Open Left - Missouri

Voting Rights Groups Sue States for Failing to Register Low-Income Residents

project vote — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

By Erin Ferns

Enfranchising America's least represented citizens is as simple as following the law: that's the message Project Vote and a coalition of voting rights groups sent today as they filed lawsuits against Indiana and New Mexico for failing to comply with the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).
Under a key provision of the NVRA, most states are required to provide voter registration opportunities to the millions of low-income Americans who apply for or use public assistance programs such as Food Stamps, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or Medicaid. Project Vote estimates that full implementation of this law could improve lagging voter registration rates among low-income citizens by two to three million new voters per year nationwide.

Unfortunately, compliance with the NVRA since its inception in 1993 has been spotty at best, non-existent at worst, leaving third-party groups with the hefty responsibility of picking up the slack by conducting expensive registration drives in disenfranchised communities. The groups believe it is time for government to be doing its job of registering its citizens, and to start by properly implementing and enforcing the NVRA.

The latest offenders under this federal law include the states of New Mexico and Indiana, both of which are being sued for denying hundreds of thousands of residents the opportunity to register to vote. Representing the plaintiffs are Project Vote, Demos, the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the NAACP, the ACLU of Indiana, and law firms, Barnhill & Galland and Schwartz, Lichten, & Bright, Freedman Boyd Hollander Goldberg & Ives, and DLA Piper U.S.

Last week, the Election Assistance Commission confirmed that poor implementation of public agency registration is a "widespread problem," according to today's press releases. Between 1995 and 1996 - the first two years the law was in effect - 2.6 million voter registration applications were collected from people who visited offices for Food Stamps, TANF, and Medicaid. That number dramatically declined in 2007-2008, when fewer than one million applications were collected nationwide, according to the EAC report.

The decline was even more severe in New Mexico, where public assistance agencies-despite steady participation rates-showed a 90 percent decrease in voter registration applications from since 1995.

"In 2007 the average number of adult participants in the Food Stamp program alone was over 103,000, but [the Human Services Department] averaged only 134 registration applications per month," according to the press release. "Project Vote investigations of six HSD offices in January 2009 revealed that none of the offices provided voter registration application forms to their clients as part of the benefits application." Additionally, the complaint alleges that New Mexico has also been neglecting the better known "motor voter" provisions of the NVRA, which require motor vehicle offices to offer voter registration services. Officials from the HSD are among the defendants named in the suit, which also includes New Mexico's Secretary of State, Mary Herrera, officials from the New Mexico Motor Vehicle Division, and the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department.

"The NVRA was enacted to ensure that states affirmatively provide all citizens an equal opportunity to register to vote," says Nicole Kovite, director of the Public Agency Voter Registration Project at Project Vote. "By ignoring this vital law, New Mexico is denying this right to thousands of its residents every year."

In Indiana - which has one of the country's worst records for voter registration, particularly among low-income people-evidence of violations of the NVRA were also cited in the coalition's lawsuit against officials from Indiana's Family and Social Services Administration, the co-directors of the Indiana Election Division, and the members of the Indiana Election Commission. Although the state currently has more 300,000 adult participants every month in the Indiana Food Stamp program alone, voter registration applications have declined from 80,000 applications collected in the 1995-1996 election cycle to a dismal 2,519 in 2007-2008.

"Voter registration should primarily be the responsibility of the government," said Jeff Ordower, ACORN's Midwest regional director. "Indiana's noncompliance has not only resulted in thousands of low-income and minority Indiana citizens being denied the opportunity to register to vote, it has also forced ACORN, the NAACP, and other groups to expend considerable effort and resources to take up the slack."

As they did in Indiana and New Mexico, the coalition has sent pre-litigation letters "notifying California, Colorado, and New Jersey that lawsuits may be necessary if they do not bring their programs into compliance," the group said. However, the group emphasizes that states do not need to wait to be sued before finally complying with federal law.

"Recently several states that had been disregarding the NVRA have been forced to comply," according to the coalition. "Last week the State of Missouri settled a similar lawsuit brought by the voting rights groups; since a court order in that suit forced Missouri public assistance agencies into compliance in July, voter registration applications skyrocketed from fewer than 8,000 a year to more than 100,000 in just eight months. In 2008, Department of Justice investigations forced both Arizona and Illinois to take steps to improve compliance."

Settlement in Missouri Lawsuit a Victory for Low-Income Voters

project vote — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

In a major victory for voting rights, low-income voters in the state of Missouri will finally have better access to voter registration opportunities, thanks to a lawsuit settlement announced today by Project Vote, Demos, and the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

For years Missouri was one of many states neglecting their obligations under the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) to offer voter registration services through agencies providing public assistance and services to persons with disabilities. After a court order in the suit required the state to comply with the NVRA in July, Missouri public assistance agencies went from collecting fewer than 8,000 applications a year to collecting over 100,000 applications in just eight months. Thursday's settlement of the case confirms Missouri's renewed commitment to continuing this remarkable success, and sends a message to other states that enfranchising its low-income citizens is as simple as following federal law.

This victory came about through the work of the Public Agency Voter Registration Project, a joint nationwide effort to assess and address areas of noncompliance. "With growing agreement on the need to improve voter registration in the United States, it is important to note that those least likely to be registered are low- to moderate-income Americans," said Nicole Kovite, director of the Project for Project Vote, in a statement released Thursday. (Forty percent of adult Americans who earn less than $25,000 are unregistered, compared to only 20 percent of citizens earning more than $100,000.) "This case illustrates how state governments can and should take the lead in reducing this disparity by fully implementing the public agency requirements of the NVRA."

In 2007 Project Vote assessed Missouri's track record of noncompliance and documented widespread violations of the NVRA. In April 2008, after unsuccessfully attempting to work with the state to resolve the issues, a lawsuit was filed against the Missouri Department of Social Services (DSS) on behalf of ACORN and St. Louis resident Dionne O'Neal. The plaintiffs were represented by lawyers from Project Vote, Demos, the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, and the law firm of Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP, as well as by local counsel Arthur Benson of Arthur Benson & Associates.

Evidence of the state's neglect of the federal law were cited in the July court ruling, including the state's own documents confirming that more than one million Food Stamps applicants could not have been offered voter registration between 2003 and 2008 because the DSS did not order enough forms required for its clients. Further, a field study conducted by Project Vote and ACORN found that half of all 21 counties surveyed did not routinely provide voter registration forms, and some flat out did not provide voter registration at all. In one particularly outstanding case, a county DSS allowed applications to pile up for an entire year without being turned in to be processed by the local election authority.

In the settlement agreement Missouri agrees to require "each DSS office to collect and report detailed monthly data on the numbers of persons visiting DSS offices, their responses to voter registration inquiries, the numbers of voter registrations completed and submitted to local election authorities, and other key information, and to provide this data monthly to plaintiffs' counsel," according to the press release today. The agreement also requires the designation of NVRA coordinators at both the state and local levels as well as the implementation of mandatory trainings of employees in voter registration duties. The DSS is also responsible for providing voter registration applications with regular mailings to clients and in connection with transactions by phone or internet.

The success in Missouri serves as a "timely reminder that governments, not third-party drives, are the most effective way to bring millions of low-income Americans into the electorate," as Jeff Ordower, Missouri ACORN Head Organizer, said in today's statement. The potential for this program nationwide is tremendous. Project Vote conservatively estimates that public assistance agencies nationwide could be collecting over 200,000 applications a month, or between two and three million per year.

Clearly, other states across the country that have ignored their responsibilities under the NVRA should take note of Missouri's example and bring their practices into compliance with this vital and effective law.

Voter Fraud Myth Used to Push Voting Policies that Harken Back to the Jim Crow Era

project vote — Sat, 09 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

By Erin Ferns

Recent studies show that a more diverse electorate turned out last November, including historically underrepresented young and minority voters. Since the election, Republican operatives have continued to use the specter of voter fraud to loosen regulations on voter suppression activities while pushing policies to make voting more difficult for the crop of new voters.
Last week we reported how the Republican National Committee (RNC) had quietly filed a motion to dissolve a consent decree prohibiting them from practicing voter caging and other voter suppression activities. The decree had been established in the 1980s after so-called "ballot security programs" to prevent voter fraud resulted in wrongful voter disenfranchisement of largely low-income and minority voters.

"The RNC claims that the lack of evidence of voter fraud is due to liberal voting laws that make fraud hard to detect," said Project Vote election counsel, Teresa James in last week's column. "Yet legislatures in the past decade have pushed through the most restrictive voting codes we've seen since the Jim Crow era. Complicated voter ID rules, barriers to voter registration, and arbitrary rules on verifying provisional or absentee ballots all disenfranchise qualified voters, especially minority voters. Despite this frenzy of allegedly anti-fraud legislation, this political party wants carte blanche to also use questionable tactics that suppress targeted voters, all in the name of mythical voter fraud."

Mythical voter fraud is currently being used in states with widely reported battles to pass strict voter identification requirements as their legislative sessions come down to the wire.

Last week, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan spoke in defense of the 230,000 eligible voters in the state who would be disenfranchised because they lack the necessary ID required under pending House Joint Resolution 9. The effort to pass a strict voter ID law continues despite a similar bill's failure to pass last year as well as a recent report by Carnahan's office that showed there were no instances of voter impersonation at the polls during the last three elections.

According to the Richmond Daily News, "the amendment would provide free government issued photo ID cards to voters" - a provision that other states with pending voter ID battles are considering. However, Carnahan's study points out that "documents needed to obtain the ID can be hard or expensive to obtain," referring to a Jefferson City man who would be "a perfect example of someone who would be denied the right to vote."

"I have my Illinois birth certificate, but I was turned away because it doesn't have a raised seal," said 25-year-old citizen, Greg Butler. "I'm trying to get a new copy from Illinois, but the process is complicated. If this passed, I'm worried that I wouldn't be able to vote in Missouri."

"It's my job to protect the rights of all Missouri voters," said Carnahan. "This proposal would make it difficult or impossible for thousands of eligible Missourians to cast a ballot. I hope our legislators will take a closer look at this list and see that there are people in communities all over the state who risk being disenfranchised by this proposal."

According to Carnahan's April 2009 report on the 2008 election, election administration problems dealing with long lines, overzealous poll workers who wrongfully asked for photo ID, and confused voters who were unaware that they needed to re-register every time they change residence in order to be eligible to vote were the real issues in the election, not polling place fraud. In fact, only one St. Louis voter illegally cast an absentee ballot for his recently deceased mother, a case that was not only caught by authorities, but would also have not been prevented under a photo ID provision since it was a mail ballot.

"This single instance showed that the security checks in place are effective at keeping Missouri elections fair and free of fraud," Carnahan reported.

