A Chris Bowers Golden Oldie
From Fri Mar 07, 2008. Original HERE.
Back in 1988, I became obsessed with a compute game called President Elect 1988, which was an early PC game that simulated a variety of historical and ahistorical presidential elections. One of the lessons I learned from the game is that it was a lot easier for Democrats to win if they nominated a southerner, and especially if another southerner was also on the ballot as vice-president. As such, four years later, when I was barely old enough to vote in the Democratic primary in New York, I liked Jerry Brown (despite his horrendous sales tax proposal) but also didn't mind if Bill Clinton won, because I figured Clinton could win some southern states and take the general election. When Clinton chose Al Gore as his running mate, I was pretty happy, since my lesson from playing hundreds of games of President Elect was that there was pretty much no way such a ticket could lose during an economic downturn.
That was all well and good, and it worked well for its time. The civil rights backlash had fractured the New Deal coalition, and white, socially conservative, working class and middle class voters were turning to Republicans in droves. The vast majority of these voters lived in the south, which had once been a solid Democratic region and gave Democrats a nearly unbreakable partisan hold on power in Washington, D.C. The so-called "Republican Revolution" of the time was basically flipping conservative southern whites. These were the so-called "Reagan Democrats" who Dems became obsessed with winning back after the Mondale general election fiasco. While Clinton used them to win in 1992, in 1994, Republicans flipped these voters for good, and took control of Congress. Now, this is a group of voters that chooses Republicans in general elections by margins of more than 2-1.
While this treads into "votes that don't matter" territory, the truth is that after watching politics for more than twenty years, at this point trying to win back those "Reagan Democrats" feels like a lost cause. I've had enough of it. I'm tired of how trying to appeal to these voters basically never seems to work, but always succeeds in pushing the Democratic Party to the right. I'm tired of how it has created a perception in the Democratic Party that the progressive base don't matter, except as an ATM machine. And I'm tired of it because it has just gone on for so long at this point that we now have massive, emerging Democratic voting blocks that we should appeal to instead: non-Christian whites, the "creative class," and Latinos / Asians. While the once-Democratic and now Republican "Reagan" Dems are growing pretty darn old, the future of the country and the electorate can be found elsewhere. Why continue to chase after voting groups that are shrinking in size, that push the party to the right, and who we never seem to win anyway, when instead we can chase after far more fertile voting blocks that will push the party to the left and who represent more than 100% of the population growth in the United States?
One of the reasons is that Reagan Dems are still voting, and still on the brink of swinging not only the 2008 general election, but also the 2008 primary for the same stupid, racist reasons that they put Republicans in power back in the last quarter of the 20th century . Consider the following chart from Brendan Nyahn:
The 2008 elections are still not quite over. Here is the latest news on where things stand in the federal elections (Senate, President and House):
Senate The current partisan balance of the Senate for the 111th Congress is 55 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats) and 2 undecided (Illinois, where there might be a special election and there might not be one, and Minnesota, currently undergoing a recount). Remarkably, in the Minnesota campaign, Democrat Al Franken is now likely to win. The Minnesota Secretary of State currently puts Coleman's margin at 188 votes, while the Star-Tribune puts it at 192 votes. Starting tomorrow, the state canvassing board will look at the 1,640 remaining challenged ballots. An AP analysis shows that when those challenges are resolved, Franken is likely to gain between 200-350 votes on Coleman, thus handing him victory (more in the extended entry):
OK, this is a thread for being really, really greedy in the--yes, still ongoing--2008 election. The big news is that McCain has dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Woo-hoo!
I had been waiting for this, but as vote totals continue to trickle in, McCain has now dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Right now, Obama stands at 52.7149%, and McCain is at 45.9857%, for a margin of 6.73%. The best part is that McCain is now below 46.00%, and could still, quite realistically, fall to 45.9% in counts that round to the nearest tenth of a percent. I'm still hoping for the overall margin can reach 7.00%, although there are now very few votes still uncounted and / or left to recount. Obama's raw vote margin is currently 8,538,623. Another neat goal would be 9,000,000, although that is even more unlikely than 7.00%.
On a less hopeful note, it is highly likely that Missouri's eleven electoral votes will go to John McCain, making the final electoral count Obama 365-173 McCain instead of Obama 376-162 McCain. McCain currently leads "The Show Me State" by 4,716 votes, with about 6,300 provisional ballots yet to be counted. As such, in order to win the state, Obama will need to secure about 87.5% of the provisional ballots. The reason the networks have not called the state, despite this deficit, is that Obama will gain some votes, and will also have the right to a recount if it so desires. However, given that asking for such a recount might appear a bit petty after he already won a solid national victory, it is unlikely that there will be a fight over Missouri's electoral votes.
