This was supposed to be a nice quiet evening, the calm before the storm. Instead, we get a safe Senate seat in Connecticut that might not actually be safe anymore. The New York Times is reporting that Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has lied about serving in Vietnam:
At a ceremony honoring veterans and senior citizens who sent presents to soldiers overseas, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut rose and spoke of an earlier time in his life.
"We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam," Mr. Blumenthal said to the group gathered in Norwalk in March 2008. "And you exemplify it. Whatever we think about the war, whatever we call it - Afghanistan or Iraq - we owe our military men and women unconditional support."
There was one problem: Mr. Blumenthal, a Democrat now running for the United States Senate, never served in Vietnam. He obtained at least five military deferments from 1965 to 1970 and took repeated steps that enabled him to avoid going to war, according to records.
The deferments allowed Mr. Blumenthal to complete his studies at Harvard; pursue a graduate fellowship in England; serve as a special assistant to The Washington Post's publisher, Katharine Graham; and ultimately take a job in the Nixon White House.
In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, he landed a coveted spot in the Marine Reserve, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. He joined a unit in Washington that conducted drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.
This campaign is not polled very often, but what few polls there are show Blumenthal lead of anywhere from 13% to 36%. And yes, the 13% lead is a Rasmussen poll.
This campaign should not have been a problem, but it might be now. It remains to be seen whether the NYT report will hold up, and also whether a story like this can erase such a large lead. It is entirely possible on both counts.
The biggest problem of all is that the nominating convention to get on the ballot for the Democratic primary is this coming weekend. This story is still unfolding, so there is no way to have clear answers to either the two main questions (is the story true? does this finish Blumenthal with the voters?) by Friday. A second way to get on the ballot would be for someone to file 7,500 signatures by June 8th, which is doable but still tricky given the lack of any other campaign, the lack of clarity on the two main questions, the compressed timeframe, and the holiday weekend.
It would have been better if this happened a month ago. Or, it would have been better if Blumenthal didn't exaggerate his record. Whatever the case, it is still possible for Democrats to win this seat. For one thing, Blumenthal's numbers might now collapse. For another, if Blumenthal's numbers do collapse, other polling has shown Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy ahead by 7%.
Democrats are facing a difficult enough political environment that being saddled with a few disastrous candidates could turn 2010 into 1994. Coakley was weak in Massachusetts, in Illinois Giannoulis also had a scandal break out the week before his primary, in Pennsylvania Arlen Specter's party switch actually made him really unpopular, and now this. All four of those states should have been wins, but at this rate maybe none of them will be. The Democratic Party is recruiting, or at least backing, some pretty damn sucky candidates this year.
The net effect of Byron Dorgan's and Chris Dodd's retirements on the Senate picture is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut.
Losing North Dakota In North Dakota, Senator Byron Dorgan's retirement is a real blow. North Dakota is a pretty red state (Cook PVI R+10), the national environment is pretty favorable to Republicans right now, and Republican Governor Jim Hoeven--who is likely to run--is a very popular figure.
This is made worse given that Byron Dorgan is about the most progressive figure we could have hoped for in North Dakota. While Ed Schultz is a clear exception, even he probably can't beat Hoeven this year. Schultz is unlikely to run, anyway.
All of this makes it extremely difficult--almost impossible, really--to hold the seat this year. A right-winger is now very likely to replace a pretty good Senator in Byron Dorgan.
Gaining Connecticut Chris Dodd was all but toast in Connecticut. He trailed well known Republican Bob Simmons by 10%, and also trailed little-known Linda McMahon. It is not impossible that Dodd could have held the seat, especially if, as was seemingly likely, Linda McMahon won the primary. However, his retirement improves Democratic odds to hold the seat dramatically.
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is now the likely Democratic nominee in Connecticut. Blumenthal will announce that he is running at 2:30 p.m., a couple hours after Dodd officially announces his retirement. In the mid-November Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut, Blumenthal sported a gaudy 78%-13% approval disapproval rating. Public Policy Polling, which just completed a Connecticut poll that included numbers on Blumenthal versus Simmons and McMahon, writes "Democrats will keep the Senate seat in Connecticut now."
In the same way that defeating Hoeven is virtually impossible in North Dakota, defeating Blumenthal is virtually impossible in Connecticut.
