Rather than slamming quick hits with half a dozen entries, here are six polls released today worth noticing:
Indiana Senate looks terrible for Democrats. Both leading contenders (Evansville Mayor, Jonathan Weinzapfel, has apparently bowed out) to be the Democratic nominee in Indiana are losing by at least 10% to every potential Republican nominee, according to Rasmussen reports. So, it looks like keeping Evan Bayh's seat will be a real longshot for Democrats. Groovy.
I will attempt to have a full Senate forecast up later today. Tomorrow at the latest.
There appears to be a strong anti-Palin vote, as President Obama's numbers go up to 50% when matched against her. Against everyone else, he is steady at 45-46%.
Nevada health care poll. The PCCC / DFA / CREDO coalition that is conducting the Senate whip count on the public option has released a new poll on health care in Nevada. The key findings are what people following polls closely would expect:
The overall health care bill is unpopular;
The public option is popular;
Voters don't really care about process issues like reconciliation and the filibuster.
Nothing untoward about Fire Dog Lake House polls. Nate Silver analyzes the Fire Dog Lake polls of four House districts. He concludes that there was nothing fishy about the polls, just a significant pro-Republican House effect due to methodological decisions made by SurveyUSA (not by FDL)
So I don't think there's anything untoward that's gone on here -- although there do appear to be some house effects in these congressional district polls resulting from methodological decisions that SurveyUSA has made.
I am with Nate here, and I am pretty much done criticizing individual polls myself. After my research on election forecasting showed that just taking the simple mean of all polls conducted over the last fifteen days of a campaign produced the most accurate results around, I've pretty much got a deaf ear now when it comes to complaints of bias or methodological flaws in any single poll. Forecasting works out best when you look at them all equally, rather than sifting out polls you don't like. Poll averaging is more accurate than any individual pollster.
House ballot update. After forgetting for a few days, I have finally updated the National House Ballot again. I am trying to get a seat by seat House forecast completed soon. Apologies for the delay.
A seventh poll worth looking at, but already mentioned in Quick Hits, comes from the Illinois Senate race. According to an internal poll, Democrat Alexis Giannoulias leads by 4%.
Eager to put the scandal-tainted standoff behind them, Senate Democrats accepted Roland Burris as President-elect Barack Obama's Senate successor on Monday and said they expect to swear in the new Illinois senator this week.
"He is now the senator-designate from Illinois and, as such, will be accorded all the rights and privileges of a senator-elect," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois said in a joint statement after Senate lawyers determined that Burris' paperwork met Senate requirements to be seated.
The two senators said they expect Burris, a former Illinois attorney general, to be sworn in and seated this week, barring objections from Republicans.
Hard to imagine that there will be any objections from Republicans. If anything, they will salivate over Burris as a potential 2010 opponent, due to his connections with Blagojevich. They are right to do so, making it necessary to defeat Burris in the Senate primary next year, should he decide to run.
Still, in the meantime, it is best that Burris be seated. For one thing, it is a perfectly legal appointment. Second, it is a distraction, and there is much real governing that we need to focus on instead. Third, it is best not to start a precedent of rejecting Senate appointees for political reasons. That is a can of worms that Republicans would be certain to use in the future, once their numbers in the Senate increase.
This is the right outcome. Seat Burris, but let's work to make sure someone else in the Democratic nominee for Illinois Senate in 2010.
Harry Reid was on Meet the Press this morning and, in regards to the Roland Burris situation, actually broke some real news on the program. This includes denying a report from yesterday that he urged Blagojevich not to appoint any of three leading Illinois African-American politicians to Obama's vacant seat. No transcript yet, so here is the AP (more in the extended entry):
A new story in the Chicago Sun-Times indicates that, the day before Blagojevich's calls were taped, Harry Reid pushed Blagojevich not to appoint the three leading African-American politicians in Illinois (after Barack Obama, of course). According using "electability" as the rationale, Reid did advocate on behalf of two candidates, one of whom, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, attempted to remove Blgaojevich via judicial coup. If the Senate's move to block Roland Burris wasn't already viewed as a political move rather than one of ethics, this story should put an end to that once and for all.
