Open Left - Senate Forecast

Senate Outlook, 11/17: Republican net gain of four (again)

Chris Bowers — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Since the last update on November 4th, a few new polls have resulted in some minor alterations to the overall Senate forecast:

California has tightened up a bit, but that is because of polls that fell out of the average, not because of any new polling showing Republican improvement.
Connecticut remains at "solid Republican," but the rise of Linda McMahon in the Republican primary almost moves it to "lean Republican" or even "toss-up." A second poll will be needed for confirmation before a change is made, however.
Delaware moves from "lean Republican" to "toss-up"
Illinois moves from "toss-up" to "lean Republican
Ohio has slipped a bit closer to Republicans.
North Carolina has new polling, but remains in the same position as the last forecast.

All of these changes actually make no change in the overall forecast. Now, as with two weeks ago, the most likley outcome if the election were held tomorrow is a Republican net gain of four seats.

However, the election is not held tomorrow. It will be held in 50 weeks, making this prediction by Nouriel Roubini all the more worrying:

Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.

If that is the case, Democrats will be lucky to only lose four seats.

Complete Senate outlook in the extended entry.
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 4 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (One or two of Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	D Primary	Fisher		+5.5	2
OH	R Primary	Portman		+18.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Ganley	D 8.0	2
OH	Open	Brunner	Ganley	D 5.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman	D 2.3	3
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman	R 0.3	3
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	D 1.5	2
Kentucky
KY	D Primary	Mongiardo		+8.7	3
KY	R Primary		Grayson	+7.3	3
KY	Open	Conway	Paul	D 4.5	4
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Paul	D 0.5	4
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 4.3	4
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 6.8	4
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte*	R 7.3	3
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 11.0	2
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Marshall*	Burr	R 12.0	6
Florida
FL	R Primary		Crist	+20.0	4
FL	Open	Meek*	Rubio	R 8.3	3
FL	Open	Meek*	Crist	R 17.0	3

(Others to keep an eye on: Iowa, Texas)

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Delaware and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Colorado
CO	D Primary	Bennet		+14.0	1
CO	Incumbent	Bennet	Norton*	R 9.0	1
CO	Open	Romanoff	Norton*	R 8.0	1
Nevada
NV	R Primary		Tarkanian	+8.5	2
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian	R 6.6	3
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Lowden	R 6.6	5
Connecticut
CT	R Primary		Simmons	+11.0	1
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons	R 7.5	4
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	McMahon	R 2.0	1
Illinois
IL	D Primary		Giannoulis	+14.0	1
IL	Special	Hoffman	Kirk*	R 10.0	1
IL	Special	Jackson	Kirk*	R 4.0	1
IL	Special	Giannoulis	Kirk*	R 3.5	2
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden**	Castle	R 0.3	3
Pennsylvania
PA	D Primary	Sestak	Specter	R 17.8	5
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 1.8	5
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 1.3	6
Arkansas
AR	R Primary		???	???	0
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Baker	R 0.3	4
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman	D 2.5	4
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Cox	D 7.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 8.0	2
California
CA	R Primary		Fiorina	+0.5	2
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina	D 12.0	2
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	DeVore	D 13.0	2

(Others to keep an eye on: New York, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin)

Methodology:

The forecast is entirely based on polling.
For now, use the simple mean of all polls where the majority of interviews were conducted since August 15th, when the new political equilibrium began.
When available, at least two polls are used for every campaign, even if the majority of their interviews were conducted before August 15th.
As the election draws closer, restrict the timeframe for polls included in the averages. During the final six weeks of an election, use the simple mean from the last 15 days.
Campaigns where one party is ahead by 6.0 or more are considered "solid." Campaigns between 2.7 and 5.9 are considered "leans." Campaigns within 2.6 or less are considered "toss-ups." These categories are subject to refinement based on continued research into past elections.
"Solid" and "lean" seats are considered pickups, while toss-ups are 50-50 for each party. States with mixed results will be considered 50-50 until the primary election. The overall forecast is the most likely seat change based on the current forecast. This is also subject to refinement.
Do not include Zogby Interactive polls and Columbus Dispatch polls, due to their horrendous past performance and questionable methodologies.
Do not include Strategic Vision polls, as it is starting to seem likely those are not real polls.
Include campaign-funded polls. Further, if there is more than one poll from a single organization, include all of them.

