If this were a boxing match, it appears Norm Coleman is on the ropes:
Roll Call reports that we may now be entering a truly crucial phase in the seemingly never-ending saga of the 2008 Minnesota Senate election -- indeed, it might actually be ending fairly soon, if Norm Coleman doesn't have the heart to keep going.
The MN Supreme Court will rule within a week or two.
This is the moment of truth. Either we lay the pressure on thick now and get Coleman to concede when the ruling comes, or he appeals again -- keeping Al Franken out of the Senate for potentially months more.
So Norm made a statement about Obama's Supreme Court appointment, tu wit:
"When debating judges, I was firm that I would use the same standard to evaluate judges under a Democrat President as I would a Republican President. Are they intellectually competent, do they have a record of integrity, and most importantly, are they committed to following the Constitution rather than creating new law and policy. When I am re-elected, I intend to review Judge Sotomayor's record using this process. Certainly, the nomination of a Hispanic woman to the nation's highest court is something all American's should applaud."
Fun news. Yesterday in Minnesota, Norm Coleman thought he was being greeted by supporters outside a local Republican event.
But instead, Coleman came face-to-face with the fact that his insistence on being a sore loser has raised over $90,000 to help progressives defeat Republicans in 2010 -- thanks to the "Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away" campaign the PCCC recently launched with Howard Dean's Democracy for America.
It's all caught on video -- check it out!
And if you haven't already, now's the time to join the "Dollar a Day" campaign -- add to the momentum.
Over at the Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away campaign, Norm Coleman's insistence on being a sore loser has raised over $60,000 to help progressive congressional challengers defeat Republicans in 2010.
And that number gets higher by the hour.
This campaign was launched 2 weeks ago by Howard Dean's Democracy for America and the new Progressive Change Campaign Committee (which I co-founded after leaving MoveOn.org, along with some other great folks).
The goal is to change the incentives for Coleman's DC funders. Before, there was really no downside for those bankrolling Coleman's endless court challenges and denying Al Franken his Senate seat. But as thousands of us sign up to give $1 every day Norm refuses to concede -- to help progressives defeat Republicans -- the equation changes.
There are two things that make this campaign work: scale and buzz.
We've achieved great scale, but I'd like to formally invite anyone who hasn't already signed up to join the cause: NormDollar.com
I'd also like to thank DFA, MoveOn, Darcy Burner, Chris and Natasha at BlogPAC, and countless blogs for sharing news of this campaign with their networks.
Chris and David already expressed why those who call themselves "progressive" over "Democrat" (and even many who call themselves "Democrat") are concerned about Specter potentially getting a free ride with his a party-switch today.
The move also raises the stakes for the resolution of the Minnesota Senate race and may tempt Republicans to drag that fight on further.
Norm Coleman's latest court challenge won't even have paperwork submitted until June, then comes the hearing, then the verdit, then the next appeal.
It's becoming increasingly clear that it'll take a grassroots uprising to make Coleman go away -- and Specter's announcement makes the urgency all the greater. Regardless of whether we want Specter to win re-election in 2010, we now have a bigger opportunity to pass some big ideas in Congress -- if we can seat Franken.
If you haven't already, now's the time to consider joining thousands of others on the "Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away" campaign -- giving $1 each day Coleman refuses to concede to help progressive candidates defeat Republicans in 2010. Together, the grassroots can change the incentives for Coleman's DC funders and dry up the only support that is keeping his ridiculous string of court challenges alive.
Part of smart politics is understanding the audience you're trying to persuade. During election season, the main audience is clearly voters.
What about in recount season?
The Bush 2000 team targeted the refs -- those counting the ballots -- and chose their intimidation tactics accordingly.
This week, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (which I co-founded) and Democracy for America launched a campaign with an audience that Chris Matthews summed up perfectly last night:
They’re asking Democrats for a dollar every day Norm Coleman doesn’t concede the race to Democrat Al Franken. They’re going to use the money to fund progressive challengers in 2010.
That’s right, they want to give the Republicans an incentive to give up that fight in Minnesota.
Exactly! By connecting Coleman's obstinance to a day-by-day building of a warchest to help progressive candidates win, we're moving DC Republicans to a place where they'll want Coleman to concede.
(At the time of the New York Times article Matthews based his comments on, we'd raised $15,000. Now, it's over $27,500 -- nearly doubling our leverage -- and that grows by the hour. You can join the fun by visiting NormDollar.com.)