A voter ID bill in Texas will likely reach the House floor if a "compromise" to allow voters to show two forms of non-photo ID is included among other provisions, over the objections of House Representatives who prefer a stricter photo ID requirement, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Earlier this year, the much publicized voter ID debate "conjured up the civil rights struggles of the 1960s" as Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Fort Worth)" said "proposals for tighter ID measures are the modern equivalent of the Jim Crow laws that were used to suppress minority turnout for decades," according to the Associated Press in April.

"This is a racial issue, make no mistake about it," said Veasey. "Can you really sleep with yourself at night knowing that if this bill is passed, that most of the people that would be denied the right to vote are going to be black, brown and poor?"

Rep. Todd Smith's so-called compromise bill attempts to "mitigate the potential for disenfranchisement," a "natural" outcome of voter ID, according to Rep. Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas), the Morning News reported. The compromise, "designed to draw support across party lines," includes provisions for increased funding for voter registration efforts in the state as well as "free identification for people who need it to vote."

Unlike Missouri and Texas where high profile battles to pass strict photo ID laws have occurred in recent years, the Rhode Island House Judiciary Committee shocked voters and advocates by supporting photo ID legislation 11-2 last week. According to the Providence Journal, "it was believed to be the first time that any Rhode Island legislative committee has approved such a requirement."

The bill, HB 5097 requires all voters to present a document that shows the voter's name and photograph. A state voter ID would be issued upon request "at locations and in accordance with procedures established by rules and regulations promulgated by the secretary of state," according to the bill's text.

A statement issued by the ACLU and a coalition of organizations deemed the bill more harmful than helpful. "Rather than putting hurdles in the way of voters, lawmakers should be working to lower barriers to voter participation," according to the Providence Journal. "Should the bill become law, it would 'lead to the disenfranchisement of thousands of voters in Rhode Island, and particularly racial minorities, the elderly, and people with disabilities.'"

To monitor voter ID and other election bills, visit www.electionlegislation.org or subscribe to the weekly Election Legislation digest, featuring election bills in all 50 states, by emailing Erin Ferns at eferns [at] projectvote.org.

Rolling Through the Heartland

Mike Lux — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 15:43:05 GMT

I just got back from my longest trip yet on my book tour promoting The Progressive Revolution: How the Best in America Came to Be. Outside of a quick trip to a Netroots Nation regional meeting in Denver, all of my book travel up until now has been to heavily Democratic cities on the east and west coasts, but this trip was right in the heart of the heartland: Missouri (a swing state leaning red), Kansas and Nebraska (2 thoroughly red states), Iowa (a swing state leaning blue), and the most thoroughly blue Midwestern state there is, Illinois.

Adam took some photos from the trip you can check out on our Flickr set here.

After this all-American, politically diverse, trip, I have certain things I can feel confident in reporting on:

• I continue to be heartened by the great response to the book's message - really good crowds, really responsive people, great questions, incredible passion about changing the country. There really is a movement building everywhere - yes, even in the red states - for big progressive change.

• The populist feelings about the banks are very strong. My biggest applause line every place I spoke was "If you are too big to fail, you are too big to exist." Even though I was speaking to strongly pro-Obama audiences, people were very troubled by his banking policies.

• In spite of the economy, people are still fired up enough to be coming to fundraisers. I was a speaker at three different fundraising events - for the Nebraska Democratic Party in Lincoln, the Iowa Citizen Action Network in Des Moines, and Citizen Action Illinois/USAction in Chicago. All of them were successes, with a combined crowd of over 400 people.

• People very much want to be involved in changing America. There was no sense at all that folks are passively waiting for President Obama to take care of things. Every single event I went to - every single one - someone asked a version of the question "What can we do to help change things?"

It was a great trip, and now I'm back in D.C. for a couple of weeks before heading out again. I look forward to continuing to spread the message about the history, and future, of the progressive cause in America.

Voter ID still a Looming Threat for 2009

project vote — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 19:32:32 GMT

Cross-Posted at Project Vote's Voting Matter's Blog

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

by Erin Ferns

After the U.S. Supreme Court upheld one of the country's strictest voter ID laws in April, several states rushed to pass similar bills before the year's end. By December, more than 25 states introduced legislation to require voter ID at the polls. Though none of these bills were successful this year, lawmakers in several states are hoping to revive such restrictive requirements in 2009.

Since July of this year, at least seven states have pre-filed or carried over voter ID legislation for the 2009-2010 sessions, including Nevada, Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.
Oklahoma Senator and author of Senate Bill 4, John Ford (R-Bartlesville) is confident the voter ID bill will pass in 2009, despite resistance from the legislature to pass a similar bill earlier this year. However, opponents maintain that such a measure would "suppress the vote among the elderly and among minorities," according to the Tulsa World earlier this month. Furthermore, "there's no documentation of any fraud anywhere in the voting system," said Sen. Jim Wilson (D-Tahlequah).

Last week, Maryland Senator Andrew P. Harris (R-Baltimore County) pre-filed S 43, a bill requiring all voters to provide government issued photo ID when voting at their polling place. Two days later, the Baltimore Examiner reported an effort to require the voters in Anne Arundel County to provide photo ID at the polls. It would be the only jurisdiction in the state to require photo ID.

"My goal is to improve voter confidence in the election system," said Republican Anne Arundel County delegate and voter ID supporter, Nic Kipke. "There is skepticism over the validity of elections."

Despite this assertion, Kipke also admits that there were no instances of voter fraud in the county or the state to inspire the legislation, according to the Examiner.

Voting rights advocates are opposed to such measures in Maryland because such requirements "suppress turnout by intimidating people [away from the polls]," said state ACLU legislative director, Cindy Boersma."They'll feel as if their vote is being tracked. You shouldn't be able to prevent people from voting if they are constitutionally eligible to vote."

In May of this year, voting rights advocates, including Project Vote, helped defeat a voter ID/Proof-of-Citizenship bill (HJR 48) in Missouri. Last week, however, the state appeared to be re-igniting this battle by pre-filing another constitutional amendment to require photo ID (HJR 9).

Other states, including Mississippi, have recently made headlines for similar legislative plans for the new year. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann is reportedly proposing to "expand the powers of the secretary of state," by way of multiple election reform measures, including voter ID. In 2008, voter ID was a top election issue in the state with the introduction and failure of several voter ID bills in both the regular and special sessions. In 2009, Elections Committee Chairman Sen. Terry Burton, R-Newton, "said he would produce [voter ID measures] and other legislative measures on a piece-by-piece basis rather than inserting all Hosemann's voter legislation in a Senate omnibus bill this year," according to the Jackson Free Press.

Currently, eight states either require or request government issued photo ID. Eighteen more states exceed Help America Vote Act requirements and request both photo and non-photo ID in order for voters to cast their ballots.

Beginning next week, states will begin convening for the 2009-2010 legislative sessions. To monitor voter ID or other election reform bills in 20 states, visit www.ElectionLegislation.org (registration required). To receive a weekly update on election legislation in 50 states and related news, please email eferns@projectvote.org.

Quick Links:
www.ElectionLegislation.org
"Voter ID Requirements." Project Vote (Web page).
"Voter ID Requirements by State." Project Vote

In Other News:

N.C. voter participation swelled in 2008 - Raleigh News & Observer [N.C.]
Democracy North Carolina says 2008 was the Year of the Voter.

Voting changes proposed: Measure would allow early voting, more absentees - Associated Press
RICHMOND (AP) - Virginia voters would find it easier to avoid long lines on Election Day if legislation submitted for the 2009 General Assembly becomes law.

Exit Poll Analysis Suggests Obama Victory Due to Surge in Youth and Minority Voting

project vote — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:43:42 GMT

The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.
Countering the conventional wisdom that the voting population on November 4 did not change as dramatically as predicted, the analysis, The Demographics of Voters in America's 2008 General Election: A Preliminary Assessment, demonstrates that African-Americans, Latinos, and young voters cast millions more ballots in 2008 than in 2004.

"The analysis estimated that about 5.8 million more minorities voted in this year's presidential election than in 2004, while nearly 1.2 million fewer whites went to the polls," wrote Greg Gordon of McClatchy Newspapers. "The figures appear to reflect the success of Project Vote and other liberal voter registration groups in registering millions of young, poor, elderly and minority Americans to vote in recent election cycles."

According to the analysis, African-Americans cast nearly three million more ballots nationwide in 2008 than in 2004-an increase of 21 percent. The total votes cast by Latinos went up by 16 percent-more than 1.5 million-and young Americans aged 18-29 cast 1.8 million more votes, a nine percent increase. That the overall totals did not increase significantly compared to 2004 was in part due to a decrease in voting by white voters.

In addition to presenting an analysis of ballots cast from the United States as a whole, the memo by Project Vote consultant and Ph.D. candidate Jody Herman and Barnard College political science professor Lorraine Minnite examines several key states in detail, including Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The Project Vote data is preliminary, and does not speak to "turnout," which is traditionally a measure of the percentage of the voting-eligible population that shows up to vote. Project Vote expects to release a full report on turnout in the 2008 election in 2009 when government survey data on the voting-eligible population comes available. Yet, this preliminary analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred this year.

"There is no doubt that this surge in voting by Americans of color and young people had a powerful impact on the outcome of the election," said Michael Slater, executive director of Project Vote, in a press release issued today.

"Separate opinion polls and election results themselves indicate that an overwhelming majority of African-Americans and Latinos backed Obama," according to Gordon.

"Thus, the appearance of an African-American presidential candidate with a sympathetic message may have prompted the nation's minorities to vote at levels approaching white voters -- if final state vote counts do not upend Project Vote's figures," wrote AlterNet's Steve Rosenfeld last week. "Its findings also suggest the U.S. electorate is not an inflexible assembly of voting constituencies, but has segments that are mobilized -- or demobilized -- depending on the year, candidate and message,"

In an email exchange with Rosenfeld, Frank Sharry, executive director of pro-immigration reform group, America's Voice, said "neither the turnout increase among Latinos -- nor the swing in support to Democrats -- were surprising."

"Telling people you don't like them and don't want them is not a winning electoral strategy," wrote Sharry. "But that is what the Republican Party has been saying to immigrants, Latino immigrants in particular, for the past four years. No surprise, then, that record numbers of Latinos turned out in 2008 and that the swing away from Republicans to Democrats among Latino immigrants in particular was dramatic."

Presidential Vote Counting Thread

Chris Bowers — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:20:51 GMT

OK, this is a thread for being really, really greedy in the--yes, still ongoing--2008 election. The big news is that McCain has dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Woo-hoo!