The basic idea is to cram as many polls with sound methodologies into the averages as possible, and weight them evenly to include more overall data in the sample. Because voter preferences don't really change that much in high-profile elections, I thought this method might produce a more accurate result through logic of regression to the mean. It seems to work pretty well, as my research has shown so far.

This is different from my 2006 and 2008 methodology in that it includes polls from 15 days out from an election, instead of only 8. Further, campaign funded polls, and multiple polls from a single polling firm, are now included. All of these changes were made to include more polls in the averages, since my previous methodology was about 10-20% less accurate than Pollster.com and fivethrityeight.com. Since they had already raised the bar so high, and since they will probably improve their methodologies for 2010 even more, it was time for Open Left to step it up.

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time

Senate Forecast, November 4th: Republican Net Gain of Four

Chris Bowers — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:00:00 GMT

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 4 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (One or two of Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	D Primary	Fisher		+ 9.0	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman*	D 5.0	2
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman*	D 1.5	2
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	D 1.5	2
Kentucky
KY	D Primary	Mongiardo		+ 8.7	3
KY	R Primary		Grayson	+ 7.3	3
KY	Open	Conway	Paul	D 4.5	4
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Paul	D 0.5	4
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 4.3	4
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 6.8	4
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 7.3	3
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 10.0	1
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Marshall*	Burr	R 11.3	4
Florida
FL	R Primary		Crist	+20.0	4
FL	Open	Meek*	Rubio	R 8.3	3
FL	Open	Meek*	Crist	R 17.0	3

(Others to keep an eye on: Iowa, Texas)

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Colorado
CO	D Primary	Bennet		+ 14.0	1
CO	Incumbent	Bennet	Norton*	R 9.0	1
CO	Open	Romanoff	Norton*	R 8.0	1
Nevada
NV	R Primary		Tarkanian	+ 8.5	2
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian	R 6.6	3
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Lowden	R 6.6	5
Connecticut
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons*	R 6.3	3
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden**	Castle	R 3.0	2
Pennsylvania
PA	D Primary	Sestak	Specter	R 16.7	7
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 2.3	7
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 0.1	8
Illinois
IL	Special	Giannoulis***	Kirk*	R 1.8	4
Arkansas
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Baker	R 0.5	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman	D 3.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Cox	D 7.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 8.0	2
California
CA	R Primary		Fiorina	+ 1.0	1
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina	D 15.0	3
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	DeVore	D 16.7	3

(Others to keep an eye on: New York, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin)

Methodology and notes in the extended entry.
Methodology:

The forecast is entirely based on polling.
For now, use the simple mean of all polls where the majority of interviews were conducted since August 1st, when the new political equilibrium began.
As the election draws closer, restrict the timeframe for polls included in the averages. During the final six weeks of an election, use the simple mean from the last 15 days.
Campaigns where one party is ahead by 6.0 or more are considered "solid." Campaigns between 2.7 and 5.9 are considered "leans." Campaigns within 2.6 or less are considered "toss-ups." These categories are subject to refinement based on continued research into past elections.
"Solid" and "lean" seats are considered pickups, while toss-ups are 50-50 for each party. States with mixed results will be considered 50-50 until the primary election. The overall forecast is the most likely seat change based on the current forecast. This is also subject to refinement.
Do not include Zogby Interactive polls and Columbus Dispatch polls, due to their horrendous past performance and questionable methodologies.
Do not include Strategic Vision polls, as it is starting to seem likely those are not real polls.
Include campaign-funded polls. Further, if there is more than one poll from a single organization, include all of them.