-I've learned that Gov. Blagojevich is poised to name former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris to replace President elect Barack Obama in the Senate on Tuesday afternoon. The embattled Blagojevich is fighting impeachment charges in the Illinois House for, among other reasons, trying to auction off the Senate seat held by President elect Barack Obama. Blagojevich called a press conference for 2 p.m. Chicago time at the Thompson State of Illinois Center.
Burris was the first African American to win statewide office in Illinois when he was elected comptroller, serving from 1983 to 1991. He served as Illinois Attorney General from 1991 to 1995. Burris previously ran and lost bids for the U.S. senate and governor. Senate Leader Harry Reid (D-Nv.) had said he would ask the Senate not to seat any Blagojevich appointee, in order to make sure the seat is free of taint.
I don't think it will be easy for Reid to refuse to seat Burris, unless Obama publicly supports the refusal. Refusing to seat a history-making African-American to the Senate, especially one who will be a caretaker and who appears to have kept himself squeaky clean in an often corrupt state
My home state's culture of political corruption is well documented. Roland Burris managed to build a career in politics in this state without falling into that muck. He is, to the best of everyone's knowledge, squeaky clean, and he's highly respected. He's 71 years old, so I wonder if he intends to serve as a caretaker. But he's an honorable guy, well liked by people across the state in both parties. It's a stroke of brilliance by Blagojevich in my opinion.
Reid might still refuse to seat Burris, but this is a fairly shrewd move by Blagojevich. Refusing to seat Burris will not come without at least some backlash, especially if the seat stays vacant instead.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says negotiators are discussing a new plan to save General Motors and Chrysler LLC. Reid, D-Nev., wouldn't give details but said it would be different than the plan passed by the House on Wednesday night or the alternative put forward today by Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker - which would place stricter demands on automakers and the UAW.
Right now, it is not believed that Reid and Senate Democrats have the 60 votes needed to end debate and approve the legislation as written. Reid said another senator had offered the new proposal but didn't say who.
But, he said, if negotiators are able to work out the proposal "the bill would overwhelmingly pass the Senate," perhaps as early as Thursday night, and then be sent to the House for consideration.
Obviously, the devil is in the details, which are currently not available. However, we have already given a lot away, so I am wary of what further concessions have been made.
NASA administrator Mike Griffin is not cooperating with President-elect Barack Obama's transition team, is obstructing its efforts to get information and has told its leader that she is "not qualified" to judge his rocket program, the Orlando Sentinel has learned.
In a heated 40-minute conversation last week with Lori Garver, a former NASA associate administrator who heads the space transition team, a red-faced Griffin demanded to speak directly to Obama, according to witnesses.
In addition, Griffin is scripting NASA employees and civilian contractors on what they can tell the transition team and has warned aerospace executives not to criticize the agency's moon program, sources said.
Warning people not to criticize certain governmental programs, restricting the flow of information, and calling the new administration "not qualified." Delightful. Time to fire Griffin. Obviously, this is a prime and particularly gratuitous example of why personnel matter: some personnel simply don't follow executive policy. Also, last year at Netroots Nation I made the case for why the netroots should care about space policy. You can read it here.
Also, the most recent poll in for the Democratic primary shows Attorney General Lisa Madigan at 32%, Illinois Veteran's Affairs head Tammy Duckworth at 18%, Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. at 11%, and Schakowsky at 10%. Jackson has fallen from a large lead two weeks ago, after he was identified as "Senate Candidate #5" in the Blagojevich investigation. He has not, however, been accused of any wrongdoing and is not under investigation.
In the increasingly heated battle for Secretary of the Interior, Raul Grialva (excellent choice, endorsed by over 100 environmental orgs) and Mike Thompson (bad choice, corporate Blue Dog) both appear to be out:
Last week, California Rep. Mike Thompson, D, and Arizona Rep. Raul M. Grijalva were considered top contenders, but sources close the transition say that "problems and concerns" have arisen with both candidates. New names emerging this week to fill the Interior slot include two former assistant secretaries of the Interior in the Clinton administration: Kevin Gover, now director of the Smithsonian's National Museum of the American Indian, and John Berry, now director of the National Zoo.
Looks like a compromise choice will be made. At least such an appointment will have loads of experience, and not suck.
