Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 52-48 (assuming no caucus switches)
Senate forecast overview
Dems*
GOP
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
8
12
Sub-total
49
35
Current polling
2.67
13.33
Projected total
52
48
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 16 Senate seats that might switch partisan control Republicans would have to win all 16 of these campaigns to take control of the Senate (Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe," and not listed) Democrats: 2.67 (3)
Republicans: 13.33 (13)
In an attempt to make the Senate forecast a little easier on the eyes, I have produced a chart showing the polling averages only for the current frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican nominations. The full chart, which includes all of the primary campaigns and potential general election matchups, can be found in the extended entry. the methodology and notes to these charts can be found there, too
As disastrous as this looks, it is still possible for Democrats to have a more effective Senate majority in 2011 than they have right now. With filibuster reform pending, a 52-seat Democratic majority might actually be stronger than the current 59-seat incarnation. If the Democratic electoral situation improves, which could happen if the jobless rate declines and if Rasmussen polls become a smaller percentage of the averages, Democrats could keep a 54 or 55 seat majority. If combined with filibuster reform, a majority of that size would make Mary Lanrieu, Ben Nelson, and Joe Lieberman irrelevant.
There is still hope for change yet. More info in the extended entry.
Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 52-48 (assuming no caucus switches)
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Due to upward ticks in Illinois and Indiana, Democrats have slightly improved their overall stand this week. They are still at only 52 seats, though, and not much ahead of 51.
Still haven't hit the bottom, but we are close to it. The situation could still get worse in Wisconsin, Missouri and California, even to the point where control of the Senate becomes a question mark.
Senate forecast overview
Dems*
GOP
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
8
12
Sub-total
49
35
Current polling
2.65
13.35
Projected total
52
48
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 16 Senate seats that might switch partisan control (Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe," and not listed) Democrats: 2.65 (3)
Republicans: 13.35 (13)
Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 52-48 (assuming no caucus switches)
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Evan's Bayh's departure has dropped Democrats down nearly a full seat in the forecast. At this point, Democrats are barely projected to even reach 52 seats.
Republicans are still not in a position to retake the Senate, fortunately. However, as I mentioned earlier in the week, if George Pataki (NY), Rino Rossi (WA) or Tommy Thompson (WI) were to enter the fray, then they would be.
An we are nowhere close to the bottom, either. Even if the senate picture improves a bit for Democrats in 2010, from 2012-2014 Democrats must defend 43 of the 66 Senate seats up for election. Given that Barack Obama will still be President in 2012, and that the economy will still probably stink, Democrats are going to the party in charge that voters blame for at least the 2012 elections (ala Republicans in 2008, even though Democrats controlled the House). In other words, we are not going to hit the bottom until sometime around 2013-2015.
This continued plummet is just so damn frustrating. If we had passed, as Matthew Yglesias wrote, what progressives had wanted:
- A $1.2 trillion stimulus.
- The forcible breakup of large banks.
- Universal health care with a public option linked to Medicare rates.
- An economy-wide cap on carbon emissions, with the permits auctioned.
- Repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.
- A path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
- An exit strategy from Afghanistan.
- An end to special exemption of military spending from fiscal discipline.
- An independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency.
- The Employee Free Choice Act.
If all that had passed, plus D.C. representation, then really it wouldn't be so bad. For one thing, the political situation probably be a bit better (because the economy would be a bit better and activists would be really pumped). For another thing, at that point I would just say fine, you can have the Senate back--we made a big difference that will change the country for a generation.
But none of that list passed. Instead, we are looked at a huge wasted opportunity, and a massive electoral disaster to boot. Great, just great.
The complete Senate forecast chart can be found in the extended entry.
Even before Evan Bayh's retirement, the latest Senate polling showed Democrats teetering between only a 52-48 and 53-47 Senate majority after 2010. With Bayh's retirement, Democrats are now firmly staring at a 52-48 majority.