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.

Senate Forecast, 10/6: Republicans Still Rising

Chris Bowers — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:16:03 GMT

October 6th Forecast: Republican Net Gain of 3-5 seats
Would result in Democratic Senate majority of 57-43, 56-44, or 55-45
Previous: Republican Net Gain of 2-3 Seats, September 17th

With Mike Castle set to run for Senate in Delaware, Republicans have rounded out an excellent season of candidate recruiting for them. Their current strength in not only Delaware, but also Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire is the result of top-tier recruiting efforts. By contrast, Democrats have seen their chances in a number of campaigns--Arizona (Napolitano), Kansas (Sebelius), and North Carolina (Cooper)--take serious blows due to failures to snag top tier recruits. The situation in reminiscent of 2006, when Democrats held the upper hand in Senate recruitment, and used it to make significant gains that year.

Here are some possible reasons to be optimistic, despite this forecast:

Rasmussen, which skews significantly toward Republicans, is over-represented in current polling averages.
A shift of 5% across the broad in these campaigns, some of which can already be accounted for in Rasmussen's over-representation in these averages, would bring Democrats even in the forecast.
Republicans are not within 15% of any other potential pickups, so it can't get much worse for Democrats.

For the next year, the two biggest factors in Senate campaigns will be the outcome of primary elections, and the state of the economy. More than ever, it is clear that Democrats will take a real electoral hit if there is not a significant electoral turnaround.

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 3-5 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (Ohio, and possibly Missouri)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	Primary	Fisher		+7.0	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman*	D 6.5	4
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman*	D 3.8	4
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	Even	1
Kentucky
KY	Primary	Mongiardo		+7.5	2
KY	Primary	Grayson		+13.0	2
KY	Open	Conway	Paul	D 4.3	3
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Paul	D 0.7	7
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 4.3	3
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 5.7	3
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 5.8	4
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Marshall	Burr	R 10.5	2
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 12.0	1

Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio. Texas may also have a special election for Kay Bailey Hutchinson's vacated seat.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Colorado
CO	Primary	Bennet		+14.0	1
CO	Incumbent	Bennet	Norton*	R 9.0	1
CO	Open	Romanoff	Norton*	R 8.0	1
Nevada
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian**	R 7.3	3
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Lowden**	R 6.0	4
Connecticut
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons*	R 6.3	3
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden***	Castle	R 5.0	1
Pennsylvania
PA	Primary	Sestak	Specter	R +18.3	4
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 3.5	4
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	Even	4
Illinois
IL	Special	Giannoulis**	Kirk*	R 3.0	1
Arkansas
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Baker	D 0.5	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman	D 3.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Cox	D 7.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 8.0	2

(Barbara Boxer's seat in California, Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, Patty Murray's in Washington, and the open seat special election in Massachusetts are some other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.
***= Not an announced candidate at this time
--Illinois is rated behind Pennsylvania, despite the better polling average for Republicans in Illinois, because there is only one recent poll of Illinois.

The forecast is based entirely on polling conducted after May 31st.

Senate Forecast, September 17th

Chris Bowers — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:30:00 GMT

A wave of new polling over the last week has prompted an update in the Senate forecast. The overall seat change prediction remains the same, with Republicans netting 2-3 seats resulting in a Democratic caucus majority of either 58-42 or 57-43. The two category changes are Arkansas moving from "toss-up" to "lean Dem," and Colorado moving from "lean Dem" to "toss-up."

The recruiting phase of the 2010 elections is nearly over. With the exception of the two special elections (Massachussetts and Texas), the remaining holdout on the recuriting front is Delaware. In the first state, much still hinges on whether Beau Biden and / or Mike Castle ends up running, the major candidates. the latst indications seem to be that Beau Biden is, in fact, running.

