Larry Lessig has launched his exploratory committee and two sites. One of them is Lessig08.org, for his exploratory committee, and the other is Change-Congress. He has made three points the centerpiece of his campaign - no money from PACs or lobbyists, no earmarks, and support for public financing. I threw in $25 as I strongly support public financing of campaigns. Whether he decides to run is still an open question, he's only considering it.
Here's Lessig's announcement video. He's a remarkable communicator, and he is under no illusions that this race is a simple undertaking.
One of the most interesting special elections of all time could be shaping up in California's 12th Congressional district just below San Francisco to replace Tom Lantos. Jackie Speier has quickly locked up establishment support and cleared the field for the April 8th special election date.
California's 12th, which takes in western San Francisco, is a Democratic bastion that CQ Politics rates Safe Democrat. Voters there gave 2004 Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry 72 percent of the vote and President Bush 27 percent. Lantos took 76 percent of the vote in his 2006 election and never received less than two-thirds of the vote in any general election since 1984.
Lantos endorsed former state Sen. Jackie Speier as his successor after his January retirement announcement. Speier quickly cleared the field of at least one potentially competitive challenger, state Sen. Leland Yee, and has landed endorsements from the state's two Democratic senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer , as well as Rep. Anna Eshoo of the neighboring 14th District, Rep. Mike Thompson, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Speier, an attorney, ran for Congress nearly 30 years ago to succeed her late boss, Democratic Rep. Leo Ryan. Speier was one of several individuals who accompanied Ryan on a 1978 trip to Jonestown, Guyana, to investigate reported abuses at the People's Temple commune. Members of the group attacked Ryan and others at the airstrip as the group attempted to fly home. Ryan and five others were killed. Speier survived five gunshot wounds.
The district is heavily Asian-American, so clearing the field of Yee looked like a strong political move for Speier. That is, unless, another white challenger jumps into the race, someone like Larry Lessig who brings his own base of support. If Yee were in the race, my guess is that it would basically be impossible for Lessig to win, since he would not be able to consolidate the anti-establishment vote.
The themes in the race would be fascinating. Already we see a 'Change Congress' site set up and linked off of the Draft Lessig blog, and Lessig has focused of late on corruption as a root cause of poor decision-making. Speier is a very tough candidate, so beloved in the distrct that she has a bullet train named after her. She was willing to take on Lantos in a primary, mostly on local issues but with some critiques of his foreign policy stances, so she is quite a fierce and ambitious competitor with high name ID.
I like both of these individuals very much, and I would love to see Lessig jump in. The Silicon Valley area is seeing a surge in local Democratic activity and organizing, as it is a blue area that had let its grassroots atrophy. That's a network into which Lessig would probably have to tap to compete with all the establishment support from Boxer and Feinstein, both of whom are radically out of touch in their own unique ways.
Rep. Tom Lantos, a California Democrat and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, announced on Wednesday that he will not seek re-election this year because he has cancer of the esophagus.
Lantos, 79, is the only Holocaust survivor elected to Congress and is known for his dedication to human rights issues. He is serving his 14th term as a House member.
While I don't doubt that health reasons fueled this decision by Lantos, I also think that he would have run for re-election had Jackie Speier not been such a serious threat in the primary. With only the primary threat or only the health issues, Lantos probably seks re-election. With both, retirement looks like the better option.
Outside of foreign affairs, Lantos was actually a very good member of Congress. However, foreign affairs was his focus, given that he was chair of the foreign affairs committee. It is important that the next chair of the foreign affairs committee is more of a progressive in that policy area. I also hope that Speier's is a strong progressive across the board, and not just on foreign policy.
I have a pretty full day today, which means light blogging. But I noticed this story.
Former state Sen. Jackie Speier (D) has hired Alex Tourk to manage her likely primary challenge of Rep. Tom Lantos (D) in the San Francisco-area 12th district.
Tourk previously managed San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom's mayoral campaign.
Also likely to be a part of any Speier Congressional campaign are Democratic pollster Jim Moore and Democratic consultant Bill Cavala, whose specialties include general and direct-mail consulting. Cavala and Moore are both based in Sacramento.
Meanwhile, Lantos appeared to respond to the budding threat from Speier - who outperformed him significantly in a recent poll conducted for her campaign - by sending out a full color, multipage piece of franked mail to his constituents.
The mail piece touted his Congressional agenda, including his moves opposing President Bush's Iraq War policy. Lantos voted to give Bush the authority to use force in Iraq but has since become an opponent of the president's policy.
Ah, the blurring strategy. This is a very standard move by incumbents when challenged.
Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA) might be on the verge of facing a really tough primary challenge. State Sen. Jackie Speier claims she has an internal poll that shows her beating Lantos in the primary by a 57%-27% margin. Speier has some name recognition built up after she ran for Lt. Governor in 2006, narrowly losing the Democratic primary, but she has not yet officially announced a campaign against Lantos.
If a primary challenger leads by 30 points before the campaign even starts, then the campaign is probably over before it begins. Incumbents don't come back from thirty point deficits. That just doesn't happen.
One thing is for certain: at 80 years old, Lantos is going to be replaced soon, and a Democratic primary challenge from his left on things like Iran and torture seems like a good way to do it. Assuming that the poll is accurate and genuine, and it appears to be both, it looks as though that is on the verge of happening.
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