There are rumors Jim Ogonowski, who narrowly lost to Niki Tsongas in MA-05 in 2007, is going to challenge John Kerry. Kerry doesn't have terrific approvals in Massachusetts, but I don't see how Ogonowski comes close. If he does it, John Kerry will have to spend more time in his home state. But that's about it. The Republicans have been murmuring about starting their own 50 state strategy, but recruiting on their side has just been dismal. Ogonowski really is the best they have, which does not speak well of their chances in 2008.
Well, the MA-05 special election is finally taking place tomorrow. The most recent poll on the campaign in this D +10.7 district shows a fairly close result looming:
A couple of notes on this poll. First, IVR polls like Survey USA tend to capture more young votes than other survey methodologies, which would mean that this poll is inflating Ogonowski's numbers since he leads 2-1 among younger voters. However, this poll only projects 10% of the electorate under 35 years of age, which is either low or probably about right. So, it is possible that Ogonowski is closer than this. Second, there are basically no undecideds, but one can usually expect about half of voters who say they are going small third party to break with one of the two major parties. Normally, they would break for the "challenger" party, in this case Republicans, but with over 80% of current third-party supporters identifying as either moderate or liberal, and with Tsongas leading both categories, those voters do not seem fruitful ground for Ogonowski. Add it all up, and my best guess is Tsongas by six. That would make this campaign close, but not quite, the equivalent of Paul Hackett's 3% loss in the Republican +13 OH-02 back in 2005.
Now, let me ask what on earth is happening with younger voters in this district? No matter the small sample size, a 54-27 advantage for Ogonowski among voters under 35 is eye-popping. Let me venture a guess that a Democratic candidate over 60 years old, who appears to have won the nomination because her late husband was a Senator who ran a presidential campaign to the right of Bill Clinton, in an environment where Democrats in Congress are unpopular among their base, isn't exactly the best candidate to appeal to younger voters. In fact, it should be clear by now that Niki Tsongas wasn't a very good candidate to appeal to pretty much any voters. She almost blew a 25 point lead in the primary despite a million dollar fundraising advantage and, yeah, she is only in this position because of her late husband. The whole thing reeks of an ineffective, local Democratic machine that operates based on loyalty rather than merit or ideas, and which hasn't been tested by any serious opposition in a long time. For example, when we targeted the former member of Congress in this district in the Use It Or Lose It campaign last year, the four million dollar cash on hand Marty Meehan, a local editorial board called the campaign a "a nasty shakedown by rotten political scoundrels." This seems to be a very insular environment that is producing some mediocre candidates.
Throughout the country, most of the Democratic Party is run by ossifying, New Deal era local machines of this sort. It is reflected in Washington, D.C., where the party is actually run somewhat like a local machine (seniority, dues, loyalty, insularity, etc). The struggles that Tsongas is facing in what should be a very, very easy election is just one example of the ineffectiveness of these machines as electoral vehicles. Republicans are collapsing nationwide, and it would appear that only the ineffectiveness of the Democrats can save them right now.
That's the mailer that Jim Ogonowski sent out that should be hitting the district in the next few days. It's the cover he's using for opposing SCHIP expansion, so expect to see this all over Republican messaging in the next year. The Republicans are testing out messaging with the Ogonowski campaign.
The flyer is not true - the Lowell Sun didn't make those arguments. Still, I am curious if the MA-05 electorate is receptive to this messaging. It's a conservative Democratic district that has not been targeted by Republicans for some time on a national level, though the vicious race-baiting happened on a gubernatorial level in 2006 against Deval Patrick.
The combination of blurring on Iraq, calling for bipartisanship, and nativism is an expected formula for Republicans who have to run against their party without losing their base. Tsongas is becoming more progressive and partisan, and she's not that well-liked by the Lowell Democratic insiders. If you're in the area, consider helping her out. It's going to be a low turnout election, so volunteering will have an outsized impact.
You can always find more at Blue Mass Group. And if you know the district, give us your thoughts in the comments.
I'm hearing rumors that Ogonowski is closer than 10 points to Tsongas in the MA-05 special election set for 10/16, and there's some worry in the commonwealth among Democrats. Bill Clinton was in town for Tsongas, drawing huge crowds, which suggests this isn't the gimme contest it should be. Tsongas's opponent, Ogonowski, is very effectively going after her with a message that the problem with government is excessive partisanship while rhetorically tacking to the left of her on Iraq, health care, and Social Security.
Jim Ogonowski said, "Niki Tsongas is another Washington insider who will say anything to get elected. With the polls saying she is losing with seniors, Niki Tsongas now says she opposes increasing the retirement age. This is very different than what she said in June. I will never vote to raise the retirement age for social security."
When polling shows that voters don't agree with Niki Tsongas on a position, she does what all Washington politicians do - she changes her position. This is just politics Washington style, another political trick designed to hide the fact that Niki Tsongas doesn't hold any real convictions. She thinks that Washington values are a winning play in the 5th Congressional District. Her pandering coupled with her partisan rhetoric make it crystal clear who Niki Tsongas really is: yet another Washington D.C. insider who will put Washington values and special interests over the people's interests.
While Niki Tsongas calls her friends in Washington for more partisan attacks, Jim Ogonowski will continue to look for bi-partisan solutions to the problems America faces. Government is too big, too corrupt, and too partisan. The people of the 5th Congressional District looking for leaders who are hardworking, down-to-earth, and willing to work across the aisle to find bi-partisan solutions for America. They don't want another career politician who thinks a broken Washington works. Niki Tsongas is part of the problem. Jim Ogonowski is the solution for fundamentally changing the way Washington does business.
If Democrats continue to make arguments, as Mark Warner, Steny Hoyer, and Jeanne Shaheen do on excessive partisanship in Washington, they will continue to empower people like Ogonowksi. The guy would vote against SCHIP, and he's closing in the district.
Tsongas will be a capable Democrat in Congress. She's going to be a reliable vote for mainstream Democratic values, though she is not particularly great on TV. Her centrist credentials (inherited from her husband) are hurting her in this race, allowing Ogonowski to paint her as an elitist insider even as she is much more populist than he would be in policy terms.
It's something to watch out for, and if you live in MA-05, go to Niki's website and sign up to volunteer.
UPDATE: I've done some calling around. There is real concern here.
I just got a press release from Republican Jim Ogonowski that validates two of Chris's concerns. One is his post on 'Warning Signs' in MA-05, and the other is his post on the Republican blurring strategy on Iraq. Ogonowski is running against Bush, on a Petraeus withdrawal, and is criticizng Tsongas for wanting to keep troops in Iraq indefinitely. The argument, that Tsongas's desire for an irresponsible withdrawal will necessitate returning troops to the region, is crazy, but Republican grassroots are pretty psyched about it and it makes sense as a pitch to independents, with whom Ogonowski is competitive.
Tsongas just got through with a nasty primary, with vicious negative attacks coming from a Lowell machine that will probably support Ogonowski. She didn't have the pull of the progressive base in the primary, because they got behind Eldridge. I hope that changes, which it seems to be as it becomes clear that Ogonowski will vote badly on things like SCHIP. If you want to know why I got so up in arms about Warner's messaging against partisanship, it's because that's exactly the message Ogonowksi is running on. It's also, incidentally, exactly what hyperpartisans like Mitch McConnell are running on as well.
Here's the press release.
OGONOWSKI TO BUSH: DEMAND IRAQI GOVERNMENT ASSUME MORE CONTROL
Tsongas wants to keep troops in Iraq indefinitely, Ogonowski calls to bring all the troops home safely and responsibly
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