A blogger like me can afford to be greedy about the 2008 election. Barack Obama, however, can't spend his political capital in that way. Oh well.
These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.
The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry.
On November 4th and 5th, Democracy Corps conducted a post-election poll that, among other things, looked at the reasons why voters supported and opposed Barack Obama and John McCain. The results offer real insight into the why Obama won, and also into just how deep a hole Republicans have dug for themselves.
Beyond even the anti-Republican political environment, in an election when McCain was forced to try and win voters who do not traditionally support Republicans, McCain found himself trapped by an activist base that both demands social conservatism and which has failed to elected a significant number of women and minorities to statewide and other leadership positions. The net result was that, in his necessary attempt to appeal to voters who usually do not support Republicans, McCain was practically forced to pick Sarah Palin. However, she ended up undermining his most effective campaign messaging--"experience vs. inexpereince"--presented Obama with a free line of attack, and overall became a net drag on the Republican ticket.
With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry.
Where did Obama gain the most relevant to Kerry four years ago? I've seen dozens of theories floating about. but no systematic analysis. Usually, the theories floated are connected to the organization of the person doing the floating. For example, a member of a youth vote coalition will attribute Obama's victory to young voters, a spokesperson for a Lainto coalition will say it was Latino voters, a spokesperson for a women's organization will say it was single women, etc.
In order to try and provide more than just speculation and organizational trumpeting, in the extended entry I provide a table that shows Obama's shift from 2004 across every major demographic. Check it out.
The 2006 and 2008 national exit polls show an overall pro-Democratic margin within 1% of each other. However, they reach this margin in very different ways. Specifically, Obama heavily under-performed 2006 Democrats among white voters, losing that group by 12% compared to only a 4% Democratic defeat two years ago. However, he won the campaign anyway, and did so with a margin nearly identical to 2006.
How did he do so? In the extended entry, I discuss the long awaited rise to power of the pluralist coalition.
In the extended entry, I take a quick look at where the campaigns for President, Senate and House currently stand. Lots of counting, and recounting, to be done.
National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Missouri
99%
49%
50%
11
NE-02
100%
49%
50%
1
Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.
Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).
Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.
Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.
The networks will all officially call the election at 11 p.m. So, consider this an media official victory thread.
Also, I am going to bump the House Forecast above all others. So, consider this an open thread for the Georgia and Minnesota Senate race as well.
Update: With 40% reporting, Franken and Coleman are tied at 40%.
Also, its bedlam in West Philly. Horns honking everywhere. People on the street hugging each other. It feels sublime, and I don't use that word lightly.
National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Indiana
97%
50%
49%
11
Missouri
86%
48%
50%
11
Montana
34%
51%
46%
3
Update 6: Pile it on: Obama on the way to Indiana, Montana and possibly more landslide. I haven't got any states wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind on Indiana, Missouri, Montana or North Carolina.
Update 5: Obama wins Virginia: Obama takes the lead in Virginia, and Virginia expert Not Larry Sabato calls the state. Good enough for me. Indiana is next.
Update 4: Obama wins Colorado: Obama hits 293, passes, Bush's EV best. Florida and Virginia soon...
Update 3: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY: As per the update above, Obama wins Ohio and, therefore, the Presidency. Further, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and maybe even Indiana and North Carolina to become blue.
Update 1: McCain wins North Dakota: Darn. Didn't think it would happen. On the plus side, South Dakota and Louisiana is too close to call. In fact, so is NE-02.
Update 4: Cities tend to report late: Remember, outside of Pennsylvania, cities tend to report last. So, even though Obama is trailing in some of these early returns, his big precincts haven't come in yet.
Update 3: North Carolina exit poll: Obama leading in the North Carolina exit poll 51.4%-47.6% according to the gender crosstabs. All of these exit poll estimates are according to the exit polls crosstabs, btw.
Update 2: Some exit polls: Exit polls for Georgia (McCain winning by 2%), Indiana (Obama winning by 6%), and Virginia (Obama winning by 9%).
Update 1: On The Early Calls: As I wrote earlier today, twice, I am calling all states that were more than 10% in the polls before the election. No state polling will be wrong by that much. It ain't gonna happen. I stand by my early calls. It starts 243-132.
STATE BLOGS
