House forecast

All 2010 House district polls

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 19:30

Earlier today I offered a look at the current state of open seats in the House.  Now, here is a look at polling in the House.

Here is a complete list of general election trial heat polls (no primaries, no generic ballots) for 2010 House campaigns.  Only polls featuring two announced candidates are included:

Republican-held seats
Projected Democratic pickups: 2.5
District Democrat Republican
DE-AL Carney 47 24 Cullis
FL-12 Edwards 46 42 Ross
SC-01 Miller 44 43 Wilson
OH-02 Krikorian 40.0 45.3 Schmidt
AK-AL Crawford 34 49 Young
MN-06 Reed 37 53 Bachmann
MN-06 Clark 37 55 Bachmann
PA-15 Callahan 27 53 Dent

Democratic-held seats
Projected Republican pickups: 8.5
District Democrat Republican
OH-01 Driehaus 39 56 Chabot
MD-01 Kratovil 39 52 Harris
MI-07 Schauer 40 50 Walberg
NH-01 Shea-Porter 33 43 Guinta
NH-01 Shea-Porter 32 36 Bestani
NH-01 Shea-Porter 33 36 Ashooh
NH-02 Kustner 28 39 Bass
NH-02 Kustner 25 28 Horn
NH-02 Swett 30 37 Bass
NH-02 Swett 30 26 Horn
IN-09 Hill 41 49 Sodrel
NV-03 Titus 40 40 Heck
NV-03 Titus 48 32 Lauer
VA-05 Perriello 44 44 Hurt
VA-05 Perriello 45 37 McKelvey
VA-05 Perriello 44 34 Verga
CO-03 Salazar 46 44 Tipton
SC-05 Spratt 46 39 Mulvaney
SC-05 Spratt 46 37 Spencer
SD-AL Herseth-Sandlin 46 39 Nelson
SC-05 Sandlin 52 31 Curd
NY-01 Bishop 46.5 35.5 Altschuler
NC-08 Kissell 54 38 D'Annunzio
NC-08 Kissell 55 37 Huddleston
ND-AL Pomeroy 46 24 Cramer
HI-01* Case 37 17 Djou
* = Two Democrats and one Republican are running in a single, first past the post election.  Democrat Colleen Hanabusa also has 25%.

Overall, these polls show Republicans gaining a net of six seats.  That is on top of the six seats projected from open seats, and does not include any non-open seat districts not listed here.  Further, given that Delaware at large is projected as a Democratic pickup both in this post and the post earlier today, it is actually a net Republican pickup of 13.  They need 40 in order to retake the House.

Tomorrow, as I continue to move closer to producing an overall House forecast, I will be looking at incumbents who are endangered in districts where no polling has been conducted.  Almost all of these endangered incumbents will be Democrats.  

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More Republicans retiring, but open seats still favor GOP pickups

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 13:45

Confused by the wave of retirements from the House of Representatives?  Hopefully, this post will help sort out the retirement picture for you.

The current partisan composition of the House is:

Democrats: 255
Republicans: 178
Open: 2 (FL-19, PA-12)

Heading into the 2010 elections, 31 of the 433 seats that are currently filled will also be "open" (that is, lacking an incumbent candidate).  While 18 of those 31 seats are currently held by Republicans, and only 13 are currently held by Democrats, Republicans still stand to gain more pickups in those open seats than Democrats.

The Cook Political Report maintains an updated list of open seats.  Here are two lists, one of open Democratic seats, and one of open Republican seats, sorted by Cook's Partisan Voting Index.

Democratic-held open seats (15)
District Cook PVI
TN-06 R +12.7
LA-03 R +11.6
AR-01 R +7.6
TN-08 R +6.1
AR-02 R +4.8
KS-03 R +3.3
PA-12 R +0.6
WA-03 D +0.4
Current polling R +1.3*
NH-02 D +3.3
PA-07 D+ 3.5
HI-11 D +10.8
FL-19 D +14.8
AL-07 D +18.0
FL-17 D +34.2
CA-33 D +34.8
* = Because of the way PVI works, a national ballot lead of 1.27% for Republicans makes a D +0.6 district the tipping point.

