This will probably cause me to lose my subscriber account to Rasmussen, but there is a major discrepancy in the internals of the Rasmussen tracking poll today that I have to point out. Simply put, no matter how I work the number, Obama has a larger lead than the 51%-46% published on their website today.
Here is the problem:
The partisan weighting targets for the Rasmussen tracking poll are currently 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% Other.
According to the subscriber page on Rasmussen's website, the partisan internals for the Rasmussen tracking poll are currently as follows:
Democrats: Obama 88%--11% McCain
Republicans: McCain 87%-10% Obama
Other: Obama 50%-44% McCain
If these partisan weights are combined with these partisan internals, the result is Obama 52.1%--44.9%, or 52%-45% instead of the current 51%-46%. McCain. Even if all the partisan weighting and partisan internal numbers were rounded as favorably to Obama as possible on the subsriber page, Obama still leads 51.54%--45.43%, which is still 52%-45%.
Unless I am missing something, Rasmussen reported today's topline numbers to be closer than they really were. Their own partisan internals say the campaign is 52%-45%, not 51%-46%. As far as I can see, either they are cooking their numbers, or they are feeding their subscribers false information. Given that I have paid $80 for this service so far this year, either way, I am really irritated.
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