But, it could get even worse than that for Democrats. Potential Republican Senate recruits in a number of states could even threaten Democratic control of the chamber:
Maryland: If incumbent Barbara Mikulski retires, as a new report is claiming, that would create an open seat in Maryland. Democrats would still be favored to win, but by no means would they be a lock. Mikulski, by contrast, would not have faced any serious opposition.
New York: If former Republican Governor George Pataki were to enter the campaign, he would start 3.5% ahead of Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the Pollster.com trendline.
Washington: If two-time Gubenatorial loser Dino Rossi were to enter the campaign against Patty Murray, he would start the campaign 2% ahead, according to Rasmussen polling.
If Republicans can indeed put up to four more Senate seats into play, they would indeed threaten control of the chamber itself. They have plenty of time to put this together, too, as all four of these states have filing deadlines in June or later.
There is no guarantee at all that we have hit the bottom yet. Even Democratic control of the Senate after 2010 is somewhat in question.
Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.
Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in '08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama.
Bayh actually had a pretty solid lead on his various Republican challengers, so this is something of a surprise. It is also another blow to Democratic Senate hopes in November. Bayh, for all the frustration he caused progressives, was part of a well-known family institution in Indiana, and as such was the best Democratic bet to keep the seat.
It is going to be much more difficult for Democrats to keep this seat, now. Given that Bayh was currently listed at a 98% chance to retain the seat, it will also push the projected Democratic Senate total for 2011 down to only 52 seats.
Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 53-47 (assuming no caucus switches)
Democrats continue their downward spiral in the Senate forecast, reaching their lowest point to date. Right now, Democrats are forecasted to win only 52.63 seats, and there hasn't been upward movement in a while.
One positive sign is that Senate Democrats are increasingly warming to the possibility of destroying the filibuster. Today, after the filibuster of a routine nominee, Senators Leahy and Levin signaled their openness to filibuster reform:
"I'm in my thirty-sixth year. I've never seen anything like it," said Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy (D-Vt.), noting that no previous Republican Senate leader would have allowed his party to filibuster such a routine nomination.
Leahy said that the overuse of filibusters by the GOP was leading Democrats to consider ways to modify it.
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), another long-serving member, said that abuse of the filibuster is unsustainable. "I think it will either fall of its own weight -- it should fall of its own weight -- or it will fall after some massive conflict on the floor, which has happened in the past where there have been rulings from the chair that have led to reform," Levin told the Huffington Post, adding that the filibuster should be restricted to major issues.
Of course, Democrats will have to maintain control of the Senate in order to destroy the filibuster (it can be done on the first say the Senate is in session next year, with only 50 votes plus the Vice-President). As the Senate chart shows in the extended entry, they still have a good chance to do so, barring significant downward movement in the California, Indiana, Missouri and Wisconsin Senate campaigns.
Following up on last night's Illinois primary, Republican nominee Mark Kirk releases an internal poll showing up ahead by 12% against Democratic nominee Alexis Giannoulias:
Magellan Strategies for Mark Kirk (R)
2/2/10; 885 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error Kirk: 47%
Giannoulias: 35%
Now, because this is an internal poll, and was conducted on only one night, many people will be prone to doubt it. However, this is the first poll to be released since the banking scandal around Giannoulias broke, making it entirely possible that the campaign has changed dramtically. Further, Charles Franklin has previous noted that internal polls favor the candidate who purchased them by an average of 5%. Even with that deviation in mind, it would not be surprising in the slightest that Giannoulias has taken a huge hit with the general voting population as a result of the scandal.
While we should wait for more polls to draw any conclusions, this seems to suggest the worst fears of those who thought Giannoulias became a severely damaged candidate from the banking scandal were warranted. Now, Illinois is up from grabs, threatening to become a second Massachusetts.
Also, it had previously escaped my notice that there is an Indiana poll featuring Evan Bayh versus an announced Republican candidate, John Hostettler. That poll shows Bayh leading by only 3%, 44%-41%. No word on what polling will look like with newly announced Republican Dan Coates in the campaign.
