Special comment/rant here, does anyone else find it incredibly annoying that CBS/NYTimes, Marist, SUSA, Quinnipiac, Siena, CNN/Opinion Research, PPP and even Rasmussen will insist on polling the NY-Gov race when I can't get polls on at least 8 different competitive House races in the last week or two, including some within the vicinity of NYS/Connecticut research/polling institutions, like NY-25? This is not just annoying because I like to know the latest news, it's annoying because it's useful to know where to channel resources in the last two weeks of an election.
In the case of races like Mayor Steve Pougnet's race in CA-45, there's no public polling at all (I've only seen private). Yet an average of 4.25 polls per week came out since the week of Sept. 27th on the NY-Gov race, every single one of them showing leads for Cuomo as small as 14 and as large as 37. I just saw one out today showing him up by 20. And this is still important? Even New York State political junkies like me find it overload. It's like some kind of perverse statement on the media's interest in characters like Paladino and conflict.
I mean, I think it's pretty cool to demonstrate that Paladino saying crazy stuff about gays, Sheldon Silver, Andrew Cuomo's prowess, and other sundry topics can transform his deficit of 10 points to into 14 or 37, but here Cuomo is close to breaking the statewide record for percentage of the vote in a gubernatorial race. For crying out loud, let's move on.
It's like some kind of joke. Here's Carl Paladino's much-awaited "major announcement" today:
This is a 3-minute ad buy on TV on three local stations back home in Buffalo.
After picking myself up off the floor, some thoughts:
Someone teach this man to read a teleprompter without looking like a stooge.
Someone teach this man to sit still.
Someone teach this man to say sentences like "I just don't understand" without looking like he's a marionette of his media handler.
What in the world did he announce? Nothing.
I like this "kindler, gentler" Carl- much better than his message of the day being "what tirade shall I unleash on Cuomo/Shelly Silver today"? The non-apology apology for screaming at Fred Dicker and threatening him is funny, too.
That was a creepy zoom-in on his face.
The cut to Naples (she's this Wall Street banker who served a few terms as County Comptroller of Erie County, and narrowly lost the open seat race to Rep. Brian Higgins in 2004 and never got over it) for her to make the money ask is the most hilarious thing. It's like some sort of bizarro political telethon.
The nonsense about Cuomo refusing to debate is demonstrably false. Paladino is actually the only candidate who hasn't responded to the planned Newsday-sponsored debate.
For me, the man continues to be living, breathing, content for an awesome version of one of those famous person's fake Facebook pages. I can see his status updates now: "Hosting a backyard party for my 10-year-old daughter. Taped Silver's face on the pinata, but my daughter kept frggin' missing with the bat I gave her. Hey, you fucking New York Post photographer, no pictures, no pictures!"
With "Tea Party" giving it a thumbs-up like button.
Late last week I wrote a piece about Fox News inspiring the teabaggers. I mentioned Carl Paladino, a wealthy businessman from my hometown of Buffalo, who in the span of weeks, spoke at a big teabagger rally downtown and kicked off his announcement rally for Governor quoting Howard Beale from the film Network "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore!", much to the delight of the teabagger crowd assembled before him. I could go into a long diatribe on Paladino and Western New York, but I'll save it for another post.
Today, Alan and the folks at WNYMedia.net- one of the best local sites for WNY politics- published some of Paladino's more, um, provocative e-mails leaked to the site. They include videos of bestiality; the famous "Obama Inauguration Rehearsal" of African tribesmen dancing that has become popular in white supremacist/Neo-Nazis spaces; images of Obama and his wife dressed in pimp/prostitute costumes; and more. All of them can be found hereThe post, which I viewed this morning, is now overloaded with traffic, and they're working on getting it back up. Also note that many are not safe for work environments. The e-mails have been documented as authentic via contacting other recipients. Paladino's campaign, in a comment to TPM:
Carl Paladino has forwarded close friends hundreds of email messages he received. Many of these emails he received were off color, some were politically incorrect, few represented his own opinion, and almost none of them were worth remembering.
We're not surprised the political establishment feels threatened by Carl's drive the take Albany back for taxpayers. Our campaign won't be wading through the details of what is just another liberal Democrat blog smear. It figures that members of the Party who brought us record taxes, record spending and record debt would want to change the topic from reform to having sex with horses and S&M parlors.
As usual, another Republican who calls himself "the only Republican in the race who agrees 100 percent with conservative values.", including opposition to a woman's right to choose and same-sex marriage equality, tripped up by his own personal life, including revealing last week that he fathered a child out of wedlock. I'm most interested because I'd like to see how the teabagger rank-and-file react.
A few months ago I wrote about the prospect of Spitzer running for office again in NYS. Well, it looks like that may happen:
Eliot Spitzer, who stepped down from the governor's office amid scandal, is now strongly considering a run for state comptroller, sources told The Post.
Spitzer has in recent weeks had discussions with some Democratic donors and insiders about the position currently held by Tom DiNapoli.
DiNapoli, a former assemblyman from Long Island, was appointed comptroller in 2007 after his predecessor, Alan Hevesi, pleaded guilty to using state workers as chauffeurs for his wife.
