Today brings big news about primary challenges to incumbent Democrats in at least three campaigns:
Arkansas Senate, Blanche Lincoln. A new Daily Kos / Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Conservadem Blanche Lincoln is highly vulnerable to a primary challenge from Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Lincoln leads Halter, 42%-26%, even though Halter has not even entered the campaign (yet) and has a name ID 28% lower than Lincoln. That makes this a very winnable campaign for Halter.
Now, Halter is not a hardcore left-winger. As such, even if he enters the campaign, I imagine that many in the netroots won't care to support him. However, I think that would be a real mistake. If we are ever going to get power, we have to demonstrate real consequences for Democrats who lie to us. If Halter runs, it would be an excellent opportunity to deliver that payback.
If we take a pass on delivering payback to Lincoln over her lies because Halter isn't progressive enough, then really no one will give a shit what we think. However, if we deliver that payback, it puts everyone on notice. We have to produce consequence when someone stabs us in the back.
Maryland 4th, Donna Edwards. Speaking of demonstrating consequences, Rahm Emanuel knows how to do that. Back in June, Representative Lynn Woolsey claimed that the White House threatened freshman Democrats who voted against Afghanistan war funding. Given his demeanor and reputation, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Emanuel was likely doing the threatening.
Donna Edwards was one of the freshman who ended up voting against Afghan war funding. And now, she has a primary challenger from her right:
Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn F. Ivey said Wednesday that he has decided not to run for county executive and is forming an exploratory committee to look at challenging Rep. Donna F. Edwards in the Democratic primary next year.(...)
"They represent different wings of the party. Edwards is much more liberal, and Ivey is much more moderate," Herrnson said.
Rumors are that Emanuel is encouraging this challenge. Certainly, rumors are far from proof, but it wouldn't be the first time the Emanuel has stepped into a primary, or threatened a progressive.
Georgia 12th, John Barrow. State Senator Regina Thomas is once again challenging Blue Dog John Barrow in this slightly lean-Democratic district. Thomas is looking to make an issue out of Barrow voting for the Stupak amendment, but against the health care reform package. Barrow laughably claims that, despite those votes, he is actually still pro-Obama, pro-choice, and pro-health care reform:
"Why won't he level with the people?" she asked. "The people in the 12th District deserve better."
Barrow spokeswoman Jane Brodsky rejected Thomas' contentions.
"(He) didn't vote against President Obama's health care plan," Brodsky said. "He voted against (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi's. ..
"Just because he doesn't agree with a particular legislative package doesn't mean he's opposed to reform. He believes we need all the reform we can get, but he's ... for solutions that are actually going to work."
She said he voted for the abortion measure because it applies only to public funds.
"Private plans can still cover elective abortions," she said, "and women can still use their own money to buy such coverage if they choose to do so."
The district is 45% African-American, and the primary electorate is nearly 75% African-American. Barrow won the primary in 2008 due to a combination of Obama cutting an ad for him (the Obama ad was Barrow's entire campaign), and Thomas running a lackluster campaign.
Much will depend on whether Obama is willing to cut an ad for Barrow again. If he is not, then Thomas could unseat Barrow.
Primaries remain one of the few leverage points we have with Congress. I say we lean on the lever as often, and as hard, as possible.
And state Senator Regina Thomas loses badly by a little over 50 points, 76.3% to 23.7%. Thomas, like Fallon, just didn't believe in running a modern campaign with polling, mail, and paid media. Thomas was well-known in Savannah, her district, but she was outspent by $800k to $20k or so, a factor of 40. And Barrow was endorsed by Obama.
The key is to make sure that candidates run modern campaigns and use all tools at their disposal. Neither Fallon nor Thomas did that. They both had the attitude that the public was with them, because they were reactive to the activists backing them and did not reach out beyond that circle. This is a fairly common myopic view from community activists or state politicians who launch into expensive Federal races.
Organizing and politics is very hard. It is useful to understand how tough it is to communicate well with a primary universe, even in a strong year for change.