The New York campaign is included in this chart, but will not appear in the overall forecast because it is not quite close enough (I only forecast campaigns where the incumbent part leads by less than 18.50%).
Senate forecast overview
Democrats*
Republicans
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
8
12
Sub-total
49
35
Current polling
3.93
12.07
Projected total
53
47
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
This sidecar update drops Democrats down to a projected 53 seats after 2010, equaling their lowest point in the forecast. It also opens the door, ever so slightly, to the prospect of Republicans actually taking control of the Senate after 2010. With only 49 safe Democrats seats, and with big potential Republican recruits still possible in Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson) and New York (George Pataki), Republicans may yet control the Senate in 2011-2012. Even Washington State may yet enter the realm of competitive campaigns, depending on Republican recruiting there.
Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
News
Illinois primary tonight. The Illinois primary is tonight. For our purposes at Open Left, the Democratic Senate primary is the featured matchup. It is likely that either Alexis Giannoulisor David Hoffman will win. Giannoulis has long been the frontrunner, and is perhaps the more lefty candidate. However he has recently been beset with a banking scandal, is spinning his wheels in the polls and, even before the scandal, trailed Hoffman badly among people who know both candidates. As such, Giannoulis's polling advantage is probably a mirage.
Arkansas--Blanche Lincoln is toast. I hope Blanche Lincoln enjoyed her time in the Senate, because it will end in less than a year. New Arkansas polling from PPP put her down 23 points to forthcoming challenger John Boozman. Rasmussen has her down by 19%. At this point, running a primary challenger against Blanche Lincoln has more to do with electability than anything else. Given her deficit, there is no real point or possibility of pushing her to the left. She is done.
Florida--Charlie Crist is also toast. As the charts in the extended entry show, Marco Rubio has taken a substantial, 7.2% lead on Charlie Crist in the Florida Republican primary. It is hard to see any conceivable way that an incumbent comes back from such a deficit, given the extremely pro-Rubio trendlines. This is a political environment where being in prominent, elected office is bad for a campaign.
It is also worth noting that Crist's demise does not help presumptive Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek at all. Meek currently trails Rubio by 11.8%, compared to his 10.2% deficit against Crist. IT is difficult for me to see how Meek overcomes that sort of deficit, given the current political environment and strong, pro-Rubio trendlines. Florida is rapidly moving out of play.
Massachusetts--Scott Brown to be sworn in on February 11th. Scott Brown will be sworn in on Friday, February 11th, at 12:45 p.m. Given that Democrats only reached 60, active, voting Senators on Friday, September 25th, at 3:30 p.m., that means the Democratic supermajority for 138 days, 21 hours, and 15 minutes. Hope they enjoyed it because, as the forecast shows in the extended entry, it won't be coming back anytime soon.
Complete forecast charts can be found in the extended entry.
Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
Even though it is only January, developments in the 2010 Senate picture keep coming in every day. So, it is time for another major update to the Senate picture.
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Today's forecast shows the Democratic situation has improved in a number of states: Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. Much of this was due to new statewide polling from Polimetrix. While those all of those states except Missouri still show significant leans, they have moved back into more competitive territory.
While still grim, the situation is far from hopeless for Democrats. A national swing of 3%--which is very doable given the dominance of Rasmussen in the polls here and if the employment situation improves--would add another 2 seats to their total. Keeping a majority of 56 seats would actually be pretty respectable, given that Republicans haven't had a majority like that since the 1928 elections.
Senate forecast overview
Democrats*
Republicans
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
9
12
Sub-total
50
35
Current polling
3.68
11.32
Projected total
54
46
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 15 currently competitive Senate campaigns ("Competitive" is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates) Democrats: 3.68 (4)
Republicans: 11.32 (11)
The continuing Democratic decline in the Senate forecast led me to start wondering: could Republicans actually retake the Senate in 2010?
