The 2008 elections are still not quite over. Here is the latest news on where things stand in the federal elections (Senate, President and House):
Senate The current partisan balance of the Senate for the 111th Congress is 55 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats) and 2 undecided (Illinois, where there might be a special election and there might not be one, and Minnesota, currently undergoing a recount). Remarkably, in the Minnesota campaign, Democrat Al Franken is now likely to win. The Minnesota Secretary of State currently puts Coleman's margin at 188 votes, while the Star-Tribune puts it at 192 votes. Starting tomorrow, the state canvassing board will look at the 1,640 remaining challenged ballots. An AP analysis shows that when those challenges are resolved, Franken is likely to gain between 200-350 votes on Coleman, thus handing him victory (more in the extended entry):
OK, this is a thread for being really, really greedy in the--yes, still ongoing--2008 election. The big news is that McCain has dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Woo-hoo!
I had been waiting for this, but as vote totals continue to trickle in, McCain has now dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Right now, Obama stands at 52.7149%, and McCain is at 45.9857%, for a margin of 6.73%. The best part is that McCain is now below 46.00%, and could still, quite realistically, fall to 45.9% in counts that round to the nearest tenth of a percent. I'm still hoping for the overall margin can reach 7.00%, although there are now very few votes still uncounted and / or left to recount. Obama's raw vote margin is currently 8,538,623. Another neat goal would be 9,000,000, although that is even more unlikely than 7.00%.
On a less hopeful note, it is highly likely that Missouri's eleven electoral votes will go to John McCain, making the final electoral count Obama 365-173 McCain instead of Obama 376-162 McCain. McCain currently leads "The Show Me State" by 4,716 votes, with about 6,300 provisional ballots yet to be counted. As such, in order to win the state, Obama will need to secure about 87.5% of the provisional ballots. The reason the networks have not called the state, despite this deficit, is that Obama will gain some votes, and will also have the right to a recount if it so desires. However, given that asking for such a recount might appear a bit petty after he already won a solid national victory, it is unlikely that there will be a fight over Missouri's electoral votes.
A blogger like me can afford to be greedy about the 2008 election. Barack Obama, however, can't spend his political capital in that way. Oh well.
These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.
The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry.
On November 4th and 5th, Democracy Corps conducted a post-election poll that, among other things, looked at the reasons why voters supported and opposed Barack Obama and John McCain. The results offer real insight into the why Obama won, and also into just how deep a hole Republicans have dug for themselves.
Beyond even the anti-Republican political environment, in an election when McCain was forced to try and win voters who do not traditionally support Republicans, McCain found himself trapped by an activist base that both demands social conservatism and which has failed to elected a significant number of women and minorities to statewide and other leadership positions. The net result was that, in his necessary attempt to appeal to voters who usually do not support Republicans, McCain was practically forced to pick Sarah Palin. However, she ended up undermining his most effective campaign messaging--"experience vs. inexpereince"--presented Obama with a free line of attack, and overall became a net drag on the Republican ticket.
With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry.
Where did Obama gain the most relevant to Kerry four years ago? I've seen dozens of theories floating about. but no systematic analysis. Usually, the theories floated are connected to the organization of the person doing the floating. For example, a member of a youth vote coalition will attribute Obama's victory to young voters, a spokesperson for a Lainto coalition will say it was Latino voters, a spokesperson for a women's organization will say it was single women, etc.
In order to try and provide more than just speculation and organizational trumpeting, in the extended entry I provide a table that shows Obama's shift from 2004 across every major demographic. Check it out.
The 2006 and 2008 national exit polls show an overall pro-Democratic margin within 1% of each other. However, they reach this margin in very different ways. Specifically, Obama heavily under-performed 2006 Democrats among white voters, losing that group by 12% compared to only a 4% Democratic defeat two years ago. However, he won the campaign anyway, and did so with a margin nearly identical to 2006.
How did he do so? In the extended entry, I discuss the long awaited rise to power of the pluralist coalition.
In the extended entry, I take a quick look at where the campaigns for President, Senate and House currently stand. Lots of counting, and recounting, to be done.
National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Missouri
99%
49%
50%
11
NE-02
100%
49%
50%
1
Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.
Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).
Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.
Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.
The networks will all officially call the election at 11 p.m. So, consider this an media official victory thread.
Also, I am going to bump the House Forecast above all others. So, consider this an open thread for the Georgia and Minnesota Senate race as well.
Update: With 40% reporting, Franken and Coleman are tied at 40%.
Also, its bedlam in West Philly. Horns honking everywhere. People on the street hugging each other. It feels sublime, and I don't use that word lightly.
National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Indiana
97%
50%
49%
11
Missouri
86%
48%
50%
11
Montana
34%
51%
46%
3
Update 6: Pile it on: Obama on the way to Indiana, Montana and possibly more landslide. I haven't got any states wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind on Indiana, Missouri, Montana or North Carolina.