Today is primary day in Georgia. I expect progressive state Senator and Better Democrat candidate Regina Thomas to be blown out by John Barrow for two reasons. One, Obama endorsed Barrow, a very significant setback for Thomas's chances. She was banking on a change message, and the primary messenger of change has endorsed her opponent. Two, she did not raise money and is not running a professionalized campaign. Her bet is that she and her family can work their personal networks and the churches to drive turnout in a low energy primary against John Barrow. While she has some reach, in any district there's a reason that mail firms exist and radio and TV are important. Barrow is sitting on more than a million dollars in cash, and has been running ads and doing voter contact. This was similar to Leonard Boswell and Ed Fallon; the campaign did not use a credible voter file, and so their numbers were way off.
That's not a statement on Fallon or Thomas; it is brave to run a primary campaign, and very people will help you. Donna Edwards couldn't get good consultants her first race in 2006. But it is something that needs to be fixed.
Even though she is unlikely to win, I'm a contributor to Thomas, just as I gave to Ed Fallon before her. One of my biggest regrets in 2006 was not supporting Marcy Winograd, who really gave Jane Harman a run for her money and changed the voting patterns in the district. There's almost no support for primary challengers anywhere in the country; we on the internet have the ability to change that equation, but we have a lot of learning to do. I remember three years, from 2004-2006, when the we had to put up with the argument that we couldn't win, until we defeated Lieberman in the primary. And then Lieberman won the general, and Al Wynn narrowly beat Donna Edwards, and I had to hear about how the Congress was composed of conservative Democrats.
And then Donna Edwards crushed Al Wynn, and FISA happened. That fight will be turned into an attempt to revise the Patriot Act in 2009. It's going to take a long time to turn this ship around, but we're doing it. The losses are as important, more important perhaps, than the wins, because that is how we learn. Next cycle, Obama's infrastructure is going to leave a lot of fresh campaign operatives unemployed, and a lot of new talent looking to run for office. There will be people who know how to run a voter file, know how to micro-target, understand field campaigns, and mail, and radio, and TV, and paid media online, and integration with the blogging world. They will have learned this on the Obama campaign, and will be able to deploy these skills elsewhere.
In fact, the energy is clearly there. This cycle, there were primary challenges against John Lewis, Ed Towns, Leonard Boswell, Carolyn Kilpatrick and Dennis Kucinich. Not all those challenges were from the left, but the jostling loose of the incumbent protection racket will in general help progressives. And so it's important to have test runs with people like Regina Thomas and Ed Fallon. Tonight, we'll learn a lot more about how far we have to go.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
Whenever a newly elected Democrat turns out to be a disappointment on a key vote, media messaging, or other campaign, there is a long-standing, knee-jerk response. In such situations, some variation of "well, I suppose you would rather have a Republican in that seat instead," is often brought up to quell dissent and keep the troops in line.
However, in Congress, there are now more than more than enough Democrats instead of Republicans to form a majority. To be precise, there are 236 Democrats in the House in seats that could otherwise be held by Republicans, and 49 Democrats in the Senate (plus two others who caucus with Democrats). Further, all indications are that in November, these majorities will grow substantially, providing Democrats will clear majorities in both branches of Congress of such size that Republican opposition could be rendered inert. In this situation, we are past the point of needing more Democrats in Congress. Now, unless we want a repeat of FISA and Iraq on virtually every issue, even under a vast Democratic trifecta, we have to work to make sure that we elect better Democrats.
It is with this principle in mind that today Open Left is introducing its first multi-candidate Act Blue page, simple entitled Better Democrats. In 2008, progressives do not have to, and should not, work to just elect any and all Democrats in every district across the country. Instead, we need to focus our efforts on those candidates who will be strong progressive voices in Congress, whose victories will help define the 2008 elections as a progressive victory, and whose victories will help ensure a long-term Democratic majority for years--maybe decades--to come.
