Open Left - President 2008

Still Counting and Recounting, December 15th

Chris Bowers — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:43:21 GMT

The 2008 elections are still not quite over. Here is the latest news on where things stand in the federal elections (Senate, President and House):

Senate
The current partisan balance of the Senate for the 111th Congress is 55 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats) and 2 undecided (Illinois, where there might be a special election and there might not be one, and Minnesota, currently undergoing a recount). Remarkably, in the Minnesota campaign, Democrat Al Franken is now likely to win. The Minnesota Secretary of State currently puts Coleman's margin at 188 votes, while the Star-Tribune puts it at 192 votes. Starting tomorrow, the state canvassing board will look at the 1,640 remaining challenged ballots. An AP analysis shows that when those challenges are resolved, Franken is likely to gain between 200-350 votes on Coleman, thus handing him victory (more in the extended entry):

While the ultimate calls rest with the five-member Canvassing Board, the AP found that most of the ballots have clear intent and no deficiencies for which they would be disqualified under Minnesota law.

The AP's examination of the remaining challenges found:

--Fewer than half of the challenges left-about 1,640-are in genuine doubt. Still, that's eight times more than the current margin between the two men.

---In ballots that could easily be assigned, Franken netted 200 more votes than Coleman. But that number was essentially meaningless because Coleman has withdrawn significantly fewer challenges than Franken-that is, the pool of challenges that can be awarded to Franken at this stage is notably larger.
--Nearly 300 challenges wouldn't benefit either man because the voter clearly favored a third-party candidate or skipped the race.
--Of the challenges that can't be reliably awarded to either candidate now, more than 400 possible Franken votes are being held up because on grounds that those voters identified their ballots through write-ins, initials, signatures, phone numbers or some other distinctive marking. At least 300 possible Coleman votes are in limbo for the same reasons.
--The next biggest class of ballot that can't easily be awarded falls in the category of unclear voter intent. Nearly 600 involve cases where a voter filled in two ovals but crossed out one, put an X above or below their darkened oval or put differently sized partial marks in more than one. There are slightly more potential Franken ballots in that pile as well.

So, Franken will almost certainly take the lead after this phase of the recount. After this phase, all that is left are 1,600 absentee ballots that have yet to be counted, and which project to another Franken gain of 128 votes. While Norm Coleman is challenging these ballots in court, two Republican members of the Supreme Court were part of the unanimous canvassing board ruling to include these ballots. So, good luck with that lawsuit, Norm.

Add it all up, and Franken seems like the next Senator from Minnesota. There does not appear to be anything Coleman can do to stop that now. Franken is going to win this thing.

President
Wikipedia shows Obama's lead at 52.93%-45.67%, with 131,200,378 votes counted. With all states having either "final" or "certified" vote totals, the United States Election Project shows a total turnout of 131,237,136. So, while we are still dealing with a discrepancy of up to 36,758 votes, the two sources, which I take the definitive counts, have nearly merged. The final likely vote percentages will likely be 52.93%-45.67%, although changes of .01% could still take place. These totals do not include "spoiled" ballots.

Also, the Electoral College vote is today. While it is likely that the final total will be 365-173, usually at least one elector either makes a mistake or casts a protest vote. This occurred in both 2000 and 2004, for example. It is embarrassing that we still use this system.

House
All House elections from November 4th (or December 6th, in Louisiana) are now decided. Democrats led 257-178 after these elections, and also scored the largest popular vote victory (8.88%, according to an older count) in any congressional election since 1982. However, Obama's administration appointments have already led to at least a vacancy in Rahm Emanuel's seat (IL-05, PVI D+18). Xavier Bacerra (CA-31, PVI D+30) would be another vacany should be become trade representative. More vacancies may yet appear, most prominently as a result of the pending Secretary of the Interior pick. Also, each party seems to have a vacant seat, as House roll call votes 684-689 all show a partisan balance of 235-198. The results of the 2006 election and 2007-2008 special elections put the balance at 236-199.

So, the partisan breakdown of the House will probably be 257-178, although there are still some special elections to be had, and the House will open with some vacancies. Later in the year, the D.C. Voting Rights Act will almost certainly pass into law, thereby temporarily moving the partisan breakdown to 258-179 as both D.C. and Utah gain another member of the House.

****

This will probably be my final "still counting and recounting" thread for 2008. From this point forward, it will either be posts on House special elections, the final Presidential totals, the Minnesota recount, or the Illinois Senate special elections. I hope you enjoyed reading these overtime run-up threads as much as I enjoyed writing them. It is always fun to step back and see the big federal election picture all at once.

Presidential Vote Counting Thread

Chris Bowers — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:20:51 GMT

OK, this is a thread for being really, really greedy in the--yes, still ongoing--2008 election. The big news is that McCain has dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Woo-hoo!

I had been waiting for this, but as vote totals continue to trickle in, McCain has now dropped below 46.00% in the national popular vote. Right now, Obama stands at 52.7149%, and McCain is at 45.9857%, for a margin of 6.73%. The best part is that McCain is now below 46.00%, and could still, quite realistically, fall to 45.9% in counts that round to the nearest tenth of a percent. I'm still hoping for the overall margin can reach 7.00%, although there are now very few votes still uncounted and / or left to recount. Obama's raw vote margin is currently 8,538,623. Another neat goal would be 9,000,000, although that is even more unlikely than 7.00%.

On a less hopeful note, it is highly likely that Missouri's eleven electoral votes will go to John McCain, making the final electoral count Obama 365-173 McCain instead of Obama 376-162 McCain. McCain currently leads "The Show Me State" by 4,716 votes, with about 6,300 provisional ballots yet to be counted. As such, in order to win the state, Obama will need to secure about 87.5% of the provisional ballots. The reason the networks have not called the state, despite this deficit, is that Obama will gain some votes, and will also have the right to a recount if it so desires. However, given that asking for such a recount might appear a bit petty after he already won a solid national victory, it is unlikely that there will be a fight over Missouri's electoral votes.

