Those who are regular visitors to this space know that I post stories across the country, and to do that I have to follow stories from a number of states.
Because I post at Kentucky's Hillbilly Report, I've been paying particular attention to the Rand Paul campaign, and the news from the Bluegrass State (via "The Rush Limbaugh Show") is that Paul's planning to write his own balanced budget proposal for the Federal Government.
But there's a catch.
He doesn't plan on doing it until after the election.
Well, now, why in the world would a guy who's running for office based on his really good ideas want to hold back the best one?
That's not a bad question, and if we make the effort we can probably figure out the most likely answers.
Wow, it wasn't but a few short hours when I wrote this diary about how Mitch McConnell had told Rand Paul that he really just needs to shut the hell up. Well, the Senator from Communist China might have known what he was talking about in reigning in the mad doctor with the twisty curls. You see, every time Rand Paul opens his mouth a cherished Republican belief that they have worked so long and hard to disguise spews forth. Now, Rand Paul thinks we fat and sassy working folks just make to much money!!
KY-Sen: Rand Paul flips on discrimination in private hiring: A spokesperson for Rand Paul has confirmed to Greg Sargent that Paul thinks the federal government should ban private businesses from discriminating on the basis of race in their hiring practices. This is the exact opposite of what Paul has stated in the past, not what he has said in the past, and just last night he said that the federal government did not have the right to prevent private businesses from refusing to serve people on the basis of race. So much for Rand Paul at least being principled.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen shows Rand Paul ahead by 25%. Their polling in Kentucky has been particularly henke, to the tune of a 14% house effect so far this year. Non-Rasmussen polling in Kentucky current shows Paul ahead by only 1%
NV-Sen: Angle takes the lead among Republicans: A new poll shows wingnut fave Sharron Angle ahead in the Republican primary for Nevada Senate. Tomorrow, a Rasmussen poll will show her beating Harry Reid by 22 points in the general election.
PA-Sen: Sestak takes the lead: The first post-primary poll in Pennsylvania shows Joe Sestak ahead of Pat Toomey, 46%-42%. And its from Rasmussen. Don't get too excited though, because next week Rasmussen will show Toomey ahead by 18%.
Also, according to Rasmussen polling, you trail your Republican neighbor by 37%, even though you have higher name ID in the neighborhood. Other polls show it to be a toss-up. Discuss.
It is raining today here in Philadelphia. Doubtful Specter will get the turnout he needs. The 15-day average is used in this election because of dramatic recent trends, and the high volume of polling on the campaign.
If no candidate reaches 50%, there will be a June 8th run-off. That's the goal today. On the Republican side, John Boozman could well reach the 50% threshold. He is polling at 46%, with 15% undecided.
While I don't feel quite as good about using the snarky blue-red coloring on this campaign, there it is anyway. On the Republican side, Rand Paul leads by 16.3%.
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Polls in Kentucky start closing at 6 pm, and completely close at 7 pm. In Pennsylvania, polls close at 8 pm. In Arkansas, polls close at 8:30 pm. All times listed here are eastern.
Got any last minute predictions? The polls suggest Sestak, Critz, Lincoln (just over 50%, that is) and Mongiardo all win squeakers. However, primary polling and House polling really does not have a very good track record, so it's all up in the air.
(Note: While Lincoln leads, if neither no candidate reach 50%+1, there will be a June 8th runoff. With a third candidate close to 10%, that is very possible)
Rand Paul is in a reasonably close primary for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Kentucky. According to the two polls on the campaign, he trails Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson by an average of 13%. With the money bombs that the Paulites will send his way, with the teabaggers looking to become a force in Republican primaries, and with the general anti-establishment mood in the air right now, he could really win that nomination.
Given this, as a progressive, I have to wonder if there is a good reason why I shouldn't be contributing to Rand Paul's campaign for Kentucky Senate. My quick analysis suggests that such a contribution would be for the good of the cause.
First, if Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination for Kentucky Senate, current polling indicates that it would improve the chances of the Democratic nominee to win the campaign. In every poll, Paul performs worse than Grayson against both potential Democratic candidates.
Second, if Rand is anything like his father--and he certainly seems to be--then even if he were to win the general election, he would defect and vote with Democrats more often than any Republican Senator outside the state of Maine. On the votes that matter, Rand Paul's father, Ron, votes with progressives more often than any other Republican in Congress-- except for Rodney Alexander who was a Democrat until mid-2004 (Ralph Hall, third among Republicans who vote with progressives, was a Democrat until 1995). With a lifetime progressive crucial votes ranking of 23.50%, Paul even leaves supposed Republican moderates like Mike Castle (15.40%) and Mark Kirk (10.30%) in the dust. Paul towers over life-long Republicans when it comes to voting with Democrats.