I had been waiting for this, but as vote totals continue to trickle in, McCain has now dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Right now, Obama stands at 52.7149%, and McCain is at 45.9857%, for a margin of 6.73%. The best part is that McCain is now below 46.00%, and could still, quite realistically, fall to 45.9% in counts that round to the nearest tenth of a percent. I'm still hoping for the overall margin can reach 7.00%, although there are now very few votes still uncounted and / or left to recount. Obama's raw vote margin is currently 8,538,623. Another neat goal would be 9,000,000, although that is even more unlikely than 7.00%.

On a less hopeful note, it is highly likely that Missouri's eleven electoral votes will go to John McCain, making the final electoral count Obama 365-173 McCain instead of Obama 376-162 McCain. McCain currently leads "The Show Me State" by 4,716 votes, with about 6,300 provisional ballots yet to be counted. As such, in order to win the state, Obama will need to secure about 87.5% of the provisional ballots. The reason the networks have not called the state, despite this deficit, is that Obama will gain some votes, and will also have the right to a recount if it so desires. However, given that asking for such a recount might appear a bit petty after he already won a solid national victory, it is unlikely that there will be a fight over Missouri's electoral votes.

A blogger like me can afford to be greedy about the 2008 election. Barack Obama, however, can't spend his political capital in that way. Oh well.

Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part Two

Chris Bowers — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.

The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry.
Senate Races

Georgia: Have you started linking to Saxby Chambliss yet? The more people who do, the higher it will appear in search engine rankings. If we can push it into the first ten results for Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, then it will result in a lot of excellent voter contacts. Everyone who encounters the site will be a voter looking for more information on Saxby Chambliss, and we can show them this great website made by an enterprising activist.

There is still only one post-election poll in Georgia, showing Saxby Chambliss up 3%. Martin is racking up $50,000 a day on Act Blue, Obama has sent staff, McCain has stumped for Chambliss, and both the NRSC and DSCC are running ads. I like the new DSCC ad:

The best part about this ad is that it makes a partisan case against gridlock, rather than a bi-partisan one. In this ad, the presence of large numbers of Republicans in the Senate is the source of gridlock, rather than vague platitudes about "working with both sides." The former is a better argument, because it actually makes sense.
Minnesota: This one is moving onto the recount stage, which will begin next week. Franken's deficit has been reduced to 200 votes in the final pre-recount audit, according to The Uptake. Also, a new study has come out, suggesting that Franken will gain votes once Minnesota ballots with undervotes on the Senate campaign are examined. Franken is also expected to gain from the regular recounting, so this one is going to be very close. Expect the fight to come down to legal inspections of individual ballots, a process that will begin on December 16th. This will, in all likelihood, be the last campaign to be decided this year. There might even be a dispute at the Senate swearing in ceremony in the first week of January!

House Races

California 04: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails Republican Tom McClintock by 691 votes. Approximately 35,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in this campaign, plus a small but undetermined number of "regular" votes in two pro-McClintock counties and one toss-up county (source). Pending the remaining 35,000 votes, neither side has declared victory, and both will attend freshman orientation next week. Brown will have to do well among the absentees in order to win this. He should, just like all Democrats, do well among the provisionals. No word on when all of the votes will be counted here.
Louisiana 04: No news here. As with last time, this is a Republican-leaning district (R+7), with dueling polls. The internal Democratic poll, with a 4.0% margin of error, shows Paul Carmouche ahead by 10%. The internal Republican poll, with a laughable margin of error of 8.3%, shows the Republican ahead by 5%. This campaign leans Democratic, but only slightly. In the Louisiana 6th race a couple weeks ago, the Republican made up a lot of ground in the final days to squeak out a win.
Ohio 15: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails Republican Steve Stivers by 149 votes. 27,000 provisional ballots, almost all in Democratic-leaning Franklin county, remain to be counted. Stivers is challenging about 1,000 of those ballots in court, with a ruling due out on Monday:
A federal judge says he'll rule Monday on whether he has jurisdiction in a case involving a still-unresolved congressional race and provisional ballots.

U.S. District Court Judge Algenon Marbley says he'll hear from both sides Monday if he decides he can hear the case.

If not, Marbley says he'll send the issue back to the Ohio Supreme Court where it was originally filed.

Kilroy currently leads by 5% in Franklin county, suggesting that she stands to gain about 1,250 votes from the provisional ballots even if the 1,000 Stivers is challenging are tossed. With her expected gains more than 1,000 votes larger than her current deficit, it seems quite likely that Mary Jo Kilroy will win this district.
Oh, and I should add than a 10% provisional ballot rate in this district is a travesty. Pathetic.

My current guess is that we win two of the three House seats, making for a total of D 259-176 R, exactly one seat under my projection. In the Senate, I don't feel like we are the favorite in either campaign, but we do have a good chance to win at least one of them. If we do, then we will have enough seats to pass The Employee Free Choice Act, providing card check law nationwide and an opportunity to transform the American workplace. We already have enough seats to pass really all of Obama's agenda.

In the national U.S. House popular vote, Democrats currently lead by 8.88%, making it the largest popular vote victory in either a national Presidential or Congressional campaign since 1984. That is a real accomplishment for Chris Van Hollen.

Oh yeah, and in the presidential campaign, Obama's popular vote lead has grown to 52.70%--46.00%. I look forward to the moment when McCain dips below 46%, although my hope for a 7.00% victory now seems highly unlikely. The only remaining state to be called, Missouri, will complete counting on Monday. McCain currently holds a 4,900 vote lead, and will probably hang on to win the state. The final electoral vote count should be Obama 365-173 McCain. Not bad!

Third Presidential Results Thread

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 06:58:08 GMT

National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12

Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Missouri	99%	49%	50%	11
NE-02	100%	49%	50%	1

Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.

Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).

Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.

Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.

Fighting for Democracy vs Fighting the Spread of Democracy

project vote — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:21:23 GMT

Scaling the Mountains and Molehills of the "Voter Registration Fraud" Controversy

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns and Michael McDunnah

With a constant barrage of allegations against ACORN and other voter registration organizations coming from the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee in recent weeks, it's worthwhile to take a look back at this ongoing war between partisan forces on the right and community based voter registration drives-a war that has largely been fought in the media and nowhere else, and which has threatened to drown out real issues in these crucial weeks before the election.
On October 6 ACORN and Project Vote held a press briefing call in which they announced the completion of their 2007-2008 voter registration drive, a massive 21 state effort that succeeded in registering over 1.3 million low-income and minority people, an apparent record for any single nonpartisan voter registration drive in history. This exceptional news, however, has been nearly lost in a tempest-in-a-teacup brewed by Republicans around a relatively small number of faulty or falsified voter registration applications handed in through the effort.

On October 2, the RNC held a press briefing call attacking the organization. Republican National Committee chief counsel Sean Cairncross called ACORN a "quasi-criminal organization" that is "engaged in systematic fraud and attempts to undermine our electoral system." The RNC, however, did not produce any evidence to support these allegations, other than a handful of problem cards that ACORN itself has identified and alerted election officials about. A small number of ACORN canvassers have been fired for falsifying cards-not in any effort to subvert the election by enabling illegal voting (which is incredibly rare and incredibly difficult), but simply in an effort to get paid for doing work they didn't feel like actually doing. ACORN has encouraged, and offered to cooperate with, investigations and prosecutions against these workers.

ACORN's encouragement and cooperation, however, has not prevented the organization from being the subject of politically motivated attacks. In Nevada, ACORN had already turned over extensive documentation of problem registrations turned in by former workers, and had been working with election officials and law enforcement for weeks when law enforcement nevertheless decided to stage a highly publicized raid of ACORN's Nevada office that occurred on October 7, the day after the announcement of the drive's success. (It was highly publicized, in part, because news crews and photographers just happened to be invited.) ACORN has called the raid a stunt, and interestingly, the very affidavit used to support the search warrant documents the extensive quality control procedures ACORN uses to guard against voter fraud, as well as ACORN's thorough cooperation with law-enforcement officials.

ACORN and Project Vote launched back in a news conference call on October 10. "This is the third election cycle in a row where we've seen partisan interests take the same issue-which is canvassers trying to defraud ACORN by not doing their work and instead fabricating applications-and trying to exaggerate that and turn it into an argument that there is 'widespread fraudulent voting' going on," said Project Vote executive director Michael Slater. "These allegations have been debunked now in several election cycles, and we'll find by the end of this election cycle they'll be debunked as well."

ACORN spokesperson Scott Levenson also made the point that the term "voter fraud" does not apply to these cases. "There haven't been any cases where anyone even suggested that someone attempted to vote under these circumstances," said Levenson. "There are no votes that are really in question here."

Another "Scare Tactic" to Prevent Voter Participation

So what's the motive behind the attacks? At the Huffington Post on October 10, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) said "the real reason is obvious: Because ACORN, along with Project Vote, just announced that they had successfully registered 1.3 million poor people this year." Calling ACORN "one of the strongest, hardest-working, most dedicated community organizations" in the United States, Jackson said "thank you, ACORN. Thank you, Project Vote, for taking our democracy seriously enough to try to include 1.3 million more poor people in a more perfect union."

On the same day election law attorney Rick Hasen at the Huffington Post said, "For the last three elections, Republicans have been ramping up cries of voter fraud as a way of undermining the legitimacy of the election results should they not turn out in their favor and providing a reason for strict voting purges that are likely to remove many Democratic voters from the rolls."

Greg Gordon of McClatchy Newspapers concurred, and helped put these most recent attacks in context. "Republicans have leveled similar allegations against the coalition known as ACORN in every election since at least 2000, but they have yet to produce proof that the group poses a threat to election integrity," Gordon wrote.

"I'm astounded that this issue is being trotted out again," former U.S. attorney David Iglesias recently told TPMmuckraker. "Based on what I saw in 2004 and 2006, it's a scare tactic." In 2007, the myth of voter fraud was exposed during the U.S. Attorneys scandal, which propelled inquiries into the firing of at least nine federal prosecutors, including Iglesias. Iglesias says he received political pressure to bring charges of voter fraud against ACORN in New Mexico despite the fact that there was no evidence of any criminal activity.

On Tuesday, October 14 the confrontation between ACORN and the McCain-Palin campaign almost literally came to a head with dueling press conferences at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. Speaking for the McCain-Palin campaign, former senators John Danforth and Warren Rudman once again raised the same old concerns about ACORN's voter registration work, without citing any new evidence. Immediately following, ACORN held a press conference across the hall, where ACORN leaders were joined by leaders from the voting rights groups Common Cause and Demos, as well as by actual voters to testify to the importance of voter registration.

"We have an opportunity this year," said Miles Rapoport of Demos. "People by the hundreds of thousands and millions are anxious and eager to register to vote and be part of it. I think the criticism of ACORN is a diversionary issue that should not be allowed to cloud what is happening this year, which is an extraordinary flowering of democracy. ACORN is to be applauded for encouraging that, not criticized, and I am proud to stand with them."

