Ever since the Haiti earthquake happened, it has invited quite a few comparisons to the disaster brought about in New Orleans by the federal flood. There are even those in the mainstream media who have asked if this quake is going to turn out to be Obama's "Katrina."
This is not surprising because there are some similarities in the situations--for example, the slowness in rescuing and getting aid to the survivors--which reminds casual observers of the way New Orleanians had to wait a week for food, water and rescue after her levees failed. Also, these catastrophes are manmade--Haiti's because of shoddily-constructed buildings, New Orleans' because of poorly-built and maintained levees--both of which had been disasters waiting to happen.
And this is why: He must hate Louisiana and her people. Coburn, whose state obviously never has had a major disaster (judging from his behavior) introduced an amendment to the Senate healthcare bill stripping it of the $300 million Mary Landrieu had had added to help Louisiana make up for what would be a catastrophic Medicaid shortfall.
Talk about kicking somebody when they're down--Louisiana seriously needs this money.
The California Legislature approved a bill last week to extend voter registration privileges to 17-year-old citizens. If signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the bill would help put California youth on the road to a lifetime of democratic participation.
Access to voter registration continues to be an issue in the U.S. where only 71 percent of the voting eligible population is registered to vote. With young, low income, and minority citizens lagging behind in voter registration and participation, this fraction of registered voters only represents a skewed picture of the American people.
In 2000, Florida's disastrous effort to purge former felons from voter rolls resulted in the disenfranchisement of hundreds if not thousands of legitimate voters and clearly influenced the outcome of the presidential contest in that state. History may repeat itself this November with states taking potentially reckless and unlawful measures to clean voter rolls before Election Day.
Despite growing political interest among Americans, this November millions of people who "live, work and raise families in our communities" will be denied the right to elect our next president as a result of a past felony conviction. Felon disenfranchisement has raised concerns among advocates and legislators that such laws further perpetuate disparities not only in the electorate, but also in society.
Over the last two months, there have have been 3 special elections in which Democrats have been fighting to take back seats from the Republican Party - IL-14, where Democrat Bill Foster was elected to Congress in what used to be Republican Speaker of the House Denny Hastert's seat; MS-01, where Democrat Travis Childers is seeking to take over Republican Roger Wicker's seat in a special election run-off to be held May 13th; and here in LA-06, we have Don Cazayoux, who is seeking to do what no Democrat has done here in 33 years ... represent the Capital area of Louisiana in Congress.
When I sat down to read what was being said in the world today, I came across Barack Obama's speech in Indiana the night of the Pennsylvania primary. It was the speech we haven't heard from Barack during this 14 month campaign ... as it was a call to action for Democrats.
The money quote, to me, in a speech full of them, was this:
We can seek to regain not just an office, but the trust of the American people, that their leaders in Washington will tell them the truth. That's the choice in this election.
That's what this election right here in Baton Rouge is about. Do we want to listen to the lies of man who knowingly did business with David Duke back in 1996? Or do we want our politicians to tell us the truth about our country, and the choices we will have to make over the next few years?
I'm voting to be told the truth, which is why I am voting for Don Cazayoux. Yeah, that's an endorsement, as Don will level with you on the issues. He'll tell you where he stands, and if he needs more time to look at the issue, he'll tell you that too. Isn't that we should expect from our leaders?
I have decided to discontinue my personal pledged delegate count, and just go with the pledged delegate count from the Green Papers from now on, since I agree with their count 100%. For superdelegates, I will still be using Democratic Convention Watch, which is the best source out there. Although it was not a factor in choosing these two sources, it is kind of cool that two DIY sources are the best places to go for accurate delegate counts on the 2008 nomination campaign. Who needs big media, anyway? Here are the latest totals:
The Green Papers pledged delegates, plus my superdelegate detailed count, give overall totals of Obama 1,682--1,524 Clinton. With a magic number of 2,022.5 (the two vacancies reduce the magic number by 1), Obama needs only 41.5%, or 340.5, of the remaining 821 uncommitted delegates to win the nomination.
The delegate projection for the remaining primary and caucus states is as follows, based on current polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.6%
48.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
44.3%
51.3%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
266
300
Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948--1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan. In order to have any chance, Clinton is going to need to significantly outperform current polls in remaining states, come up with a convincing new argument for superdelegates, and somehow finagle a good deal for Michigan and Florida. And even if she pulls all of that off, each aspect of which is unlikely, Obama will still be favored because he will have more than zero delegates in Michigan. In other words, it would be a shocker if Obama wasn't the nominee, and if the nomination campaign wasn't functionally over by the end of June.
I am unavailable to blog this evening, but voting has begun in the Washington caucuses. I imagine that results will be coming in almost any minute now. Any major news website should suffice.