Eight of the open districts currently (or formerly) held by Democrats have a partisan tilt more favorable to Republicans than current National House Ballot polling.  By contrast, there are only two open districts currently held by Republicans that have a partisan title more favorable to Democrats than current National House ballot polling:

Republican-held open seats (18)
District Cook PVI
DE-AL D +7.0
IL-10 D +5.8
Current polling R +1.3
FL-25* R +4.6
FL-12 R +5.7
MI-03 R +6.2
MI-02 R +7.4
CA-19 R +8.7
AZ-03 R +9.0
SC-01 R +10.3
OK-05 R+ 12.9
TN-03 R+ 13.4
KS-04 R+ 13.6
IN-04 R+ 14.4
AR-03 R+ 15.7
SC-03 R+ 16.5
MO-07 R+ 17.0
KS-01 R+ 22.7
GA-09 R+ 27.9
* = While Lincoln Diaz-Balart is retiring from the FL-21, his brother, Mario, will switch from the FL-25 and run in the FL-21.  This leaves the FL-25 open, not the FL-21.

Even though there are a three more Republican-held open seats (18) than Democratic-held open seats (15), the negative national environment for Democrats makes Republicans favored to make more pickups (8) than Democrats (2) from these open seats.

There are many other factors in determining how an election goes than PVI and the national House vote.  However, consider this a thumbnail sketch as I work on my first detailed, seat by seat House forecast (coming today or tomorrow).  If this thumbnail sketch holds, then the partisan balance of the House would be Democrats 251--184 Republicans.  So, if Republicans are going to take the House, they are going to have to defeat around three dozen Democratic incumbents.  That is a tall task, but far from impossible.

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Democrats Regain Electoral Footing

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 16:00

Earlier in the week, in my first House forecast for 2010, I looked at generic congressional ballot polling from August 20th through September 17th.  At that time, the most recent survey from the nine polling organizations to publish generic congressional ballots conducted entirely since August 20th showed Democrats ahead by 3.5%.

However, several generic congressional ballots have been released since that time, which cumulatively show the Democratic position improving. Here are the most recent surveys from the eight polling organizations that have published generic congressional ballots which were conducted entirely since President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress. Most of the surveys can be found at

House Generic Ballot Polling, 9/10-9/24
Dem % Rep % Pollster Date Type Partisan
40.8% 35.4%
43% 30% F&M 9/21 Live Phone None
46% 35% Polimetrix 9/22 Internett None
40% 32% Selzer 9/14 Live Phone None
47% 41% GQR 9/16 Live Phone Dem
33% 27% R2000 9/24 Live Phone Dem
43% 40% NBC 9/20 Live Phone None
36% 36% OnMessage 9/10 Live Phone Rep
38% 42% Rasmussen 9/20 Automated Rep
Not only has the Democratic advantage expanded to 5.4%, up 1.9% from a few days ago, but the only two polls showing Democrats in any real trouble are both Republican outfits. The four non-partisan polls in this group show Democrats ahead by 8.8%, identical to their margin in 2008.

The tea-party is over. Since President Obama's speech on September 9th, Democrats have clearly regained their electoral footing. For all the conservative organizing around tea parties since March, Republicans have made up no ground at all in the generic congressional ballot. While Obama's approval rating has dipped, his net job approval of +7.5% is identical to his victory margin in the 2008 election. The only people Republicans have won over are people who already voted for them in 2008.

The problem Republicans face is that their members of Congress and leading spokespeople are engaging in pretty much the same behavior as their more bombastic astroturf / grassroots supporters. The image of "average citizens" yelling at powerful members of Congress plays well. The image of members of Congress engaging in the same behavior--not so much. In a sense, the lack of what Matt Stoller called a "rootsgap" in his farewell article at Open Left is keeping Republicans in a poor electoral position, while it keeps Democrats from passing good legislation. However, the Progressive Block is helping to solve that gap, and today I feel more optimistic about the short-term political future than I have in months.

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Republicans Not In A Position To Retake the House (Yet)

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 12:23

This is the first Open Left House forecast for 2010.  I currently estimate a Republican net gain of 17 seats, for a Democratic majority of 240-195--Chris

Over the past month, nine polling firms have published surveys on the national House ballot. Looking only at the most recent poll from each of those nine pollsters, the results show Democrats maintaining a decent advantage.