The following day, October 15, ACORN and other advocacy leaders-including leaders of the NAACP and People for the American Way (PFAW)-held another press conference in which the allegations were placed in their proper context: as a civil rights issue, and part of a long history of attempts to use accusations of voter fraud to suppress the votes of low-income and minority voters. "This latest attack on ACORN follows a sorry pattern, played out in election after election," said Julian Bond, chairman of the NAACP. "Republicans have practiced an assortment of subtle and overt methods to suppress and smother voter registration and turnout...Ever since they first practiced voter suppression, they've yelled, 'Voter fraud!' " The Leadership Conference on Civil Rights also provided a statement of support, and PFAW President Kathryn Kolbert said McCain "should be ready to disavow the organized effort his party has made to subvert the democratic process."

"Those who are stirring the 'voter fraud' pot don't want to talk about voter suppression and intimidation," said Kolbert. "They want to use the code word of 'voter fraud' as cover for their real objective of voter suppression. It's a sad day when a campaign's success strategy is dependent upon keeping voters away from the polls," she said.

Far from "disavowing" the attacks, however, McCain himself took the baseless allegations to a new level on October 15 in the final presidential debate. McCain lashed out at ACORN, attempting to tie his opponent Barack Obama to the controversy. "We need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN," said McCain, "who is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy."

Senator Obama quickly dismissed both the charges against ACORN and his own "connection" to the organization: "ACORN is a community organization...they were paying people to go out and register folks, and apparently some of the people who were out there didn't really register people, they just filled out a bunch of names." While defending ACORN, Obama also clarified his own ties to the organization, which partisans have grossly exaggerated. "The only involvement I've had with ACORN was I represented them, alongside the U.S. Justice Department, in making Illinois implement a motor voter law that helped people get registered at DMVs," said Obama.

Key State Officials Report No Problems With ACORN Voter Registration Efforts

Even election officials in key states have said that they detected no problems with ACORN's voter registration drives. According to Aaron Deslatte of the Orlando Sentinel, election officials in Florida's Seminole and Orange counties stated that they did not suspect the bad cards collected to be a scheme to defraud the election. Furthermore, "Both Gov. Charlie Crist and Secretary of State Kurt Browning have said they don't mind ACORN being active in Florida's election process. When reporters asked Crist if there was a problem with ACORN here, he said, 'No.'"

And the Miami Herald reports that "Crist's Republican Secretary of State, Kurt Browning, said he doesn't think ACORN is committing systematic voter fraud...Like ACORN spokesmen, Browning says the false voter registration forms could be blamed on unethical canvassers or on citizens who themselves fill out fictitious voter cards." About the exaggerated claims of voter fraud, Crist is quoted as saying "As we're coming into the closing days of any campaign, there are some who enjoy chaos.''

In Missouri, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Republican St. Louis elections director Scott Leiendecker says that ACORN's registration efforts have been problem-free this year. "Everything's been on the up and up," he says.

In Newsday, Cathy L. Richter Geier, the Republican commissioner of the Suffolk County Board of Elections in New York, told the reporter "We have not seen anything out of the ordinary."

In an interview with Democracy Now, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said she's "had nothing but good experiences working with" ACORN.

In Texas, according to the Houston Chronicle, the Harris county registrar reports that "there is no evidence of intentional manipulation of the voter rolls here," and a spokesperson for the Secretary of State's office said that "no problems involving ACORN have been brought to their attention."

The Press Sees Through the Partisan Attack

Putting the number of bad registration cards discovered among the 1.3 million into context, the Baltimore Sun editorializes that "any operation that big is bound to produce errors, but the irregularities cited by GOP critics are minuscule compared with the number of valid applications. ACORN hasn't been charged with violating any law, and it says it has fired workers caught trying to game the system with forged or fraudulent documents."

"Real voter fraud - the intentional corruption of the electoral process by a voter - happens at the polls, not when new voters try to register," the Sun writes. "So far, ACORN's accusers haven't come up with convincing evidence to back up their charges."

There is an important difference between this and previous election cycles, however: the GOP's strategy is not working. In previous years the press didn't catch on to the spurious nature of the attacks until long after the election, and so media coverage became an inadvertent part of a successful strategy to create an unfounded specter of voter fraud and perpetuate the myth that more extreme restrictions were necessary to prevent illegal voting. This year, fewer and fewer reputable news outlets seem to be buying what the GOP is selling.

While some histrionic stories have appeared on Fox News (which has mentioned ACORN more often in the past week than it has mentioned either of the vice-presidential candidates) and CNN-both of which have done stories that have been debunked by independent sources including the watchdog group Media Matters-other reporters and editorial boards have been vigilant in getting to the truth (and the true motive) of the allegations.

In an editorial in the Capital Times (Madison, WI) on October 10 entitled "GOP Battles the Spread of Democracy," Joel McNally says:

"Republicans have another underlying motive for attacking ACORN. It is an organization that engages in that dreaded community organizing. It actually tries to give a voice to the poor and most vulnerable among us...Clearly, organizations like ACORN are on the front lines of promoting democracy in this country while Republicans are trying to stop its spread."

And the Kansas City Star's Friday editorial says:

"Let's look at the facts. The single most important one: Voter registration fraud - where bogus names, addresses or signatures of potential voters are submitted to election authorities - is far different from actual voter fraud, where unqualified people show up and try to vote...

"So why all the caterwauling from Republicans? The most salient point is that ACORN has registered more than 1.3 million voters this election cycle. Of course many of these people are in demographic groups - minorities, and lower- and middle-income Americans - who tend to vote for Democrats. And many of these people are ready to vote for change..."

In an editorial today the New York Times calls the charges against ACORN "wildly overblown - and intended to hobble ACORN's efforts":

"..for all of the McCain campaign's manufactured fury about vote theft (and similar claims from the Republican Party over the years) there is virtually no evidence - anywhere in the country, going back many elections - of people showing up at the polls and voting when they are not entitled to...

"Meanwhile, Republicans aren't saying anything about another more serious voter-registration scandal: the fact that about one-third of eligible voters are not registered. The racial gaps are significant and particularly disturbing. According to a study by Project Vote, a voting-rights group, in 2006, 71 percent of eligible whites were registered, compared with 61 percent of blacks, 54 percent of Latinos and 49 percent of Asian-Americans...

"The real threats to the fabric of democracy are the unreasonable barriers that stand in the way of eligible voters casting ballots," the Times concludes. "That would go a long way toward explaining the GOP's frenetic attacks on ACORN."

Finally, today, as reported by Bloomberg, the Obama campaign asked U.S. attorney general Michael Mukasey to "add a probe into allegedly false Republican claims of voter fraud to the investigation into the firings of U.S. attorneys."

In the letter to Mukasey and special prosecutor Nora Dannehy, who is investigating the U.S. attorney firings, Robert Bower, general counsel for Obama for America, says: "The current surge of improper Republican activity must be understood, first and most fundamentally, in context of years of concerted partisan activities to use bogus claims of 'vote fraud' to suppress voting and to influence elections in the eleventh hour by pressuring federal and local officials-including the Justice Department-to investigate and prosecute allegations of fraud where none exists."

Quick Links:
Minnite, Lorraine. The Politics of Voter Fraud. Project Vote. March 2007.
Hess, Douglass R. "Representational Bias in the 2006 Electorate." Project Vote. Sept. 2007.

In Other News:

House speaker to push for voter ID - Associated Press
OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - House Speaker Chris Benge says he plans to push for a new law requiring Oklahoma voters to present identification when heading to the polling booth.

Judge declines to halt Georgia's voter screening - Atlanta Journal Constitution
A federal judge on Thursday allowed the state of Georgia to continue verifying the citizenship of registered voters with a statewide database.

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute - The Gainesville Sun
The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.

Are Voters Registered? Check Here to Ensure Every Vote Counts on Nov. 4

project vote — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 22:50:23 GMT

Cross posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

As history has shown, there is a difference between submitting a voter registration application and finding your name on the rolls when you go to vote. With registration coming to a close, Project Vote is conducting emergency efforts to ensure that no one who wants to vote is left out on Election Day.

Project Vote's Registration Repair Program is an intensive and urgent effort to collect and rectify large numbers of registrations that have been rejected by boards of election. We have been working all over the country to obtain disqualified applications and to contact would-be voters to repair applications with missing or erroneous information.

Check www.ProjectVote2008.org to see if your county has disqualified applications
Project Vote offers a Web site to help voters to check if they, their friends or neighbors were rejected by election authorities because of alleged or actual deficiencies in their application. Unless these people have already fixed the problem or filed another, corrected application, they will not be able to vote in November. The lists are available at www.ProjectVote2008.org. Currently featured states include Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Check back often as lists will be updated with more information in coming days.

Given that many of these counties have registration deadlines this Monday, we encourage voters to ensure they are not excluded from the voter rolls. Voters who discover they are not registered may fix the problem immediately by calling or visiting the local elections office to file a new, correct registration. This must be done before the Oct. 6 deadline to ensure all citizens who thought they registered to vote may cast a ballot on Election Day.

For more information on how to file a new, correct application, call these voter hotlines, provided by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law: 866 OUR VOTE (866 687-8683) or 888 VE Y VOTA (888 839-8682).

No other organization is conducting such an effort to save registrations that have fallen through the bureaucratic cracks. Several boards of election have been cooperative, recognizing the importance of ensuring that every American who wants to vote is able to vote. In other cases, however, Project Vote is being met with reluctance, resistance, or outright refusal from election boards who seem content to allow thousands of would-be voters to turn up on Election Day and find that they've been left off the rolls.

Note: It is a violation of law in many states to use any of the information on any of these lists for commercial purposes.

What Obama is doing in Missouri - a theory

Mobar — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 18:18:11 GMT

To distract myself from the inevitable pain that will be watching the Patriots beat the snot out of the Chiefs, I'm going to share some impressions on the ground of what is going on in Missouri and speculate as to why Obama is devoting resources to my state.

1. The McCaskill factor. She was with Obama early and strongly. She lost in 04 when she ran for governor and followed the D.C. establishment's plan for how to campaign in Missouri. And she lost to a total tool. When she ran for Senate in 06, she rejected the outsiders advice and spent an enormous amount of time and resources campaigning in out-state Missouri. She won by trimming Talent's margins in out-state. (The divide in MO is not urban vs. rural as much as KC/St.Louis/Columbia and "out-state," which represents the other half of the population and much of which manages to maintain certain "rural" attitudes despite being sizeable populations in cities full of colleges - see Springfield).
Obviously, Obama is not going to be able to campaign in out-state like McCaskill did. But I think she has convinced him that it's worth putting resources in to keep those margins slim. I also think it's worth putting the resources in looking towards governing. There are people in MO who aren't going to be comfortable voting for Obama in 08 who will be supportive of his policies once he's in office.