Washington caucuses, 78 pledged delegates. Starts at 4 p.m. eastern.
Nebraska caucuses. 24 pledged delegates. Starts at 11:00 a.m. eastern, ends at 9:30 p.m eastern. Results will trickle in throughout the day.
Louisiana primary, 56 pledged delegates. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.
Virgin Islands party convention, 3 pledged delegates. Not sure when we will have results
I'll be on the road for a bit, but I will also be around to post occasional updates on results later tonight. Personally, I am hoping for decisive results in all of today's events. More information on these contests can be found here.
Are we getting ready to vote again already? Really? Man, this never ends. Super Tuesday counting is expected to end today, so I guess we will be receiving new delegate totals every day from now through Wednesday, inclusive.
There has been very little polling for the numerous contests to take place over the next five days, but here is what little post-Iowa information we have:
Washington caucuses, February 9th. Starts at 4 p.m. eastern: Obama 53%--40% Clinton. Survey USA, 2.2-2/3. 78 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and both candidates are on the air and campaigning on the ground in Washington. With a caucus and a double-digit lead in the polls, Obama is heavily favored here.
Louisiana primary, February 9th. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern: No polls to report, ever. What polls there are wouldn't be of any use anyway, as we saw in the primary challenge against William Jefferson in late 2006. I can report that there are 56 pledged delegates at stake, and that Jesse Jackson won here in 1988. Both candidates are campaigning on the ground and over the airwaves. Obama is once again favored. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.
Nebraska caucuses, February 9th, ends at 9:30 p.m.: Once again, no polls to report, ever. We will probably see results trickling in from Nebraska all day tomorrow, since the caucuses start as early as 11:00 a.m. eastern in some places, and end as late as 9:30 p.m. in others. Obama has dominated caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. He also won a little caucus that was held in Iowa five weeks ago. This is big time Obama territory, and Clinton is not even visiting the state. I expect another 2-1 Obama victory in pledged caucus delegates from here.
Virgin Islands, convention, February 9th: Beats me how the three pledged delegates will break. Expect either 2-1 Obama or 2-1 Clinton. Then again, as telephasic points out in the comments, it will probably go 2-1 Obama, given that the island is 76% African-American.
Maine caucuses, February 10th, starts as early as 1 p.m. eastern: There hasn't poll a from here since April, when Clinton led 39%-22%. Of course, Clinton led everywhere back then, so who knows. No clear favorite, with 24 pledged delegates at stake. This is probably Clinton's best chance for a win this week.
Democrats Abroad, February 12th, already underway: The balloting for Democrats Abroad ends on February 12th, and we should know the results before any other polls close on Tuesday. Again, I wouldn't presume to guess how the seven pledged delegates at stake will divide up.
Maryland primary, February 12th: The only recent poll from Maryland, taken January 6th through January 9th, showed Obama well ahead, 39%-26%. 70 pledged delegates are at stake here, and Obama is favored.
D.C. primary, February 12th: No polls from D.C., but Obama did win the caucuses 519 to 271. I'll take that as a sign that Obama is heavily favored in this contest where 15 pledged delegates are at stake.
Virginia primary, February 12th: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Obama is also heavily favored in Virginia. A newly released poll from Insider Advantage shows Obama ahead 52%-37%, and a Survey USA poll from January showed Obama ahead 59%--37%. Clinton is campaigning here, but this certainly looks like all Obama. 83 pledged delegates are at stake
Obviously, Obama looks really good over the next five days, where 360 pledged delegates are at stake, total. The goal for Clinton, I think, is to limit the damage by winning a state or two (possibly Maine or Virginia?), and keeping Obama's pledged delegate lead under 100, thus giving her the perception of an "overall" delegate lead. Currently, my latest pledged delegate count is Obama 896, Clinton 878, with 18 delegates still outstanding form Super Tuesday. In order to take a pledged delegate lead of 100 or more, Obama needs 230 of the 378 pledged delegates floating around between now and Tuesday. Unless he scores a 2-1 blowout in Washington, I doubt he will win quite that many. Still, when Obama's delegate total, even with super delegates included, becomes higher than Clinton's after February 19th, I wonder if news outlets will start to pay attention to the super delegate issue.
Obama appears headed to a clear victory in South Carolina. With a new poll from Zogby, here is the seven-poll average:
Obama: 43.1%
Clinton: 31.0%
Edwards: 13.9%
Obama has camped out in South Carolina since Sunday, while Clinton only appeared in the state on the day of the debate. At this point, if anything, I expect Obama's lead to increase. One wonders what size of victory, if any, can allow him to close the gap in California (where he trails by 12%) and nationally (where he trails by about 8%). I suppose that depends on how much he wins by, how much that victory in covered in the press on Sunday and Monday, and about the tone of the coverage. An 8% deficit is not enormous, and even a 4% bump could carry him to victory in as many as ten states on Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota). So, while Obama doesn't need much from South Carolina to stay in the game after Super Tuesday, he does need something of a boost.