A blogger like me can afford to be greedy about the 2008 election. Barack Obama, however, can't spend his political capital in that way. Oh well.

Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part Two

Chris Bowers — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.

The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry.
Senate Races

Georgia: Have you started linking to Saxby Chambliss yet? The more people who do, the higher it will appear in search engine rankings. If we can push it into the first ten results for Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, then it will result in a lot of excellent voter contacts. Everyone who encounters the site will be a voter looking for more information on Saxby Chambliss, and we can show them this great website made by an enterprising activist.

There is still only one post-election poll in Georgia, showing Saxby Chambliss up 3%. Martin is racking up $50,000 a day on Act Blue, Obama has sent staff, McCain has stumped for Chambliss, and both the NRSC and DSCC are running ads. I like the new DSCC ad:

The best part about this ad is that it makes a partisan case against gridlock, rather than a bi-partisan one. In this ad, the presence of large numbers of Republicans in the Senate is the source of gridlock, rather than vague platitudes about "working with both sides." The former is a better argument, because it actually makes sense.
Minnesota: This one is moving onto the recount stage, which will begin next week. Franken's deficit has been reduced to 200 votes in the final pre-recount audit, according to The Uptake. Also, a new study has come out, suggesting that Franken will gain votes once Minnesota ballots with undervotes on the Senate campaign are examined. Franken is also expected to gain from the regular recounting, so this one is going to be very close. Expect the fight to come down to legal inspections of individual ballots, a process that will begin on December 16th. This will, in all likelihood, be the last campaign to be decided this year. There might even be a dispute at the Senate swearing in ceremony in the first week of January!

House Races

California 04: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails Republican Tom McClintock by 691 votes. Approximately 35,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in this campaign, plus a small but undetermined number of "regular" votes in two pro-McClintock counties and one toss-up county (source). Pending the remaining 35,000 votes, neither side has declared victory, and both will attend freshman orientation next week. Brown will have to do well among the absentees in order to win this. He should, just like all Democrats, do well among the provisionals. No word on when all of the votes will be counted here.
Louisiana 04: No news here. As with last time, this is a Republican-leaning district (R+7), with dueling polls. The internal Democratic poll, with a 4.0% margin of error, shows Paul Carmouche ahead by 10%. The internal Republican poll, with a laughable margin of error of 8.3%, shows the Republican ahead by 5%. This campaign leans Democratic, but only slightly. In the Louisiana 6th race a couple weeks ago, the Republican made up a lot of ground in the final days to squeak out a win.
Ohio 15: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails Republican Steve Stivers by 149 votes. 27,000 provisional ballots, almost all in Democratic-leaning Franklin county, remain to be counted. Stivers is challenging about 1,000 of those ballots in court, with a ruling due out on Monday:
A federal judge says he'll rule Monday on whether he has jurisdiction in a case involving a still-unresolved congressional race and provisional ballots.

U.S. District Court Judge Algenon Marbley says he'll hear from both sides Monday if he decides he can hear the case.

If not, Marbley says he'll send the issue back to the Ohio Supreme Court where it was originally filed.

Kilroy currently leads by 5% in Franklin county, suggesting that she stands to gain about 1,250 votes from the provisional ballots even if the 1,000 Stivers is challenging are tossed. With her expected gains more than 1,000 votes larger than her current deficit, it seems quite likely that Mary Jo Kilroy will win this district.
Oh, and I should add than a 10% provisional ballot rate in this district is a travesty. Pathetic.

My current guess is that we win two of the three House seats, making for a total of D 259-176 R, exactly one seat under my projection. In the Senate, I don't feel like we are the favorite in either campaign, but we do have a good chance to win at least one of them. If we do, then we will have enough seats to pass The Employee Free Choice Act, providing card check law nationwide and an opportunity to transform the American workplace. We already have enough seats to pass really all of Obama's agenda.

In the national U.S. House popular vote, Democrats currently lead by 8.88%, making it the largest popular vote victory in either a national Presidential or Congressional campaign since 1984. That is a real accomplishment for Chris Van Hollen.

Oh yeah, and in the presidential campaign, Obama's popular vote lead has grown to 52.70%--46.00%. I look forward to the moment when McCain dips below 46%, although my hope for a 7.00% victory now seems highly unlikely. The only remaining state to be called, Missouri, will complete counting on Monday. McCain currently holds a 4,900 vote lead, and will probably hang on to win the state. The final electoral vote count should be Obama 365-173 McCain. Not bad!

How Republicans Trapped McCain

Chris Bowers — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:00:00 GMT

On November 4th and 5th, Democracy Corps conducted a post-election poll that, among other things, looked at the reasons why voters supported and opposed Barack Obama and John McCain. The results offer real insight into the why Obama won, and also into just how deep a hole Republicans have dug for themselves.

Beyond even the anti-Republican political environment, in an election when McCain was forced to try and win voters who do not traditionally support Republicans, McCain found himself trapped by an activist base that both demands social conservatism and which has failed to elected a significant number of women and minorities to statewide and other leadership positions. The net result was that, in his necessary attempt to appeal to voters who usually do not support Republicans, McCain was practically forced to pick Sarah Palin. However, she ended up undermining his most effective campaign messaging--"experience vs. inexpereince"--presented Obama with a free line of attack, and overall became a net drag on the Republican ticket.

Full explanation in the extended entry.
First, according to the Democracy Corps survey, take a look at the concerns McCain voters had about Obama (emphasis mine):

Q.49 (DO NOT ASK IF VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA AND DIDN'T CONSIDER IN CHCEJM) Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama?

