questions.
What will happen now?
How will we view all this in a few days?
How will it affect McCain and Obama?
I don't know...and I'm not even going to try to figure it out right this minute.
Instead, we're going to take a trip halfway across the world to a country that has been essential to understanding the Middle Eastern story, has been at the center of international conflicts time and time again...and has lessons to teach us that, if we learn them well, could make us a much smarter "Foreign Policy Nation" than we are today.
The country? Egypt.
So grab your virtual passport...and after we arrive, there are a few people I want you to meet.
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