In a democracy that can only boast that 71 percent of its citizens are registered and able to exercise their civic duty in any given election, access to the franchise is crucial. For decades, millions of citizens have relied on either voter registration drives or government agencies to help them get on the voter rolls. Today, however, private voter registration drives are under attack, while some states are ignoring their responsibilities to reach unregistered citizens. If community-based drives are prevented from helping Americans get registered, and government agencies won't help them, then who will?
In several states, elected officials and partisan groups are intent on stifling the proven effectiveness of voter registration drives run by private individuals and organizations. Despite the partisan-spun "scandals" that come with third-party voter registration drives, they are undeniably effective in reaching large portions of the population.
"According to the 2008 CPS, nearly 9 million citizens [or 8 percent] reported having registered 'at a voter registration drive,'" wrote Doug Hess and Jody Herman in Project Vote report, Representational Bias in the 2008 Electorate. "This likely seriously undercounts the total impact of voter registration drives, however, as 9.4 million citizens (another 8 percent) reported that they registered 'at a school, hospital, or on campus'-all locations where voter registration drives are often conducted by civic organizations and student groups."
Another 9.7 million registered to vote through mail-in voter registration applications, many of whom presumably received these applications from voter drives or organizations that distributed the forms through the postal or electronic mail.
Voter registration drives are protected as a form of free speech under the First Amendment, as well as provisions under the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (which directly protects and encourages community-run voter registration drives as the law's primary purpose is to ensure more citizens are registered to vote). Yet lawmakers and election officials in states like Nevada are looking to regulate and criminalize voter registration drives so thoroughly, that they can create a "chilling effect on community-based voter registration, causing many organizations to curtail or cease their voter registration efforts."
A national health insurance reform bill is on the brink of passing and all is well on Capitol Hill.
But that doesn't mean too much for the rest of the country. Much of the country still wants more than a public-option-free, far-from-single-payer, band-aid-like bill to fix our broken health care system. One writer states, from the interesting vantage point of Australia, where they do have universal health care:
But Australia has something that America lacks: a universal public system that provides basic medical services for all.
Here, thanks to Medicare, you can be cared for in a public hospital without going broke regardless of your health insurance status...But the political compromise [Barack Obama's] been forced to adopt fails to address the morbidity at the heart of the system.
It's taking the disease and trying to turn it into the cure.
The solution, the real health care reform that we've been asking for since Teddy Roosevelt's time, lies with the state single payer movement. And, at least here in Pennsylvania, we're moving full speed ahead. All that this bill means for us is that we'd better move fast if we want real health care reform any time soon.
There is a lot of discussion right now about how Senators from small states hold too much power compared to the percent of population they represent. There's a lot of truth to this. Alex MacGillis of The Washington Post wrote in an analysis column in their Sunday Outlook section, and David Sirota and Nathan Newman have done good pieces on the topic as well. The simple facts are that the key gang of six negotiating health care in the Senate Finance Committee represent less than 3% of the nation's population; that the 10 largest states are home to over half the country's population but represent only 20% of the Senate; the 21 smallest states together have less total population than California does.
It's good that people are raising these issues, and pointing out this unfairness. The plain fact of the matter, though, is that absent a constitutional convention suddenly being held, there is no changing this particular injustice. It would take 2/3 of the Senate, after all, to pass a constitutional amendment to restructure the Senate, and virtually all of the Senators from small states would vote against it. So we are stuck for now.
What we ought to be focused on instead are strategies that might work.
(This is one of the key battlegrounds moving forward into future elections. Right now, it's a still-fragmented multi-front battle, but that only makes the need for national attention and federal action all the more apparent. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
Following an historic turnout in the 2008 election comes a flurry of election reform agendas from both sides of the battle over voting rights. Since November 4, some state lawmakers have seized on the success of early voting and Election Day Registration (EDR) as models for facilitating voter registration, while others appear to have been threatened by the heightened turnout and inspired to introduce restrictive voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bills for the 2009 legislative session.
Following what appears to be significant progress this year in closing participation gaps among historically underrepresented young and minority voters, we review Election Day stories in states with voter ID and EDR laws, and preview next year's legislative battle for election reform.
National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Missouri
99%
49%
50%
11
NE-02
100%
49%
50%
1
Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.
Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).
Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.
Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.