Too inexperienced and too big a risk to be commander-in-chief.............................................................41
Wrong on abortion, gay marriage and restricting guns.......32
Would redistribute wealth and introduce socialism.............29
Would raise my taxes..........................................................23
Would increase taxes on small business and hurt the economy..............................................................................21
Too ready to retreat in Iraq and weaken our national security................................................................................21
Associates with people and groups that make me uncomfortable......................................................................20
Would increase government spending................................14
His health care plan is too government-run.........................13
Would give Democrats too much control in Washington.....13
Would end up catering to minority groups and not working for all.......................................................................9
Is out of touch with working people......................................3
(All).......................................................................................6
(Other)..................................................................................1
(None)..................................................................................5
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................2

The negative attack on Obama with the most impact was his lack of experience. By comparison, the attacks on Ayers and Wright that the McCain campaign and Republican third-party groups engaged in during the final weeks had minimal impact, with less than half as many people citing that as a negative reason to vote against Obama. Further, most of the other attacks listed here focus on socialism, taxes and big government. However, as a campaign focal point, those were losing attack as exit polls showed a majority of the country in favor of government expansion. This is important because it shows just how deeply McCain wounded himself by selecting Sarah Palin. The winning attack was neither opposing "big government" nor Obama's associates, but rather Obama's lack of experience.

However, as we can see with the top concern Obama voters had about McCain, rather than reinforcing McCain's "experience" message with his vice-presidential selection, instead Sarah Palin emerged as the top concern about John McCain:

Q.50 (DO NOT ASK IF VOTED FOR JOHN MCCAIN AND DIDN'T CONSIDER IN CHCEBO) Let me read you a list of doubts about John McCain. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for John McCain?

Picked Sarah Palin as his running mate..............................37
Would give tax breaks to the rich and big corporations and not to the middle class..................................................35
Would continue Bush's policies...........................................34
Would stay in Iraq................................................................28
Would privatize Social Security and cut Medicare benefits................................................................................22
Would tax health care benefits and give insurance companies more power.......................................................22
Ran a negative campaign rather than say what'd he do.....20
Would help end a woman's right to choose on abortion......17
Is too old to be president.....................................................16
His erratic response to the financial crisis...........................14
Supports outsourcing and bad trade deals...........................8
Would cut government spending and services.....................4
(All).......................................................................................4
(Other)..................................................................................1
(None)..................................................................................2
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................2

The focus of Obama's negative messaging was McCain's ties to Bush and plans to deliver tax breaks to big corporations. While those lines of attack were clearly effective, Palin still narrowly emerged as the top concern. This was a serious problem for McCain, because it undercut his effective attacks on Obama's lack of experience, and because it was a "free" attack that Obama never really had to make himself. It even undercut the positive messaging from the McCain campaign:

[877 Respondents]
Q.47 (ASK ONLY VOTED FOR JOHN MCCAIN) Now let me read you a list reasons to support John McCain. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for John McCain?

Total
Is a strong leader and would be a strong commander-in-chief.................................................................................48
Would drill for oil and explore all energy sources for energy independence..........................................................30
Supported the surge and would not retreat in Iraq..............28
Picked Sarah Palin as his running mate..............................28
Was a P-O-W and has always put country first...................26
Is a maverick who works with both parties..........................19
Would cut taxes...................................................................17
Would end earmarks and pork barrel spending..................14
I just couldn't vote for Barack Obama..................................13
Would stabilize home prices and help fix the financial crisis....................................................................................11
Is a reformer who would lessen the influence of special interests...............................................................................11
His health care plan gives everyone a $5,000 credit and more choice...................................................................7
(All).......................................................................................5
(Other)..................................................................................3
(None)..................................................................................1
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................1

McCain picked Palin at least partially in order to appeal to voters who do not traditionally vote for Republicans. Given the unfavorable political environment for Republicans in 2008, appealing to such voters was necessary for McCain. However, Palin ended up as a net drag on the ticket, both because she undermined the most effective messaging from the McCain campaign ("experience"), and also because noticeably more people identified her as a concern (37%) than as a benefit (28%). The solution would have been for McCain to choose a woman or a minority with less baggage, more experience, and a higher level of campaign competence.

However, McCain was trapped on this front. With no Republican ethnic minorities holding statewide office, the obvious choice, Condoleezza Rice, refused consideration for the VP slot. Further, Colin Powell didn't even support John McCain. (Update: Rice and Powell might both be pro-choice, thus nixing them anyway.) Among women, all Republican Senators except for Elizabeth Dole are pro-choice. Further, this is also, at last by wingnut standards, the case for Jodi Rell and Linda Lingle, the other two women Republican Governors apart from Palin. Joe Lieberman fits this bill, too. So, as far as non-traditional picks go, Sarah Palin, Elizabeth Dole (who was busy losing re-election at the time) and Mel Martinez (also inexperienced and favored immigration reform) were the only available options who had a chance to be approved by the hard, anti-choice delegate base at the Republican convention. Or, at least, those three were the only options that the theocons wouldn't despise, and cause them to turn away from McCain in large numbers.

Thus, McCain was simultaneously trapped by a political environment where he was forced to appeal to voters who are not traditionally Republican, by a party that has virtually no women and minorities in positions of power and also by a party which will not accept anyone but a social conservative at the top of the national ticket. In a search for socially conservative women or minorities in positions of power in the Republican Party, Sarah Palin was one of very few options for the job. Given that Mel Martinez was almost as inexperienced as Palin, and given Dole's general unpopularity and advanced age, even though Palin ended up being a drag on the ticket and undermining McCain's messaging, McCain didn't really have any better options.

It is possible, even likely, that if McCain had selected someone like Romney, he would have performed better in the election. However, he still would have lost, since Romney provides no new voters for Republicans, especially no new women. The socialist attacks were not enough, and neither were the "traditional values" voters. McCain needed to enhance his effective experience vs. inexperience attack, and combine it with an identity-based appeal to groups less likely to support Republicans. However, the profile of the Vice-Presidential candidate McCain needed--an experienced, campaign-ready, social conservative who could appeal to voters (mainly women) who do not traditionally support Republicans--simply was not available. If Condoleezza Rice had accepted the slot (always highly unlikely), and if she was accepted by the Republican base (again, highly unlikely) then--and perhaps only then--McCain might have had a shot. Otherwise, McCain was trapped by his party not only in terms of the anti-Republican environment, but also because of their lack of diversity in elected officials, and even further by the uncompromising social conservatism of their activist base.

