(Oh, Yeah! The SENATE! - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
So with the Alaska primary and the conventions now over, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
(Since much of Chris' analysis of late (No Future, Spend Early etc) hinges on winning a senate supermajority, seeing additional senate analyses is useful. - promoted by Daniel De Groot)
So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
I have been thinking about what Senate races I would most like to see additional dollars going toward. The highest tier competitive races, states like (but certainly not limited to) Colorado and Virginia, will receive a great deal of attention. While I don't want to discourage anybody from contributing to terrific Democratic candidates in these states (take nothing for granted!), I would like to see the map of competitive states expand as much as possible. Many races in states that don't typically see competitive Senate races have the chance to be real pick-up opportunities. But they need our support!
In Virginia, Mark Warner has announced that he is running… for something:
This year's ICS was a terrific success and and what could beat that surprise visit from Mark Warner and his announcement that this time next week, he was "going to be a candidate for public office!"
Since I doubt he will run for US House, jump in the presidential campaign, or start a five-year campaign to primary Jim Webb in 2012, the options for Warner appear to be running for US Senate in 2008, or running for Virginia Governor in 2009. My guess is that this early announcement means he is running for Senate, as the Virginia Gubernatorial election is more than two years away. That is fine with me, since it would basically assure a Democratic pickup in Virginia.
A political logjam in Nebraska that has forced a slew of potential U.S. Senate candidates to tread water for months will begin breaking Monday, when Chuck Hagel formally announces he will not seek re-election.
Democrat Bob Kerrey, Republican Mike Johanns and others likely will begin unveiling their plans for the 2008 race in the coming weeks or, possibly, days.
No matter who runs on the Republican side, Bob Kerrey could potentially win this seat. I hope he runs, because I would like to see as much pressure on Republicans in as many seats as possible around the country. Kerrey would cause further headaches for already severely pressured Republicans.
In Idaho, according to Survey USA, Larry LaRocco can make a competitive race out of it, depending on who the Republican nominee is. While well-known Republicans Mike Simpson and Dirk Kempthorne would apparently start with huge leads on LaRocco, there is no guarantee at all that either would run or, if they did run, that they would win the Republican nomination. Against four other Republicans, LaRocco is either close or statistically tied. So, it appears that Democrats can even be competitive in Idaho now, but it will depend largely on who the Republican nominee is.
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Getting the right matchup in all three of these seats will help us toward our broader goal of more and better Democrats. This is the case even if any of the Democrats in question are not viewed as among the "better Democrat" category by some. I would argue, for example, that no matter what some int he blogosphere might think of him, Bob Casey Jr.'s extremely strong showing during the 2006 campaign freed up a lot of Democratic resources for closer wins in Rhode Island, Virginia, Montana and Missouri. In the same vein, added pressure in the form of nearly guaranteed pickups (Warner in Virginia), surprisingly competitive elections (LaRocco in Idaho) or conservative Democratic candidates for an open seat in a conservative state like Nebraska (Kerrey), will all help out candidates like Merkley or Novick in Oregon (both progressives), Franken or Ciresi in Minnesota (same story), Allen in Maine, or the eventual Democratic nominee in New Hampshire (I think Jay Buckey would be a good progressive there). Further, key primary challenges in places in Connecticut can not only help Democrats become better, but can also breed more Democrats nationwide by finally convincing them to run against the war. More Democrats can lead to better Democrats, and better Democrats can lead to more Democrats. I point this out as one way of explaining why I have no problem engaging in numerous primary challenges on behalf of progressives, while simultaneously backing conservative Democrats in general elections against Republicans. More and better Democrats is not an either / or process for progressives, and I am happy to work on the "better" just as I am happy to work on the "more."
Update: Bob Kerry certainly does not look very conservative when his voting record is examined. It seems I misspoke by calling him a conservative.
Sen. Larry Craig has all but dropped any notion of trying to complete his term, and is focused on helping Idaho send a new senator to Washington within a few weeks, his top spokesman said Thursday.
"The most likely scenario, by far, is that by October there will be a new senator from Idaho," Craig spokesman Dan Whiting told the Associated Press.
The only circumstances in which Craig might try to complete his term, Whiting said, would require the overturning by Sept. 30 of his conviction for disorderly conduct in a men's room at the Minneapolis airport, as well as Senate GOP leaders' agreement to restore Craig's committee leaderships posts taken away this week.
Those scenarios are unlikely, Whiting said.
That was a brief comeback. I had hoped he would stick around.
After short-circuiting consideration of votes on some bipartisan proposals on Iraq before the August break, senior Democrats now say they are willing to rethink their push to establish a withdrawal deadline of next spring if doing so will attract the 60 Senate votes needed to prevail.
Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, said, "If we have to make the spring part a goal, rather than something that is binding, and if that is able to produce some additional votes to get us over the filibuster, my own inclination would be to consider that."
Of course, such a plan will neither reduce the number of troops in Iraq, nor result in increased political pressure on Republicans. So I really have no idea what it accomplishes. More on this later.
"Rather than picking up votes, by removing the deadline to get our troops out of Iraq you have lost this Democrat's vote.(…)
"I cannot and will not support any measure that does not have a firm and enforceable deadline to complete the redeployment of combat troops from Iraq. Only then will Congress be able to send a clear message to the President that we are changing course in Iraq, and a message to the Iraqis that they need to get their political house in order.