Grayson, by contrast, would just be another drone in the Republican Borg collective, who we could count on for exactly zero votes of any importance. Paul would legitimately be much, much better than Grayson.
Hell, even the Democrats who might win would probably only be reliable on 50-70% of the most important votes, which is only about twice as many as we would get from Rand Paul. Further, we wouldn't have spend massive amounts of DSCC money, or water down legislation even before it reached the floor, to appeal to / defend Rand Paul's seat. We would get his 25% progressive voting record for free.
Not that I am saying I would work for Rand Paul in the general election. Just that I am saying I don't see why I shouldn't become a Rand Paul activist in the Republican primary. This is a Republican primary where the two main potential outcomes have a clear difference in quality for progressives. Whether or not he goes on to win the general election, Rand Paul securing the Republican nomination for Senate in Kentucky is a win-win for progressives. Why shouldn't I be working to make that happen?
(Oh, Yeah! The SENATE! - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
So with the Alaska primary and the conventions now over, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
(Since much of Chris' analysis of late (No Future, Spend Early etc) hinges on winning a senate supermajority, seeing additional senate analyses is useful. - promoted by Daniel De Groot)
So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
Last week, I blogged about a nasty fight in Kentucky between progressive businessman Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford to take the Senate nomination. It's an incredibly important race, because the winner will take on Mitch McConnell, and Lunsford can't beat him. Lunsford's nursing home company defrauded Medicare of a few hundred million dollars, and he keeps losing statewide primaries, but for a variety of reasons, the Kentucky Democratic establishment is behind him (along with Chuck Schumer).
After Fischer pointed out Lunsford's horrible record, he gained a quick 13 points in the primary voting universe from 47-9 to 43-18. Both Fischer and Lunsford have been on the air, and Lunsford has now been pounding Fischer with strong negative ads. Still, in the last week, Fischer has gained another six points according to the last Survey USA poll to 41-22. That's a 19 point race, which looks steep until you consider that three weeks ago the race showed a 38 point gap.
I did a bit of math, and it looks like Fischer is gaining between .75 and .9 points a day with the ongoing air war, with his rate of gain slowing. That makes sense, as his TV campaign introduced himself to a lot of voters who didn't know him and so a large boost was inevitable. The counter-attack by Lunsford, and the endorsement by top Kentucky Democrats slowed his momentum. Fischer simply can't put it away without seriously ratcheting up his TV buys, but he can and is closing the gap extremely quickly. By 5/20, this should be a five point race. Moreover, Lunsford is dropping, which means that he will probably end up with a floor in the high thirties while Fischer will have a floor in the low thirties. That's election day. And that means this one could come down to the undecided voters.
Fischer does have a shot here, though it is uphill. There is more to come in this race.
The Democratic primary in Kentucky for the Senate nomination is remarkable. I got this over email from my favorite in the race, Greg Fischer.
While Democratic Senate candidate Greg Fischer greeted a reported 3,000 guests at Saturday's Ruby Laffoon Democratic Dinner, Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford refused to attend. Instead, Lunsford reportedly choose to attend the Dubai World Cup in Dubai, United Arab of Emirates...
U.S Senator and Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Governor Steve Beshear, Democratic Party Chair Jennifer Moore and Fischer attended the Laffoon Dinner along with thousands of Democrats from across Kentucky. Fischer also attended the First District Democratic Woman's Club Meeting in Princeton, Kentucky earlier that day.
Lunsford also just bought a new golf villa in Arizona. He is hated by Kentucky Democrats for engaging in these kinds of incomprehensibly and offensive activities, like hanging out with Arab sheiks in Dubai instead of going to Democratic events a few months before a primary.
One of my disappointments this cycle has been Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell, while vulnerable, looks like he's going to cruise to reelection without a real challenge. Bruce Lunsford, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is probably the worst presumptive Democratic nominee in the country. Lunsford is basically a corrupt conservative. He is a donor to Mitch McConnell, and made his money defrauding Medicare as an operator of nursing homes. Chuck Schumer is pushing him aggressively because he knows that Lunsford can self-fund, forcing McConnell to waste money instead of using it to campaign for other Republican Senators. It's an exceptionally cynical ploy on all accounts, cutting out the grassroots in Kentucky that absolutely loathe Lunsford.