To concern troll for a moment, if Republicans want to reverse this situation, they are going to have to start appealing to a wider array of demographic groups, and find a means to free their candidates from the hold of their theocon base. However, given that most Republicans want the party to shift even further to the right, don't hold your breath on that one.

Still Counting, Recounting and Runoff Compendium

Chris Bowers — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:30:00 GMT

With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry.
Here is the best of what's left:

Election Run-offs

Georgia Senate: The run-off for Georgia Senate will take place on December 2nd. The only post-election poll on the campaign comes from Daily Kos / Research 2000, showing Republican Saxby Chambliss ahead 49%-46%. Turnout for the run-off will only be about 50%-60% November 4th levels. Also, it is unlikely that African-Americans, who were about two-thirds of Martin's voters on November 4th, will turnout at such high levels. So, the odds do not favor us on this one.

However, Jim Martin's Act Blue pages are hopping, I am still running Personal Paid Media for this campaign:

If you are running a Personal Paid Media campaign, or if you are simply interested in a form of search engine activism that is free, considering sending your ads to Saxby-Chambliss.com or embedding that website in a hyperlink whenever you write Saxby Chambliss. The site was created by a progressive activist who just noticed that Saxby Chambliss had left the URL wide open.
Louisiana 4th: Louisiana run-off elections will take pace on December 7th, making this the closing event of the 2008 campaign season. The district is R+7, but Democrat Paul Carmouche leads Republican Republican John Fleming by 10% according to an internal poll. Fleming did release a counter-internal poll showing him up 5%, but it has a hilariously small sample size of 140, and a margin of error over 8%. This campaign is somewhere between a toss-up and leaning Democratic.

Election Recounts

Minnesota Senate: Entering the recount, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 206 votes. The vote will be certified on November 19th, and the recount will begin soon thereafter at 100+ sites across the state. Each campaign will have a lawyer at each site. After the recount, on December 16th, the canvassing board will begin to rule, one by one, on challenged ballots. Further, a fight over 461 disqualified absentee ballots in one county will go to court.

So, this one is going to take a while. Franken will likely gain votes in the recount, but finding 207 will be difficult. The fact is that it is better to be ahead than behind in this situation. WineRev has a complete breakdown of the timeline and key players.
California 4th: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails by 815 votes in this district. There are a few votes left to count, and a recount is also likely. However, the campaign is in a holding pattern until the first count is completed. This one looks unlikely.
Ohio 15th: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails by 149 votes, with provisional ballots pending. There are thousands of provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, and two years ago Kilroy gained more than 150 votes in that phase of the counting. This one still seems like a toss-up.

Balance of Power
There are a few other House seats that some consider undecided, but which I did not list here. While some are still waiting on AK-AL, I'm calling it for the Republican incumbent Don Young. Also, some are waiting on the LA-02 runoff with William Jefferson, but I have no doubt he will win. Finally, others are waiting on VA-05, but Tom Perriello will win there.

Overall, this puts the balance of partisan power in the U.S. House at D 257-175 R, with three campaigns outstanding. Either D 259-176 R or D 258-177 R appears to be the most likely final outcome, given that Republicans are favored in CA-04, Democrats are favored in LA-04, and OH-15 really is a toss-up.

In the Senate, I didn't list Alaska, but Mark Begich will win. This provides Democrats 56 seats plus Sanders and, as is appearing more likely all the time, plus Lieberman. Republicans right now only have 40 seats in the Senate, which is why I indicated last night that we are close to the point where Republicans don't matter anymore. Even though such a sentence smacks of hubris, I mostly stand by that assessment. It is accurate to say that if Franken and Martin both win, then Republicans won't really matter for pretty much all of 2009. So, we are close to the point where Republicans won't matter for a little while.

In the Presidential election, Obama currently leads the popular vote 52.69% to 46.01%. His margin has been steadily increasing over the last nine days, and will continue to do so until the final numbers are certified later this month. Missouri's eleven electoral votes are currently undecided, but Obama would need to make up 5,000 votes among provisional ballots. That seems unlikely, and the final electoral count will almost certainly be Obama 365-173 McCain.

That one electoral vote in Nebraska will really narrow down the final contestants for the Mac Book on Daily Kos's election contest. I won't be winning that, but I did win National Journal's contest for bloggers. That's something, I guess. Also, once final results are certified across all states, I will be interested to see how the various polling forecasting methodologies fared against one another. Specifically, I want to see how my method fared against fivethirtyeight and pollster.com. They both know more about polls and statistics than I do, but I wouldn't count my method out before the final numbers are in. I'm pretty sure there was virtually no difference in average error.

CQ Politics also has a good rundown of campaigns that are still undecided.

Demographic Shifts, 2004 to 2008

Chris Bowers — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:15:00 GMT

Where did Obama gain the most relevant to Kerry four years ago? I've seen dozens of theories floating about. but no systematic analysis. Usually, the theories floated are connected to the organization of the person doing the floating. For example, a member of a youth vote coalition will attribute Obama's victory to young voters, a spokesperson for a Lainto coalition will say it was Latino voters, a spokesperson for a women's organization will say it was single women, etc.