2. Convincing the white folks. I don't know the best way to approach this, so I'll be blunt. Missouri has some pretty deeply and oddly seeded racial politics. (The "saint" of the MO Dem party, Mel Carnahan, was doing performances in blackface in the 1960's). The most shocking thing for me in the polls I've seen is the number of undecideds. As in, the not insignificant number of MO dems who won't feel comfortable voting for a black man who have yet to jump on the McCain train. I could be wrong, and those undecideds are the religious folks who are holding back on McCain. But in my gut (sorry, no links!) I think the conservative dems are more "independent" than the religious right. I think those undecideds are more open to being convinced to vote for Obama. McCain is their default, but the reason they're undecided is because they're still looking at Obama.

I was about to type that I expect McCain to win MO, but it won't be a blowout. And then I see the Chiefs take a knock at Tom Brady's knee. Who knows what could happen?

3. McCain's ad. I've seen the "not ready to lead" ad a dozen times in the past few days and I question how effective it will be. It's not just that it's pushing a "tax and spend" message which seems unlikely to appeal to the undecideds - the polls indicate he's already tied up that vote here. It's all the old white dudes. Showing Obama working with a series of old white dudes with oatmeal faces and glasses has a potential calming effect on undecideds. A lot of people aren't even going to be able to name the politicians in that commercial. A more effective (for McCain) ad would have included Hillary Clinton, and congressmen/Senators who don't "look like us." Perversely, I don't think the ad buy will hurt Obama. (It's a rich diary for fans of unsupported speculation).

4. Lee's Summit. A few weeks ago, Obama opened a campaign office in Lee's Summit, MO, a suburb of Kansas City and a republican stronghold in heavily democratic Jackson County. No one could remember a democratic presidential campaign opening an office in Lee's Summit. It's applying the basic principle of you have to ask people for their votes. This is pretty obvious, I just mention it so you have a metric of the degree of his commitment to fight here other than campaign appearances. I think it's his 38th office in the state.

Some bonus random thoughts - it's a difficult time to be a liberal democrat in Missouri. McCaskill is conservative. Our nominee for governor (longtime AG Jay Nixon) just put out an ad campaign attacking the republican nominee and identifying himself as a (g.d.) Independent. He doesn't even identify as a democrat in his own commercial, like it's 2002 all over again. He's been elected AG 4 times with a D next to his name. There can't be many people here who don't know he's a Dem, but he feels the need to distance himself from the party nonetheless. He's also rumored to be responsible for recruiting republican Chris Koster to switch parties. Koster is now our nominee for AG. That depressing fact is an entirely different diary.

The bottom line is that at a time where the country seems more agreeable to democratic policies, the conservative forces in the MO dem party are heading in the other direction and, arguably, just turning the dem party here into the Rockefeller Republican party. As a certain governor famously didn't say, Thanks, but no thanks. In that context, Obama opening offices and training/engaging local progressives is highly appreciated by those of us looking to the future. I don't blame others for wondering why he's bothering with MO, but I'm terribly grateful that he is.

Daily Tracking Polls for Saturday

Chris Bowers — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 18:30:00 GMT

The daily tracking polls for Saturday directly contradict one another, with Obama up 2 in Gallup and down 2 in Rasmussen:

Gallup (8/6-8/8, 2,686 RVs, MoE 2, yesterday's number in parenthesis)
Obama: 47 (46)
McCain: 42 (43)

Rasmussen (8/6-8/8, 3,000 LVs, MoE 2, yesterday's results in parenthesis)
McCain: 47 (46)
Obama: 46 (47)

The national trend from Pollster.com shows Obama ahead by 2.4%, although that will probably eke up slightly with the addition of the new Gallup numbers (Rasmussen's numbers from tomorrow, not today, will be added into the average).

With a new poll yesterday, McCain's advantage in Missouri has grown to 2.8%, both in the four-poll average an in the regression trend line. In Michigan, where there was also a new poll yesterday, Obama's advantage has dropped to 3.2% in the four-poll average, and 5.4% in the regression trendline.

The state of the campaign continues to hover between a statistically significant Obama lead, and a statistically insignificant Obama lead. A complete, 50-state survey of the four-poll averages can be found at my Presidential Forecast, and a complete survey of regression trendlines can be found at Pollster.com.

Stopping Voter Suppression: The Press Gets It Right in Virginia

project vote — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:39:24 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns and Nathan Henderson-James

We spend a lot of time in these news updates showing how charges of voter fraud are used to discredit voter participation efforts and prime the pump for voter suppression efforts, such as the passage of voter ID bills, pushing for proof of citizenship, engaging in draconian voter purge efforts, and imposing sever restrictions on voter registration drives. We have also spent a lot of time carefully delineating the politics behind these efforts, starting with our March 2007 report The Politics Of Voter Fraud and continuing on in these diaries to name but two venues.
What is striking about how the process of disenfranchisement and voter suppression works is how much it relies upon the media to repeat and amplify the breathless and hyperbolic accusations of so-called voter fraud against voter registration drives. If journalists were to spend any time at all investigating the sensational claims - often made by people with a direct partisan interest in the outcome of an election - they would find that the accusations are mostly taken out of context, are limited to a few instances, and have never, ever, been proven to have resulted in any fraudulent vote being cast.

Sadly, the history of this issue shows that it has been bereft of this kind of basic journalism, even through the 2006 mid-term elections. This is important because haphazard reporting of partisan claims of voter fraud without checking the facts is how the media helps these voter suppression efforts. These stories not only deter potential voters from getting on the rolls, but, as noted above, inspire bad election reforms aimed at disenfranchising voters, particularly those that are currently underrepresented in the electorate.

A prime example of this kind of lazy journalism in recent weeks comes from Las Vegas where local reporters simply repeated accusations of fraud made by the Clark County clerk against ACORN without even bothering to contact ACORN to see how their drive was being managed.

The group's registration drive has reached one million voters nationwide [Full disclosure - it is run under a Joint Effort Agreement with Project Vote. ~~ed.] and, according to one article, election officials see "rampant fraud" in the 2,000~~ 3,000 cards submitted by the group each week in Las Vegas. This week, the Associated Press reported that the state set up a "voter fraud task force" to look for "election irregularities and instances of questionable voter registration and intimidation," directly citing issues with voter registration drives. Neither of these Nevada reports provided the facts of voter fraud, what it is and how it relates to the voter registration process. Most importantly, neither reports cite real examples of the intentional casting of an illegal ballot - the real definition of voter fraud - in the state.

However, it may be that the hard work Project Vote and others - including the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, DEMOS, and the Advancement Project - have engaged in over the past few years debunking the voter fraud myth is beginning to change the way journalists approach these stories.

This week, several publications broke this trend by debunking recent Virginia GOP allegations of widespread voter fraud as a result of massive voter registration drives that primarily target youth, low income and minority communities - constituencies that have a long history of being underrepresented on the voting rolls and in the voting booth.

Since the beginning of the year, an unprecedented 147,000 people - "almost half under the age of 25" - registered to vote in Virginia, according to Monday's Washington Post lead editorial. Pointing to a recent incident where three members of the Community Voters Project were arrested for falsifying voter registration cards, Republican Party chairman, Del. Jeffrey Frederick of Prince William County claims widespread voter fraud is a hidden agenda in voter registration drives. [CORRECTION: The original Washington Post editorial identified the wrong organization. The Community Voting Project is a project of the Center for Community Change. It is not affiliated with the Community Voters Project and was not involved in this incident].

Remarkably, however, this time the press decided to investigate this inflammatory accusation. This charge is "utterly baseless" and is "unsupported by election officials, police or prosecutors," the Post notes in the editorial. In fact, the Post described the accusation as an exercise in "fear mongering" by Frederick, amplified by his allegations that citizens who register with these drives are also vulnerable to identity theft, a claim that amounts to nothing more than "a classic attempt to suppress votes," the Post editorialized.

Bob Bauer, at his Web site, www.MoreSoftMoneyHardLaw.com, takes the critique one step further, looking at both the accusations and the Post's coverage. "And the Post omits mention of another feature of Fredericks' suppression gambit," wrote the election law attorney. "He also called for an 'investigation,' well understanding that his words would creep into the press on his remarks and filter out into the electorate."

In a prime example of the kind of journalism that should happen as a matter of course when these kinds of serious allegations are made, a Virginia reporter for the Danville Register & Bee reached out to local registrars to get a real idea of the voter registration process and how unlikely it is to lead to voter fraud.

"'It's not easy to falsely register somebody,' said Pittsylvania County Registrar Jenny Saunders, who explained that in addition to the registrar going over the application for obvious errors (like missed questions), there's a statewide database all applications are checked against."

Partisans out for political gain perpetuate fear about the integrity of the election system, something that the media often picks up unfiltered. "In fact," the Post wrote, "it is groundless accusations and cynical fear-mongering such as Mr. Frederick's that are injecting the real venom, and the true threat, into the elections.

Below are some important facts to consider when writing (or reading) reports on voter registration fraud:

Voter Registration Drives Rev up in Presidential Election Years
The fact that young people and minorities are expanding the voting rolls this year does not indicate that something is awry with voter registration drives. Indeed, most large-scale drives target those populations least represented in the electorate. Further, in high interest election years, especially presidential, more people are motivated to help register voters or get registered themselves. Stories about so-called voter fraud should be evaluated in terms of the number of cards thought to be fraudulent versus the total number of cards the registration drive is gathering.
Voter Registration Fraud Does Not Lead to Voter Fraud
"We have the checks and balances...to makes sure the wrong person doesn't get registered and the right person does," said Va. election official, Saunders in the Register & Bee.
Further, professionally-run drives expect almost a third of all applications to be duplicates or incomplete, no matter how well-trained the canvasser or volunteers are. This does not mean they are all illegal. However, the registrar is required to ensure all applications contain accurate information "including whether the applicant is a citizen, their Social Security number, date of birth, full name, valid residence, whether they've been convicted of a felony, or whether they have been determined mentally incapable...If any of that is left off...the application is denied," according to the Register & Bee. Note: Not all states require Social Security number information to be filled out on a voter registration card. For more information on your state's requirements on registering to vote, visit ProjectVote.org.
Allegations of Voter Fraud are Often Motivated By Partisan Gain
"If you're not winning at the ballot box, try your chances in the registrar's office, or in court," the Virginia Pilot editorialized. "[That's] [h]ardly democratic."
Following the success of voter registration drives that have increased registration among low income, minority and young people, almost all claims of rampant voter fraud have come from Republican leaders, despite lack of substantiation of a real problem. The most vicious and corrupt efforts made were part of what has become the US AttorneyGate scandal that subsequently exposed the widespread politicization of the Department of Justice and led to the resignation of Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez. All of that unraveled because former US Attorney David Iglesias refused to make false accusations of voter fraud against ACORN's 2004 voter registration drive in New Mexico.
The fact is between 2002 and 2005 - when the Department of Justice carried out the most intensive investigation of voter fraud in US history - only 24 people were convicted of illegal voting nationwide. However, partisans still made public allegations and the press, in many instances, ran these claims with out real evidence. Armed with these published anecdotes and buoyed by manufactured public outcry about the possibility of their votes being canceled out by illegal voters, legislators fought to pass laws that disenfranchise certain classes of voters. As a result, states like Indiana and Georgia have implemented some of the most draconian voter ID laws despite the lack of any evidence of actual voter fraud.

