“As Maine goes, so goes the nation.” Let us hope the original bellwether state is no longer an accurate indicator of where American politics are heading, or we’re all in serious trouble. Yesterday the Maine Republican Party officially—and overwhelmingly—scrapped their near century-old platform in favor of a Tea Party wish-list that Maine Politics calls “a mix of right-wing fringe policies, libertarian buzzwords and outright conspiracy theories.” (The full platform is available at the Washington Post site here.)
It's tempting to look at the recent gay marriage defeats in Maine and California, and say at least we're on the "right side of history." The opposition is running on borrowed time, as young people increasingly support marriage equality. But the trend is not moving fast enough, and it's clear that gay marriage supporters have been losing the "swing vote" in every election. Same-sex couples have largely won the battle for civil unions, but there's something about "marriage" that makes moderates uneasy - and it's time that we speak directly to their concerns. Third Way, a Washington DC based think tank, conducted a poll of 600 Maine voters right after Question One passed in November - which holds important conclusions we should build upon. As we look at repealing Prop 8 in California, going straight to those voters so we can win and finally move on to other battles is key. None of us want to wait until the old generation dies out, and nor should we have to.
Well, we have some good news and some bad news to report in Maine today. First, let's start off with some good news. Maine Public Broadcasting just got the hot new Pan-Atlantic poll numbers.
Pan Atlantic's Patrick Murphy says the survey of 400 likely voters found 53 percent opposing Question 1, which would repeal Maine's gay marriage law, while 42 percent favor the measure and six percent remain undecided. [Empahasis mine.] The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Murphy says Question 1 is getting a different reaction in Maine's two congressional districts, with voters in the 1st District favoring the measure by a 20 point spread, while voters in the 2nd District remain nearly equally divided. He says among the state's Catholic voters, the measure has a narrow margin of support, 49 to 46 percent.
Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.
With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.
PPP says it can't get any closer. It was an automated (robodial) poll, so I guess it's to be expected that their numbers would be different from the live callpolls' results. We can argue over whose method produces more accurate results, but ultimately all the polls point to a close race. No matter what, we have our work cut out for us.
Yesterday, the Maine Attorney General herself smacked down the argument that changing Maine law will force children to learn about marriage equality in public schools. This follows up on the Maine Department of Education stating the same thing.
Maine Attorney General Janet Mills says Maine's new gay marriage law is not related to the state's public school curricula. Mills examined language in LD 1020 at the request of Maine Education Commissioner Susan Gendron, who said parents were questioning public school superintendents about how the law might affect what's taught in public schools. [...] Mills says local school boards in Maine have the final say on what material is allowed to be used in local schools, and the law won't change that.
"I have scoured Maine laws relating to the education of its children for any references to marriage in the public school curricula. I have found none," Mills says today in a letter to Gendron.
Despite this, we just got this new Yes on 1 ad sent to us here in Portland.
Incredibly, their ads keep getting worse and worse (this actress looks like she learned to act by watching J-Lo in Gigli) with too many words, too much to listen to. So, we lucked out on that part.
But as Bill in Portland Maine wrote this morning (rec on DailyKos if you have a sec), the AG's statement will appear above the fold in newspaper's across the state. Maybe they forgot to pull their ads. But if Yes On 1 wants to burn their money on bad ads that contradict legal opinions, that's okay by us.
Update: Just to pile on the point that this is being debunked, 61% of Maine likely voters in the Pan Atlantic poll released this past Tuesday said they didn't believe the "school indoctrination" line that Yes On 1 is pushing.
(I just arrived in Maine, will have more on this tomorrow. In an off-year election when youth turnout is difficult, Andrew's right that this thing isn't done yet - promoted by Adam Bink)
According to new poll data, 51.8 percent of people who plan to vote in November say they will vote no or are leaning in that direction on question 1, the people's veto of Maine's same-sex marriage law.
The poll shows that 42.9 percent plan to vote yes, or are leaning that way. And 5.2 percent remain undecided.A "no" vote would allow the same-sex marriage law to stand. A "yes" vote would overturn the law.
The poll was from Portland-based Pan Atlantic SMS Group, which released its fall Omnibus Poll today. [..] According to Pan Atlantic, the survey is of 401 Mainers who identified themselves as "likely" voters in the Nov. 3 election. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
So either we have quite a tiny lead or we're starting to see a larger lead. But most likely, No on 1 is leading by just under 9%. Folks, that's still too close for comfort.