While it remains a real longshot, Republicans are only one or two more top recruits from actually putting the Senate in play.
Here are the current Senate matchups that polling shows to be within 18% or closer. For the sake of clarity, only the leaders of the most recent primary poll is included:
That is a pretty bad environment for Democrats. However, even if Republicans win every single one of these campaigns--which right now is not very likely at all--they would still only have 50 seats in the Senate. Since Joe Biden would still be Vice-President, Democrats would retain control even in that nightmare scenario.
So, in order to retake the Senate, Republicans are going to have to put more seats into play. Here are their best options:
* = Poll from February 2009. Political environment has significantly worsened for Democrats since that time.
Before any of the 19 campaigns listed here are decided, Democrats have a 47-34 edge in the Senate. Since Democrats hold the tiebreaker, in order to retake the Senate, Republicans need to win 17 of these campaigns. This means they need at least one of the three recruits in the "potential" section before they even have a shot. And, even then, they would need to shoot the moon.
While it is an extreme longshot that Republicans retake the Senate, that it is even possible at all is quite remarkable. It is a testament to just how negative the political situation has become for Democrats.
Jan 25 Senate update: Democratic loss of 6.01 seats (six)
Change from Jan 21: Democrats down 1.21 seats
Project 2010 Senate: Democrats 53-47 (assuming no caucus switches)
In what is becoming almost a daily routine, today brings even more bad news for Democrats in the 2010 Senate outlook.
In Delaware, Beau Biden has declared he is not running. This means Delaware from a 38% chance for a Democratic victory to, pending the announcement of another Democratic candidate, a 0% chance of victory.
In Indiana, Evan Bayh might actually be in real trouble. A new Rasmussen poll shows Bayh losing to Representative Mike Pence, 47%-44%. The NRSC has been trying to recruit Pence into the campaign, and he would also be a favorite of the teabaggers. This would give Pence a nice combination of grassroots and establishment support, plus a strong poll standing to start with. So, throw another potential Republican pickup opportunity onto the pile:
These two shifts push Democratic chances down further, to a loss of 6.01 seats (from 4.80 seats). This makes a 53-47 Democratic majority currently the most likely outcome based on polling, primary outcomes, and recruiting.
This is turning into a bloodbath. The Senate Forecast methodology can be found here.
Jan 21 Senate update: Democratic loss of 4.80 seats (five)
Change from Jan 20: Democrats down 0.49 seats
Project 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
Adding to the sense of impending collapse, Democrats hit a new low in today's Senate forecast update. For the first time, I am now projecting Democrats to retain only 54 seats in the Senate--and that includes independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders. New polling from California (Field), Missouri (Rasmussen), North Carolina (PPP) and Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) were the contributing factors to this downgrade.
It is worth noting that North Carolina is one of only two Senate campaigns in the country right now (Illinois is the other) where the likely Democratic nominee, Elaine Marshall, is trending up:
This also happens to be only one of two campaigns (Louisiana is the other) where Democrats are seriously looking to knock off a Republican incumbent. I will have to look into this more, but I wonder if competitive seats featuring a Republican incumbent will be easier for Democrats to win than competitive open seats. This thought makes me cautiously optimistic about North Carolina.
The situation continues to deteriorate for Democrats. Even after Massachusetts, Republicans have six pickup opportunities better than the top Democratic pickup chance (Missouri). They have a 7th opportunity, Illinois, equal to Missouri.
So, now that the country and the Democratic Party face major crises, what's the Democratic response? Claim they can't do anything! (emphasis mine)
Dem Talking Points On Brown Victory
MASSACHUSETTS ELECTION MEANS THAT SENATE REPUBLICANS HAVE MORE RESPONSIBILITY TO GOVERN, NOT OBSTRUCT
· We welcome Scott Brown to the Senate.
· While Senator-elect Brown's victory changes the political math in the Senate, it does not change the challenges are country faces or the need to address them.