In order to try and provide more than just speculation and organizational trumpeting, in the extended entry I provide a table that shows Obama's shift from 2004 across every major demographic. Check it out.
2004 exit poll
2008 exit poll

Note: "Raw shift" means the change in the overall margin Obama earned from a given demograhpic compared. For example, if Obama won a demographic that makes up 10% of the electorate by a 60%-40% margin, than earned an overall +2.0% margin from that group. If Kerry earned an overall 1.0% margin from that group four years ago, then that group had a "raw shift" of 1.0%

Obama's demographic shift from 2004

Demographic	Percent Shift	Raw Shift
Gender
Women	+10%	+5.3%
Men	+12%	+5.5%
Ethnicity
White	+5%	+4.2%
Black	+14%	+3.5%
Latino	+27%	+2.5%
Asian	+15%	+0.3%
Other	+21%	+0.4%
Age
18-29	+23%	+4.6%
30-44	+13%	+3.8%
45-64	NA	+2.7%
65+	-2%	-0.3%
Income
Under $15K	+21%	+0.7%
$15K-$30K	+18%	+1.7%
$30K-$50K	+11%	+2.1%
$50K-$75K	+12	+2.8%
$75K-100K	+13%	+1.9%
$100K-$150K	+11%	+1.2%
$150K-$200K	+14%	+0.3%
$200K+	+34%	+1.2%
Education
No HS	+27%	+1.1%
HS Grad	+11%	+2.3%
Some College	+14%	+2.8%
4 year grad	+8%	+2.1%
Post Grad	+7%	+1.3%
Party
Dem	+3%	+2.0%
Rep	+6%	+6.3%
Ind	+7%	+2.1%
Ideology
Liberal	+7%	+2.3%
Moderate	+12%	+5.2%
Conservative	+11%	+3.7%
Religion
Protestant	+10%	+5.4%
Catholic	+14%	+3.8%
Jewish	+8%	-0.4%
Other	+10%	Even
None	+16%	+2.7%

My quick reaction to these numbers are that Obama's victory was achieved primarily by non-whites, voters under 45, and what seems to be heavily depressed Republican turnout. Obama's victory among those making over $200K is also shcoking. I'll work on tracking down more numbers later on. What are your thoughts on these figures?

The Pluralist Coalition Manifests

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:30:00 GMT

The 2006 and 2008 national exit polls show an overall pro-Democratic margin within 1% of each other. However, they reach this margin in very different ways. Specifically, Obama heavily under-performed 2006 Democrats among white voters, losing that group by 12% compared to only a 4% Democratic defeat two years ago. However, he won the campaign anyway, and did so with a margin nearly identical to 2006.

How did he do so? In the extended entry, I discuss the long awaited rise to power of the pluralist coalition.
In 2006, non-whites composed 23% of the electorate, and broke for Obama by a margin of 75%-24% (see the "religion among white" crosstab). However, in 2008, non-whites composed 26% of the electorate, and broke for Obama by a 79%-18% margin (see the same crosstab). That amounts to a 4.1% increase for Obama, drawn entirely from non-white voters, virtually canceling out Obama's 5.7% drop among white voters.

Obama also won white non-Christians, who represented 13% of the electorate, by a margin of 72%-25%, This margin is identical to the Democratic score among this group in 2006, meaning that Obama's entire decline among whites came from white Christians. Compared to 2006 Democrats, Obama gained among non-whites, held steady among white non-Christians, and dropped among white Christians.

This is the manifestation of the pluralist coalition I have written about for four years (see Maybe It Is a Battle Of Civilizations, Towards a Pluralist Strategy and The End of Bubba Dominance for my major writings on the subject). Here are some figures about this coalition to keep in mind:

Roughly 60% of all Democratic voters are now non-white and / or non-Christian (per exit polls).
Democrats hold a 3-1 margin among non-whites and / or non-Christians (per exit polls)
Non-whites and / or non-Christians now compose 39% of the electorate, their highest total ever (per exit polls)
Over 60% of the country under the age of 43 is non-white and / or non-Christian (Source). Many commenters will justifiably ogle the huge, pro-Obama youth vote this year, but really the non-white and / or non-Christian vote are deeply intertwined.
Over 100% of the population growth in America comes from non-whites and / non-Christians. That is, the white Christian population in America is actually slowly declining, even though the population of the country is still increasing on right pace with average world population growth. (Source)

In this context, Obama's victory should not be seen as a historical fluke created by the confluence of disastrous Republican governing, a 2004 Illinois Senate field that collapsed around him, and a great speech at the Democratic convention four years ago. It is, instead, a harbinger of America's future.

The coalition that Obama won with is just getting started in terms of political dominance. This really is the end of the political dominance of the socially conservative white voter, no matter how many pundits claim that we live in a center-right America. (See also Simon Rosenberg's essay On Obama, race and the end of the Southern Strategy.) In fact, if anything, as long as center-right media and political institutions fail to see the writing on the wall and actually start appealing to this coalition, they will continue to lose market share.

America is not a center-right nation. It is now a culturally pluralistic nation, and the line between identity and ideology is becoming awfully blurry these days.

Recounting Where Things Stand

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:35:08 GMT

In the extended entry, I take a quick look at where the campaigns for President, Senate and House currently stand. Lots of counting, and recounting, to be done.

More in the extended entry.
President
Looks like 364-174, with Obama winning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Doesn't look good in Missouri.

Right now, turnout is at about 119 million, which would be down 3 million from 2004. However, there are millions of absentee ballots still to be counted, possibly three million in California alone.

In the popular vote, looks like Obama won by about 6.5%. That number could grow to 7.0% as ore votes are counted.

Senate
Democrats have 54 seats, Republicans 40, and Independents 2. There are four remaining campaigns:

We are tailing in Alaska, and it doesn't look good. Probably one for Republicans. Something strange happened in Alaska.
Georgia will have a run-off. Four more weeks of campaigning for Jim Martin.
Minnesota is headed to a recount. Right now, Coleman leads by 694 votes, with all precincts reporting. The provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, will come into play as well. Not over by a longshot. AP already retracted their call for Coleman. Recount and certification will take at least two weeks.
Oregon is close, but seems like it will be OK.

If we win Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon, we get the Employee Free Choice Act. However, we need all three. Right now, I think we are only the favorite in one (Oregon). I can see pulling off one upset, but both will be difficult.