Reporters practicing ethical and rigorous journalism should recognize that merely using the "rhetorical hand grenade" of voter fraud - without an explanation of how voter registration and elections are administered or an investigation into the evidence of voter fraud - is the real threat to democracy.

Quick Links:
Minnite, Lorraine. "The Politics of Voter Fraud. "Project Vote. March 2007.
Voter Registration Guides and Surveys [By State]. Project Vote

In Other News:

A voting penalty after the penalty - Birmingham Press-RegisterAnnette McWashington Pruitt watched her 18-year-old son graduate from high school this May. She proudly tells people that he is going into the Navy, following in the footsteps of his older brother (who is serving in Iraq) and his grandfather (who was in the Air Force).

Voting Rules Create Land of Disenchantment: Advocacy groups are battling New Mexico's strict voter registration laws as election looms - Miller-McCune
Jo Ann Gutierrez-Bejar remembers volunteering for the annual voter registration drive in Albuquerque, N.M. She remembers the camaraderie as the group of usually 30 to 40 volunteers headed out in the morning, clipboards in hand, to knock on doors and register new voters.

Denogean: 97-year-old voter can't prove she's a citizen: On deathbed, father told her to vote Democratic - The Tucson Press
Shirley Freeda Preiss of Surprise is one ticked-off little old lady. And who can blame her? The 97-year-old retired schoolteacher and onetime traveling showgirl has voted in every presidential election since 1932 when she cast a ballot for Franklin Delano Roosevelt. But thanks to the state's voter identification requirements, it's looking unlikely that she'll be able to vote in the upcoming presidential election.

Watch your (official) language - Stateline.org
Missouri, a key presidential swing state and home to one of the most hotly contested gubernatorial races, will test what some see as voters' attitudes toward immigrants this November with a ballot measure to make English the only language of state government.

How To Boost The Electorate In Florida: Enforce the National Voter Registration Act

project vote — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 20:18:40 GMT

By Nathan Henderson-James and cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters.

A Sunday news story by Catherine Dolinsky in the Tampa Tribune highlights Florida's failure to comply with the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) and talks extensively about the joint efforts of Project Vote, Demos, and ACORN to force Florida to follow this federal law. Dolinksy quotes ACORN's Florida Head Organizer Brian Kettering on the civil rights implications of Florida's failure,

"Hispanic and African-American communities are being deprived of the opportunity to register to vote at a higher rate than anybody else," Kettenring said. "So this is a fairness issue, but it's also a civil rights issue."

Dolinksy also talked with Moritz College of Law Professor Dan Tokaji, who blogs at Equal Vote.

"The 1993 federal law requires a variety of state offices to provide voting registration assistance - most notably, departments of motor vehicles. Congress included public assistance agencies in the mix to ensure that low-income people who don't drive are also included, said Daniel Tokaji, a law professor at Ohio State University and expert on voting rights.

"This is the group where we need the most work, because it is the group least likely to participate in elections," Tokaji said. "The biggest problem with our democracy is that we don't have a representative electorate; people who are elected are not representative of the citizenry as a whole."

Project Vote, Demo, and ACORN have informed Florida of a potential lawsuit based on its failure to comply with the NVRA.

"According to Florida Division of Elections data, public assistance agencies turned in 9 percent of voter registrations received in 1995. By 2007, they were contributing 1.8 percent. By 2007, agency registrations had dropped from 120,886 to 10,470.

Meanwhile, enrollment in Florida's assistance programs has remained relatively steady.

According to the Department of Children & Families, the average number of poor Floridians receiving cash assistance fell from 569,158 in 1995-96 to just 76,986 in 2007-08, reflecting the tightened welfare requirements that Congress passed in 1996. Average monthly participation in the food stamps program declined by about 45,000 over the same period to just under 1.4 million.

But those declines are nearly offset by Florida's Medicaid enrollment increase alone. The average monthly number of Medicaid beneficiaries grew from 1.2 million in 1995-96 to more than 1.7 million in 2007-08, DCF data indicate. Participation in WIC, a subsidized nutrition program for low-income women, infants and children, rose from 332,135 in 1995-96 to 420,514 in 2006-07."

This work is part of Project Vote's on-going NVRA Implementation Project, which targets states with high enrollment rates in public assistance programs and relatively large populations from Project Vote's constituency groups which are low-income voters, voters of color, and New American voters. The project, carried out in conjunction with ACORN and Demos, has filed a similar complaint in Arizona and is suing in Ohio and Missouri.

Ultimately, as Professor Tokaji notes, a healthy democracy demands participation of all its citizens and the electorate must represent the citizenry. The NVRA is one of the best tools for bringing the electorate in alignment with the citizenry and it is incumbent upon the states to do everything they can to comply with the law.

Missouri is NOT a Swing State

HalLew — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 22:10:32 GMT

Is Missouri really a swing state anymore? Has it even been a swing state in recent history? In reporting the result of his latest poll Rasmussen calls Missouri a "classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House." While there is no denying the fact that Missouri has given its EVs to the eventual President in 23 of the 25 Presidential elections in the 20th century, and both elections in the 21st century, I don't believe that Missouri is the harbinger that pundits make it out to be, nor has it been for more than two decades. Having lived in Missouri for the past four years, and for 9 of the past 12 years, this feels like a Republican state that occasionally gives a state-wide victory to a Democrat. Essentially, we are a Republican state that will sometimes casts a protest vote against the Republicans, not necessarily for the Democrats.

The last time Missouri gave 50+% to a Democrat was 1976 when Carter got 51.1% to Ford's 47.5%. Since then the Dem take is 44.4% (1980), 40.0% (1984), 47.9% (1988), 44.1% (1992), 47.5% (1996), 47.1% (2000), 46.1% (2004). Sure, Clinton carried Missouri in 1992 and 1996, but would he have done so without Perot? The numbers from 1988, 2000 and 2004 don't seem to support the notion that Clinton would have won Missouri without Perot. The numbers reveal what I feel in my gut as a resident of this state - that we are a lean Republican state and that the general ceiling for a Democratic Presidential candidate here is about 47%. Lets look at the Dem. take in the elections of 1980 - 2004 for Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana below and see which one looks most like a swing state.

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Iowa: 38.6%, 45.9%, 54.7%, 43.3%, 50.3%, 48.5%, 49.2%
Missouri: 44.4%, 40.0%, 47.9%, 44.1%, 47.5%, 47.1%, 46.1%
Arkansas: 47.5%, 38.3%, 42.2%, 53.2%, 53.7%, 45.9%, 44.6%
Louisiana: 45.8%, 38.2%, 44.1%, 45.6%, 52.0%, 44.9%, 42.2%

On average Missouri gives 45.3% of its vote to the Dem. candidate with a standard deviation of 2.8% for all seven elections since 1980. If you take away 1992 and 1996 and only count elections when there were two major candidates, Missouri's numbers don't really change, the average is 45.1% and the standard deviation is 3.1%.

Iowa has the highest support for Dem. candidates, but also has by far the most variability in supporting the Dem. candidate. For all seven elections the average is 47.2% and the standard deviation of 5.2%. Taking away 1992 and 1996, the numbers stay about the same - 47.4% average and standard deviation of 5.9%.

Unlike Missouri and Iowa, Arkansas' numbers differ greatly when you exclude the Clinton elections (for obvious reasons). For all seven elections Arkansas' average support for the Dem. candidate is 46.5% and the standard deviation is 5.6%. Take away 1992 and 1996 and the average is 43.7% while the standard deviation of 3.6%.

Louisiana is more like Missouri and Iowa in that their average and standard deviation numbers are not greatly affected by the Clinton elections. For all seven elections Louisiana's average support for the Dem. candidate is 44.7% and the standard deviation is 4.2%. Take away 1992 and 1996 and the average is 43.0% while the standard deviation of 3.0%.

Of these four states, Iowa has voted for the loser twice (1988 and 2000) in the past seven elections. The other three states have all voted for the winner in all seven elections. Only one of these states has given the winner a 50+% majority in all seven election, and it is NOT Missouri, it is Arkansas. While it is easy to dismiss the last point since Arkansas is the only state of the four to give its popular form governor over 50% in 1992 and 1996, it is still worth noting that for the other five elections Arkansas and Louisiana resemble Missouri to about the same extent in average support of Dem. candidates and standard deviation - Arkansas is a little closer in average and Louisiana is a little closer in standard deviation. Excluding 1992 and 1996, Iowa differs from Missouri most in average support of Dem. candidates and standard deviation.

If you insist on looking at all seven elections since 1980 the state that most resembles Missouri is Louisiana in terms of average support of Dem. candidates and standard deviation. The state that least resembles Missouri over the past seven elections in average support of Dem. candidates is Iowa, however in terms of standard deviation it is Arkansas (by a small amount over Iowa) due to the Clinton elections.

So, the way I see it there are two ways to interpret this data: (1) Iowa is not a swing state, since it resembles Missouri the least in terms of supporting Dem. candidates, while Arkansas and Louisiana, which resemble Missouri quite a bit in their support of Dem. candidates and certainly much more so than Iowa, are swing states; (2) Missouri, which closely resembles Arkansas and Louisiana in its support of Dem. candidates, is a relatively reliable red state, while Iowa is a genuine swing state.

