Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 231 votes according to the Star Tribune which is 16 more than he started with prior to the recounting. Of course the "real" margin has been almost entirely obscured by the more than 3,600 challenges lodged by the two campaigns. Nevertheless, I am not optimistic because county-by-county results show a clear pattern: the candidate who challenges the most ballots in a county is the candidate who has gained votes in the county. Here are some examples:
County
Who Gained & How Much?
Who Challenged More Ballots?
Aitkin
Coleman by 3
Coleman by 2
Anoka
Franken by 23
Franken by 30
Becker
Coleman by 39
Coleman by 37
Brown
Franken by 4
Franken by 3
Carlton
Coleman by 23
Coleman by 27
Carver
Franken by 8
Franken by 11
Dakota
Franken by 13
Franken by 10
Hennepin
Coleman by 27
Coleman by 34
Meeker
Franken by 43
Franken by 44
Stearns
Franken by 19
Franken by 15
Washington
Coleman by 12
Coleman by 8
There are exceptions to this pattern, mostly counties with a small number of challenges and very small gains or losses. Two other exceptions are Ramsey County where Franken has one more challenge but has gained 34 votes and St. Louis County where Coleman has issued a 100 more challenges but has gained only 57 votes. And Coleman has issued 80 more challenges overall compared to Franken but with 82% of the recount completed that difference alone won't net Franken enough votes.
Nate Silver's models still show Franken pulling ahead, possibly by 100 votes or more. The idea is that Coleman's challenges are negating clear Franken votes while Franken's challenges are more often to ballots ruled void (double votes, scribbles, etc.). But based on the county-by-county patterns it seems optimistic to me. Tell me I'm wrong, please.
It appears to have been a good day for Senator Norm Coleman and probably was with a lead of 180 (up from 120). We won't know for sure though until mid-December when challenged ballots are examined.
And note especially the divergence of the red and blue lines as the Coleman campaign really upped their challenge quotient today and have now challenged 1,005 ballots to 977 by the Al Franken campaign.
Nate makes the case for how it is possible that Coleman is challenging clear Franken votes while Franken is challenging votes that were ruled for neither candidate. Under such a scenario, and I've heard contrary evidence, Franken would be the big vote gainer when those ballots are examined.
This is interesting: of the 66 counties that have recounted votes, only 12 of them have a candidate gaining votes without also using the same or more challenges than the opponent. The correlation between challenge difference and gained or lost votes is a very strong .64. What this means is that, in most cases, a candidate who has gained votes in a county has also issued more challenges; their gain could be due to (temporarily) cancelling out votes for the opponent.
Senator Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken shrunk again today but not by very much. The latest figures show a deficit of 120 for Franken with 64 percent of votes recounted. At this rate when all the votes have been recounted Franken will still trail and the outcome will depend on hundreds of ballots challenged by each campaign as well as a court fight over some rejected absentee ballots.
The odd thing today is that Franken lost a lot of votes in big Democratic-leaning counties where he had been doing well. The most likely explanation: a conspiracy of the Lizard People.
Here's an update of the chart I used last night:
Part of the Minnesota Vote
Original Votes
% Recounted
Franken Gain/Loss
Still to Come?
Big pro-Franken counties
905000
58% in
+23
+17 ?
Big pro-Coleman counties
724000
61% in
+33
+21 ?
Small counties (Coleman)
793000
73% in
+39
+15 ?
Those are some big changes from last night's version. Details ahead.
Norm Coleman's lead over Al Franken is down to 136 votes from the original pre-recount deficit of 215. To get an idea of where this is going let's break Minnesota down into three roughly equal parts:
Part of the Minnesota Vote
Original Votes
% Recounted
Franken Margin
Still to Come?
Big pro-Franken counties
905000
38% in
+72
+118?
Big pro-Coleman counties
724000
46% in
+18
+21?
Small counties (Coleman)
793000
55% in
-11
-9?
The Big pro-Franken counties are Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis and he has netted 72 votes there so far. If he continues at the same pace he can pick up another 118 in the days ahead.
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