House Generic Ballot Polling, 8/20-9/20
Dem % Rep % Pollster Date Type Partisan
41.2% 37.7%
46% 38% Polimetrix 9/15 Internet None
42% 34% Ipsos 8/31 Live Phone None
40% 32% Selzer 9/14 Live Phone None
47% 41% GQR 9/16 Live Phone Dem
34% 28% R2000 9/17 Live Phone Dem
45% 44% Pew 8/27 Live Phone None
36% 36% OnMessage 9/10 Live Phone Rep
40% 41% Rasmussen 9/13 Automated Rep
41% 45% PPP 8/30 Automated Dem
A Democratic advantage of 41.2%-37.7% is a far cry for the supposed Republican wave we keep hearing about. Democrats are, after all, still winning.

These numbers are placed in more context--context which, I might ad, is something that blogs do a far, far better job of providing than any other medium when it comes to electoral forecasting--below the fold. The bottom line this, my first crude House forecast for 2010, is that Republicans are not currently poised to retake the House.  Currently, I project a Republican gain of 17 seats, for a partisan balance of 240-195 in favor of Democrats.

More in the extended entry

There's More... :: (13 Comments, 752 words in story)

Election Forecast Notes

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 18:30

Since final results have not, as of yet, been certified by the fifty Secretaries of State, it is still too early to compare my final poll averages of my Presidential and Senate forecasts to the final results in those states. The initial estimate seems to be that polling averages performed very well in states where there were a lot of polls, but did not do well in the less frequently polled states of Alaska (President, Senate and House showed massive, double-digit error), Iowa (6% error), Nevada (6-7% error) and North Dakota (6% error). Polling averages also seem to have been about 4-5% off in Arizona and New Mexico. Everywhere else, the averages seem to have nailed the final targets by 2.0% or less, even though inaccurate winners were projected in Indiana and North Carolina. Basically, it seems like the more polls in your averages, the more accurate the averages become. Makes sense.

While we wait for final results in the polling average states, I am happy to say that my House Forecast has, once again, done extremely well. If, as appears likely, MD-01 and VA-05 go to Democrats, and with CA-04, CA-44, LA-04, OH-15, and WA-08 still undecided, then Democrats will net 21-26 seats. My final projection was 21-27 seats, so I am feeling like I did pretty darn well. I also did well for each of the category projections (more in the extended entry):

There's More... :: (12 Comments, 404 words in story)

My Final Election Forecasts

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 22:30

This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:

Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain

You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.


  • Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
  • Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
  • Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
  • If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.
Best Guess: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
Guess Range: 21-27
Read the entire final forecast here

Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?

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House Forecast, 10/30: Penultimate Update

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 18:30

The new House Forecast is up. This will be my second-to-last House Forecast, with the final one coming on Monday. This week, I project a Democratic net gain of 19-26 seats, with my best guess at 23. This is down a bit from last week, when I forecasted a Democratic gain of 23-29 seats, with my best guess at 26. As with the Presidential and Senate campaigns, I am projecting a bit of movement back toward Republicans. Still, as with the Presidential and Senate campaigns, the overall picture is still excellent for Democrats. Here are the category changes:

Republican-held seats
  • FL-13 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • FL-21 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • IA-04 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • MD-01 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • MN-03 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
  • MO-06 downgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Lean Rep"
  • MO-09 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • NJ-05 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • NM-02 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
  • NC-05 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
  • NC-10 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
  • PA-03 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
  • PA-15 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • SC-01 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • SC-02 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
Democratic-held seats
  • KS-02 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • ME-01 downgraded to "Likely Dem" from "Uncompetitive"
  • PA-11 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • TX-22 downgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Toss-up"

Read the entire forecast here. No doubt, there will be many readers who consider my projection conservative. However, the local trend over the past few days does not feel strong for us, and so I have downgraded quite a few campaigns. The final projection comes out in four days.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

House Forecast, October 24th

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 19:00

The new House Forecast is up. The current projection is a net Democratic gain of 23-29 seats, up slightly from Sunday's projection of 22-28 seats. If my numbers are correct, the next Congress will feature a partisan breakdown of anywhere from D 259-176 R to D 265-170 R. Here are the category changes:
  • FL-08 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • FL-18 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • ID-01 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • MN-06 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • PA-12 downgraded to "Lean Dem" from "uncompetitive"
So, not too many changes. Read the entire forecast here.