It is obvious that I prefer interpretation (2). While there is no disputing the fact that Missouri has voted for the winner in the past 7 Presidential elections (and 25 of the last 27), I think it is overly simplistic to say my home state is a swing state, let alone a "classic swing state" as Rasmussen puts it. The fact is that over the past seven elections the nation has elected a Republican 5 times and, as a Republican state, we too voted for the Republican. When the right split its vote in 1992 and 1996 with the candidacy of Perot, like many other Republican states we gave our EVs to the Dem. candidate via a plurality victory, not a majority victory. As far as states that voted Republican in 2004 that I think are more likely to go Democratic this year than Missouri, I think the list is quite long: New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska and North Carolina for sure. I think all eleven of these states will give a higher percentage of their vote to Obama than will Missouri. In fact, even though the current polling says otherwise, I think Mississippi and Georgia have a better chance of being in the Obama column than Missouri. At least they have large black populations that could come out in droves and put Obama over the top should the white voters remain under enthused by McCain. Missouri lacks this Obama constituency. We are basically a southern state without a large black population. This last point is too often missed by mainstream pundits: we are NOT a traditional Midwestern swing state like Iowa or Wisconsin or Ohio - we are a relatively reliable southern Republican state like Arkansas when it comes to Presidential elections. Sure, like Arkansas we will send moderate/conservative Dems. to Washington as Representatives and Senators (Skelton, McCaskill), we will even put a Dem. in the Governor's mansion, but we won't give our EVs to the Dems. in Presidential elections. So the next time you see a pundit or pollster claim Missouri is a swing state, just ignore it. The next few decades are going to see numerous Democratic administrations, and I am certain that in more cases than not these Democratic administrations will have won without the support of the Show-Me state.

The Real Price of War and the Takeover of Anhauser-Busch in St. Louis

howardpark — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 04:40:42 GMT

In the 1800s immigrants from Germany and other mid-European countries flocked to cities like Cincinnatti, Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis. They built many things including great breweries, like Strohs, Blatz, Miller, Schlitz, Pabst, Falstaff and a thousand lesser ones. The greatest brewery of them all was Anheuser-Busch in St. Louis. I went to high school just 10 blocks from the 100 square block Busch brewery complex in St. Louis. If the breeze was just right, the smell of hops would blow in and engulf our classroom. It was a reassuring smell. It meant union jobs at solid middle class wages with great benefits that had been won thanks to strong unions and a paternalistic management. Anheuser-Busch, then & now, was the cornerstone of St. Louis.
Our city had once been known for being "first in shoes, first in booze, and last in the American League."
The St. Louis Browns left St. Louis in the early 1950s. The shoe industry left in the 1960s. St. Louis was once second only to Detroit in auto production. The population of the City of St. Louis has declined by close to two-thirds from it's peak in the immediate post-World War Two era (the suburbs grew, but the area declined on a relative bass). Corporate giants like Ralston-Purena, Pet, Southwestern Bell, Emerson Electric, TWA, McDonnell Douglas, Mallinckrodt have all been taken over or moved away. Virtually all of the locally owned banks have been swallowed up. Measured by the loss of population density, St. Louis has fallen even more than cities like Detroit or Newark. About half of the airport is shuttered. In the early 1970s a huge public housing project, one of the worst urban disaster areas in the history of the world, Pruitt-Igoe, once home to over 30,000, was dynamited. Today, over 30 years later, only weeds grow on the site.

We had two world class institutions left. The greatest baseball franchise in the National League and the greatest brewer in the World, Anheuser-Busch. Soon, only the Cardinals will remain.

Thanks to the weak dollar -- a direct result of oil addiction and the incredibly wasteful war in Iraq, American business is at its knees. We have to sell something to the world that still takes our greenbacks in exchange for real goods, mostly from China. European manufacturing is down too but the countries of the EU don't have the military burden that overhangs the American economy. The latest victim is once proud Anheuser-Busch which is about to be taken over by a company from Belgium, InBev, known only for ruthless cost cutting. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080611/ap_on_bi_ge/anheuser_busch_inbev_6 ) Seriously "In Bev"? Before a few weeks ago had anybody ever heard of InBev? Only one thing is important, InBev has a lot of Euros and that is worth more than a lot of dollars.

St. Louis won't wash away in the next big Mississippi flood. The city is a thriving medical center. It is a regional capital in the middle of the most productive farms on Earth. The Cardinals still routinely beat the Cubs. A fine microbrewery, Schlafley, has grown. There is still a lot of train & truck traffic. It is a central location. St. Louis has great cultural institutions. People can buy huge homes in St. Louis for the price of a closet in Chicago. St. Louis will never run out of water, which is what built the great brewers, along with railroads, in the first place.

St. Louis also still has the Gateway Arch and the finest skyline between Chicago & San Francisco. The Arch is a memorial to westward expansion. It now stands for something else. The great movement of capital back east, back to Europe, back to the old world. The Bush administration sends Americans to fight & die for nothing, we shed our blood, we shed our treasure while our country is bought up by more sensible Europeans who don't waste thier children or their Euros on stupid wars. This Buds for you, InBev, and for every country that understands that peace means profit while war means ruin and oil means a drain while alternative energy is the future. I hope the future, once again, comes to my hometown. Until then, St. Louis might as well just sell itself in a yard sale to our European competitors.

If you wish, go to www.saveab.com. Missouri is the ultimate swing srate. Let's NEVER, ever, let the Republicans forget that Anheuser-Busch was destroyed on thier watch. The jobs may never come back to St. Louis. Let's make sure that the Republican war monger wasteful spenders never get thier jobs back.

Disappointment with the DNCC

clarkent — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 18:23:15 GMT

Crossposted from Show Me Progress.

As Michael alluded to on Friday, Show Me Progress was rejected (twice) in our bid for credentials to cover the Democratic National Convention. The credential for Missouri's slot in the state blog pool went to Fired Up Missouri, and no other Missouri-based blog was credentialed in the general blog pool. You can read up on some of the controversy elsewhere; Matt Stoller, Kos and Pam Spaulding have some good roundups of different angles of controversy in the selection process. But I want to talk specifically about our own disappointment with the results.
When hotflash and I first talked about putting together a progressive Democratic community blog for the state, there was nothing like it in Missouri. Don't get me wrong - there are plenty of good political blogs here. But most of the political blogs based in Missouri are narrowly focused on a city or region, or primarily comment on national news, or are nonpartisan newsy blogs. Fired Up Missouri was probably closest to the kind of blog we wanted to be a part of, in that they cover state political news, and one doesn't have to be a frontpager to contribute something more than a comment. But while they do an excellent job of hammering Republican malfeasance, they don't really cover Democratic politics in any meaningful way, other than to contrast them with their Republican opponents. On Show Me Progress, we've covered a peace rally featuring a famous wounded vet, the new party organizing system, an on-the-ground report on the Bush-McCain Challenge in action, a shakeup in the Democratic primary in the 2nd CD, a profile of a Democratic Party activist in Springfield and her successes, and coverage of the first Democratic Attorney General debate, to name a few. And that's just in the past week. We also covered the state convention, our ward and congressional caucuses, not to mention myriad interviews with national, state, and local candidates. I haven't seen any of that with Fired Up Missouri. With all due respect to Fired Up, covering Democratic politics from the bottom up is not something they do.

So that brings up the question of how Fired Up Missouri was chosen over us and why. In my own view, it's not malign - it's as simple as the Carnahans' connections (Fired Up is former US Senator Jean Carnahan's operation) coupled with higher readership stats and a longer history. Judging by some of the other DNCC blogger choices, they wanted to reliably transmit their message to the largest online audience possible. They believe that Fired Up will perform well in that regard, though I'm curious to see how extensive the coverage actually is. (A higher readership doesn't mean squat for getting out your message if there aren't many posts.)

What the DNCC seemed to leave out of the consideration is what covering the convention means for us in the state blogosphere. Official recognition is nice, but I don't really care about the pat on the head so much as the huge networking opportunity represented by all those party officials, electeds, and activists in one giant four day party. It's also an opportunity for us to talk one-to-one with all of the above about how better serve Missouri through internet outreach, and to swap tips and contacts with our fellow bloggers. And yeah, the higher traffic would be nice, too. To the extent that the national and Missouri Democratic Party wants an energized activist base, they would be better served by someone like us on the floor with the Missouri delegation.

To some extent, we will still be taking our bite of the pie. Blue Girl and hotflash are going to Denver, and I'm still mulling over whether I can afford it (I wouldn't hesitate if we actually had credentials - it would be worth it). We may still be able to have access to the Missouri delegation outside the convention hall, and there will be a satellite media center for bloggers, also outside the convention center. And we might even be able to temporarily gain access to the convention center with borrowed or guest credentials. But we won't be able to come and go as we please, we definitely won't have floor access to our delegation, and the access we will have will be highly limited. It would be nice if the door were open to us, instead of having our own party throw up a big roadblock.

UPDATED - VICTORY!: MO Bid To Disenfranchise 300,000 Down To The Wire!

project vote — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:16:20 GMT

By Nathan Henderson-James

Partisan efforts to keep up to 300,000 eligible Missouri citizens, mostly progressive-leaning voters from elderly and low-income demographics but also including such large blocks as married women, permanently off the voting rolls are coming to a head in the Missouri Senate today as the Legislature prepares to adjourn. Measures not passed by that time will die, pending the Governor calling a special session.

Voting rights and progressive activists, led by Missourians for Fair Elections are fighting back and report an extremely tough but increasingly winnable fight against what the Kansas City Star is calling a "real deception...being perpetrated by legislators, whose claims of fraud are driving what appears to be a political agenda".

Robin Carnahan, Missouri's Secretary of State, and an opponent of the measure, HJR 48 - which would amend Missouri's constitution to require proof of citizenship to register and vote, will be holding a press conference today in Kansas City to point out the partisan agenda behind this measure.
As previously reported in these diaries from last Friday, Monday, and yesterday, Missouri politicians are pushing a measure to change the state constitution to allow strict voter ID and proof of citizenship requirements. This was prompted by a 2006 Missouri Supreme Court ruling that struck down a strict voter ID bill as unconstitutional.

Local Missouri activists expect that Secretary of State Carnahan will emphasize the following points in her press conference today:

*Missourians have already been through this in 2006 and our identification requirements in Missouri are fine, and they work - we have fair elections without fraud and people are allowed to vote. There's no need to take the drastic step of altering our constitution just so that restrictive measures that suppress votes can be imposed on voters.
*In 2006, a more restrictive photo ID law was passed that was ruled unconstitutional because it was a burden and poll tax on voters, so now the Republicans just want to change the constitution to strip away voting rights protections.

Reports from officials with Missourians for Fair Elections suggest that the field work and wave of publicity and editorials from across the state are having the effect of exposing the partisan nature of this campaign while putting pressure on Senate leadership to refuse to consider the measure before the Senate adjourns.

Using flyers and door-to-door canvasses to generate on-the-spot calls to specific legislators, MFE has been able to to generate an unprecedented number of calls on this issue, which seem to be limiting the number of Senators willing to stop a potential filibuster of this measure and facilitating the disenfranchisement of poor, elderly, and low-income citizens.

For more information on this urgent work and how you can get invovled, contact Missourians for Fair Elections at mofairelections@gmail.com or 314-363-5571.

