Back on Friday evening, I argued, in a fashion that would have made Michel Foucault proud, that there is no objective, "true," delegate count, but instead only the power each campaign possessed to make its delegate count a reality. In other words, the truth of delegate counts and the power over the selection and credentialing of, not to mention rule making for, delegates are interchangeable concepts. As such, my new goal in delegate counting is not to determine the "true" delegate count, but instead to accurately determine the delegate count being argued for, and kept by, both the Obama and Clinton campaigns. From that point, we will see who has enough power over the process in order to make their delegate count a reality.
Our first indication of where the power resides will come in about five weeks, since that is when the rules and bylaws committee meets to discuss Florida and Michigan. For now, here are the dueling delegate counts from each campaign, as best as I can determine them:
Obama Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,494 |
1,333 |
18 |
408 |
1,627 |
| Super |
236 |
257 |
0 |
304 |
-- |
| MI + FL |
184 |
184 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
| Total |
1,914 |
1,774 |
18 |
710 |
2,208 |
Clinton Campaign Delegate Count
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Pledged |
1,490 |
1,336 |
19 |
408 |
1,627 |
| Super |
236 |
257 |
0 |
304 |
-- |
| MI + FL |
103 |
167 |
18 |
80 |
NA |
| Total |
1,829 |
1,760 |
37 |
790 |
2,208 |
And here are my projections for future delegate acquisitions:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
| Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Remaining |
50% + 1 |
| Obama Count |
2,155 |
2,013 |
18 |
230 |
2,208 |
| Clinton Count |
2,070 |
1,999 |
37 |
310 |
2,208 |
The disparity in the "remaining" column in the two counts comes from the argument over Florida and Michigan. The Clinton campaign count currently leaves 45 Michigan pledged delegates (all PLEO and at-large), 21 Michigan superdelegates, and 14 Florida superdelegates in the undetermined column. The 45 Michigan pledged delegates will be determined at the state party convention on May 17th, and will allow Clinton to gain some ground in her count. The rest of the "remaining" column in both counts are non-add-on superdelegates from outside Florida and Michigan.
Since it is one of the few times I have been able to apply Michel Foucault to something outside of academia, I am enjoying this new post-modern delegate counting that eschews a belief in an objective delegate reality. Even so, I do actually have a personal preference on how Michigan and Florida should be decided. If I were in charge, I would seat Florida's pledged delegates as is, and seat the pledged delegates from Michigan Clinton 73-55 Obama. From that point, I would strip both states of their superdelegates. This way, the voters of the two states are not punished, but the superdelegates who are responsible putting both states in this mess are. I actually think that this should become the standard punishment for states that flout the primary calendar: keep the pledged delegates, but strip the superdelegates with no possibility of reinstatement. I also really like the idea of superdelegates whining that they should be seated at the convention. That would be an hilarious press conference.
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