Separating the Midwestern state of Ohio, where soda's called "pop" and workers are sometimes allowed to unionize, from my East Coast home state of Virginia, where a governor perched on a diseased branch of my own family tree gave the nation its first right-to-work-for-less law, is nothing other than the beautiful and brutal mountains of West Virginia. As you climb those mountains headed west two things plummet to the valleys below: the employment rate and the price of housing.
Last week a news story in the Cleveland Plain Dealer reveals that resistance to the American Bar Association's recommended open-file discovery laws are still strong in some jurisdictions. Open-file discovery - or the process in which the prosecution discloses to the defense all relevant information that is known concerning a criminal proceeding, including police reports, witness names, and witness statements - is now being demanded by judges in Cuyohoga County. Ohio does not have an open-file discovery statute.
Recent analyses of the 2008 general election find that overall participation increased on November 4, with a significant surge in voter participation among historically underrepresented Americans. Yet, while some lawmakers have been inspired by the recent voter turnout to propose election reforms that expand access to voting rights, others continue to focus on creating additional barriers to voting.
(In confluence with Chris's thesis about the growing demographic Democratic base, here's the latest from Project Vote. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.
Following one of the most momentous elections in the nation's history, officials and advocates across the country are already turning their attention to the future of American democracy. After a grueling battle over voter registration, voter roll maintenance, and ballot access for the ever growing electorate, leaders and advocates are evaluating what worked this year and considering major administrative and legislative overhauls before coming elections.
In the last two weeks voter registration and early voting has shown that voters are geared up and ready to take part in what has been called a "historical event" on November 4.
(It's "voter fraud" fraud Saturday here at Open Left, and I'm quite pleased to promote this diary from Project Vote, which covers a lot of the key facts, so that I can freely build out from them in some diaries to come. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
Scaling the Mountains and Molehills of the "Voter Registration Fraud" Controversy
Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns and Michael McDunnah
With a constant barrage of allegations against ACORN and other voter registration organizations coming from the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee in recent weeks, it's worthwhile to take a look back at this ongoing war between partisan forces on the right and community based voter registration drives-a war that has largely been fought in the media and nowhere else, and which has threatened to drown out real issues in these crucial weeks before the election.
As you may have seen, the Supreme Court ruled that the Ohio Secretary of State no longer has to match newly-registered voters against other government databases before allowing them to vote. This is a major win for Democrats (who registered the vast bulk of new voters in Ohio this year, thanks to their record-breaking ground game) and for people who care about voting rights. The first one should be obvious, but let me explain the second.
Afraid that they will lose this election, Republicans have turned ACORN into the boogie man. They are making baseless claims that ACORN is perpetuating voter fraud due to its voter registration activities.
In fact, the Republican National Committee's chief lawyer has labeled ACORN a "quasi-criminal organization," and McCain's campaign has launched ads accusing the group of "massive voter fraud" and bullying banks into making risky home loans. McCain's camp is also trying to link Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to ACORN. Last night, McCain said, "ACORN is destroying the fabric of democracy."
As those of you who read my stuff know, I have been haranguing people like a madman in recent weeks that this thing isn't over, that we should never let up, that we should not be cocky or take anything for granted. And I will say down to the last day that anything could happen, that we don't know what the Bradley effect will be on the Presidential level, that we should keep pouring our heart out until the very last hour. But even I am starting to listen for the sounds of the Fat Lady singing. Even I am reaching for the fork to stick in this turkey.
Barring a truly catastrophic last-minute event or mistake, or a Bradley effect on the Presidential level completely beyond the realm of expectation, this thing is done. To those pundits who said this was McCain's best debate, or that he held his own with Obama, I have to ask: what were you smoking during last night's debate? Obama crushed McCain in that debate, adding to the cumulative effect of the two other Presidential debates and the VP debate: the Democrats are calm and steady and talking about the things that matter to the American people; John McCain is, in the words of Democracy Corps focus group participants last night, a "grumpy old man" (must have read my blog post the other day) and "a jerk." Obama won over undecideds and even McCain leaners last night in all the surveys and focus groups that were done, dominated in his responses to McCain's attacks, and dominated in his discussion of the most important issues, especially health care and the economy.
So with this thing moving so much in our direction, here's what I would do if I were running the Obama campaign:
As final preparations for the last presidential debate are made - water glasses weighed and secret memoranda consulted - both candidates have revamped their economic plans for the economic crisis now gripping the country.