A Democrat who spoke with Spitzer said, "He's seriously thinking about it."
"He wants to run if he can," said another source. "He's still talking about it."
Gov. Paterson backed the idea.
"The type of way that former Gov. Spitzer managed would be most useful these days in the finance area rather than in law enforcement," Paterson said. "As you can see our biggest problems are - and the current comptroller has handled them very well, warning the Legislature over and over again what's going to happen if we don't act - so those who want to make change I think would be inclined to move in the finance area."
DiNapoli, who was a former Assemblyman appointed to the position by the legislature, is, aside from Paterson (who may not be the nominee), the weak link in the NYS-2010 ticket- even if Cuomo abandons the AG spot to run for Governor. His polling numbers and name ID are still low. And personally, I'm way over Spitzer's scandal, which is now a few years old (and not uncommon in politics, or personal life) and I'm all for him getting back into politics. He is a bar fight primary kind of Democrat, someone who seeks confrontation rather than conciliation first, and in the midst of all this Wall Street mess (his specialty), anyone the Chamber of Commerce declared a "War on Spitzerism" over is someone we could use. He also campaigned on the stump in support of marriage equality when running for Governor in 2006.
The interesting thing is if he took a Jerry Brown-esque approach to get back to the Governor's mansion some years from now. For now, though, he would be a great Comptroller, and I hope he runs.
To follow up on my post re former AG and Gov. Spitzer considering a comeback, the musing and maneuvering has begun. Immediately after The Hill and Danny Hakim at the NYTimes reported he was considering it, Spitzer came out with a full denial Tuesday night, then announced yesterday he was planning on teaching a course on law and public policy at City College of New York. Of course, this doesn't preclude doing a campaign as well, but it does try to bat down the rumors. Meanwhile, Survey USA did a snap poll, finding that 62% of New Yorkers would definitely or consider voting for Spitzer if he ran again for public office. It also found that 41% of voters think Spitzer is more qualified than Paterson to be governor, with 31% going for Paterson and 35% unsure. This follows up on a May poll finding 51% would rather have Spitzer as Governor over Paterson. While Spitzer's numbers do tank against Giuliani (if he runs) in the SUSA poll, and this is all speculation until Cuomo makes up his mind on running for Governor or not, I think there is some positive sign there that he could definitely run for office again and win, perhaps for Comptroller.
I should also mention that the New York State Comptroller is a guy named Thomas DiNapoli, who was most recently a member of the Assembly until chosen by his peers to replace the previous Comptroller over a scandal. An August 24th Siena poll found a whopping 74% had no opinion of DiNapoli, despite taking office in early 2007. To be honest, he's maintained a low profile, and I think can be beaten in a primary. I see that, or running for Attorney General if Cuomo opts to run for Governor, as the most likely possibilities.
The one other thing I did want to address was opinion over respect and forgiveness. After the news came out Tuesday evening on speculation that he might run again, I chatted with my mom and my sister about it. My mom was previously a die-hard Spitzer supporter. I interned in his Buffalo office when he was AG many years ago, and the same office intervened on our behalf when a car dealership tried to screw her out of their warranty obligation when the car was broken. And, as she would say, he's a good Jewish boy.
I was shocked by the flat refusal to support him (at least, in a Dem primary), and it was because of the prostitution issue. To me, I don't care about his personal life to any extent, unless he's using state resources or severely breaking the law, or it's rape. To her, and my sister, cheating on your partner is one thing, but cheating on your partner via prostitution is another. It's supporting an illicit industry, I was told, condoning a lifestyle that shouldn't be condoned, even if it's to support a child. It's taking advantage of women, even if it's consensual. It's interesting to note my mother and my sister are both die-hard feminists and Hillary backers (their reactions to the McCain campaign's targeting of Hillary supporters by picking Palin inspired me to write this piece last year analyzing the effects of it), so perhaps that has something to do with it. Each is entitled to their own opinion, but I am concerned this may by more prevalent than expected, at least among women or a certain demographic of women. It would certainly an important concern in any Spitzer campaign.
President-elect Barack Obama has interviewed primary election rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bill Richardson for secretary of state, according to Democratic officials who revealed his secret meetings with both as he weighed the decision on folding former foes into his new administration. Obama met with Richardson late Friday afternoon, a day after conferring one-on-one with Clinton at his Chicago office, said several Democratic officials.
Richardson has already proven his diplomatic mettle in places like Sudan, North Korea and Iraq. Also, it would be great to have a proponent of No Residual Forces in Iraq so high up on the power ladder. So, should Clinton not accept, I think Richardson would be a very good choice.
As far as Clinton goes, while I'm sure she would do a fine job, and while I'm sure some would disagree, right now I would rather return to the question of whether being Secretary of State would help her chances of becoming President in 2016. Yesterday, I wrote that it would, as long as the Obama administration is popular. In response to my assertion, Nate Silver offers "a qualified no," which I will discuss in the extended entry.
