We're a week into the Egyptian uprising now, and it's time to reassess what has taken place so far and what might come next.
We know a few things, and we don't know a lot-and from what we can tell, the folks on the ground are also not sure what might happen. That said, we do know enough to begin to figure out the right questions to be asking.
As was true Friday, things are moving fast, so let's jump right in.
It has been a couple of years since we first started writing about Egypt; at that time we did a series of stories that described how the country's Constitution is designed to ensure that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) remains the ruling party, how corruption and torture and rape are part of the justice system, how there's a looming Presidential succession crisis, and how we better pay attention, because one day all of this was going to blow up into a national emergency, with the potential for disastrous consequences that ripple all the way from Turkey to Morocco to Pakistan.
And now...that day has arrived.
After protests that led to a change of government (sort of) in Tunisia, rioting is spreading across Egypt, quickly, the ISI (Egypt's internal security police) is out grabbing citizens and doing what they do (we'll talk more about that later), and the question of Presidential succession, which many people thought was headed in one direction, may now be headed off to a place that outside observers might not have previously considered.
Lucky for you, I have some reach inside Egypt, and we're going to get a peek inside the story that you might not have seen otherwise.
Professor Marc Gopin is the Director at the Center for World Religions, Diplomacy, and Conflict Resolution (CRDC) with the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University. You can follow his work by visiting www.MarcGopin.com. He has focused a lot of his work around interfaith conflict resolution, which is why we asked to speak with him about the controversy over the proposed construction of the Cordoba Mosque in lower Manhattan. Right after we scheduled the interview, news broke that peace talks among Israel, Palestine, and the United States would resume in September. This is an issue that Professor Gopin has been deeply involved with for a very long time now, so we included that in our line of questioning.
Highlight clips with partial transcripts and the full 40-minute interview below the fold...
On the eighth anniversary of 9/11, a professor of mine made a comment that caused a lot of soul-searching for me. He remarked, quite casually, that the United States is in decline.
Those words angered me. Nobody likes to hear their country characterized in that manner. But ever since then I've been considering that casual statement.
I think it accurately describes the state of our nation.
We are a nation in decline.
We are in decline for a variety of reasons, some more controllable and some less so. Economic weakness has something to do with it, as does the popularity of anti-Americanism (thank you, George Bush). Misadventures in the Middle East and the rise of China also play a participating role.
But enough about why we are in decline. What can be done to stop it?
On October the 28th, 2009, Jon had the good sense to invite two guests who favor (get this) a peaceful, non-violent, diplomatic approach to the middle east problem. No harm in a little civil discussion, huh?
This humble diary is simply to suggest that the United States use it's muscle to force the countries of the Middle East with which it has close relations, to air 1 hour per week of their 'enemy's' TV programs, simultaneously across all major TV stations, during prime time. The programs need to be politically and socially significant. The end goal is to engender empathy for 'the other' as human beings, without which there's no long-term basis for confidence in treaties for peaceful-coexistence, no matter elaborate and positive they may seem to be.
(Despite recent disappointments--to put it mildly--I still think that Israel is one issue on which Obama might actually deliver on some of his foreign policy promise. But more importantly, we should not be giving up. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
Friends, I just wanted to give you a heads up that over at Avaaz.org we have decided to run this Ad ahead of the Obama-Netanyahu face-off on Monday.
The Ad -- titled "Leadership" will run during the Sunday talk shows in the DC market. We have been inspired to take this step by a stunning poll of Israeli-Jews suggesting that 65% want President Obama actively involved in helping solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Ad draws attention to the controversial statement made by new, right-wing Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman that Obama will do as he's told. This comment runs counter to the sentiment expressed in our poll of Lieberman's fellow Israelis, carried out by major Israeli polling institute Hagal Hahadash, which shows that a majority of respondents believe Obama could help bring about a two-state agreement (53% said he could help a lot or somewhat to achieve this, and only 19.2% answered not at all).
