On Tuesday night Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district held a special election, pitting Democratic candidate Mark Critz against Republican Tim Burns.
Mr. Critz won solidly: a nine percent margin of victory off 53.4% of the vote. Severalpolls had predicted a very close, photo-finish election; this result contradicted that assumption.
This victory constitutes good - very good - news for Democrats.
It is raining today here in Philadelphia. Doubtful Specter will get the turnout he needs. The 15-day average is used in this election because of dramatic recent trends, and the high volume of polling on the campaign.
If no candidate reaches 50%, there will be a June 8th run-off. That's the goal today. On the Republican side, John Boozman could well reach the 50% threshold. He is polling at 46%, with 15% undecided.
While I don't feel quite as good about using the snarky blue-red coloring on this campaign, there it is anyway. On the Republican side, Rand Paul leads by 16.3%.
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Polls in Kentucky start closing at 6 pm, and completely close at 7 pm. In Pennsylvania, polls close at 8 pm. In Arkansas, polls close at 8:30 pm. All times listed here are eastern.
Got any last minute predictions? The polls suggest Sestak, Critz, Lincoln (just over 50%, that is) and Mongiardo all win squeakers. However, primary polling and House polling really does not have a very good track record, so it's all up in the air.
(Note: While Lincoln leads, if neither no candidate reach 50%+1, there will be a June 8th runoff. With a third candidate close to 10%, that is very possible)
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Congressman John P. Murtha (PA-12) passed away peacefully this afternoon at 1:18 p.m. at Virginia Hospital Center in Arlington, VA. At his bedside was his family.
Murtha, 77, was Chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense.
First elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in February of 1974, Murtha dedicated his life to serving his country both in the military and in the halls of Congress. A former Marine, he became the first Vietnam War combat Veteran elected to the U.S. Congress.
This past Saturday, February 6, 2010, Murtha became Pennsylvania's longest serving Member of Congress.
Murtha will probably be best remembered for speaking out against the Iraq war in late 2005, and calling for American troop withdrawal. Doing so rocketed him into the national spotlight, made him a top campaign surrogate for Democrats running for Congress in 2006. Murtha was a major factor in galvanizing Democratic support for troop withdrawal (withdrawal which continues apace), and even resulted in a Pelosi-backed run at becoming Majority Leader in November 2006 after Democrats took control of the House. Steny Hoyer eventually won that position.
Murtha's district is the Pennsylvania 12th, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Republican +1. The special election to fill his seat will likely take place on May 18th, the date of the Pennsylvania primary. Republicans will likely be favored to take the seat, given the current political climate.
Apologies to those who are offended by an analysis of the political ramifications of his death. Such concerns do seem crass at a time like this, but we still need to consider them.
After calling some of his constituents racist, Jack Murtha is only four points ahead of his opponent William Russell (with other Republican internal polls I don't particularly trust showing Murtha down significantly).
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