House
Swing State Project has the most concise round-up I can find. It looks like Democrats have 256 seats right now, counting ID-01, MD-01, and VA-05 for our side, with six undecided. Three campaigns, NJ-03, SC-01, and WA-08 are yet to be counted. There will be two run-offs in Louisiana. Also, CA-04 is headed to a recount, but we are trailing.

This is a net 20-seat pickup so far. Looks like we will come in on the lower end of my 21-27 seat range, and probably not hit the 24 which I labeled my best guess.

****

Most campaigning is over, but there is still another month to go in some areas. I will continue to monitor the 2008 elections as long as they continue.

Update: Democrat Adler wins NJ-03. That makes a 21 seat gain for Democrats.

Update 2: It appears we have lost SC-01.

Third Presidential Results Thread

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 06:58:08 GMT

National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12

Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Missouri	99%	49%	50%	11
NE-02	100%	49%	50%	1

Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.

Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).

Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.

Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.

Second Victory Thread

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 03:49:04 GMT

The networks will all officially call the election at 11 p.m. So, consider this an media official victory thread.

Also, I am going to bump the House Forecast above all others. So, consider this an open thread for the Georgia and Minnesota Senate race as well.

Update: With 40% reporting, Franken and Coleman are tied at 40%.

Also, its bedlam in West Philly. Horns honking everywhere. People on the street hugging each other. It feels sublime, and I don't use that word lightly.

OBAMA WINS!!!!!!!

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:23:48 GMT

Obama has won Ohio per MSNBC. The election is over. Obama will be the next President.

YES!!!!!!!!

Update: Obama wins double, as Colorado tips over the edge.

Update 2: Obama wins triple, with Virginia.

Presidential Returns, Thread #2

Chris Bowers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 01:52:41 GMT

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain

Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	97%	50%	49%	11
Missouri	86%	48%	50%	11
Montana	34%	51%	46%	3

Update 6: Pile it on: Obama on the way to Indiana, Montana and possibly more landslide. I haven't got any states wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind on Indiana, Missouri, Montana or North Carolina.

Update 5: Obama wins Virginia: Obama takes the lead in Virginia, and Virginia expert Not Larry Sabato calls the state. Good enough for me. Indiana is next.

Update 4: Obama wins Colorado: Obama hits 293, passes, Bush's EV best. Florida and Virginia soon...

Update 3: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY: As per the update above, Obama wins Ohio and, therefore, the Presidency. Further, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and maybe even Indiana and North Carolina to become blue.

Update 2: Colorado exit poll:Obama +7

Update 1: McCain wins North Dakota: Darn. Didn't think it would happen. On the plus side, South Dakota and Louisiana is too close to call. In fact, so is NE-02.

Presidential Returns, Thread #1

Chris Bowers — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:47:20 GMT

National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain

Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	52%	48%	51%	11
Florida	41%	51%	48%	27
Virginia	45%	46%	54%	13
N. Carolina	14%	55%	45%	15
Ohio	550K	64%%	35%%	20
Missouri	8 p.m.	--%	--%	11
N. Dakota	8 p.m.	--%	--%	3
Arizona	9 p.m.	--%	--%	10
Colorado	9 p.m.	--%	--%	9
Montana	10 p.m.	--%	--%	3
Nevada	10 p.m.	--%	--%	3

Update 8--McCain wins Georgia: Damn. Also, I'm starting a new presidential thread.

Update 7--Obama wins Pennsylvania!: MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama! Map will be updated shortly.

Update 6: Missouri and Pennsylvania exits: Pennsylvania shows Obama by 10% and Missouri shows Obama by 8%.

Update 5: Obama up 7% in Ohio exit poll: Check it out here.

Update 4: Cities tend to report late: Remember, outside of Pennsylvania, cities tend to report last. So, even though Obama is trailing in some of these early returns, his big precincts haven't come in yet.

Update 3: North Carolina exit poll: Obama leading in the North Carolina exit poll 51.4%-47.6% according to the gender crosstabs. All of these exit poll estimates are according to the exit polls crosstabs, btw.

Update 2: Some exit polls: Exit polls for Georgia (McCain winning by 2%), Indiana (Obama winning by 6%), and Virginia (Obama winning by 9%).

Update 1: On The Early Calls: As I wrote earlier today, twice, I am calling all states that were more than 10% in the polls before the election. No state polling will be wrong by that much. It ain't gonna happen. I stand by my early calls. It starts 243-132.

Early Exits

Chris Bowers — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:31:02 GMT

Via distantshore in quick hits, take these for what they are worth (read numbers as Obama-McCain):

GA 47-51
FL 52-49
IA 58-42
IN 52-48
MI 60-39
MN 56-39
MO52-48
NC 52-48
NH 57-43
NM 56-43
NV 55-45
OH 54-45
PA 57-42
VA 55-45
WV 45-55
WI 58-42
National 54-44

Remember to take your salt with these. The good news is that Obama wins even with a large, 5%-7% shift toward McCain.

My Final Election Forecasts

Chris Bowers — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:30:00 GMT

This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:

President
Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain

You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the Pollster.com national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.

Senate

Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.

House
Best Guess: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
Guess Range: 21-27
Read the entire final forecast here

Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?

Forecaster Consensus, November 3rd

Chris Bowers — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:28:29 GMT

Here is the electoral forecaster consensus for November 3rd, at least among the six poll aggregation sites that I frequent most:

Obama 338, McCain 171, Toss-up 29

The six forecasters--538, Electoral-Vote, Pollster.com, Open Left, Real Clear Politics, and TPM Election Central--only disagree on three states:

Missouri: Pollster.com and TPM have Obama narrowly ahead, while the 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left and RCP have McCain narrowly ahead.
North Carolina: RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Pollster.com and Open Left have Obama narrowly ahead. Update: Pollster.com and Open Left both now have Obama and McCain exactly tied in North Carolina.
North Dakota: Pollster.com has Obama narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left, RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead.

