Enfranchising America's least represented citizens is as simple as following the law: that's the message Project Vote and a coalition of voting rights groups sent today as they filed lawsuits against Indiana and New Mexico for failing to comply with the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).
This week, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico signed legislation repealing the death penalty, replacing it with life in prison without the possibility of parole. Governor Richardson based his decision on a lack of "confidence in the criminal justice system as it currently operates" and the very real possibility of wrongfully convicting and executing an innocent person. By repealing the death penalty, Governor Richardson's action this week eliminates the risk of New Mexico ever executing an innocent person. Governor Richardson should be commended for taking this action.
The question now is whether Governor Richardson will take the necessary steps to eliminate the causes that lead to wrongful convictions. While I agree that life without parole gives New Mexico the opportunity to correct mistakes when wrongful convictions occur, I am concerned about the very real risk that innocent people will be wrongfully convicted and now sentenced to life without parole in New Mexico.
I commend Governor Richardson for his recognition that New Mexico's criminal justice system is "inherently defective." The Governor recognizes the systemic problems that have led to wrongful convictions in New Mexico stating, "[e]vidence, including DNA evidence, can be manipulated. Prosecutors can still abuse their powers. We cannot ensure competent defense counsel for all defendants." Repealing the death penalty can prevent these systemic problems from leading to the execution of an innocent person. The next step is to prevent these errors from happening and sending an innocent person to prison.
From David Kaib's quick hit we learn the good news that New Mexico's legislature has passed a bill banning capital punishment, which now awaits Governor Bill Richardson's decision to sign or veto.
This is of course a postive step, and I'm hopeful that with his Presidential and Cabinet ambitions most likely doomed, due to his looming legal problems, that Richardson will (perhaps akin to former Illinois Gov. George Ryan) have a change of heart and sign the bill. New Mexico isn't alone, as several other states have death penalty repeals that have some level of legislative action beyond introduction.
However, the unfortunate aspect to this, is that it is all happening as a cost saving measure rather than from any decisive turn against the morality of the death penalty. In fact, capital punishment still polls very strongly in America, much stronger than in most other comparable wealthy democracies. In the 2006 GSS, the death penalty for murder was supported by even a bare majority of self identified liberals. So it's clear death penalty opponents have a lot of work to do to turn this around. Inside, I'm going to try and make a philisophical case against the death penalty. It's not wrong just because it's inefficient or expensive, it is fundamentally unjust and immoral.
Cross-Posted at Project Vote's Voting Matter's Blog Weekly Voting Rights News Update
by Erin Ferns
Election Day Registration has been the subject of election reform debates for decades and the year following one of the most historic presidential elections makes no exception. As lawmakers in at least 16 states hope to expand access to voter registration and effectively increase voter participation, skeptics of such reforms raise the fear of voter fraud. Today, 10 states successfully practice Same-Day Registration (either on Election Day or during an early voting period), with above-average turnout rates and no reported problems with voter fraud. For those states considering EDR, the decision to efficiently expand access to democracy should be clear.
(In confluence with Chris's thesis about the growing demographic Democratic base, here's the latest from Project Vote. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.
In the last two weeks voter registration and early voting has shown that voters are geared up and ready to take part in what has been called a "historical event" on November 4.
Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential Election.
Yes, you read that right. And no, I am not joking.
People will probably say that I am calling the election too early, which could depress turnout. People might say that I am taking too much for granted, which is especially bad for a committeeperson in West Philadelphia. People might say that I am simply being foolish, because there is time left and a lot can change in four days. For these people, I have five quick points (more in the extended entry).
Survey USA is starting to report crosstabs for early voters in many of their recent state polls. In every state where they have such crosstabs, Obama is ahead by shocking margins. First, Georgia:
Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11.
With 18% of the vote in, this crosstab is effectively an "exit poll" showing that Obama is literally winning in Georgia right now. Similarly surprising pro-Obama margins can be seen in several other states, like Iowa:
Among the 14% of Iowa voters who say they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads by a 2:1 margin.
Of the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 18.
None of the other Survey USA polls released this month included early voting subsets. Still, these numbers are enough to indicate that Obama is clearly over-performing among early voters compared to his standing among all voters. This means that the Obama field campaign is obviously superior to McCain's, and that even if McCain tightens the campaign later on, Obama will already have banked a substantial lead. Early voting is also an excellent protection against the voter suppression tactics Republicans regularly employ.
Obama is winning big across the board right now. Best of all, this lead is not just in polls, but in actual votes.
Update: Survey USA also reports that Jim Martin leads by 4% in the Georgia Senate campaign, among early voters.