This is the first in a series of Grassroots Reports we'll be releasing over the final weeks of the election cycle to let the blogosphere know what 21st Century Democrats is doing to help elect Democrats in several of the country's battleground states. This report focuses on Montana, where Barack Obama is making a strong push to be the first Democrat to take the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Our Montana program is called "Big Sky! Big Win! " and Wendy Davis, our National Field & Training Director, and I both traveled to the state recently to help coordinate our ground game. We have four senior organizers working in Missoula, Helena, Butte, Bozeman and Billings - where about half of Montana's votes will be cast. In mid-October, we dispatched five additional organizers to get out the vote on the state's Native American reservations.
Big Sky! Big Win! is all about identifying supporters early and making sure we get them out to polls on election day. We added 10,000 voters to our "Yes List" in September and are working toward another 10,000 voters in the first three weeks of October. We will use this list of supporters to run our get-out-the-vote program and maximize the Democratic turnout on Election Day. Our organizers and volunteers have already made thousands of phone calls and knocked on hundreds of doors.
I just returned from Montana a few days ago and I can honestly tell you that people are excited about the Democratic ticket - but we need to make sure we harness their energy and win this election! 21st Century Democrats is thrilled to be working with our partners in Montana to elect Democrats up and down the ticket, including three of our endorsed candidates:
Just a few short weeks before the election Montana's Republican Party Director has resigned. No, not to spend more time with his family, but instead to take another opportunity in the private sector.
This comes after a controversy I reported on earlier this month in gest, but the long and short is that 6,000 voters on the rolls in Missoula were challenged by the GOP, but when asked for the list of people "challenged" so that those folks could be checked out or would know that their registration was being challenged, the GOP said they wouldn't hand over the list. This just SCREAMS of dirty tactics.
Matt Segal, of the Student Association for Voter Empowerment (SAVE), and Forward Montana questioned the criminality of the MT GOP. In an op-ed by Segal, where he proposed criminal charges for those using these tactics:
Yesterday the Republican Party of Montana announced that it was abandoning its plans to challenge the voting eligibility of at least 6,000 residents of that state-mostly in democratic strongholds-who had filed change-of-address cards with the U.S. Postal Service. In a letter sent to election officials in seven counties, state GOP executive director Jacob Eaton withdrew the party's challenges and said they would be issuing no more. Several hundred letters requesting that individuals confirm their correct addresses had already gone out from overworked election offices before the GOP withdrew its challenge.
There is a new poll out today that shows Obama ahead by 5% in Alaska, 45%-40%. It is from a Democratic firm, and outlies a bit from other recent polls in the state. Despite those negatives against the poll, it does at least confirm that Alaska is indeed a swing state in this election. The most recent poll from the four polling organizations to survey Alaska in the past month now show an average of McCain 46.5%--43.0% Obama.
This got me to thinking--what about the other red states that Bush won by about 20% in 2004, but that seem competitive in 2008? These states include Georgia, Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota. The Obama campaign is targeting all of these states with paid media and staff, so they feel it might be competitive, too.
To answer this question, follow me to the extended entry for a quick round of mapchanging fact and fiction, deep red state edition.
The same names keep popping up for Obama's VP choice: Dodd, Sebelius, Bayh, Biden, and Kaine seem to be the consensus favorites. But if we want to think strategically here, can't we throw out the Senators? We will need long standing Senators to shepherd legislation through Congress next year especially now that a 60 vote majority is looking unlikely.
The single man most responsible for the fiscal wreckage that is our budget, other than Bush himself, is up to his old tricks. I'm talking about Max Baucus.
A little bit about the 2001 tax fight before I get to the main point. In the heat of the fight over the massively irresponsible Bush tax cut, Tom Daschle in a much under-reported and under-appreciated speech to the Senate Democratic caucus told his colleagues that the only way to have power with Bush in the White House and Republicans controlling the House and Senate was to hang together and have each others backs. If we stay together, Daschle said, Bush will be forced to come to the table on this and every other bill.
Baucus, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, promptly went out and cut a deal with the Bush White House, giving them virtually everything they wanted. It ended any chance the Democrats had to stop Bush on his most important single policy, and set a pattern for a lack of Democratic solidarity against Bush that continues to this day.
Now Baucus is screwing his fellow Democrats again. The Hill has a new article by Alexander Bolton describing how Baucus is helping Gordon Smith, using Smith's language and giving Smith lots of credit on an Iranian sanctions bill. Smith is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate, and Baucus is delightedly helping him out on a highly questionable bill. That is just pathetic.