I was very tempted to upgrade Darcy's campaign to "Lean Dem," but the various smear campaigns being run against her, together with the NRCC's decision to hang in the district, kept it at a toss-up. I say, we help blow through that barrier, by throwing a few bucks her way. Daily Kos has already raised nearly $100K for Darcy in the last 24 hours-let's join in the fun!

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House Forecast Update, October 19th

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 19:00

The new House Forecast is up. I currently project a net Democratic gain of 22-28 seats in the House, up from a net gain of 17-25 last week. The forecast features new money numbers for over 100 campaigns, and also five seats that I now classify as "likely" to switch parties (four Dem pickups and one Rep). In the extended entry, I list the 27 category changes.
There's More... :: (2 Comments, 321 words in story)

House Forecast Update, October 11th

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 15:55

After yesterday's rush job, I cleaned up the House Forecast, and posted the latest version online here. I think I have removed all of the mistakes now, and also updated for all of the latest polling information. Next week, I will add in the latest financial figures, thus providing an even clearer picture of where the campaign stands.

The current projection shows a net Democratic gain of 17-25 seats, making it my best forecast for Democrats yet this cycle. This projection suggests a Democratic Congress of anywhere between D 253-183 R to D 261-175 R. Here are the category changes since October 7th:

  • AL-02 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • AZ-01 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • AZ-03 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • FL-16 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • FL-21 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
  • FL-25 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • MI-07 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • MI-09 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • MO-09 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • NE-02 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "uncompetitive"
  • VA-05 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"

In 2006, I underestimated Democratic net gains because I forecasted 2-3 Democratic losses. I am starting to wonder if I am making the same mistake this time. Right now, I forecast Democrats losing 4-7 seats, but that is starting to feel awfully high. When this is all said and done, Democrats have a very good chance of winning as many seats as they did in 2006 (30), and acquiring the 100 seat majority Kos has talked about.

Over the next week, as my schedule clears up a bit, I will be re-introducing several activism campaigns targeted at House and Senate races. This is the election where we need to mop up as many seats as possible, and build an overwhelming majority that can govern for a long, long time.

Discuss :: (8 Comments)

President, Senate and House Forecast Combined Update

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 15:23

I am going to try and update all three forecasts at once. Here goes:

Presidential Forecast
Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 169 Toss-up 31 (270 to win)
National popular vote: Obama 49.6%--41.8% McCain

(Dark Blue (271): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (67): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (31): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (11): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (158): McCain +7.0% or more

State by state details can be found here. The only new polls from yesterday are North Carolina (slight move toward Obama), Ohio (slight move toward McCain), and Wisconsin (slight move toward Obama). The electoral forecasting consensus is now Obama 338-158 McCain, with Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia undecided.

Senate Forecast
Here are the single-digit campaigns, keeping in mind that Democrats starting out with pickups in New Mexico and Virginia:

Democratic Pickups 8
State Type Democratic Republican Dem Cash Margin Polls
New Hampshire Freshman Shaheen Sununu 42% D +9.0 4
Colorado Open M. Udall Schaffer 140% D +5.5 4
North Carolina Freshman Hagen Dole 45% D +4.3 3
Alaska Incumbent Begich Stevens 48% D +2.7 3
Minnesota Freshman Franken Coleman 58% D +2.2 5
Oregon Incumbent Merkley Smith 13% D +2.0 3
Georgia Freshman Martin Chambliss 1% R +2.5 6
Mississippi-B Special Musgrove Wicker 24% R +3.5 2
Kentucky Incumbent Lunsford McConnell 15% R +4.3 3
Texas Freshman Noriega Cornyn 10% R +7.0 1

That projects to a Senate of 58 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and 1 Lieberman. The Democratic total includes Sanders.

House Forecast
The new House Forecast is up. The current projection is a Democratic net gain of 17-21 seats. This is a tightening from the 16-22 seat projection earlier in the week. The error in FL-21 was corrected, and the two big Michigan seats, MI-07 and MI-09, are both moved to "Lean Dem." The new forecast projects the makeup of the House to be anywhere from D 253-182 R, to D 257-178 R. Read  the entire forecast here.

Overall, the three forecasts (President, Senate and House) forecast a complete restoration of the pre-1994 Democratic trifecta, only without a southern majority in either House. In other words, this should be the largest and most progressive Democratic trifecta since the 1960's.