On Tuesday, I wrote a post on having high hopes for David Paterson as the new Governor of New York because, in 2002, along with progressives Eric Schneiderman and Liz Krueger, he helped engineer a take-over of the Democratic caucus in the New York State Senate. A reader writes in to give me more info on what has happened since then:
In your post about David Patterson yesterday, you mentioned how he, along with Krueger and Schneiderman, took over the Minority Caucus from a monumental hack. They did. It was a wonderful moment. Unfortunately, as Democrats were poised to take over the state senate, Schneiderman lost his minority leadership position to a party hack with ties to Greg Meeks. How did this happen? Well Malcom Smith spent the summer of 2006 calling all his colleagues and asking for their support (in other words he began promising State Senators high ranking positions in the caucus if they supported him). Smith peeled two of the more progressive state senators away from Schneiderman and Krueger. Schneiderman, on the other hand, started campaigning after Smith did and, as a result, Smith out manuevered him. Both he and Krueger were thrown off the leadership team. Schneiderman lost staff as well.
In short, the progressives did the heavy lifting and the hacks reaped the rewards.
That is a little depressing, and subdues my hopes for Paterson somewhat. Paterson seems to be someone who tries to keep everyone happy, and in this circumstance it appears to mean that he did not do enough to keep the progressive leadership team in place that he helped install back in 2002. While trying to keep everyone happy is not necessarily a flaw in a politician, it is a flaw in a transformative progressive.
In 2002, however, Mr. Paterson shot to unusual prominence for a Senate Democrat. With two other Manhattan legislators, Eric Schneiderman and Liz Krueger, he staged a coup that ousted the sitting Senate Minority Leader, Martin Connor. The Manhattanites saw Mr. Connor, of Brooklyn, as overly resigned to Republican control of the body. They wanted to fight more actively to retake it.
Ah, so Paterson has been one of the driving forces behind Democratic Senate gains in New York. Also, he seems to have good friends, like Eric Schneiderman, who recently wrote an excellent piece about transforming the liberal checklist for the Nation. (Check out Digby's write up of the piece here.) Those are a couple of whistles about Patterson that ring loud and clear to me that there are reasons to be hopeful that another transformative progressive is taking Spitzer's place.
David A. Paterson (born May 20, 1954) is an American politician and the current Lieutenant Governor of New York. He is the first African American and legally blind person to hold this position. He was selected as running mate by New York Attorney General and Democratic Party nominee Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 New York gubernatorial election.
On a more superficial note, he also has a beard. This may sound stupid, but as a DFH who frequently sports facial hair myself, I am prone to trust male politicians with beards. Maybe he could form a caucus at the DGA with Jon Corzine.
I think there are some real signs here that David Paterson has real potential as the next Governor from New York. That should not be too surprising, since he was chosen by Eliot Spitzer in an election where Spitzer could have chosen really anyone and still won. This is another reason by choosing a reinforcing choice and / or a progressive choice as Vice-President is key for the Democratic presidential nominee this year. Let's just say, hypothetically, that Republicans attempt to tar and feather the next Democratic President with everything they can find. You know, like what they did to Bill Clinton. and let's just say, hypothetically, that the Democratic nominee is not a perfect person. You know, like everyone. As such, doesn't it make a lot of political sense to have someone like David Paterson in reserve, where in the horrifying event that the Vice-President needs to take over, that such a shift does not cause progressive policy moves to be halted? Having a second in line who will continue a progressive project is an unfortunate, but necessary, guarantee against an effective coup d'ete by the Republican Noise Machine. In fact, an overtly progressive choice for Vice-President like Sherrod Brown might even make Republicans think twice about getting rid of the next President. With Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, choosing a progressive as Vice-President could even potentially cause Republicans to back off a little bit (not likely, but also not impossible). A reinforcing and / or progressive second in line is a good guarantee for effective governance in the next Democratic administration.
I have acted in a way that violated the obligations to my family and that violates my - or any - sense of right and wrong. I apologize first, and most importantly, to my family. I apologize to the public, whom I promised better. I do not believe that politics in the long run is about individuals. It is about ideas, the public good and doing what is best for the State of New York. But I have disappointed and failed to live up to the standard that I expect of myself. I must now dedicate some time to regain the trust of my family. I will not be taking questions. Thank you very much. I will report back to you in short order. Thank you very much.
This is a serious blow. I feel as though progressives have lost their top bench contender for President of the Unites States. Spitzer could have run against a Republican in 2012 or 2016. He could have run for an open seat in 2016. He could have even been a possible primary challenger in 2012 if a Democratic President had screwed up and sold us out really badly.
Even though the two actions are not comparable, I feel about the same today as I did back in April of 2005 when Russ Feingold announced that he was getting a second divorce. The progressive bench for possible presidents is pretty darn thin, suffering from the electoral bloodbaths progressives received, both in general elections and in primaries, from 1980-2004. And yes, obviously, when I talk about progressive presidents I mean something different than either Obama or Clinton (or probably Edwards for that matter). Centrist policy positions and faux transformative progressivism dominate even non-DLC Democratic politics these days. Remembering how much days like these hurt reminds us that we need to embrace the few progressive we have, and help incubate a bunch more, in order to one day build a progressive national leader. It takes a long time to build a President.
Among Democrats who have never run for President, who do you see as possible leaders in four, eight, or even twelve years time?
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