Baucus has never been a progressive, spending way too much time sucking up to big corporate interests, as David Sirota has documented many times. But, jeez, Max, at least don't screw over your fellow Democrats politically - again.
Entering tonight's voting, according to my tabulations, Barack Obama held a 357 vote lead in the national popular vote, with a 24,000 vote margin of error.
Add it altogether, and Obama is headed for a victory in the national popular vote. While it remains to be seen if he will move beyond the "margin of error" in my tabulations, I also freely admit that there are numerous other possible tabulations other than my own. For example, Poblano has a popular vote counter with at least 972 possible totals. So, there probably won't ever be a final, consensus total on this matter. Overall, most of the totals favor Obama.
No matter what you think of the popular vote totals, and no matter which popular vote total you subscribe to, I think we can all agree that the nomination process requires significant reform. If you had absolute power over the nomination process, what changes would you make?
New Jersey Senate, 89% reporting
Lautenberg: 62%
Andrews: 32%
Cresitello: 6%
Update 13--Boswell wins IA-03: Leonard Boswell is finally declared the winner in the IA-03 Democratic primary. Looks like he will win by about 20%. While that isn't a total disaster, it also isn't the single-digit loss I was hoping for. He felt pressure, but will it be enough? Either way, progressives need to keep challenging.
Update 12--Wave of Superdelegates Endorses Obama: 26.5 superdelegates just endorsed Obama. He has now passed the magic number, even with Michigan and Florida given full voting rights, and even with her four delegates given back in Michigan. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.
Update 11 [from Matt]: Boswell is up by 12 points, it looks like he'll take it. That's an extremely tight margin for a primary.
Update 10--Obama wins Montana and national popular vote: In one positive development tonight, Barack Obama wins Montana big. The exit poll indicates it will be a huge victory, too: 55.7%--38.2%, according to the gender crosstabs. So, Obama will win the popular vote. Will he reach the 24,000 threshold that moves him outside the margin of error? Hopefully.
Update 9--Clinton doesn't conceede: Well, Clinton clearly didn't conceede in her speech. Hell, before her speech, McAuliffe introduced her as "the next President of hte United States of America." Then, in case the point hadn't been driven home, she said "I'm not deciding anything tonight." A lot of denail happening, but no concession or suspension. Perhaps one would have come if Obama had tried harder in South Dakota, and actually won the state. Then again, considering the way the Clinton campaign has acted for the last three months, probably not.
Update 8--Hey Obama, a 50-state strategy means campaign in all 50 states: I'm actually kind of angry at Obama for not campaigning harder in Montana and South Dakota. He could have won South if he made a bigger play for it. Also, even if he still lost, these are both important states for Democrats. If Obama had made a bigger push in Montana, he could have put the state in play in the general, and helped the local party solidfy its many recent gains downticket. If he campaigned harder in South Dakota, he could have helped build the party for 2010, when we can take down Thune. Pretty friggin' lame that he didn't campaign harder in those two states. Even though he won the nomination tonight, I'm not very happy with him right now. We need to campaign everywhere in order to build the party everywhere. Obama didn't do that in Montana and South Dakota.
Update 7--Clinton wins South Dakota: Hillary Clinton has won South Dakota. It is really, really important for Obama to win Montana now. Winning the nomination on a night of a double loss would be terrible, especially since he has only won Guam, Oregon, and North Carolina since March. If Obama doesn't win Montana by more than Clinton won South Dakota, Clinton can still win the popular vote, too. It would really suck to have a nominee who didn't win the popular vote.
Update 6--McCain at only 65% in South Dakota: Wow--McCain is only at 65% in South Dakota. That is pretty friggin' heinous. He hasn't had an opponent for three months.
Update 5--Exit poll indicates Clinton South Dakota victory: The South Dakota exit poll shows Clinton ahead 53.8%--46.2%, according to the gender crosstabs. Hopefully, Obama will win Montana by more than Clinton wins South Dakota. Not exactly the sort of result I would have hoped for the night Obama clinches.
Updte 4--Lautenberg crushes Andrews in New Jersey Senate primary: Frank Lautenberg comfortably defeats corproate challenger Rob Andrews in the New Jersey Seenate primary. With 17% reporting, Lautenberg leads by a 2-1 margin. Good. This result will now be moved to the bottom, and updates will be infrequent.
