Just got an e-mail from Rep. Chris Lee, a Republican from the district about 20 minutes from where I grew up (NY-26), and a "No" vote on Frank financial reform bill back in December, in which he polls on financial reform:
Requesting Your Feedback on Financial Reform
As you know, I serve on the House Financial Services Committee. I fought for a seat on the sought-after panel to ensure Western New Yorkers are represented on the front lines of efforts to create jobs, protect taxpayers, aid homeowners and right our economy.
I have worked towards smart financial regulatory reform because the financial futures of too many seniors, working families, and small business owners have been put at risk because of Wall Street excess and Washington irresponsibility. We need regulatory reform that ends the bailouts once and for all, restores market discipline and protects taxpayers.
Congress is now in the last steps of finalizing financial regulatory reform and I need your thoughts and ideas.
Please fill out the survey to the right with your opinions and sign up for my important legislative updates to ensure you receive up-to-date information on financial reform.
With the exception of the VAT question, the polling language actually looks like they're trying to get a fair gauge:
Important Survey
How has the financial crisis affected you and your family? (open response space)
Do you support or oppose taxpayer-funded bailouts and government takeovers of private companies?
Support
Oppose
Unsure
Do you support or oppose Congress passing a law that would create a new federal government agency with new powers to regulate financial institutions?
Support
Oppose
Unsure
The administration is planning to introduce a Value Added Tax (VAT). The VAT is imposed on the value-added at each stage of production, and applies to countless products and services. Do you support the VAT?
Support
Oppose
Unsure
He is also holding a "tele-town hall" tonight via telephone on financial reform. Whether Lee is looking ahead towards supporting a potential conference bill upon which to vote or not is anyone's guess, but it does perhaps portend that Republicans are seeing the political reality on this one. Today has Sens. Chambliss and Voinovich hinting at caving on cloture:
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) conceded that the Republicans risked losing their credibility if they didn't have a deal soon, or agree to open the debate and begin the amendment process.
"To maintain credibility, we have to get a bill or get to work on a bill," he said.
Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) acknowledged he would eventually vote to open debate on the bill. "Get it out there and move on with it," he said.
Update: AP is reporting that in the face of an all-night session tonight, Republicans have reached an agreement to adjust it on the floor, and willing to move forward on the bill, ending the standoff.
Well it's official. Though Jim Martin is a Better Democrat, Chris and I have been pretty much AWOL on this race. That was not by design, we just sort of didn't feel it. Personally, my belief was that Obama wasn't willing to risk his political capital for Martin despite Martin's request, the Senate Democrats had just betrayed on Lieberman, so there was limited upside for progressives. I like Martin a great deal, but Georgia is Georgia, and I couldn't in good conscience ask people to support someone ardently under these conditions. God bless those who can get up for every race where a Democrat is running, and God bless the organizers who went to Georgia to push for Martin, but I've never believed in the 60 vote threshold argument, and I go back and forth on whether to take risks simply to further establishment Democratic power when the existing establishment Democratic power base refuses to take risks themselves.
If there's some lesson from Georgia, the relatively low turnout despite great organizing work suggests whatever changes occurred to the map in November, 2004 have not really shifted voter allegiances in any firm ideological sense yet. While the Democrats as a whole have changed the conversation somewhat, McCain nationally still got 46% of the vote, and that's only 4 points from a majority, or 1 in 25 Americans. And Georgia is still Georgia.
... Martin also was behind in nine consecutive polls. That was a big factor as well. I couldn't ask people to plunk down cash in this economy for such a long-shot.
This is a thread for returns in the Georgia Senate race. Keep in mind that the early returns will probably, just like on November 4th, be from more pro-Chambliss areas.
Update: Martin is underperforming November 4th by about 8%:
I have a spreadsheet comparing results by county between the runoff and the general election. Martin appears to be underperforming by about 8%. It looks like it will be a short night, unfortunately.
Chambliss will win. It will probably be called very soon. Damn. Much now rests on Minnesota, including the Employee Free Choice Act.
Martin doing 3.2% worse than his 48.5% share of the two-way vote on Nov 4th. That means he's at like 45%.
Hopefully a lot of Absentee/Early Voting in the numbers. Again no democratic counties are in - with extremely low turnout, moderate turnout in those counties can win it for Martin.
Update 3: The numbers are really bad, and Martin is underperforming everywhere. Chambliss will win, and I will stop updating.
Never one to let an opportunity to misled the people of Georgia, Saxby Chambliss has requested that he actually be excused from the December 2nd runoff against Jim Martin and just be declared the winner.
It is rumored that in private statements, Saxby has claimed that the knee that allowed him to have six deferments from serving in Vietnam has been acting up again, and not a minute too soon, as the race for what could be the 60th Senate Senate appears closer than ever.
Just in case, his deferment is not granted and Saxby never had a problem in the past, Saxby has started to run a commercial in Georgia focusing on the attacks on 9/11.
Based on all the polling, voter registration, and absentee/early voting data I am seeing, and on conversations with key operatives in the field and other analysts following Senate races, I believe Kentucky and Georgia should be moving up on everyone's radar screens.
STATE BLOGS