Other than these three states, we have a consensus. Unless new polls come in and change the current picture, I will forecast Obama 353-185 McCain, with North Carolina barely going toward Obama but both Missouri and North Dakota barely going to McCain. Missouri and North Carolina are almost impossibly close at this point, so I think simple guessing will win out, rather than statistical insight of any kind.

It isn't just me. There is wide consensus that Obama is poised for a comfortable victory.

Hope In Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Montana

Chris Bowers — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:17:24 GMT

In my nearly final presidential forecast, I give the following breakdown:

Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.
Four close states for McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Montana are projected for McCain, even though there is still a small chance for Obama to win one or more of those four states.

This projection comes from looking at the simple mean of polling conducted during the final week of the campaign. I stand by this methodology despite it's simplicity, and even to a certain extent because of it's simplicity. I have come to believe that forecasting close (within single digits), statewide, general elections accurately is not the sole province of statistical wizards and those who wish to argue with polls. Instead, I believe it is something anyone can do as long as they have an Internet connection, and are willing to not argue with the polls they don't like. As long as you have the courage to look at all of the recent polls and avoid adding any special sauce of your own, then you can project close (within single digits), statewide, general elections as accurately as any "professional" forecaster around.

On November 5th, we will know if I am correct. However, if I turn out to be wrong, and Obama scores a larger than expected victory of around 400 electoral votes, the reason will be due to cell-phone only households. Within the last twenty-four hours, both fivethirtyeight.com and Pollster.com have released studies indicating that Obama leads by about 4% more in polls that include cell-phone only households, than he does in polls that do not. A shift of that magnitude has the potential not only to push all three of the toss-up states to Obama, but also all four of the narrow McCain states. This could give Obama up to 406 electoral votes, and a national popular vote victory of 9-10%.

Now, I'm sticking with the "use all polls" and "don't argue with polls" philosophy, and instead projecting Obama to win by around 7% nationally and to pull in between 340-360 electoral votes. With only one day left, I will not abandon my old mantra, "the truth is always in between." However, this cell-phone only discrepancy should still give hope to those of you working in those four "Lean McCain" states. Keep in mind that there could also be a discrepancy in the other direction due to a lingering "Bradley effect," that might push Obama's victory down to around 5% or so, and which could still tip Florida and / or Ohio toward McCain. There is no circumstance I can forsee where Obama drops below 291 electoral votes, meaning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.

I am forecasting 7% and 340-360, but I can see reasonable people pegging the range anywhere from 4% to 10%, with electoral votes ranging from 291-406 (or even 407, with Nebraska-02). What is your final prediction? Let's lay it on the line in the comments.

Presidential Forecast, 11/3-4: 13 Hours Left

Chris Bowers — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:00:00 GMT

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 200 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.9%--44.3% McCain

Dark Blue (278): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (60): Obama +0.1%-+5.9%
Lean Red (53): McCain +0.1%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/27-11/03
States not shown are further either direction

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	Polls	Obama EVs
Obama Lock	154					154
Maine-AL	2	57.0%	40.5%	+16.5%	2	156
Iowa	7	54.0%	38.3%	+15.7%	3	163
New Jersey	15	53.5%	38.0%	+15.5%	2	178
Oregon	7	55.8%	40.3%	+15.5%	5	185
Washington	11	53.0%	39.5%	+13.5%	2	196
Wisconsin	10	54.0%	40.5%	+13.5%	2	206
Michigan	17	53.8%	40.8%	+13.0%	4	223
Maine-02	1	52.0%	41.0%	+11.0%	1*	224
Minnesota	10	52.5%	41.7%	+10.8%	6	234
New Mexico	5	53.8%	43.3%	+10.5%	4	239
New Hampshire	4	52.4%	42.0%	+10.4%	7	243
Pennsylvania	21	51.6%	43.9%	+7.7%	9	264
Colorado	9	51.4%	45.0%	+6.4%	5	273
Nevada	5	50.0%	43.7%	+6.3%	3	278
Virginia	13	50.5%	45.8%	+4.7%	6	291
Ohio	20	48.6%	46.7%	+1.9%	8	311
Florida	27	48.7%	47.1%	+1.6%	9	338
North Carolina	15	48.1%	48.2%	-0.1%	9	353
Missouri	11	48.0%	48.6%	-0.6%	7	364
North Dakota	3	46.0%	47.0%	-1.0%	1	367
Indiana	11	47.0%	48.4%	-1.4%	5	378
Montana	3	46.0%	48.5%	-2.5%	4	381
Arizona	10	45.7%	48.7%	-3.0%	3	391
Georgia	15	46.2%	49.8%	-3.8%	6	406
Lock McCain	132					538

* = Poll conducted before October 27th

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.

Update 3:00 p.m.: New Rasmussen swing state polls added. New Strategic Vision Pennsylvania added. New PPP Missouri added. Links can be found in quick hits.

Update 6:00 p.m.: Survey USA North Carolina, along with PPP Indiana and Nevada.

Update 8:00 p.m.: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia and Ohio included.

Update 9:00 p.m.: New Florida, Georgia, Maine and Washington polls added.

Update 1:00 a.m.: New Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia polls added.

Update 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: Final update completed. North Carolina flips to McCain.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the final eight days of the campaign (October 27th forward). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. In the event two polls were not taken in the final seven days of the campaign, the two most recent polls were used instead. No polls conducted before October 13th are ever used, no matter what. The states listed were either swing states in 2004, or are swing states now. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here.

Analysis
These are pretty much the final averages, and I am now using the date range that I promised for the final forecast back in June. These are my final projections for every state, with the exception of Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota, where incoming polls might still change my projection. Obama is at 338 and McCain 171. Only 29 electoral votes are still too close to call.

The number of hours remaining refers to the time when California polls close. That is the moment when no work is left to be done, and when I except all major news outlets will project Obama as the next president. I will continue to update the forecast during the day, and make final projections sometime around noon eastern, tomorrow.