But who is Norm Coleman targting with his messaging?? From the New York Times:
The fledgling campaign is intended as a way to influence other Republicans to help pressure Mr. Coleman to quit his protracted fight to regain his seat.
In response to the new fund-raising drive, Tom Erickson, a spokesman for Mr. Coleman, returned to an accusation that Mr. Franken owes back taxes and suggested that the proceeds from the dollar campaign might be used to settle that tab.
Really? Stupid, petty, old messaging? Who is the audience??
It's a serious question. The Minnesota Supreme Court? No. Voters in 2014, assuming both a Coleman miracle win now and a Coleman-Franken rematch? Kinda dumb. DC Republicans? Doesn't seem like trumped up tax allegations against Franken will reverse DC insiders' political calculations one bit.
I suppose it's good news for us that the Team Coleman is from the Republican JV league.
That said, if you've had enough of watching these JV players on the field for 5 months after the game was supposed to be over, help cut this game short by adding to the Dollar a Day.
Republican sore loser Norm Coleman's endless and pointless appeals will not accomplish a victory for Coleman. But ol' Normie can be proud that he has accomplished one thing: his name has become synonymous with "sore loser" to the point that "pulling a Norm Coleman" has entered the lexicon meaning "acting like a sore loser." To wit:
Larry King: 'I'm not a sore loser. I'm not gonna pull a Norm Coleman'
Here's evidence that Minnesota's post-election battle for U.S. Senate has permeated pop culture. Al Franken and Norm Coleman were cited this week by contestants in another competition that attracted millions of partisans: the race between movie actor Ashton Kutcher and news juggernaut CNN to be first to gain one million followers on Twitter, the social-media phenomenon. ...
Here's a video clip of Kutcher on "Larry King Live" tonight (King's "Norm Coleman" comment comes at the 5:00 mark):
KING: I'm not a sore loser.
KUTCHER: No, you're not.
KING: I'm not gonna pull a Norm Coleman and take this to the courts.
KUTCHER: You have been gracious, very gracious.
While Coleman sore-losers it up, Democracy for America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee have introduced a new effort: NormDollar.com, "A Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away." Very simply put, commit to contributing just one dollar per day for every day that sore loser Norm Coleman refuses to concede. (HT: MPP)
I don't know if this effort was inspired by Open Left's AdamGreen's post laying out a very similar fundraising strategy a little over a week ago, but it is exactly the correct approach to take to provide Republican leadership in Washington with adequate disincentive from continuing to fund Coleman's endless appeals. You also have the option of chipping in a bit of change directly to the Franken Recount Fund.
Last week, I took a look at the political leanings of the five Minnesota Supreme Court Justices who will decide Republican Norm Coleman's likely appeal. Of one of the five Justices, Justice Christopher J. Dietzen, I suggested that he "has the clearest partisan background" of any of the Justices, pointing to facts including Dietzen serving as a campaign lawyer on Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty's 2002 campaign. Of Dietzen's service on Republican Pawlenty's campaign, I sarcastically noted:
So, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty's campaign lawyer is one of the five judges that will decide Republican Norm Coleman's appeal. Nothing wrong with that.
Clearly, one of the Justices being active in Republican politics is sketchy, but I didn't go so far as to call for Justice Dietzen to recuse himself from any further cases before the state Supreme Court involving Norm Coleman and the Senate seat. Until now.
DownWithTyranny! took my analysis a little further and found out that Justice Dietzen is himself a two-time Norm Coleman donor! A simple search on OpenSecrets.org finds that Justice Dietzen has given to a number of Republican committees and candidates, including:
Contributor Occupation Date Amount Recipient
Chris Dietzen Larkin Hoffman 12/3/01 $250 Coleman, Norm (R)
Chris Dietzen Larkin Hoffman 1/21/04 $250 Coleman, Norm (R)
Remember that two of the Minnesota Supreme Court's seven Justices recused themselves from hearing Coleman's appeal to the state Supreme Court because they served on the state Canvassing Board. Those two Justices wanted to avoid the conflict of having served on the Canvassing Board and then serving on the Court that will hear an appeal of, in part, the Canvassing Board's actions and decisions.
