Kay Hagen

Senate Forecast, 8/22: Franken and Hagen Catch Up

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 16:32

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 6 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 6
State Type Democratic Republican Dem Cash Margin Polls
Lock D Pickups: 1
Virginia Open Warner Gilmore 4370% D +25.0 2
Likely D Pickups: 3
Alaska Incumbent Begich Stevens* 48% D +15.0 2
New Hampshire Freshman Shaheen Sununu 42% D +9.0 1
New Mexico Open T. Udall Pearce 542% D +8.0 1
Lean D Pickups: 1
Colorado Open M. Udall Schaffer 140% D +6.7 3
Lean R Pickups: 1
Georgia Freshman Martin Chambliss 1% R +6.0 2
Minnesota Freshman Franken Coleman 58% R +3.0 3
Mississippi-B Special Musgrove Wicker 24% R +5.0 2
North Carolina Freshman Hagen Dole 45% R +5.0 5
Likely R Pickups: 0
Idaho Open LaRocco Risch 27% R +10.0 1
Kentucky Incumbent Lunsford McConnell 15% R +11.0 3
Maine Incumbent Allen Collins 61% R +15.0 1
Oregon Incumbent Merkley Smith 13% R +9.0 2
Texas Freshman Noriega Cornyn 10% R +12.0 2

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (9): Alabama (Sessions), Kansas (Roberts), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Wyoming-1 (Barrasso), Wyoming-2 (Enzi)

Democratic Held: Democratic Losses, 0
State Type Democrat Republican Dem Cash Margin Polls
Likely D Losses: 0
Louisiana Incumbent Landrieu Kennedy 204% D +17.0 1
New Jersey Incumbent Lautenberg Zimmer 315% D +9.8 4

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (10): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

Analysis in the extended entry.

There's More... :: (12 Comments, 213 words in story)

Directing Lower Ticket Cash This Cycle

by: Matt Stoller

Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:12

I just got a form fundraising email from JB Poersch, the head of the DSCC and Chuck Schumer's acolyte.  Poersch is quite good at political strategy, and he's discussing Senate candidate Kay Hagen in North Carolina versus Liddy Dole as 'the sleeper' race of 2008.  It might be, and could bring us to 58 or 59 in the Senate.  Much as the open secret of South Carolina is that Lindsay Graham is closeted, the open secret of North Carolina is that Liddy Dole is senile.  She could lose if she acts too much like a bumbler.

Here's Poersch:

Kay Hagan is a great Democrat and a great candidate to topple Dole.  As a leader in the state Senate, she has developed a statewide reputation as a moderate who can run and win in November.  Her favorability ratings are already as high as Dole's, and Hagan doesn't carry nearly the same level of unfavorable baggage.

That said, Hagen supported retroactive immunity for telecom companies, didn't know if she would support Mukasey for Attorney General, and would not support children's health care (SCHIP) if it were funded by tobacco taxes (unlike the rest of NC's Congressional delegation).  She might be a good Democrats, but she's also conservative.

Party organizations like the DSCC support conservative ideas because it is easier to raise money from business with conservative candidates while going to liberals, offering nothing and saying 'we need to get to 60'.  There's going to be a lot of chatter about getting to 60 votes in the Senate, and there's a good reason to want to get there to break filibusters.  But the reality is that the Senate is going to be conservative regardless of whether we're at 60 votes or 58, with people like Max Baucus Chairing powerful committees.  We need more liberals in the Senate, not just more Democrats.  We ought to go directly to the more liberal Senate candidates, like Al Franken in Minnesota, Novick/Merkley in Oregon, Tom Allen in Maine, and Tom Udall in New Mexico.  Let the telecom PACs fund the DSCC and candidates like Kay Hagen, they get good value for their money.

Discuss :: (31 Comments)
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