Presidential Forecast, 11/3: 44 Hours Left

Chris Bowers — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 08:00:00 GMT

Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain

Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	Polls	Obama EVs
Obama Lock	154					154
Iowa	7	54.5%	38.5%	+16.0%	2	161
Maine-AL	2	54.0%	38.3%	+15.7%	3*	163
New Jersey	15	53.5%	38.0%	+15.5%	2	178
Oregon	7	56.0%	40.7%	+15.3%	3	185
Washington	11	53.5%	39.0%	+14.5%	2*	196
Wisconsin	10	54.0%	40.5%	+13.5%	2*	206
Michigan	17	53.7%	40.7%	+13.0%	3	223
Maine-02	1	52.0%	41.0%	+11.0%	1*	224
New Mexico	5	53.8%	43.3%	+10.5%	4	229
New Hampshire	4	52.6%	42.4%	+10.2%	5	233
Minnesota	10	53.3%	44.0%	+9.3%	4	243
Pennsylvania	21	52.0%	44.5%	+7.5%	6	264
Colorado	9	51.7%	44.3%	+7.4%	3	273
Nevada	5	49.0%	43.0%	+6.0%	2	278
Virginia	13	50.0%	45.3%	+4.7%	4	291
Florida	27	48.0%	46.0%	+2.0%	3	318
Ohio	20	48.3%	46.3%	+2.0%	3	338
North Carolina	15	48.2%	48.0%	+0.2%	6	353
Missouri	11	47.0%	48.8%	-0.8%	4	364
North Dakota	3	46.0%	47.0%	-1.0%	1	367
Indiana	11	46.3%	48.3%	-2.0%	4	378
Arizona	10	46.5%	49.0%	-2.5%	2	388
Montana	3	45.3%	49.0%	-3.7%	3	391
Georgia	15	45.5%	49.5%	-4.0%	2	406
Lock McCain	132					538

* = One or more polls in average conducted either partially or entirely before October 28th

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the final seven days of the campaign (October 28th forward). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. In the event two polls were not taken in the final seven days of the campaign, the two most recent polls were used instead. No polls conducted before October 13th are ever used, no matter what. The states listed were either swing states in 2004, or are swing states now. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here.

Analysis
After brief periods of improvement, Florida and Ohio once again fall well behind the other swing states in terms of their shift from 2004. This might have something to do with the Mason-Dixon polls, which do indeed tilt Republican, but it might also represent real tightening in those two states. It doesn't effect the outcome, since Obama is a lock in Colorado and Pennsylvania, but it would make Obama's victory a bit less impressive and a bit less satisfying. In a rare moment of optimism, right now I am prone the believe that it is just a "house" polling effect.

Except in the few states--indicated by an *--that are still using older polls, no more polls will be removed from the forecast, only added. (Polls can be replaced if one polling organization releases a new survey that supercedes a previous one.) The final numbers are hardening, and there just doesn't seem to be any way that McCain catch up in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, or a single Kerry state (or Nevada and Virginia, too). Obama has enough to win, and even if it might not be as huge as some had--or still--hope for, it still appears to be in the bag.

Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left

Chris Bowers — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:30:00 GMT

Electoral College: Obama 318, McCain 160 Toss-up 60 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 50.3%--44.0% McCain

Dark Blue (252): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (60): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/26-11/01
States not shown are further either direction

State	EV's	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	Polls	Obama EVs
Obama Lock	154					154
New Jersey	15	53.7%	38.0%	+15.7%	3	169
Iowa	7	54.0%	38.7%	+15.3%	3	176
Oregon	7	54.8%	39.6%	+15.2%	5	183
Washington	11	53.5%	39.0%	+14.5%	2	194
Wisconsin	10	54.0%	40.5%	+13.5%	2	204
Maine-AL	2	56.0%	43.0%	+13.0%	1	206
Michigan	17	53.0%	40.2%	+12.8%	5	223
Minnesota	10	53.0%	40.8%	+12.2%	5	233
Maine-02	1	52.0%	41.0%	+11.0%	1*	234
New Mexico	5	53.8%	43.3%	+10.5%	4	239
New Hampshire	4	52.1%	41.9%	+10.2%	7	243
Colorado	9	51.5%	44.5%	+7.0%	4	252
Pennsylvania	21	50.3%	44.5%	+5.8%	6	273
Nevada	5	48.5%	44.5%	+4.0%	2	278
Virginia	13	49.8%	46.0%	+3.8%	4	291
Florida	27	47.3%	44.8%	+2.5%	4	318
Ohio	20	47.7%	45.7%	+2.0%	3	338
North Carolina	15	47.6%	47.2%	+0.4%	5	353
Indiana	11	46.8%	47.3%	-0.5%	4	364
Missouri	11	47.3%	48.0%	-0.7%	4	375
North Dakota	3	46.0%	47.0%	-1.0%	1	378
Georgia	15	46.0%	49.0%	-3.0%	3	393
Arizona	10	45.8%	49.3%	-3.5%	5	403
Montana	3	45.3%	49.0%	-3.7%	3	406
Nebraska-02	1	44.0%	48.0%	-4.0%	1*	407
Lock McCain	129					538

* = Poll or polls more than one week old

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.
Methodology
The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.

For each state, all polls with the entirety of their interviews conducted within the last 8 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
In the event that no polls were taken within the past week, the most recent polls are used. "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 8 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.

Analysis
Obama cruises to 252 electoral votes, and, given the volume of early voting in Nevada, really to 257 electoral votes. From that point, all he needs to do is avoid being swept in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. He currently holds leads in all three, ranging from a high of ~~5.5%~~ 5.8% in Pennsylvania to a low of 0.4% in North Carolina. Victory certainly seems to be almost assured.

My best bet is that Obama's final electoral total will be either 338 or 353, depending on whether he wins North Carolina or not. I think that Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota will just barely slip toward McCain, with Arizona, Georgia and Montana going for McCain by somewhat wider margins. However, the next two days of polling could convince me otherwise, and I won't be making any final predictions until early morning, November 4th.