Starting with our first seven candidates, Better Democrats will endorse those candidates whose victory, in our best estimation, will have the largest progressive impact on Congress as a whole. While there is no single criteria for our first seven candidates, there are several important factors we took into consideration. Endorsing The Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq helps. Being from a blue district that will be easier to defend helps. Also, being a woman and / or a minority helps, given that the vast majority of conservative in the Democratic Congress are white men. Even though it is a generalization and not a hard rule, electing more women and minority Democrats to Congress means electing more progressives. Further, Willingness to speak out against Democratic capitulation on issues like Iraq and FISA helps. Yet further, running a primary campaign against a conservative Democratic in Congress really helps. The candidates who most closely match these criteria will end up on the Better Democrats page.
Our first seven candidates are:
Donna Edwards, the newest member of Congress from Maryland's 4th Congressional district. In February, Representative Edwards defeated incumbent Al Wynn in the Democratic primary, but she will surely face strong, more conservative competition in 2010.
Darcy Burner, Democratic nominee from Washington's 8th Congressional district. Darcy is a long-time netroots favorite, even a blogger herself, and hails from a very winnable, very blue district. She is also the organizer of the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq.
Jeff Merkley, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. After a hard fought primary that was waged largely online, not only is Merkley from a blue state, but he is the only Senate nominee to endorse the Responsible Plan.
Regina Thomas, State Senator from Georgia, who is challenging Bush Dog John Barrow in the July 15th Democratic primary for Georgia's 12th congressional district.
Sam Bennett, Eric Massa and Tom Perriello, who are respectively running in the lean-blue Pennsylvania 15th, the lean-red New York 29th and the reddish Virginia 5th. All three were among the original ten endorsees of the Responsible Plan. Not only will they be a step up from the Republicans who currently hold those seats, but they will also be a step up from the many Democrats who capitulated to Bush on FISA and Iraq last week.
More candidates will be added as time goes on, but for now we will start with these seven. Dollar for dollar, you won't find seven candidates who will create more progressive change for your money than these. Make progress happen--give today.
Ezra Klein notes that Obama's team of national security experts is fairly conservative. This isn't a shocker. And then there's this.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has taped a radio commercial on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Savannah, who faces a July 15 primary challenge.
It's the first case of Obama involving himself in a local race in Georgia.
Details of when the ad will start airing and where it will be broadcast - the 12th District covers much of east Georgia, including portions of Augusta and Savannah - were not immediately available Wednesday.
But the Obama campaign made clear to my colleague Aaron Sheinin that it sees Barrow, a two-term Democrat, as an important ally. We've got calls into the Barrow campaign, but haven't heard from them yet.
Barrow is one of the most reactionary members of Congress, and he's facing a progressive primary challenger in Regina Thomas. I could go into Barrow's voting record, but you can just watch this ad he ran for his campaign.
70% of the primary voters in GA-12 are African-American. Barrow is white and has $1.3 million, Thomas is a progressive African-American and a state legislator, and has very little money. I don't know what kind of game Obama is playing, but using his remarkable brand to protect conservative Democrats is a move reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi endorsing Al Wynn. If Barrow loses, Obama has a progressive ally in Thomas. If Barrow wins, a conservative House Democrat owes Obama a big favor. It's a no-lose proposition for him.
As Obama consolidates his power within the party, note who he is bringing with him in terms of economic policy and foreign policy, and note who he is protecting politically.
It is up to us to create a progressive check on Obama, and we might just have our first opportunity.
Bush Dog John Barrow in Georgia is facing a primary challenge from state Senator Regina Thomas. Tondee's Tavern has more on the race, quoting Insider Advantage.
Two-term Democrat John Barrow who represents the 12th District (Augusta and Savannah) has drawn a primary challenge from African-American state Senator Regina Thomas. This district's population is 44.5% African American. In this year's Democratic presidential primary African Americans constituted 69.4% of the turnout. In the 2006 summer primary, 66.8 % of the Democratic voters were black. If two-thirds of the voters in this summer's Democratic primary are African American then if Thomas gets three-fourths of that vote, she wins. If she polls 80% of the black vote, she can win if blacks constitute 62.5% of the turnout.
Barrow will have money, Thomas will have grassroots support. He's an archreactionary, as you can see from this ad.
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