A variety of candidates have decided not to enter the primary, including Ben Chandler, a cautious politician beloved in Kentucky because of his family legacy, and Andrew Horne, the veteran who couldn't raise enough money to compete. But one candidate that came onto my radar recently is Greg Fischer, a progressive businessman who is well-liked in the state. I noticed him when he endorsed A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, and after doing a little more digging, it's possible that he could be a real surprise.
I'm keeping an eye on his end of quarter numbers. There is no way Lunsford beats McConnell, but a genuine progressive like Fischer actually could. The primary is May 20, and it's an uphill battle as Lunsford has locked up labor support. But the Presidential primary is screwing things up and could drive up real and significant turnout. Lunsford is not well-liked among Democrats because of his endorsement of Republican governor Ernie Fletcher and his support of Mitch McConnell, and basically everything about him. But he has name ID and institutional backing.
So we'll see. But this is a promising development, and I'm keeping my eye out for Fisher.
This is JR Lentini, Andrew's campaign blogger. I wanted to share this with the OpenLeft community, and let you know that the next Senator from Kentucky is standing up for the Constitution.
Tomorrow, Chris Dodd will be standing up for all of us. While Mitch McConnell is trying to protect his contributors, Senator Dodd is working to protect our rights.
Andrew just posted this statement on our campaign blog:
As a Marine, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. The FISA bill currently under debate in the Senate is a gift only to those who've violated our Constitutional rights. I strongly oppose retroactive immunity for those companies that helped George W. Bush illegally undermine our Fourth Amendment protections.
I take national security very seriously, but our nation's true greatness comes from our liberty and our laws, neither of which we can afford to abandon.
Senator Dodd is a patriot who understands we will always be better served by protecting our rights than by abandoning them. I urge every member of the Senate who cares about our Constitution to stand with Chris Dodd in opposing what is essentially a legislative pardon for the big telecom firms.
So the opportunists jump into the fray. Pat Toomey, Club for Growth president and BFF of crazy Idaho Rep. Bill Sali took aim yesterday against Idaho's other representative in Congress and fellow Republican, Mike Simpson, one of Idaho's most popular Republicans.
Bill Sali as the Republican nominee would almost immediately make the ID-Sen race competitive, considering that he barely won the ID-01 last year by 5%. Even if this is still a longshot for Democrats, the need to defend Idaho will stretch already thin Republican Senate resources down to the bare bone, allowing us to win seats elsewhere. Larry Larocco for Senate.
"Much of the focus in the primary scheduling fight up to now has been on the Democratic National Committee's moves to penalize Florida by not seating its convention delegates because of the state's decision to move up its primary. But the Republican rules are just as stringent, and the national party said yesterday that it would not hesitate to enforce them."
So, if Republicans are doing exactly the same thing as Democrats, why was the press coverage so much more extreme for Democrats? Over at MyDD, Jerome explains:
Look, no hissy-fit quotes by anonymous disgruntled RNC members, no grandstanding by Rules committee members and no bad PR in Florida…. The Florida Republicans just shrugged and stated the obvious: ""I am confident that all 114 delegates from Florida will be seated," said Jim Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party."
As a party, we Democrats seem very good at turning even minor, procedural disagreements into media-friendly flame wars between local water-cooler tyrants. The primary calendar dispute didn't have to look as bad as it did for us. However, we are Democrats.
KY-Sen: Kentucky AG Stumbo to Challenge McConnell
Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to run for Kentucky Senate. Stumbo is not the ideal choice for progressives, given that he was one-half of the ultra-conservative Lunsford ticket in the gubernatorial primary. The progressive bench in Kentucky is not very large, and it seems the better candidates (Beshear, Mongiardo) will be occupying the Governor's mansion instead of the US Senate. Stumbo is, however, the Kentucky AG, which shows he can win statewide. Even if Stumbo doesn't win, this is another major pressure point Democrats can use to win seats elsewhere. Reaching 60 Senate seats might be possible in 2008, if everything goes well and we get candidates for the strong pickup opportunities in New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia.
SD-Sen: Tim Johnson Returns
Speaking of the Senate, Tim Johnson made his first, post-illness public appearance in South Dakota yesterday. You can watch the video of his appearance at Welcomebacktim.com.
"Congress" is an abstract concept that voters never seem to collectively punish. "Democrats" and "Republicans" are abstract concepts that voters seem to punish on a regular basis. Right now, Democrats hold gaping leads on Republicans nationwide, meaning that low congressional approval has not damaged Democratic electoral opportunities. This also means that any campaign urging Democrats to not support the same policies that Republicans support is doing Democrats a favor. Republicans are really unpopular, and Democrats who want to vote like Republicans are committing electoral suicide.
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