· We remain committed to strengthening our economy, creating good paying jobs and ensuring all Americans can access affordable health care.
· Senate Republicans have an obligation to the American people to join us in governing our nation through these difficult times and to help clean up the mess they left behind.
· It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to pass legislation on our own. Senate Republicans to come to the table with ideas for improving our nation and not obstructionist tactics.
Massachusetts--Coakley up by 8%: A new poll on the Massachusetts Senate campaign shows Martha Coakley up by 8% over Scott Brown, 49%--41%. This is precisely in line with the overall polling average, which now gives Coakley a lead of 8.2%, down / up from 8.2% yesterday. Coakley's win % remains at 91%.
Just in case there was any doubt, a Coakley loss means that health care reform is over. Expect some Blue Dogs to balk at any bill if Scott Brown wins, and expect some Progressives to balk at voting for the Baucus version of the bill if Brown wins.
Connecticut--Blumenthal dominant, Lieberman despised: Quinnipiac is the latest polling firm to find Richard Blumnthal way, way ahead for Senate in Connecticut. He leads the Demcoratic primary 85%-4%, and the general election by 35% over Rob Simmons and 41% over Linda McMahon. This campaign ended the day that Dodd retired, and Blumenthal entered. I only follow general elections within 18.50%, so unless something changes dramatically, this will not appear on my Senate forecast updates.
Also of note--Quinnipiac provides further evidence that Joe Lieberman suffered real damage from his actions on the health care bill:
Connecticut voters disapprove 54 - 39 percent of the job Sen. Joseph Lieberman is doing, one point off his worst grade ever and a steep drop from a 49 - 44 percent approval November 12. Republicans approve 61 - 35 percent while Democrats disapprove 67 - 27 percent and independent voters disapprove 57 - 36 percent.
It is small comfort, but Joe Lieberman's health care backstab made him very unpopular in Connecticut. This is probably his last term in the Sneate.
Nevada--polling alternatives to Reid: A new PPP poll looks at alternatives to Harry Reid in the Nevada Senate race. The results are not good for Democrats:
PPP tested Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, and Secretary of State Ross Miller as possible alternatives to Reid.
Goodman comes out the best, leading Lowden 42-40 and tied with Tarkanian at 41. 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 21% unfavorable, and he's viewed positively by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
Berkley and Miller both post numbers pretty similar to Reid. Berkley trails Lowden and Tarkanian by identical eight point margins and Miller has a 10 point deficit against Tarkanian and an 11 point one against Lowden.
The problem for Democrats is that Oscar Goodman is already mulling a run for Governor--and as an independent, not as a Democrat. As such, it is highly unlikely that Democrats would ever clear the field for him. and he is, um, colorful. He really is more Governor material than Senate material.
Ignoring the numerous horserace machups in the PPP poll for a moment, here are the favorable ratings of the candidates they polled:
Oscar Goodman (I): Favorable 43%--21% Unfavorable
Danny Tarkanian (R): Favorable 33%--24% Unfavorable
Sue Lowden (R): Favorable 29%--22% Unfavorable
Ross Miller (D): Favorable 18%--16% Unfavorable
Shelley Berkley (D): Favorable 27%--27% Unfavorable
Harry Reid's favorables were not tested, but he does have an approval rating of 36%--58%. This likely makes Shelley Berkley a better bet. Even if she doesn't poll better right now, she has more potential.
Ohio--Brunner closes gap on Fisher: Rasmussen has new numbers on the Ohio Senate race. Like their December numbers, they show Republican frontrunner Rob Portman ahead of both major Democrats. In a reverse of their December numbers, Jennifer Brunner (down 3%) does better than Lee Fisher (down 7%). In December, Brunner trailed by 7%, and Fisher trailed by 2%.
Here are updated victory odds for the Ohio Senate race, looking only at Brunner vs. Portman and Fisher vs. Portman:
The DSCC has threatened to back Fisher over Brunner's lack of funding and her standing in the polls, but this poll might cause them to step back a bit.