(cross posted at montanamaven.com) In an article entitled "The Wrong Man for the Job", the former Iraq weapons inspector in Iraq, Scott Ritter, lays out his reasons for why Richard Holbrooke is a bad choice for U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
http://www.truthdig.com/report...
"There will be no peace without a negotiated settlement that includes the Taliban. To accomplish this, leadership is required which recognizes the Taliban as a force of moderation, and not extremism. Holbrooke does not have a record which indicates he would be willing to consider direct negotiations with the Taliban. He tends to seek military solutions to difficult ethnic-based problems, and he is likely to argue for the deployment of even more U.S. troops to that war-ravaged nation. That would be a historic mistake."
Joe the Biden famously warned us that the new President will be tested by a foreign policy challenge--and most of us assumed that challenge would come from somewhere like Pakistan, Afghanistan...or Russia.
New developments in the Middle East are suggesting that the challenge might come from an entirely different direction.
It's quite a story we've been telling--and today's installment involves massive electoral manipulation, intimidation, imprisonment... and a recanting witness who dies in his jail cell.
Hop on board the international train, Gentle Reader, and we'll see what we can learn about a country that is hardly an enemy...that is, in fact, such an ally that they have been willing to torture for us.
It is been but a few hours since Sarah Palin took the stage to have a conversation with Joe Biden, and of course the Nation has a ton of questions.
What will happen now?
How will we view all this in a few days?
How will it affect McCain and Obama?
I don't know...and I'm not even going to try to figure it out right this minute.
Instead, we're going to take a trip halfway across the world to a country that has been essential to understanding the Middle Eastern story, has been at the center of international conflicts time and time again...and has lessons to teach us that, if we learn them well, could make us a much smarter "Foreign Policy Nation" than we are today.
The country? Egypt.
So grab your virtual passport...and after we arrive, there are a few people I want you to meet.
(In McCain's defense, he didn't say the only reason we were in Iraq was oil. Still, it is clearly a reason, according to his own words. - promoted by Chris Bowers)
(edited title and removed "just", thx chris - jc)
McCain admits we are in the Middle East for Oil.
Watch the video:
My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will - that will then prevent us - that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.
So, in other words: Once we are energy independent, those crazy bastards over there in the Middle East can just kill each other and we can ignore it and go on not giving two shits just like Darfur and Rowanda.
I can't wait to see Howard Dean beat McCain over the head with this one.
After seeing Wes Clark speak twice in NYC yesterday, once on his own at a book signing, and later with Hillary Clinton at a fund raiser for her, it is becoming clearer to me how Clark's concern over stopping a war with Iran factors into his decision to endorse Hillary Clinton for President.
At the book signing Clark was asked, as a last question with time running out, if he thought the U.S. would bomb Iran, and he said "Yes". Clark focused his answer on what appeared to be most likely and why, he wasn't giving his personal views, though Clark repeated that he thought that bombing Iran was a "bad option." Clark pointed out that not only is it the stated policy of the Bush Administration that Iran must not be allowed to acquire weapons grade uranium, but he indicated that he personally talked to all of the current Democratic candidates about their views on this contengency, and they all essentially agreed with that bottom line (though it was not something that they embraced a chance to proclaim).
Trying to make sense of tribal politics in the Middle East can't be done with simple bumper sticker slogans. The history, entangling relationships, religious dimension, shifting alliances, geography and multiple cultures are a Byzantine maze of complexity. Specifically, the Muslim world is often regarded by people in the west, especially Americans, as a large bowl of alphabet soup. As a result, policy makers who look for quick and easy fixes by force in the region overreach and miscalculate.
One tragic example of miscalculation and overreach is Lebanon. Once regarded as the "jewel" of the Middle East, Lebanon endured a brutal civil from 1975 to 1990. Surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea, Syria and Israel, this small country the size of Connecticut has flummoxed leaders in Jerusalem and Washington for two decades.
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