UPDATE: Members of the Missouri Catholic community have expressed grave concerns that citizens in the state, including religious sisters, will be unjustly denied their right to vote if this misguided bill passes. The Sisters of Mercy released a public statement today:

"We are deeply concerned that legislation of this kind has severe unintended consequences that present substantial barriers for all citizens to exercise their political and moral responsibilities. We strongly urge all citizens in Missouri to contact their representatives and ask them to vote against this measure," said Sr. Jane Hotstream, RSM, president of the St. Louis Regional Community of the Sisters of Mercy.

UPDATE II - VICTORY!

Below is the press release from Missourians for Fair Elections celebrating the failure of HJR 48 and its photo ID and proof of citizenship requirements.

MFE has been tireless in their opposition to this voter disenfranchisement effort. Their work featured an innovative phone and field program that generated literally thousands of calls from voter who identified as both Democrats and Republicans to important legislators in opposition to this measure.

They were also able to generate blanket media coverage in the state and important progressive media on the national stage. All the major and many of the minor newspapers in the state editorialized against the proposed amendment.

The combined that work with inside work in Jefferson City contacting elected officials directly about the measure and pressing their opposition to it.

And it all paid off as HJR 48 failed to be called for a vote before the session ended at 6PM CDT today.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - May 16, 2008
Contact: Laura Egerdal, Missourians for Fair Elections, 314-363-5571
Julie Terbrock, Missourians for Fair Elections, 314-660-3843

Proposed Photo ID Legislation Failed

Constitutional Change to Restrict Voting Rights Faced Groundswell of Opposition from Across the State

JEFFERSON CITY, MO - In a victory for all voters, Missouri lawmakers ended this year's legislative session without a final vote on legislation that could have prevented up to 240,000 Missourians from voting. The proposed change would have altered Missouri's constitution, allowing for strict citizenship and government-issued photo ID requirements that would make Missouri one of the toughest states in the country for eligible, law-abiding citizens to register to vote or cast a ballot.

"I am relieved that I will be able to vote this fall," said Lillie Lewis, a St. Louis city resident, "I've been voting in every election since I can remember, but if I needed my birth certificate, that would be the end of that. I hope this is the last we hear of this nonsense." Lillie Lewis was born in Mississippi, but the state sent her a letter stating they have no record of her birth.

Birdell Owen, a Missouri resident who was displaced by hurricane Katrina, also voiced her relief. "I should be able to participate in my democracy," she said, "even if Louisiana can't get me a copy of my birth certificate. I'm glad Missouri politicians had the sense to protect my right to vote."

As the bill began to move, a broad coalition of groups and voters across the state worked to educate citizens and legislators about the negative impact of such policy changes on real voters. Missourians for Fair Elections reports over 4,200 calls were made to lawmakers in the past two weeks urging them to not consider this legislation. Catholic organizations, such as the Franciscan Sisters of Saint Mary, and the Sisters of Mercy of the Americas issued statements voicing deep concerns with the legislation. The AARP, League of Women Voters, labor organizations, disability advocates, community organizations and progressive leaders worked around the clock for the past two weeks to make sure the concerns of Missouri voters were heard.

In 2006, despite serious opposition from voting rights experts, election officials and voters, the Missouri legislature passed an overly-restrictive photo ID measure that was later found unconstitutional by the Missouri Supreme Court because it amounted to a poll tax and Missouri's current identification requirements are sufficient. This year's proposed legislation would have altered the constitution in an attempt to allow restrictive voting laws to pass constitutional muster. Such restrictive laws include government-issued photo ID and proof of citizenship requirements to register to vote and to vote.

Kathleen Weinschenk, of Columbia, Missouri, has been fighting to protect her right to vote, and that of others, since 2006. She has cerebral palsy, and doesn't drive because of her disability. Without a birth certificate from Arkansas, she cannot get a Missouri photo ID. Kathleen is elated that the constitution will not be changed to prohibit her from voting. "Today, freedom rings," she said.

Block The Vote! Proof of Citizenship On The Rise, Flashpoint Mo.

project vote — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:57:43 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Requiring proof-of-citizenship in order to register to vote is the latest addition to voter suppression arsenal. Spurred by Arizona's 2004 implementation of proof of citizenship requirements and the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to uphold Indiana's strict voter ID law, proof of citizenship bills - often coupled with voter ID - are gaining traction across the country. With more than 13 million Americans lacking ready access to citizenship documentation and scant evidence of voter registration fraud by non-citizens (or any voter for that matter) leading to illegal votes, proof of citizenship requirements could have a significant impact on the electorate. Wasting no time after the high court's decision, the neighboring states of Kansas and Missouri have swiftly moved forward with efforts to pass such legislation that could take effect in the November election.
Missouri's HJR 48 - a constitutional amendment to require proof of identification at the polls - also requires proof of citizenship in order register to vote. As the New York Times reported on the front page Monday, "sponsors of the amendment - which requires the approval of voters to go into effect, possibly in an August referendum - say it is part of an effort to prevent illegal immigrants from affecting the political process. Critics say the measure could lead to the disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of legal residents who would find it difficult to prove their citizenship."

Missouri's own Secretary of State, Robin Carnahan estimates 300,000 voters could be disenfranchised this November for what she considers to be a Republican wild goose chase for "'mythical problems,'" according to ConsortiumNews.com and the Associated Press, respectively.

Carnahan questions the type of "voter fraud" cited by advocates - including the ultimately rectified voter registration of a dog - as none of it would be resolved by voter ID, according to the Columbia Daily Tribune: "Have we had instances of improper voting registrations? Yes. Have we had instances of improper absentee voting? Yes. Is this government ID to vote going to impact any of those? No."

Carnahan said there have been no reports of voter impersonation fraud in the state, rendering requirements to prove citizenship to register and identity to vote useless at best and disenfranchising at worst.

The situation in Missouri is especially urgent as the state Senate must decide the fate of the constitutional amendment before the legislative session ends Friday. And even if the amendment fails to come to a vote, the governor has the option to call a special session just to consider this highly partisan (it passed in the Missouri State House on a strict party-line vote) measure. Advocates are preparing for the worst and gearing up to fight the amendment at the ballot box in August.

Rapidly progressing proof-of-citizenship/voter ID hybrid legislation is not exclusive to Missouri. Last week, Kansas' legislature approved HB 2019, a measure to require both proof of citizenship at registration from first-time applicants and voter ID from all voters at the polls. Despite approval by the legislature, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius' office is expected to veto the bill "as she has other voter ID legislation in the past," according to the Wichita Eagle.

"To its earliest proponents, voter registration was intended as an anti-fraud safeguard" and occurrences of fraud have been rare, according to Project Vote report, "The Politics of Voter Fraud." According to the report, between 2002 and 2005, 21 non-citizens were prosecuted for voter registration fraud across the country. Four of these were dismissed, one was acquitted, three pleaded guilty and thirteen were convicted.

And despite their best efforts, the federal government was only able to secure convictions of 11 non citizens for voting illegally during the same period. That is to say, 11 votes out of 214 million cast for federal elections were by non citizens.

In addition to allegedly preventing the rare crimes of voter registration fraud and voter impersonation fraud - crimes for which there are already laws on the books to prevent - citizenship and ID requirements create obstacles for many Americans who want to participate in the democratic electoral process. Polling data by a Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law survey found that 13 million individuals were without ready access to citizenship documentation, including birth certificate, passports and naturalization papers.

Currently, only Arizona requires proof of citizenship to register to vote. Since adopting the measure in 2004, more than 38,000 voter registration applications have been thrown out, according to the New York Times. "More than 70 percent of those registrations came from people who stated under oath that they were born in the United States, the data showed."

To date, Project Vote has monitored proof-of-citizenship bills introduced in 19 states, including Kansas' HB 2019 and Missouri's HJR 48. Currently, 11 states have pending proof of citizenship legislation. To track these bills, visit Project Vote election bill tracking website, ElectionLegislation.org.

The following states are considering proof of citizenship requirements at registration as of May 15, 2008: Calif., Ill., Kan., Mass., Mich., Minn., Mo., N.Y., Okla., S.C., and Tenn.

Quick Links:
For more information on the fight in Missouri contact Laura Egerdal at 314-363-5571 or Missourians for Fair Elections at mofairelections@gmail.com.
Pending Proof of Citizenship Bills:
Calif:
A 2317
Sponsor: Asm. Mimi Walters (R-73)
Ill.
S 103
Sponsor: Sen. Chris Lauzen (R-25)
Kan.
H 2019
Governor: Kathleen Sebelius
Mass.
H 648
Sponsor: Rep. Paul K. Frost (R-7th Worcester)
H 653
Sponsor: Rep. Bradford R. Hill (R-4th Essex)
Mich.
H 5337
Sponsor: Rep. David Law (R 39)
Minn.
S 188
Sponser: Sen. Amy Koch (R-19)
Mo.
HJR 48
Sponsor: Rep. Stanley Cox (R-118)
H 1317
Sponsor: Rep. Cynthia L. Davis (R-19)
N.Y.
S 6543
Sponsor: Sen John J. Flanagan (R-2)
Okla.
H 1803
Sponsor: Rep. Randy Terrill (R-53)
S 417
Sponsor: Sen. Anthony Sykes (R-24)
S.C.
H 3343
Sponsor: Rep. Gloria Haskins (R-22)
Tenn.
H 408, H 409
Sponsor: Rep. Curry Todd (R-95)
H 3050, H 3052
Sponsor: Rep. Jason Mumpower (R-3)
S 1610, S 1611
Sponsor: Sen. Mark S. Norris (R-32)
S 2794, S 2810
Sponsor: Sen. Jim Tracy (R-16)

In Other News:

BLOG: Missourians: Take Action Now or Lose Voting Rights, Dem Victory - Art Levine; Huffington Post
Missouri, the battleground state that has accurately picked the presidential winner in every election since the 1950s, now faces an unprecedented peril this week: the theft of the voting rights of at least 240,000 of its citizens (nuns included) and the sure loss of the swing state of Missouri to Republicans in the Presidential race in November. And If Obama, the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party loses Missouri, he will likely lose the fall election as well.

Wyo works to avoid absentee ballot fraud - Jackson Hole Star Tribune
CHEYENNE -- Wyoming county election officials appear to be well ahead of other states in how they prevent fraud with absentee ballots in nursing homes.

Confusing ballot designs still plague elections - Associated Press
The solution should have been a no-brainer, voting experts say. After all, it was a badly designed ballot that enflamed the 2000 election meltdown and introduced the vagaries of chads to the political lexicon - pregnant, hanging and otherwise.

Erin Ferns is a Research and Policy Analyst with Project Vote's Strategic Writing and Research Department (SWORD).