In the key Republican Florida primary, with new polls from Strategic Vision and Public Policy Polling, here is the five-poll, entirely post-South Carolina average:
Romney: 23.2%
McCain: 22.6%
Giuliani: 19.8%
Since Huckabee is further behind, and pulling out of the state, it doesn't seem like he will be a factor here anymore. Also, while I think it is good that Romney has a slight lead on McCain in Florida, according to Survey USA, McCain has a 12% lead in early voting. That means Romney needs to win by more than this narrow amount in order to take the state. All three candidates are camped out in Florida form now until January 29th, but Romney appears to have both the momentum and the money here. Whether or not he can overcome McCain's early voting advantage remains to be seen.
Early voting will also be a factor in California, where Romney needs to do well in order to stay ahead of McCain, or at least close to him, on February 5th. The Field poll is the most recent, and almost always most accurate, poll from California, and it shows McCain narrowly ahead of Romney, 22%--18%. Florida and California are both must wins for Romney, especially now that it seems he did not perform very well in the Louisiana caucuses, where uncommitted won and Ron Paul finished second. While McCain didn't do well, it does seem he did better than Romney, which means that Romney might not the stranglehold on caucuses and conventions I thought he did. As TPM notes, the Republican base might not actually hate McCain, even if elite conservative movement-arians do. As such, he remains the Republican frontrunner, even if Romney leads in Florida, delegates, and money.
The first stage of the convoluted delegate selection process to the Republican national convention will take place tonight. While I don't expect it will receive much coverage--there are only about 30 stories discussing the caucuses on Google News right now, and 13 of them focus on Ron Paul's trip to the state--the results will provide significant insight into the state of the Republican nomination campaign none the less. With only eleven precincts across the entire state, turnout will be extremely low and limited to die-hard activists. With John McCain and Mitt Romney making the strongest pushes here, it will help to determine if John McCain's recent victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina has allowed him to turn a corner with the party faithful or not:
By most indications, the most organized pushes for delegates came from U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
For his part, McCain held a meet-and-greet function at the Camelot Club in Baton Rouge in late December, where handlers were able to get a bit of in-person delegate work done. With members of the national press hunkered down in a waiting area, McCain met privately for a brief period with several donors and members of the transition team of Gov. Bobby Jindal, a fellow Republican.
Romney has taken a more modern approach to herding delegates. His campaign oversaw a mass e-mail drive earlier this month that reached out to conservative voters and asked them to run as delegates for the Louisiana Republican Convention. In a response sent from the originating e-mail address, Alan Philip, Romney's regional political director, wrote that the names targeted for the drive were gleaned from lists compiled by old GOP campaigns in Louisiana. In particular, he cited the recent and failed attempt by term-limited state Sen. Craig Romero, R-New Iberia, to capture the 3rd Congressional District.
Tonight, 105 delegates to the February 16th state convention will be chosen. On February 16th, those 105 delegates will be trimmed down to 44 of the state's 47 national delegates (three delegates, representing the senior GOP leadership in the state, have already been chosen). Unless a candidate receives over 50% of the vote in the February 9th Louisiana primary, all of these delegates will be officially unpledged, and not obligated to support any candidate on the first ballot of the national convention. However, since the delegates signed up to support a candidate in today's caucuses, we will know the candidates which each of the delegates favor.
Now, with little media, and with the delegates almost certain to be officially "uncommitted," it may not seem like anything is at stake here. However, as I discussed yesterday, McCain has struggled in low-turnout party caucuses and conventions like these, while Romney has thrived. If McCain is able to win the most delegates to the state convention, it will be a strong sign that he can indeed perform well in caucus and convention states, thus greatly improving his chances to become the nominee. However, if Romney wins, especially if he wins by the wide margins of his Wyoming and Nevada victories, it will be a confirming sign that McCain will struggle mightily in caucuses and conventions around the country, and that Romney is indeed the choice of the party faithful (remember that Bush Sr. introduced Romney when he made his big speech on Mormonism). With numerous caucus and convention states between now and February 9th--Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Washington, West Virginia--Romney can potentially use them as a rich delegate farm, combined with a Florida to California strategy, to emerge as the delegate leader after February 9th. From that point, he would be positioned to take the nomination on March 4th with a double win in Ohio and Texas.
