In last week’s New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell wrote a fascinating article, "How David Beats Goliath: When Underdogs Break The Rules." In his patented style Gladwell weaves together story after story of underdogs who defied convention to defeat much stronger opponents. From the Biblical story of David defeating Goliath, to a junior league basketball team of twelve year-old girls, to the armies of George Washington, Gladwell offers us examples of how an underdog is only an underdog when he plays by his opponent’s rules. He also offers the research of Ivan Arreguín-Toft, a political scientist who analyzed every war fought over the last two hundred years between strong and weak combatants.
The Goliaths, he found, won in 71.5 percent of the cases. That is a remarkable fact. Arreguín-Toft was analyzing conflicts in which one side was at least ten times as powerful—in terms of armed might and population—as its opponent, and even in those lopsided contests the underdog won almost a third of the time...What happened, Arreguín-Toft wondered, when the underdogs likewise acknowledged their weakness and chose an unconventional strategy? He went back and re-analyzed his data. In those cases, David’s winning percentage went from 28.5 to 63.6. When underdogs choose not to play by Goliath’s rules, they win..."
What an intriguing piece of data. Gladwell’s article got me thinking about the movement to build a clean energy economy and what we can do to turn the tables and put the odds in our favor. By most measures, we face an indomitable opponent. We seek to transition the economy off of fossil fuels, which represent the core business of the largest industry in the history of human civilization. In just the first three months of 2009, these companies spent $79 million lobbying Congress versus $4.6 million by our side--a 16:1 ratio--and a Common Cause study released yesterday shows that members of the critical Energy and Commerce Committee (where the climate and energy bill is currently being watered down) received an average of $107,230 from the energy sector in the last election. 16 to 1. 16 to 1. Those are tough numbers.
I wonder what would happen if we acknowledged our weaknesses and adopted an unconventional strategy. After reading The New Yorker article, I see four principles of a winning underdog strategy that we can apply to the climate movement:
1. Make it a battle of wills, not a battle of skills 2. Empower people to think and act in real time 3. Attack your opponent where they are weak 4. Defy social convention (and be ready to do what is socially horrifying)
Below the fold, I give my take on what some of the implications of these principles are for our movement's strategy.
Happy Monday everyone! I got my iphone, so I'll be writing a review later this week. And Netroots Nation starts on Thursday, if you're coming we'll have an OpenLeft caucus.
David Remnick, the editor of the New Yorker, has an interview discussing the new racist cover about Barack Obama.
Arnold is saying he'd take the post of Energy czar' in an Obama administration. I don't know if that's energy secretary or 19th century murderous Russian autocrat placed in charge of American energy policy.
Hill staff jobs are controlled by private email lists. Not a surprise, I suppose, but still depressing.
Bush will be overridden if he vetoes the Medicare advantage bill that passed last week.
This is a good article about Joe Lieberman in the Senate. If he speaks at the Republican National Convention, he's toast. And he knows it. But he really really wants to be the center of attention.
Greg Sargent takes the article apart and explains the context the New York Times fails to put in there.
Jim Webb doesn't read blogs, thinks they are written by anonymous and irresponsible people, and wishes they wouldn't be so fixed in their positions early on with regards to FISA.
Lobbyists are swarming all over Democratic Chiefs of Staff at special fundraisers.
First, in what can only be viewed as a major blow to newly elected Rep. Don Cazayoux (D), state Rep. Michael Jackson filed as a "no party" candidate for the fall general election.
Cazayoux was already in for a tough race in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district against state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), whom GOP party leaders have united behind, but Jackson's presence in the general election is sure to eat into Cazayoux's base of support.
Cassidy and Cazayoux are both white, and if Jackson were to run, he would be the lone black candidate in a district that is 33 percent black. Jackson is well-known in the district and lost a special election primary runoff to Cazayoux this spring.
STATE BLOGS