However, can I just say that I do not enjoy having to cheer for my conference in addition to cheering for my team? I already expend enough emotional energy supporting Syracuse, that having to support the other 15 teams in the Big East when they play non-conference games is simply exhausting. Further, the other teams in the Big East are Syracuse's main rivals, so why should I even cheer for them at all when they are playing non-conference opponents? I don't get this aspect of sports fandom. Why do the teams you cheer against for most of the year suddenly become teams you support just because they represent your conference or division in the playoffs? Doesn't make any sense to me.
This is an open thread, too. Let those thoughts in your head seep out into the Internet in comment form.
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on Tuesday called for a special Illinois election to fill President-elect Obama's Senate seat, instead of leaving it to arrested Gov. Rod Blagojevich.(...)
"If the allegations are proven true, he has clearly abused the public trust," Durbin said of Blagojevich. "I think the Illinois legislature should enact a law as quickly as possible calling for a special election to fill the Senate vacancy of Barack Obama. No appointment by this governor under these circumstances can produce a credible replacement."
There should be a special election to fill Obama's seat. One of the main reasons is, obviously, that no appointment could be made without a cloud of corruption surrounding it now.
But really, there should be a special election to fill all vacant Senate seats, not just this one. While there will be an undeniable whiff of corruption surrounding anyone Blagojevich picks at this point, there is an undeniable whiff of aristocracy surrounding our method to replace vacant Senate seats in general. Democracies elect people and vote on stuff. Monarchies and oligarchies appoint people and make decisions in small groups of elites. (And then they often make aristocratic appointments like Caroline Kennedy.)
Our Constitutional method of filling vacant Senate seats is a hold-over from a far more aristocratic version of the Senate. It was written back when Senators weren't even elected by popular vote. It's bad enough that states are granted Senate seats instead of people, thus leading to the embarrassment of our "democracy" where California (population 36,553,215) has as many Senators as Wyoming (population 522,830), where Vermont (population 621,254) has as many as neighboring New York (population 19,297,729), and Pennsylvania (population 12,432,792) has as many as neighboring Delaware (population 864,764). Click here for more population figures.
That population discrepancy is bad enough, so let's stop compounding it by appointing Senators instead of electing them. If we want to export democracy around the world, let's start by improving democracy here at home.
Several weeks ago, I was at the bar in the National Democratic Club and Jesse Jackson, Jr. sat down a few stools away. He was apparently on a phone call with a hands-free set.
The conversation turned to Obama's seat if he is elected and he mentioned that Schakowsky was angling for it but that he thought it was "too soon" (ironic since this would be replacing Obama's seat).
Jesse Jackson, Jr. was elected to Congress in Illinois four years ahead of her... So does that mean he wants the seat? I guarantee it.
This email confirms a couple of things. First, Jan Schakowsky clearly is trying very hard to be Obama's replacement should he become President, and apparently this isn't even much of a secret in Illinois political circles. Second, as great as she is, Schakowsky is not the only potentially excellent replacement for Obama. If you want a ahrd core, progressive backbencher, Jesse Jackson Jr. would fill that role nicely.
So, now we have two potentially excellent replacements, Schakowsky and Jackson. Also, there have been rumors about two not quite so great replacements, Rahm Emanuel and Tammy Duckworth. Should be some interesting maneuvering. Frankly, I really wish this was a public primary, because this is the sort of primary campaign where I would jump at the chance to get involved.
Word is U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who's angling to be Obama's replacement, has been grabbing the Excedrin bottle lately -- ever since Duckworth's name appeared in Sneed's column.
Now, if you can get beyond the rather absurd self-aggrandizement of the columnist who, while writing in the third person, claiming that Schakowsky has someone suffered physical pain as a result of his column, you can focus on the very hopeful news that Rep. Jan Schakowsky is looking to be Obama's replacement in the Senate.
This is a hopeful sign. Obama in the White House, and Schakowsky in the Senate, would be a significant improvement on the current political situation. Not only would be get the trifecta, but we would continue to increase the budding progressive network in the Senate, too. She is the clear cut choice for Obama's replacement, and I'd love to find some ways to help her out.
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