( - promoted by Matt Stoller)
Two elections of national note tonight: the Mississippi Democratic presidential primary, and the special election for IN-07. The former is expected to be an easy win for Obama, while the later is expected to be a fairly easy win for Democrat Andre Carson, son grandson of the late Julia Carson who previously held the seat.
IN-07 results can be found at Blue Indiana and the Indianapolis Star. Polls close, I believe, at 7 p.m., eastern.
For Mississippi, results can be found at the websites for most national news outlets. Polls close at 8 p.m., eastern. Also, even though the polls have not closed yet, we can already project the delegate count reasonably well (see here and here for more):
- At-large and PLEO delegates: Of the 11 delegates determined on the statewide vote, the split will be either 7-4 or 6-5, with I believe 59.1% being the over / under line for Obama. Or at least I think that is how it works, and the at-large and PLEO are not determined separately. If they are determined separately, than 6-5 Obama is a virtual lock. Updated: They are counted separately. This will be 6-5 Obama, unless he shockingly reaches 62.5% of the viable candidate vote.
- MS-01: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama, but probably 3-2 Clinton. Update: Looks like Clinton narrowly (3%) hangs on for 3-2.
- MS-02: Probably 5-2 Obama. Update: 5-2 Obama it is.
- MS-03: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama. Update: 3-2 Obama. I should have favored Obama here all along. This was never close.
- MS-04: Probably 3-2 Clinton. Update: In a surprise, Obama is hanging on for a 3-2 lead here right now. Can he hold it? The lead might be due to his precincts reporting early. This is the difference between 19-14 and 18-15. Right now, I'll go with 19-14.
Overall, that means we start with a delegate count of 17-13 in favor of Obama. Three "loose" delegates could go either way, and two of those three lean toward Clinton. While that does not seem like much to watch for, there are two interesting sub-plots. First, whoever wins two of the three "loose" delegates wins the most pledged delegates for March. Second, if Obama wins the state by more than 20,000 votes, he takes the overall popular vote lead in even the most favorable count for Clinton. A more complete count shows that Obama is already ahead.
There, don't you feel better now that I gave you the results before the polls closed? Oh yeah, and "momentum" does not matter at all here, because there are six weeks until the next primary.
This is an open thread for tonight's election results, which I will not be updating closely.
Update: OK, Carson is ahead 52%-45% with 73% reporting, so it looks like a win but not a very comfortable one. Obama is ahead 59%-39% with 78% reporting, which is right at the dividing line for a number of delegates. The delegate count currently stands at 17-14, with two delegates left to report. Obama needs both to win March, but his 60,000+ popular vote victory tonight guarantees that he is ahead in even the most pro-Clinton popular vote count.
Update 2 2.5: Looks like the Mississippi delegate split will be 18-14, pending the results of MS-04. Without the remaining delegate from MS-04 included, the March pledged delegate total stands at 207-207. Also, Carson's lead is expanding, and now sits at 53%-44% with 77% reporting. That is good enough for me to call it, even though I can't find any news outlets who have done so.
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