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For the Senate, the net result is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut. It is not a disastrous trade, though not a great one, either. A loss in Connecticut would have been easier to reverse in 2016 than a loss in North Dakota. Further, as I already mentioned, Byron Dorgan is pretty progressive for a red state like North Dakota. Short of Ed Schultz becoming a Senator, it will be difficult to get a progressive in that seat anytime soon.
Perhaps worst of all, Blumenthal was a lock to defeat Joe Lieberman in 2012. Back in Februrary, Blumethal led Holy Joe 58%-30% in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Now, Democrats are going to have to find someone else to dump Lieberman in 2012. Whoever else they find will simply not have as good a chance as Blumenthal.
On net, the Senate forecast remains the same. Democrats are expected to lose five seats in November, resulting in a 55-45 Senate. The Governor's races will be looked at in another post.
Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 59-28, Linda McMahon 60-28, and Peter Schiff 63-23. It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator.
Barring something truly shocking, Richard Blumenthal will be the next Senator from Connecticut. Now, we just need someone to dump Lieberman in 2012.
As Schultz pointed out on his show last night, North Dakota requires that candidates maintain residency in the state for five years prior to running for the Senate, and he has lived in Minnesota for the past two years -- meaning he is not eligible for the position.
So, this really does appear to be a Connecticut for North Dakota swap.
Update 3--Schultz is eligible: It appears that states cannot actually set requirements about who runs for US Senate--only the Constitution can. This means that Schultz is eligible to run for Senate.
On the off-chance that Hoeven does not run, and Schultz does, it would be pretty awesome for Dems and Progs alike.
In the wake of the AIG bonus scandal, Connecticut Senate Chris Dodd is in serious trouble for re-election. In fact, the odds are now that he will lose, as a new Quinnipiac poll shows him trialing Republican challenger Rob Simmons by a whopping 16%:
This simply must be the result of the AIG scandal. Could anything else have possibly hurt Dodd so badly over the past twenty-five days? It is a painful irony that Dodd is the one taking the fall on this, given that he was the Senator trying to write stronger limits on executive compensation into the stimulus package, and it was other members who stripped it out. The Democrats who were in the room know what happened, and might be able to help Dodd if they fess up on who stripped the language.
Otherwise, not to be bleak or anything, it might not be possible for Dodd to recover from a deficit like this. It is true that a Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll taken just before this Quinnipiac poll showed Dodd ahead of Simmons by 5%, so one of those polls (or both) is very, very wrong. So, it is probably best to wait for a third confirming poll to develop a better sense of the campaign.
However, if the Q-poll is correct, than this is better than the advantage Bob Casey started out with against Rick Santorum in 2005, and akin to the advantage Tom Udall started with in New Mexico in 2007. Those campaigns ended up in 17.36% and 22.66% blowouts respectively, as the incumbent and incumbent party never recovered. I'd be hard pressed to find any incumbent Senator that has ever recovered from a 16% deficit. While the so-called "incumbent rule," where challengers gain the overwhelming percentage of undecideds in campaigns with incumbents, does not hold up as well as it used to, it is still safe to say that trailing by 16% with a name ID over 90% is a bad position. What is worse for Dodd in the poll is that he is also losing by 4% to a lesser known Republican State Senator, meaning that much of his deficit is specific to Simmons, who many Connecticut voters seems to consider an acceptable Republican, rather than just to an anti-Dodd sentiment. As such, retaining this seat will probably require either Dodd not seeking re-election, or Simmons being defeated in a Club for Growth fueled primary.
If Dodd were to step aside, it is a lock that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal would be able to retain the seat for Democrats. A February Q-poll recent poll showed Blumenthal defeating Lieberman by 28% in the general election, and with a 79%-12% approval rating. While it would be unfortunate to lose such a rock-solid chance to defeat Lieberman, recent polling from Research 2000 has shown that Ned Lamont is still primed to defeat Lieberman in 2012 if he decides to run again. Of course, while Lamont and Blumenthal remain solid bench candidates for Democrats in the state, Republicans have their own in Governor Jodi Rell. The same poll showing Dodd down 16% shows Rell with a 72% approval rating. All of this guarantees that Connecticut will be a big state, possibly the top state, to watch on the Senate front for the next four years.
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