Update 2: Also, I should note that I share skepticism of those who think this all sounds like 2004, and as such is too good to be true. However, keep in mind that during the early voting phase in 2004, Kerry never actually led Bush. During early voting in 2008, we all know that Obama is well ahead right now. That, combined with a less than effective McCain ground game (Bush's was excellent, McCain's isn't) makes things very different from 2004.
Update 3: It should be noted that these subsets have very high margins of error. However, that Obama is outperforming his overall numbers in every single one of these subsets makes it highly unlikely that this is just "statistical noise." If it were truly random, than the early voting numbers would be pro-McCain in at least one of the five states listed here. Instead, Obama outperforms in all five.
Update 4: If Obama is ahead by 30% in Iowa with 14% reporting, should we already call the state for Obama? I'm tempted.
Ed Tinsley, the GOP's Congressional candidate in NM-02 who's running against Democrat Harry Teague, has been caught in the act again. Tinsley's latest inflammatory remarks -- and what can be perceived as a threat to Barack Obama -- came at a recent candidate forum in Roswell. Tinsley was asked about his views on gun ownership and the Second Amendment. Instead of talking about his or his opponent's positions on the issue, Tinsley launched into a disturbing attack on presidential candidate Barack Obama, as you can see in the video clip above. Ed Tinsley said:
Well, I'll say this, somebody that certainly doesn't get it is Barack Obama when he says that our district clings to our guns and our religion out of frustration. I have a rude awakening for him and we'd love to have him as a guest at our ranch.
Check out Tinsley's demeanor when he says the words "rude awakening." What do you think he has in mind when he says it? What do you think his words are meant to convey?
(Okay, so this post covers a lot of the ongoing horror story of how the media continues to uncritically repeat baseless GOP "voter fraud" claims, but eventually it DOES deliver on the promised morsel of good news from Virginia--hopefully a sign that the tide is starting to turn. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
We spend a lot of time in these news updates showing how charges of voter fraud are used to discredit voter participation efforts and prime the pump for voter suppression efforts, such as the passage of voter ID bills, pushing for proof of citizenship, engaging in draconian voter purge efforts, and imposing sever restrictions on voter registration drives. We have also spent a lot of time carefully delineating the politics behind these efforts, starting with our March 2007 report The Politics Of Voter Fraud and continuing on in these diaries to name but two venues.
Reports and exits polls this entire political season have built a narrative of tremendous, even record-breaking voter participation, pushing us to believe that voter turnout in November will exceed all expectations.
This hasn't been the best week of polling for Obama, as I noted today in both my presidential forecast update and in a look at Obama's apparent lack of a bounce from his overseas trip. However, one very important and very bright spot remains: Obama's firewall states remain untouched.
The 50%+1 Map: Obama 273--265 McCain
This is the bare bones, 50% + 1 map for Obama. It is simply the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. And, as I noted above, Obama's advantage in these states remains untouched by current polling:
In order to win the election, McCain must win at least one of these states. However, McCain has not led in at least six consecutive polls from all of these states. In fact, Obama's lead is large enough in all of these states that there is no statistically valid way to argue that McCain is currently ahead, or even tied, in the electoral college.
This hasn't been the best week of polling. However, as long as the firewall holds, there is no need to panic. It is only when a poll shows McCain ahead in one of these six states that it will be time for real concern.
Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters
Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns and Nathan Henderson-James
Massive voter registration drives, recent passionate immigration debates, and the contested presidential primaries are finally bringing one of the nation's fastest growing populations into the democratic process, despite decades of low voter participation rates and recent voting rights attacks based on anti-immigrant rhetoric. Recognizing their rapidly increasing voting power - which is catching up with their "raw demographic power," particularly in the closely contested states of Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - both presidential candidates are actively pursuing Latino voters. However, advocates caution a powerful lesson must be learned from voter suppression schemes executed in recent elections in order to ensure this former "sleeping giant" of electoral participation will have access to the polls in November, and most importantly, have their votes counted.
As a result of gians made in the 2006 elections, the path to the White House now leads entirely through blue states. If one adds Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico to the states Kerry won in the 2004 election, there is now an easy, non-Ohio, non-Florida path to victory for Democrats. The new, natural governing map now looks like this:
"Easy" Or "Firewall" Map: Obama 273--265 McCain
This is the easy path to victory, and it requires neither Ohio nor Florida. Here are some worthwhile facts about these twenty-two states, plus D.C.:
Democrats control both branches in 20 of the 22 state legislatures: In every state except Michigan and Pennsylvania, Democrats control both branches of the state legislature.