Well, one of the remaining Justices that will decide Norm Coleman's electoral fate is a two-time Norm Coleman donor! Heck, one of the two contributions occurred in the six years leading up to Coleman's 2008 re-election bid - in other words, it was put toward this very election whose result Coleman is preparing to appeal. This is a crystal clear conflict of interest. Justice Dietzen should recuse himself from any Coleman appeals to the state Supreme Court in order to prevent the (rather obvious) appearance of bias. If you feel the same way, you should let Justice Dietzen know by contacting his office at (651) 297-7650, and - very respectfully - urging Justice Dietzen to recuse himself in order to avoid a clear conflict of interest and the appearance of bias by having a previous Norm Coleman donor rule on Norm Coleman's electoral fate.
I know as well as anyone that some emails that you expect to work simply flop. Others that you expect to be par for the course go gangbusters -- inspiring droves of activism. Innovation and creativity are key, so I'll never fault anyone for trying weird, wacky new things -- even if they fail.
With one caveat: Every activist email must have a plausible "theory of change." People should see some concrete theory about why taking action could lead to a desired result.
But some people choose to inflame people's passions just to get their email addresses (and, more likely than not, to fundraise from them -- as opposed to later engaging them in quality activism). This sullys the online activism process for the rest of us.
That's why getting emails like this one from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently was both insulting and maddening:
Dear Adam,
First they counted the votes. Then they recounted them. Then they painstakingly went over every disputed ballot by hand. It was the most thorough and exhaustive recount process Minnesota has ever seen.
It's time to give it up, Norm. President Obama needs Al Franken in the Senate. It's time to concede the race. Click here to add your voice.
First the bipartisan canvassing board declared Al Franken the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota.
But Norm Coleman didn't like that result, so he took it to court. And now when even his own lawyers are predicting he'll lose, Coleman's threatening to keep appealing to more and more courts.
How many more recounts does Norm Coleman want? How many more delays? How much longer will the Republican Party hold Minnesota's Senate seat hostage?
Coleman can end it today and give Minnesota the two Senators it's entitled to. But he's not going to give up unless we convince him to act. So let's speak with one voice and tell Norm Coleman it's time to go.
It then links to a page with a "petition" to Norm Coleman. If you sign, you land on a donate page. If you scroll to the bottom of the email, you also see a donate button -- and a tell-a-friend button, so the DSCC can get your friends' emails.
Nowhere in the entire email is there a theory for why a DSCC petition to Norm Coleman will make any impact.
And, if you think about it, why on earth would Norm Coleman listen to the DSCC? Can you think of a less credible messenger than the DC committee whose sole role is to defeat Senate Republicans like Coleman?
I'm not saying the DSCC has no role to play in getting Coleman to step down. I'm just saying they should play an honest and effective role.
Norm Coleman has had several vote quests struck down by the Minnesota Second District Court, and Al Franken told a conference of Democratic Senators today that he can see a "light at the end of the tunnel." I hope that means Al will be awarded certification on his seat by the Minnesota Court very soon. The Democrats need his vote to fight off the filibuster strength of the Republicans in the Senate.
In order to get a real sense of what's happening, I spent time reading .pdf files at the Minnesota Second District Court web site this afternoon, and, going back a couple of weeks, it's clear that Norm Coleman is following every failed approach with a newer one... what he is doing is stalling and, I expect, it is stalling at the instruction of the Republican National Committee.
Norm Coleman's lawyers tried to stop the counting of hundreds of wrongly rejected absentee ballots and now we know they had good reason: those ballots are breaking for Al Franken who is winning nearly 60 percent of them. With another 15 percent going to "other" that doesn't leave many for Coleman.
So to win, Coleman must get a court to throw out these newly counted ballots and then trim another 50 votes off Franken's total somehow. Good luck with that Norm.
Things are getting heated in Minnesota as officials prepare to count hundreds of wrongly rejected absentee ballots today. This morning there was quite an exchange between Norm Coleman's lawyer and a deputy secretary of state:
At the start of Saturday's meeting, Coleman attorney Tony Trimble asked Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann to cease any counting today.
After about an hour recess to consult the state attorney general's office, Gelbmann returned saying the decision was to "not slow down this process today, get the counting underway."
"We are relying on the oral advice of the attorney general," he added.
Trimble wanted to respond.
"We understand the decision you've made, we–," Trimble said before sharply cut off by Gelbmann.