McCain was uncertain, at first, about whether to release a revised plan. But even after deciding that certain "economic news and conditions" demanded such action, he seems to have omitted several critical elements from the proposal. No, if you were concerned, he remembered to include a cut in the capital gains tax. And yes, if you're worried he was going soft, he will employ a surge strategy to prevent foreclosures.
Survey USA is starting to report crosstabs for early voters in many of their recent state polls. In every state where they have such crosstabs, Obama is ahead by shocking margins. First, Georgia:
Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11.
With 18% of the vote in, this crosstab is effectively an "exit poll" showing that Obama is literally winning in Georgia right now. Similarly surprising pro-Obama margins can be seen in several other states, like Iowa:
Among the 14% of Iowa voters who say they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads by a 2:1 margin.
Of the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 18.
None of the other Survey USA polls released this month included early voting subsets. Still, these numbers are enough to indicate that Obama is clearly over-performing among early voters compared to his standing among all voters. This means that the Obama field campaign is obviously superior to McCain's, and that even if McCain tightens the campaign later on, Obama will already have banked a substantial lead. Early voting is also an excellent protection against the voter suppression tactics Republicans regularly employ.
Obama is winning big across the board right now. Best of all, this lead is not just in polls, but in actual votes.
Update: Survey USA also reports that Jim Martin leads by 4% in the Georgia Senate campaign, among early voters.
Update 2: Also, I should note that I share skepticism of those who think this all sounds like 2004, and as such is too good to be true. However, keep in mind that during the early voting phase in 2004, Kerry never actually led Bush. During early voting in 2008, we all know that Obama is well ahead right now. That, combined with a less than effective McCain ground game (Bush's was excellent, McCain's isn't) makes things very different from 2004.
Update 3: It should be noted that these subsets have very high margins of error. However, that Obama is outperforming his overall numbers in every single one of these subsets makes it highly unlikely that this is just "statistical noise." If it were truly random, than the early voting numbers would be pro-McCain in at least one of the five states listed here. Instead, Obama outperforms in all five.
Update 4: If Obama is ahead by 30% in Iowa with 14% reporting, should we already call the state for Obama? I'm tempted.
Keeping track of all the recent Conservative attacks on poor people and their "lobby" (ACORN) is getting to be a bit of a task.
The latest "outrage du jour" involves these (oh so obviously fake) voter registration forms that a few idiots (?) decided to turn in.
A few things to consider here.....
As history has shown, there is a difference between submitting a voter registration application and finding your name on the rolls when you go to vote. With registration coming to a close, Project Vote is conducting emergency efforts to ensure that no one who wants to vote is left out on Election Day.
Project Vote's Registration Repair Program is an intensive and urgent effort to collect and rectify large numbers of registrations that have been rejected by boards of election. We have been working all over the country to obtain disqualified applications and to contact would-be voters to repair applications with missing or erroneous information.
And it's crucial that we get this ad on the air right now, because voters - particularly persuadable voters - just started voting yesterday in Ohio.
The ad is tough, aggressive, and hard-hitting against the GOP's failed economic policies. But we need your help to get it on the air by Friday.
This ad highlights the report released by the Ohio Democratic Party on Monday, Ohio's Eight Years of Economic Pain. You can download the full report at www.ohiodems.org/economicpain
1,087 Ohio Companies Shut Down or Had Mass Layoffs under George W. Bush, Costing More than 180,000 Ohio Jobs
83 of Ohio's 88 Counties Hit by At Least One Shutdown/Layoff
Since 2001, 1,087 factories and companies in Ohio have shut down or had mass layoffs due to the failed Republican policies in Washington - an average of one shutdown or mass layoff in Ohio every 2.5 days, a new report revealed today. Read the report at www.ohiodems.org/economicpain.
These 1,087 shutdowns/layoffs cost 180,264 Ohioans their jobs - an average of 61 jobs lost each day for eight straight years. Many of these jobs were shipped from Ohio to China, Mexico, India, and other low-wage countries.
Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that's right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we'd like to talk about the state of the races in America's Heartland.
We recently wrote about the Department of Veterans Affairs decision to open its facilities to voter registration drives after months of urging by voting rights groups and elected officials. This week, however, "VA voter suppression continues," as AlterNet's Steven Rosenfeld wrote Tuesday, with voter registration efforts being blocked in California and the VA general counsel criticizing the pending Veterans Voting Support Act (S. 3308), which would bolster federal protection of voter registration opportunities for all wounded veterans. With just three weeks left to register voters in most states, advocates say now is the time to support voter registration efforts in VA facilities and, most importantly, it needs to be explicitly protected from now on through federal law.
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to knock any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