Update 5: Obama wins Virginia: Obama takes the lead in Virginia, and Virginia expert Not Larry Sabato calls the state. Good enough for me. Indiana is next.
Update 4: Obama wins Colorado: Obama hits 293, passes, Bush's EV best. Florida and Virginia soon...
Update 3: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY: As per the update above, Obama wins Ohio and, therefore, the Presidency. Further, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and maybe even Indiana and North Carolina to become blue.
Update 1: McCain wins North Dakota: Darn. Didn't think it would happen. On the plus side, South Dakota and Louisiana is too close to call. In fact, so is NE-02.
Update 4: Cities tend to report late: Remember, outside of Pennsylvania, cities tend to report last. So, even though Obama is trailing in some of these early returns, his big precincts haven't come in yet.
Update 3: North Carolina exit poll: Obama leading in the North Carolina exit poll 51.4%-47.6% according to the gender crosstabs. All of these exit poll estimates are according to the exit polls crosstabs, btw.
Update 2: Some exit polls: Exit polls for Georgia (McCain winning by 2%), Indiana (Obama winning by 6%), and Virginia (Obama winning by 9%).
Update 1: On The Early Calls: As I wrote earlier today, twice, I am calling all states that were more than 10% in the polls before the election. No state polling will be wrong by that much. It ain't gonna happen. I stand by my early calls. It starts 243-132.
President Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain
You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the Pollster.com national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.
Senate
Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.
House Best Guess: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
Guess Range: 21-27
Read the entire final forecast here
Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?
Missouri: Pollster.com and TPM have Obama narrowly ahead, while the 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left and RCP have McCain narrowly ahead.
North Carolina: RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Pollster.com and Open Left have Obama narrowly ahead. Update: Pollster.com and Open Left both now have Obama and McCain exactly tied in North Carolina.
North Dakota: Pollster.com has Obama narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left, RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead.
Other than these three states, we have a consensus. Unless new polls come in and change the current picture, I will forecast Obama 353-185 McCain, with North Carolina barely going toward Obama but both Missouri and North Dakota barely going to McCain. Missouri and North Carolina are almost impossibly close at this point, so I think simple guessing will win out, rather than statistical insight of any kind.
It isn't just me. There is wide consensus that Obama is poised for a comfortable victory.
Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.
Four close states for McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Montana are projected for McCain, even though there is still a small chance for Obama to win one or more of those four states.
This projection comes from looking at the simple mean of polling conducted during the final week of the campaign. I stand by this methodology despite it's simplicity, and even to a certain extent because of it's simplicity. I have come to believe that forecasting close (within single digits), statewide, general elections accurately is not the sole province of statistical wizards and those who wish to argue with polls. Instead, I believe it is something anyone can do as long as they have an Internet connection, and are willing to not argue with the polls they don't like. As long as you have the courage to look at all of the recent polls and avoid adding any special sauce of your own, then you can project close (within single digits), statewide, general elections as accurately as any "professional" forecaster around.
On November 5th, we will know if I am correct. However, if I turn out to be wrong, and Obama scores a larger than expected victory of around 400 electoral votes, the reason will be due to cell-phone only households. Within the last twenty-four hours, both fivethirtyeight.com and Pollster.com have released studies indicating that Obama leads by about 4% more in polls that include cell-phone only households, than he does in polls that do not. A shift of that magnitude has the potential not only to push all three of the toss-up states to Obama, but also all four of the narrow McCain states. This could give Obama up to 406 electoral votes, and a national popular vote victory of 9-10%.
Now, I'm sticking with the "use all polls" and "don't argue with polls" philosophy, and instead projecting Obama to win by around 7% nationally and to pull in between 340-360 electoral votes. With only one day left, I will not abandon my old mantra, "the truth is always in between." However, this cell-phone only discrepancy should still give hope to those of you working in those four "Lean McCain" states. Keep in mind that there could also be a discrepancy in the other direction due to a lingering "Bradley effect," that might push Obama's victory down to around 5% or so, and which could still tip Florida and / or Ohio toward McCain. There is no circumstance I can forsee where Obama drops below 291 electoral votes, meaning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.
I am forecasting 7% and 340-360, but I can see reasonable people pegging the range anywhere from 4% to 10%, with electoral votes ranging from 291-406 (or even 407, with Nebraska-02). What is your final prediction? Let's lay it on the line in the comments.
Update 3:00 p.m.: New Rasmussen swing state polls added. New Strategic Vision Pennsylvania added. New PPP Missouri added. Links can be found in quick hits.
Update 6:00 p.m.: Survey USA North Carolina, along with PPP Indiana and Nevada.
Update 8:00 p.m.: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia and Ohio included.
Update 9:00 p.m.: New Florida, Georgia, Maine and Washington polls added.
Update 1:00 a.m.: New Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia polls added.
Update 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: Final update completed. North Carolina flips to McCain.
Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02 States not shown are further either direction
Dark Blue (252): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (60): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/26-11/01 States not shown are further either direction