Primaries are the next stage in the Senate picture. Here are the best case scenarios for each party:

Democrats: In Delaware, Biden runs, Castle does not; Paul is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is not the Republican nominee in Colorado, Crist is not the Republican nominee in Florida; Hendren is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Democrats net 0-1 seats.

Republicans: In Delaware, Castle runs; Grayson is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is the Republican nominee in Colorado; Crist is the Republican nominee in Florida; Baker or Coleman is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Republicans net 3-4 seats.

Of course, beyond primaries, much still depends on the overall political environment. If a good health care bill passes and a real economic turnaround are on the way by the spring or summer, then Democrats could very well net seats no matter the outcome of primaries. However, it is possible that everything could go wrong for Democrats in terms of primaries, recruiting and the political environment, thus resulting in a Republican net gain of 6-7 seats.

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	Primary	Fisher		+7.0	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman*	D 9.0	3
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman*	D 5.7	3
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	D 4.3	3
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 3.8	4
Kentucky
KY	Primary	Mongiardo		+7.5	2
KY	Primary	Grayson		+13.0	2
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 5.0	2
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Paul	D 3.5	2
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 6.5	2
KY	Open	Conway	Paul	D 4.5	2
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 9.5	2
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Marshall	Burr	R +10.5	2
Texas
TX	Special	None yet	None yet	None yet	1

Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 4-5 (Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden**	Castle**	R 14.5	2
Nevada
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian	R 7.3	3
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Lowden	R 6.0	4
Connecticut
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons*	R 6.3	3
Pennsylvania
PA	Primary	Sestak	Specter	R +21.5	4
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 0.5	4
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 3.8	4
Illinois
IL	Special	Giannoulis***	Kirk*	R 1.5	2
Colorado
CO	Special	Bennet	Norton	R 9.0	1
CO	Special	Romanoff	Norton	R 8.0	1
CO	Special	Bennet	Frazier	D 2.0	2
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 5.0	2
Arkansas
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Baker	D 2.5	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman	D 3.5	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 19.0	1
California
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina*	D 12.5	2
Mass.
MA	Special	None yet	None yet	None yet	1

Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.

The forecast is based entirely on polling.

Senate Forecast, August 27th: Republican Net Gain

Chris Bowers — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 20:30:00 GMT

Open Left's Senate forecast for August shows Republicans picking up seats for the first time since, well, ever. Although the 2-3 seat Republican gain I forecast is a far cry from the 6 seats Arlen Specter thinks Republicans will gain, it still allows us to maintain our inglorious title as the most favorable to Republicans among all forecasters.

While I must sound like a very boring broken record at this point, almost everything still depends on the state of the economy. There isn't a huge amount of recruiting left to be done, so changes in the campaigns from this point forward will largely depend on the national political environment. If the economy starts to improve in the Spring of 2010, then Democrats should at least draw even, and possibly even gain seats. If the economy does not improve, it is possible Republicans could ring up a 5-7 seat gain.

The fate of health care reform represents another major factor. If health care reform either fails altogether, or only an extremely weak reform is passed, expect Democratic turnout to drop sharply. This happened in 1994, too. New Jersey and Virginia should make good test cases for just how serious the threat of lowered Democratic turnout actually is.

This forecast is based entirely on polling. In the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, simple poll averaging proved as effective in predicting the final margin as any other methodology (as long as there were two or more polls in the final week, and as long as the outcome wasn't a foregone conclusion of 20% or more).

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	Primary	Fisher		+4.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman	D 9.0	3
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman	D 5.3	3
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	D 4.3	3
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 2.5	2
Kentucky
KY	Primary	Mongiardo		+11.5	2
KY	Primary	Grayson		+11.0	1
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 1.5	2
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 5.0	2
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 9.5	2

Also of note...