In Ohio, the filing deadline for the Democratic primary is February 18th, and the primary is on May 4th. In Nevada, the filing deadline is on March 12th, and the primary is on June 8th. See all filing deadlines and primary dates here.
The big change in this forecast is the inclusion of win percentages for each campaign. The win percentage is based on if the election were held today. The specific percentage is based on my research into the 138 closest statewide campaigns from 2004-2009. It projects the likelihood of a Democratic victory given the current polling average.
In campaigns where the general election matchup has not been decided, the win percentage used in the overall forecast features the two candidates I believe will win their respective primaries. That number can be seen in boldface in the win % column. The number is usually based on polling, but is not entirely based on polling. For example, I believe that Rubio will be the Republican nominee in Florida, even though polling says otherwise right now.
Overall, the inclusion of win percentages has very slightly improved the Democratic position in the forecast. Two weeks ago, I projected Democrats would have 55 Senators in 2011-2012. Today, I project 56.
The net effect of Byron Dorgan's and Chris Dodd's retirements on the Senate picture is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut.
Losing North Dakota In North Dakota, Senator Byron Dorgan's retirement is a real blow. North Dakota is a pretty red state (Cook PVI R+10), the national environment is pretty favorable to Republicans right now, and Republican Governor Jim Hoeven--who is likely to run--is a very popular figure.
This is made worse given that Byron Dorgan is about the most progressive figure we could have hoped for in North Dakota. While Ed Schultz is a clear exception, even he probably can't beat Hoeven this year. Schultz is unlikely to run, anyway.
All of this makes it extremely difficult--almost impossible, really--to hold the seat this year. A right-winger is now very likely to replace a pretty good Senator in Byron Dorgan.
Gaining Connecticut Chris Dodd was all but toast in Connecticut. He trailed well known Republican Bob Simmons by 10%, and also trailed little-known Linda McMahon. It is not impossible that Dodd could have held the seat, especially if, as was seemingly likely, Linda McMahon won the primary. However, his retirement improves Democratic odds to hold the seat dramatically.
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is now the likely Democratic nominee in Connecticut. Blumenthal will announce that he is running at 2:30 p.m., a couple hours after Dodd officially announces his retirement. In the mid-November Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut, Blumenthal sported a gaudy 78%-13% approval disapproval rating. Public Policy Polling, which just completed a Connecticut poll that included numbers on Blumenthal versus Simmons and McMahon, writes "Democrats will keep the Senate seat in Connecticut now."
In the same way that defeating Hoeven is virtually impossible in North Dakota, defeating Blumenthal is virtually impossible in Connecticut.
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For the Senate, the net result is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut. It is not a disastrous trade, though not a great one, either. A loss in Connecticut would have been easier to reverse in 2016 than a loss in North Dakota. Further, as I already mentioned, Byron Dorgan is pretty progressive for a red state like North Dakota. Short of Ed Schultz becoming a Senator, it will be difficult to get a progressive in that seat anytime soon.
Perhaps worst of all, Blumenthal was a lock to defeat Joe Lieberman in 2012. Back in Februrary, Blumethal led Holy Joe 58%-30% in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Now, Democrats are going to have to find someone else to dump Lieberman in 2012. Whoever else they find will simply not have as good a chance as Blumenthal.
On net, the Senate forecast remains the same. Democrats are expected to lose five seats in November, resulting in a 55-45 Senate. The Governor's races will be looked at in another post.
Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 59-28, Linda McMahon 60-28, and Peter Schiff 63-23. It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator.
Barring something truly shocking, Richard Blumenthal will be the next Senator from Connecticut. Now, we just need someone to dump Lieberman in 2012.
As Schultz pointed out on his show last night, North Dakota requires that candidates maintain residency in the state for five years prior to running for the Senate, and he has lived in Minnesota for the past two years -- meaning he is not eligible for the position.