So, even without media, and even without official delegate selection, tonight's result will reveal quite a bit about the state of the Republican nomination campaign. Don't expect Huckabee to play well here, since he is not nearly as well liked by the party faithful as Romney, and since Louisiana is mainly a Catholic state rather than an evangelical one. However, Paul's dedicated activists should once again do better than expected, just as they did in Iowa and Nevada. If the results from Nevada are replicated here, a crushing Romney victory combined with Paul edging out McCain for second, that will be the best possible sign that the Republican nomination fight will go on for a long, long time.
Think McCain is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination? Not so fast. For starters, the first post-South Carolina poll of Florida actually shows Romney in the lead, not McCain. Further, I've been looking over the Republican nomination calendar between now and February 5th, and it seems to me that there are quite a few potential roadblocks for McCain.
Caucuses: Low-turnout caucuses and conventions have so far been a disaster for McCain. He was crushed, and finished third or lower, in Iowa, Nevada and Wyoming. McCain's favorables among Republicans and party insiders are lower than the rest of the field. He has lost Republicans in every state, and has also lost those who are either enthusiastic or satisfied with the Bush administration in every state. However, Republican party faithful that are either enthusiastic or satisfied with the Bush administration are in abundance in caucus states, meaning that it is possible McCain's terrible caucus performance will continue unabated.
On February 5th, there are Republican caucuses or conventions in Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, worth a total of 205 delegates (about 19% of what is needed to win). Before February 5th, there are two more Republican caucuses: Louisiana (21 / 47 delegates) on January 22nd, and Maine (21 delegates) on February 1st. If McCain does not win either of these pre-February 5th caucuses, it is reasonable to surmise that he won't win a single caucus state anywhere. This is particularly true in Maine, since both Susan Collins and Olympia Snow endorsed him. If he wins Louisiana, then McCain will clearly have avoided this roadblock. If he wins only Maine, it appears he has partially, but not entirely, avoided this roadblock
Home states: Certainly, McCain will win Arizona, and take all 53 delegates there. However, Huckabee will win Arkansas (34 delegates), Romney will win Massachusetts and Utah (79 delegates), Giuliani still leads New York (101 delegates), and Fred Thompson still leads Tennessee (55 delegates). McCain can seize New York if Giuliani drops out or loses Florida, but we have to wait another eight days to find out that results. McCain If Giuliani wins Florida, he will hang on to win New York. If Thompson drops out of the campaign, then Huckabee might be able to fill the void in Tennessee. Overall, this adds up to 53 delegates McCain will win, 103 delegates McCain will definitely be denied, and another 156 delegates that are far from assured for McCain.
Huckabee and The South: According to January polls, outside of Arkansas Huckabee still leads in three southern states worth 161 delegates: Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. While McCain won South Carolina, and while he is currently ahead of Huckabee in Florida, during the run-up to February 5th Huckabee could very well have all of these states to himself. Since Huckabee is not very competitive in most other February 5th states, with the possible exceptions of Montana and Missouri, he probably will focus his efforts in these states while McCain is targeting places like California and Illinois.
Giuliani and Romney: If Giuliani wins Florida, he will not only take New York, but he will also take New Jersey (52 delegates) and probably Delaware (18 delegates). So, McCain must still get past Florida in order to win New York, New Jersey, and Delaware. Further, Romney has tons of cash, and as such might be able to sneak out a few districts in California, cutting into the 173 delegates that McCain potentially has from that state.
Overall, between now and Super Tuesday, McCain still faces real challenges, or even certain defeat, in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, parts of California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which combined account for at least 849 delegates, and possible over 1,000 delegates. Further, he is already behind Romney in total delegates. All together, these obstacles greatly outweigh his advantages in Arizona, Connecticut, California, Illinois and Missouri, which at most combine for 384 delegates.
How much of a challenge he faces will actually be known before Super Tuesday. Louisiana and Maine will provide insight into the caucus situation for McCain, Florida is huge both for Giuliani in the northeast and Huckabee in the south, and whether Thompson stays on to take Tennessee remains unknown. If McCain sweeps the three remaining pre-Super Tuesday states, or wins both Florida and Maine, get ready for McCain to be the nominee. If he is shut out in all three, get ready for a long-drawn out Republican nomination process that no longer favors McCain and could end at the convention. If something else happens, get ready for a messy contest that could go on for a while, but still favors McCain.
So, McCain is favored, but the contest still needs some shaking out before he is declared the presumptive nominee. Louisiana (tomorrow), Florida January 29th) and Maine (February 1st) will tell us quite a bit about the state of the Republican nomination. Later on, I'll try to put forward some thoughts on how this calendar combines with the anti-McCain ideas people put forward last night.
I have not stated much on the Vitter mess, because it is hypocrisy at its highest. But when Govenor Blanco of Louisiana "weighed in" about she hope his indiscretions will not "hurt" Louisiana getting its federal assistance, I was like "why is she putting a dog in this fight?" Especially, her.