(I am a blogger fellow with Brave New Films on their Sick For Profit campaign. Our new video on WellPoint is at SickForProfit.com.)
News outlets are starting to report on Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, a subsidiary of WellPoint, suing the state of Maine to guarantee a 3% profit for themselves. Here's a report from the Maine Public Broadcasting Network:
The state and Maine's largest private insurer Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield are locked in a legal battle over how much profit Anthem should be able to make. Earlier this year, Maine's insurance superintendent Mila Kofman denied Anthem's request to raise rates for its individual insurance products, calling it "excessive," and instead approved an increase that leaves Anthem without a profit margin for providing those 12,000 policies. Now Anthem has filed suit to get the decision overturned.
"Superintendent has noted that Anthem's done pretty well." Janet Mills is the Maine Attorney General who is representing the superintendent of insurance. Mills' office counters that Anthem averaged a 3.2 percent profit margin in its individual line of products for the nine years that the company has been in Maine. And that going a year without a profit from those products will not drain the company.
"She found that in fact that had contributed to $17.5 million and that its executives were pocketing rather large salaries and bonuses." Anthem spokesman Chris Dugan did not comment on the lawsuit beyond acknowledging that it had been filed. In a brief filed with the Maine Superior Court, however, Anthem calls a 0 percent profit margin unfair and unprecedented; it says it wants to have a profit margin of at least 3 percent.
The new rates offered by the Maine Superintendent do not prevent Anthem from making a profit; they can do that the same way other companies might do so in a recession, by cutting overhead costs and lowering executive salaries and taking up more efficient management of their business. But as I've reported and as Igor Volsky confirms, Anthem wants the state of Maine to guarantee a 3% profit as a Constitutional right.
Prop H8 had passed in California. And even though I didn't have any immediate marriage plans, I nonetheless felt like all my future hopes and dreams were ripped away from me. I didn't know what to do... Until I got activein workingto undo the damage.
Yet even though I'm seeing progress in my new home state, I still have raw feelings about what happened in California last fall. I still have wounds that are only starting to heal.
Hi, folks. Meet Nancy Randolph from Maine -- a very nice lady I've talked to a lot in the last week as we prepared a new TV ad released today.
Before her first husband died of cancer, they thought they had great health insurance...until their insurance company denied him needed care. That drove them into bankruptcy.
Now, the senator who Nancy voted for -- Republican Olympia Snowe -- opposes the public health insurance option. And Nancy has something to say about that.
Our goal is to flood Maine and DC with $100,000 worth of these ads -- to really ramp up the pressure on Snowe. In just a few hours, we're $32,000$34,000$36,000 $45,000 of the way there -- but we do need your help.
As you know, this a critical time to put pressure on Snowe.
All week, the powerful Senate Finance Committee will take important health care votes -- including on whether to include a public option. Snowe will be a key vote on the Finance Committee.
Markos' recent poll shows Maine voters favor a public option 2 to 1. Among independent voters, it's 3 to 1. Yet Snowe urged President Obama to take the public option off the table "because it's universally opposed by all Republicans in the Senate."
"Yes on 1" - the Maine campaign to repeal marriage equality - aired its first San Francisco produced ad this week, which was kind of a dud. It was like the first "Yes on 8" ad in California - minus the Gavin Newsom footage. Within 24 hours, the "No on 1" campaign aired a strong rebuttal - in contrast to the 12 days it took "No on 8" to respond. Rather than simply deny the "gay marriage in public schools" charge, the ad accused outsiders of harming kids - and that schools protect "all Maine families," allowing our side to stay on the offensive. With 53 days to go before the election, a new poll today shows Question 1 narrowly ahead by 48-46. Supporters of marriage equality should realize that every effort will make a difference - and that we now have an opportunity to finally defeat anti-gay bigotry at the ballot box.
Despite the recent attacks on LGBT Mainers, No on 1 is still within a striking distance of victory. However, it will obviously take a lot of work to overcome this deficit and finish out on top. The Yes on 1 anti-equality campaign is already starting the "scare campaign", and we need to be ready to fight back and win.
If this doesn't inspire you, I don't know what will.
Yes, I know this is Maine. But remember, this can happen anywhere. It happened here in Nevada. It happened in California. It happened in Oregon. It happened in Arizona. It's happened in states all over the place, but now we have a chance to turn the tide in Maine.
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