So, this really does appear to be a Connecticut for North Dakota swap.
Update 3--Schultz is eligible: It appears that states cannot actually set requirements about who runs for US Senate--only the Constitution can. This means that Schultz is eligible to run for Senate.
On the off-chance that Hoeven does not run, and Schultz does, it would be pretty awesome for Dems and Progs alike.
Rankings changes:
--Florida moves from "Toss up" to "Solid Republican"
--Kentucky moves from "Toss-up" to "slight lean Republican"
--Missouri moves from "Toss-up" to "slight lean Democrat"
--Ohio moves from "Toss-up" to "slight lean Republican"
--Pennsylvania moves from "Toss-up" to "slight lean Republican"
States with polling changes: Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Commentary: The improvement in the Republican position comes from refinements to the "toss-up" category. Rather than all "toss-ups" being given 50-50 chances of going to one party or another, they have been weighted in favor of the part with the slight advantage. Republicans are now projected to win five of the seven campaigns that were formerly listed as true "toss-ups." This improves their overall standing to a net gain of five seats. I believe this more accurately reflects the current political situation.
Specific percentages for each overall partisan result (a 28% chance for 58 Democratic seats, a 30% chance for 57 Democratic seats, a 25% chance for 56 Semocratic seats, etc) will become available in mid-2010, once more polling is available for each campaign, and once most primary campaigns are decided. The forecast will always use the plurality percentage as the topline result.
Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 1 (One of Kentucky, Missouri or Ohio)
Rankings changes: Illinois moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up; Florida moves from Solid Republican to Toss-up.
States with new polls: Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Commentary: The overall picture actually slightly improves for Democrats. While the negative polling picture in Colorado, Connecticut and Nevada has worsened, those seats were already considered Republican pickups in the forecast. Improvement in Illinois, along with Rubio gaining in the Republican primary in Florida, results in the forecast shifting from a 4-seat loss to a 3-seat loss.
The best way for Democrats to keep improving is to focus on jobs. This is probably why, in a speech before a bunch of CEOs, Rahm Emanuel has declared reducing the deficit is the top economic priority for next year:
Deficit reduction over the long term will be the White House's primary focus next year, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said at the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council conference last month it will be a "key component" of the president's State of the Union address.
"It is foremost on his mind and the mind of the economic team," Emanuel said.
Good idea. The budget deficit is also the top priority of, like, 2% of the nation:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
Economy/Jobs: 47
Health care: 12
War/Peace (general): 4
Poverty/Homelessness: 3
Moral values/Family values: 3
War in Afghanistan: 2
War in Iraq: 2
Budget deficit: 2
Other: 20
Unsure: 5
This poll makes a mockery of the notion that the country is mainly concerned about the deficit right now. When people are not promoted with any choices, only 2% of the country independently lists the deficit as a top priority.
Complete forecast, with all the usual colorful charts, can be found in the extended entry.
Rankings change: As Rubio gains in the Republican primary and as Meek gains on Rubio in the general election, Florida moves ahead of North Carolina and Louisiana.
Commentary: It is worth noting that while the Senate forecast has been stuck on a Republican net gain of four for the entire month of November, it seems more likely that the situation will get worse for Democrats, rather than better. The are two main reasons for this.
First, Democratic-held seats in New York and Wisconsin are currently uncompetitive, but would become lean-Republican if the GOP scored top recruits. This is because Russ Feingold slightly trails Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, and Kirsten Gillibrand signifcantly trails Rudy Giuliani.
Second, as the economy continues to tank, there could be an across the board shift toward Republicans in these seats.
The combination of these two factors makes a ten-seat Republican pickup possible. If Republicans sweep of the races on the Senate chart, plus New York and Wisconsin, the Senate will be 50-50 for 2011-2012. And that is assuming no of the Conservadems switches parties (cough, Lieberman, cough), thereby throwing Senate control to Republicans outright.
Bad times for Democrats electorally. The entire forecast can be found in the extended entry.