Discuss :: (18 Comments)

House Forecast, 10/7: Dam Starting To Burst

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 19:00

For the second day in a row, I have updated the House forecast. Even though it has only been twenty-four hours, a wave of new polling has resulted in several category changes:

  • FL-21 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • IL-10 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • NH-01 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • NY-29 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • NC-08 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • PA-04 upgraded to "Likely Dem" from "Lean Dem"
  • WI-08 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"

All of these are positive for Democrats. The overall projection is now a Democratic gain of 16-22 seats, up from 15-19 yesterday. This means that the House would be anywhere from D 252-183 R to D 258-177 R.  Read the entire forecast here.

Even with these gains added in, I suspect that many more seats have shifted toward Democrats recently. We are probably very close to the 30 seat pickup of 2006. The electorate is just done with Republicans, at least for now.

Discuss :: (14 Comments)

House Forecast Update, 10/6

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:22

I have updated the House Forecast. Currently, the projection is a Democratic net gain of 15-19 seats, up from a net gain of 13-17 seats last week. A Democratic gain of 15-19 would put the composition of the House anywhere from D 251-184 R to D 255-180 R. Here are the category changes:

  • AL-03 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • FL-10 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Not Competetive"
  • FL-13 downgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Lean Rep"
  • ID-01 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
  • IN-02 downgraded to "Likely Dem" from "Not competitive"
  • NC-08 updated to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • NM-02 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Lean Rep"
  • OH-01 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
  • OH-07 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
  • OH-15 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • OH-16 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
  • PA-10 upgraded from "Lean Dem" to "Likely Dem"

Overall, the changes are coming only slowly. I am suspicious that quite a few seats have shifted strongly towards Democrats over the past two weeks, just as the Senate and Presidential campaigns have done. Why wouldn't it trickle down to the House seats? However, available information is scant in the House, so such a movement cannot by broadly detected.

Check out the entire forecast here.

Discuss :: (5 Comments)

House Forecast Update, 9/30

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 19:13

On the final day of the third fundraising quarter, I have updated the House Forecast. Here are the category changes:

  • CO-04 upgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Dem"
  • FL-24 upgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Toss-up"
  • ID-01 upgraded from "Likely Rep" to "Toss-up"
  • IL-10 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Rep"
  • KY-02 downgraded from "Toss-up" to Lean Rep"
  • LA-01 upgraded from "Uncompetitive" to "Likely Rep"
  • LA-06 upgraded from "Toss-up" to "Likely Dem"
  • MD-01 upgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Toss-up"
  • MI-09 upgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Toss-up"
  • NJ-03 downgraded from "Lean Dem" to "Toss-up"
  • NY-26 upgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Toss-up"
  • OH-07 downgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Likely Rep"
  • PA-06 downgraded from "Lean Rep" to "Likely Rep"
  • WI-08 downgraded from "Lean Dem" to "Toss-up"

Despite all of these changes, the overall forecast changes little. This week, I project a net Democratic pickup of 13-18 seats for an overall total of 249-254. Two weeks ago, I projected a Democratic pickup of 13-17 seats.

Check out the entire forecast here. Also, if you are checking out the forecast, make sure to contribute to one of the excellent candidates on the Open Left Better Democrats page. Even though Act Blue was down for three hours today, we are still more than two-thirds of the way to our goal of 100 donors today. Let's go over the top!

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House Forecast Update, 9/18 Update

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 14:12

The new House Forecast is up. The projection has tightened in focus, as I currently forecast a 13-17 seat Democratic pickup, compared to a 12-18 seat projection two weeks ago. Since the last forecast, there have been many category changes:

  • FL-08 upgraded from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up"
  • IA-04 upgraded from "not competitive" to "Likely Republican"
  • IN-09 upgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic"
  • KY-03 downgraded from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic"
  • LA-07 downgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-up"
  • MS-01 upgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic"
  • MO-09 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"
  • NJ-07 downgraded from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss-up"
  • NC-08 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"
  • PA-11 downgraded from "Likely Democratic" to "Toss-up"
  • TX-07 upgraded from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican"
  • WA-08 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"

You can view the complete House Forecast here.

Also, check out the Better Democrats Act Blue page. Among other great candidats, potential progressive leaders like Darcy Burner (WA-08) and Alan Grayson (FL-08) are campaigns where your small donations can really make a big difference in building a progressive governing majority. Make a difference today.

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