Update 3--Explaining my delegate math: Obama now has 360.5 superdelegates according to their last email on Bob Brady (the campaign just hasn't updated its results website yet). Democratic Convention Watch shows Obama at 1749.5 pledged delegates. Exit polls indicate at least exactly 7 delegates for Obama in South Dakota. With a magic number of 2,117 (not 2,118), Obama is now 0.0 delegates from the nomination. Or, at least he will be, when South Dakota polls close.
Update 2--Obama to win Democratic nomination at 9 p.m.: Rep. Bob Brady endroses Barack Obama, putting Obama over the top in my count. Preliminary exit polls from South Dakota indicate Clinton will receive less than 60% of the vote, meaning that Obama will win at least 7 delegates in the state. As such, Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee when South Dakota polls close at 9 p.m..
Update--Obama's Victory Speech? Drudge has supposedly obtained a copy of Obama's victory speech. You can read it here.
Update: Obama receives ten Edwards pledged delegates, and is now only 15 delegates from the nomination. Obama will win the nomination when polls close in Montana tonight at 10 p.m.
The AP reported earlier today that Obama has clinched the nomination. However, a closer look at the piece reveals that the AP was simply reporting what many of us have known for months: Obama has not yet, but will eventually reach the magic number of delegates. This is because the AP is counting private endorsements of Obama, along with a minimum of 14 delegates from tonight's primaries, in their totals.
Since I am something of a minor media figure when it comes to delegate counting, what the AP story revealed to me is that there will be a race among all media outlets to be the first to declare that Obama has reached the magic number of delegates. So, I'll join in the fray myself, using this post as a countdown thread. By my reckoning, Obama has 26.525.015.08.5 9.0 delegates to go.
For this count, I am using the Green Papers pledged delegate count, which has been the most up to date and accurate pledged delegate count during the entire campaign. For the superdelegates, I am using the Obama campaign count. My reasoning is that no one probably has a more up to date count of the superdelegates than the two campaigns themselves, but only the Obama campaign has a publicly available number. For the magic number, I am using Democratic Convention Watch which has been the authoritative source for overall delegate counting this entire campaign season.
Obama reach the magic number tonight at ether 10.01 p.m. when polls close in Montana, or at 9:01 p.m. when polls close in South Dakota. I'll update this thread as more superdelegate endorsements come in, and start live-blogging returns tonight at 8 p.m., eastern.
Several elections tonight. In the Iowa 3rd, we have Bush Dog incumbent Boswell vs. progressive challenger Ed Fallon. In New Jersey, we have Incumbent, machine-bakced, but generally progressive Frank Lautenberg vs. corporate challenger Andrews. And, of course, we have the final presidential primaries in Montana and South Dakota. I will begin live-blogging returns here at Open Left at 8 p.m., when the first polls close in South Dakota and all polls close in New Jersey. All polls close in Montana and South Dakota at 9 p.m. eastern. Polls close in the Iowa 3rd at 10 p.m., eastern.
What Is At Stake Tonight
Momentum. Currently, Barack Obama is precisely tied with John McCain in national polls, and effectively tied with McCain at the state, electoral college level. The ideal scenario for Obama to pick up momentum this week is to win both primaries tonight, reach the magic number tomorrow, and for Clinton to give her "acknowledging reality" speech on Thursday. That would give Obama three consecutive positive days of press coverage, and allow the nomination campaign to end on a positive note for the nominee.
The nightmare scenario for Obama is if he actually loses one of the two primaries tonight. As unlikely as it seems, this is actually possible. Poblano predicts Obama to win South Dakota by only 5%, and ARG predicts Obama to only win Montana by 4%. (Granted, Poblano predicts a Montana blowout while ARG predicts a South Dakota blowout.) Given that the Clinton's have been campaigning in the two states much harder than the Obama's, it is not out of the realm of the possible for Clinton to sneak out a victory tonight. This would be terrible for Obama, since wrapping up the nomination after a loss is exactly the sort of "stumbling across the line" scenario that has hurt Democrats, such as Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter, in the past. So, a double victory for Obama tonight, while not important in terms of winning the nomination, is important in terms of positioning for the general election.
More of what is at stake, along with my personal predictions, tonight in the extended entry.
STATE BLOGS
Just a few short weeks before the election Montana's Republican Party Director has resigned. No, not to spend more time with his family, but instead to take another opportunity in the private sector.