"I urge my colleagues to join me and declare their opposition to this measure."
Opposition like this makes me feel good, and once again progressives will have to be a swing block that prevents weaker legislation from passing on the first try. However, at the same time, I admit that the way this entire fight is shaping up is making me very depressed, as I really don't know what do to as an organizer, or what the path to victory is.
The New York City-based Transport Workers Union of America endorsed John Edwards on Thursday, saying the former North Carolina senator was the most electable of the Democratic presidential candidates.
Edwards was to be in New York City to accept the endorsement.
There are about 200,000 memebrs of this union, very few of whom live or work in early states.
Democrats Well Ahead In Ohio The latest poll from Quinnipiac shows Clinton and Edwards well ahead of every Republican, and Obama well ahead of Thompson and Romney but tied with Giuliani and McCain. In the primary, Clinton has a three to one advantage. On the Republican side, Giuliani leads Thompson 21%-15%.
New Clinton and Obama Ads
Both focus on "change." Here is Obama:
Here is Clinton:
I think I prefer Clinton's ad, but neither strike me as real standouts. Matt has more on this above.
If Thompson waits until September 6 to formally declare his candidacy, he wouldn't have to disclose any of the cash given to his campaign until January 31 -- after many major contests are over, including the Iowa and Nevada Caucuses, and the New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida primaries.
Why is he choosing that particular Chick-fil-A to make this announcement? Well, Chick-fil-A is owned by major right-wing donors, South Carolina is a key early state, Bush road has a nice ring to it, and that franchise also is easily accessible from routes 20,.26, and 126. Also, the Chick-fil-A's near the college and universities in Columbia will be swarming with drunk 20 year olds that time of night.
VA-Sen: Awaiting Word From Warner
At 2pm today, John Warner will announce if he is seeking another term in the Senate, or if he is retiring. According to the Examiner, he is retiring. If he does retire, and if Mark Warner runs for the open seat, as has been widely rumored, this would immediately become a top Democratic pickup opportunity. Even without Virginia, Democrats already seem to have at least five other good pickup opportunities in Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine.
ID-Sen: Larry Craig expected to retire soon
To no one's surprise, Larry Craig is receiving a huge amount of pressure to resign, and probably will either today or tomorrow. The homophobic double standard between Vitter and Craig would usually allow me to have some sympathy for Craig, except that the guy is so homophobic himself that I can't be moved to care at all.
I will provide updates in this space when more information is available on Warner's decision.
Update 2: John Warner is retiring. Virginia now has an open seat in the US Senate for 2008. If Mark Warner runs, this becomes a clear Democratic pickup chance.
So the opportunists jump into the fray. Pat Toomey, Club for Growth president and BFF of crazy Idaho Rep. Bill Sali took aim yesterday against Idaho's other representative in Congress and fellow Republican, Mike Simpson, one of Idaho's most popular Republicans.
Bill Sali as the Republican nominee would almost immediately make the ID-Sen race competitive, considering that he barely won the ID-01 last year by 5%. Even if this is still a longshot for Democrats, the need to defend Idaho will stretch already thin Republican Senate resources down to the bare bone, allowing us to win seats elsewhere. Larry Larocco for Senate.
"Much of the focus in the primary scheduling fight up to now has been on the Democratic National Committee's moves to penalize Florida by not seating its convention delegates because of the state's decision to move up its primary. But the Republican rules are just as stringent, and the national party said yesterday that it would not hesitate to enforce them."
So, if Republicans are doing exactly the same thing as Democrats, why was the press coverage so much more extreme for Democrats? Over at MyDD, Jerome explains:
Look, no hissy-fit quotes by anonymous disgruntled RNC members, no grandstanding by Rules committee members and no bad PR in Florida…. The Florida Republicans just shrugged and stated the obvious: ""I am confident that all 114 delegates from Florida will be seated," said Jim Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party."
As a party, we Democrats seem very good at turning even minor, procedural disagreements into media-friendly flame wars between local water-cooler tyrants. The primary calendar dispute didn't have to look as bad as it did for us. However, we are Democrats.
KY-Sen: Kentucky AG Stumbo to Challenge McConnell
Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to run for Kentucky Senate. Stumbo is not the ideal choice for progressives, given that he was one-half of the ultra-conservative Lunsford ticket in the gubernatorial primary. The progressive bench in Kentucky is not very large, and it seems the better candidates (Beshear, Mongiardo) will be occupying the Governor's mansion instead of the US Senate. Stumbo is, however, the Kentucky AG, which shows he can win statewide. Even if Stumbo doesn't win, this is another major pressure point Democrats can use to win seats elsewhere. Reaching 60 Senate seats might be possible in 2008, if everything goes well and we get candidates for the strong pickup opportunities in New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia.
SD-Sen: Tim Johnson Returns
Speaking of the Senate, Tim Johnson made his first, post-illness public appearance in South Dakota yesterday. You can watch the video of his appearance at Welcomebacktim.com.
"Congress" is an abstract concept that voters never seem to collectively punish. "Democrats" and "Republicans" are abstract concepts that voters seem to punish on a regular basis. Right now, Democrats hold gaping leads on Republicans nationwide, meaning that low congressional approval has not damaged Democratic electoral opportunities. This also means that any campaign urging Democrats to not support the same policies that Republicans support is doing Democrats a favor. Republicans are really unpopular, and Democrats who want to vote like Republicans are committing electoral suicide.
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