"Excuse me," Gelbmann said. "I think the candidates have had an opportunity to address this process."
The two men quickly became visibly agitated, with Trimble adding, "This is a public meeting, and I'm going to have my say. And I will have my say."
"Two minutes," Gelbmann said.
"It may be two and half, sir, but I wll have my way," Trimble said sharply.
Gelbmann repeated, "Two minutes."
Trimble then laid out his objection but said they would reluctantly abide by today's process.
You can watch the counting this afternoon at The Uptake.
Senator Norm Coleman's lead over Al Franken is down to less than 10 votes as the Minnesota Canvassing Board dispatches most of the challenges Coleman made during the recount.
After ruling on Coleman challenges until lunch today, the incumbent's advantage steadily dwindled to below 50 by midafternoon and was expected to continue to fall as more of his challenges are addressed today and beyond.
Since then, the lead has shrunk further to 7 votes as of this writing. With hundreds of challenges to go, look for Franken to take the lead, at least on this phases of this protracted process.
This ballot was challenged by Norm Coleman because the voter wrote in 'Flying Spaghetti Monster' for another office. You can find background on Flying Spaghetti Monster here, but it's actually a strong political statement against creationism and not a joke. Coleman's people apparently thought that writing in something that sounded like a joke on any part of the ballot disqualified the vote, so they challenged it. The challenge was rejected, and it's now in Franken's pile.
If Franken wins, I like that this is one of the ballots that will put him over the top.
... You can watch the ballot counting at The Uptake. They rock.
In an hour the Canvassing Board will begin examining ballots that have been challenged by Norm Coleman or Al Franken. But several analyses of the ballots point toward Franken gaining the edge. The latest analysis is also an example of traditional media learning tricks from bloggers: the Star Tribune has been keeping track of users taking their "ballot challenge" and the consensus among readers is that Franken will pull ahead.
This conclusion supports one done by the AP and those of several blog readers, like this one. Of course there is a possibility of bias here; perhaps Franken supporters are more likely to be wasting time doing valuable work examining the ballots. But with AP concurring it seems quite likely Franken will be pulling ahead.The Coleman camp has turned to the courts to preserve their lead and Coleman is also hiring lawyers to prepare a defense against corruption charges.
Some good news for Al Franken: The state canvasing board just voted unanimously to compensate for the loss of those 133 missing ballots in Minneapolis by going back to the recorded Election Night vote totals for this precinct, sparing Al the loss of a net 46 votes.
It looks like a lot of corrupt politicians are heading south with FBI investigations. I wonder whether this has anything to do with radical inequality, an unjust war, and a pathologically unethical political and media class.
Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 231 votes according to the Star Tribune which is 16 more than he started with prior to the recounting. Of course the "real" margin has been almost entirely obscured by the more than 3,600 challenges lodged by the two campaigns. Nevertheless, I am not optimistic because county-by-county results show a clear pattern: the candidate who challenges the most ballots in a county is the candidate who has gained votes in the county. Here are some examples:
County
Who Gained & How Much?
Who Challenged More Ballots?
Aitkin
Coleman by 3
Coleman by 2
Anoka
Franken by 23
Franken by 30
Becker
Coleman by 39
Coleman by 37
Brown
Franken by 4
Franken by 3
Carlton
Coleman by 23
Coleman by 27
Carver
Franken by 8
Franken by 11
Dakota
Franken by 13
Franken by 10
Hennepin
Coleman by 27
Coleman by 34
Meeker
Franken by 43
Franken by 44
Stearns
Franken by 19
Franken by 15
Washington
Coleman by 12
Coleman by 8
There are exceptions to this pattern, mostly counties with a small number of challenges and very small gains or losses. Two other exceptions are Ramsey County where Franken has one more challenge but has gained 34 votes and St. Louis County where Coleman has issued a 100 more challenges but has gained only 57 votes. And Coleman has issued 80 more challenges overall compared to Franken but with 82% of the recount completed that difference alone won't net Franken enough votes.
Nate Silver's models still show Franken pulling ahead, possibly by 100 votes or more. The idea is that Coleman's challenges are negating clear Franken votes while Franken's challenges are more often to ballots ruled void (double votes, scribbles, etc.). But based on the county-by-county patterns it seems optimistic to me. Tell me I'm wrong, please.
