Presidential forecasts

Forecaster Consensus, November 3rd

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:28

Here is the electoral forecaster consensus for November 3rd, at least among the six poll aggregation sites that I frequent most:

Obama 338, McCain 171, Toss-up 29

The six forecasters--538, Electoral-Vote, Pollster.com, Open Left, Real Clear Politics, and TPM Election Central--only disagree on three states:

Missouri: Pollster.com and TPM have Obama narrowly ahead, while the 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left and RCP have McCain narrowly ahead.
North Carolina: RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Pollster.com and Open Left have Obama narrowly ahead. Update: Pollster.com and Open Left both now have Obama and McCain exactly tied in North Carolina.
North Dakota: Pollster.com has Obama narrowly ahead, while 538, Electoral-Vote, Open Left, RCP and TPM have McCain narrowly ahead.

Other than these three states, we have a consensus. Unless new polls come in and change the current picture, I will forecast Obama 353-185 McCain, with North Carolina barely going toward Obama but both Missouri and North Dakota barely going to McCain. Missouri and North Carolina are almost impossibly close at this point, so I think simple guessing will win out, rather than statistical insight of any kind.

It isn't just me. There is wide consensus that Obama is poised for a comfortable victory.

Discuss :: (8 Comments)

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