Democrats control a majority of 22 of the 23 congressional delegations (note: some errors follow--update below): If the members of the House and Senate are combined, Democrats control the majority of congressional delegations in every single one of these states except Michigan, where Democrats trail by only an eight to nine margin.
Obama leads in all 23 states: Obama currently leads by 5.5% or more in all 23 jurisdictions, except in Colorado where he leads by 4.0%. I has been more than a month since even a single poll has shown McCain either ahead or tied in any of these states. The last was a poll Michigan, on May 27th. Since hat time, three Michigan polls have shown Obama ahead by 3%, 6%, and 9% respectively.
Democratic dominance in three new states: In Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, Democrats hold the trifecta--both branches of the state legislature and the Governorship. Democrats have picked up four of the fifteen seats in the U.S. House in these three states over the last four years, and are poised to pickup even more this time (NM-01 is a particularly strong pickup). Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado in 2004, and are set to pick up tow more Senate seats this year, with the Udalls poised for a Colorado and New Mexico sweep.
In other words, thanks to large local gains in the 2006 elections, Democrats now completely dominate local politics in enough non-southern states to win the Electoral College. There are now enough "naturally" Democratic states in order to win the White House.
Unlike Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004, Obama does not have to go through Republican states in order to win the Presidency. He doesn't have to win Ohio, and he doesn't have to win Florida. Basically, all he has to do is hold states where, other than Michigan, Democrats have been completely dominant lately. If we lose this election, it will be because we lost at least one blue state, and picked up no red states. As such, we now win unless something abnormal happens. The Presidency is now ours for the taking.
Update: Oh yeah, Republicans still technically control the New York State Senate, for at least another couple of months. I forgot that Bruno's retirement didn't automatically and immediately hand over control. Also, Democrats do control the Michigan State House, while Republicans control the Delaware and Wisconsin State Houses. See it all here. Democrats have two of three (Sate House, State Senate and Governor) in all of the blue states listed above.
New Mexico congressional candidate Bill McCamley (who's running for Steve Pearce's seat), just came up with a very creative idea for taking the rug out from under self-financing candidates, in this case his oil executive primary opponent Harry Teague (who has hardly been a loyal Democrat, donating $1000 to Steve Pearce himself in 2004). Other grassroots challengers should repeat it.
From the AP:
A Democratic candidate for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District has written a $47.50 check to has campaign.
Bill McCamley of Las Cruces staged today's event to contrast his opponent's campaign loans worth $475,000.
When I took a leave of absence from my job in Washington in 2000 to work in the Montana Senate race, I didn't have much clue what I was in for. Growing up on the East Coast, I thought of the Intermountain West as a huge, far-off, mysterious place of square states and cattle herds - and like many people on the coasts, I didn't know much else.
In the years since that first campaign, I have been working in and reporting on the West, telling people what I say in my new nationally syndicated newspaper column today: That this region is the most politically misunderstood place in America.
Senate candidate Marty Chavez is outright loathed by New Mexico Democratic activists, though right now he's the leading candidate for the Democrats in the state. From Roll Call:
Other big names committed to raise money for Chavez are Javier Gonzales, a former Santa Fe County commissioner who is a favorite to replace Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) whenever Udall should choose to vacate his seat; insurance executive and prominent Republican fundraiser Bud Dziak; and Mike Anaya, a former chairman of the New Mexico Democratic Party and the brother of ex-Gov. Toney Anaya (D).
Chavez is the Mayor of Albuquerque, and he's basically a developer's DLC dream, which is why it's completely unsurprising a big name Republican would be part of his fundraising operation. It's just business.
Chavez has problems with corruption and big business, and it's interesting that his fundraising base is not coming from Albuquerque. One commenter on Democracy for New Mexico asserts that Chavez actually falsified the names on his finance committee, putting people there who hadn't agreed to serve. I don't know if that's true, but it wouldn't be out of character.
The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If "Udall for Senate" gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.
It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.
A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.
We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!
Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.
For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.
In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.
In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.
Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District:
* Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points
* loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points
* defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points
* defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points
* and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points.
Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District:
* Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce),
* loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce),
* defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce),
* effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce)
* and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).
Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.
We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.
This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.
Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!
Hi! Many of you may know me from my diaries at Daily Kos, or my one or two diaries from MyDD, or you may even be one of the many dozens of readers of my own blogs, http://liberaltruths... or http://whymyhusbandh.... I also have a third blog http://newmexicansfo.... I try to blog often, but I find as the mother of four small kids my writing can get a little spotty sometimes. But this is me. I am Cara, I am from New Mexico, and I am Liberaltruthsayer, and I am so glad to be here at Open Left!