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Generic	Burr	R +7.0	1
Texas
TX	Special	None yet	None yet	None yet	1

Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 4-5 (Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden**	Castle**	R 14.5	2
Nevada
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian***	R 11.0	1
Connecticut
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons*	R 9.0	2
Pennsylvania
PA	Primary	Sestak	Specter	R +20.0	4
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	R 2.0	3
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 3.7	3
Illinois
IL	Special	Giannoulis**	Kirk*	R 1.5	2
Arkansas
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman***	R 1.0	1
Colorado
CO	Special	Bennet	Frazier	D 4.5	2
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 5.0	2
California
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina*	D 12.5	2

Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces competitive primary, but general election polling not available for other candidates.)

Arlen Specter's Senate Forecast

Chris Bowers — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:45:00 GMT

I work for Joe Sestak--come and join the campaign!

Arlen Specter thinks that Democrats are going to lose huge in the 2010 midterm elections (emphasis mine):

Political analysts predict Democrats will lose six Senate and 20 House seats next year, said Specter. He said likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has raised a lot of money for the Senate campaign.

"It's going to be a tough general election," Specter said.

Lose six seats in the Senate? What political analysts are saying that? Here are the four major election forecasters who have published complete Senate analyses for August. On average, they actually show more Republican-held seats threatened than Democratic-held seats:

Cook: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans, 5 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
CQ Politics: 8 Republican-held toss-ups and leans; 5 Democratic-held toss-ups and leans
Rothenberg: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans; only 4 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
538: 5 Republican held seats among top 12 campaigns; 7 Democratic-held seats among top 12 campaigns

Rather than predicting a Republican gain of six seats, as per Arlen Specter, these four forecasters average slightly more Republican-held Senate (6) seats as potential flips than Democratic-held seats (5).

Thanks for the pep-talk Arlen. "The party is screwed in 2010, so choose me or be even more screwed." It is always fun when party higher-ups decide to become concern-troll, Village pundits in a attempt to cajole Democrats into accepting the status-quo of powerful institutions.

While it isn't clear where Arlen Specter is getting his political analysis, one possibility is that he is channeling an advertisement that he cut for a Republican congressional candidate back in 2008:

"I am very concerned about one-party rule in Washington," Specter says in the spot. "That's why it's so important to elect Chris Hackett to Congress. With Chris Hackett, we'll have a check against massive Democratic control. And that's vital for our country."

Perhaps Specter talking about substantial Democratic losses in the Senate is simply his fear of "massive Democratic control" coming to the surface again.

2010 Senate Outlook: Republicans Draw Even

Chris Bowers — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:15:00 GMT

While glimpsing at my blackberry during vacation, I was eager to put up a new Senate forecast upon arriving back in Philadelphia. Senate forecasting isn't the biggest news right now, but all of the developments over the past three weeks made this an essential piece of housekeeping.

The current forecast shows no net partisan change in the Senate, as Democratic gains in Ohio and Missouri are offset by losses in Connecticut and Delaware. Further, the number of close campaigns is increasing. As the chart below shows, about a handful of campaigns on both sides could also potentially switch. Due significantly to better candidate recruiting, Republicans have a slight advantage in the number of close, potential pickups they have created.

The complete forecast, including colorful charts, more causes for Republican improvement, and implications for ongoing legislative fights, can be found in the extended entry.
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: No net partisan seat change
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	Primary	Fisher		+4.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman	D 9.0	3
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman	D 5.3	3
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt	D 4.3	3
Kentucky
KY	Primary	Mongiardo		+15.0	1
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	D 1.5	2
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 2.5	2
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 2.5	2
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 9.5	2

Also of note...

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Generic	Burr	D +3.0	1
Texas
TX	Special	None yet	None yet	None yet	1

Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware and Connecticut)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden*	Castle*	R 14.5	2
Connecticut
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons*	R 9.0	2
Illinois
IL	Special	Giannoulis*	Kirk*	D 4.0	2
California
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina**	D 4.0	1
Colorado
CO	Special	Bennet	Frazier	D 4.0	1
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 6.0	1
Pennsylvania
PA	Primary	Specter		+23.7	3
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 7.0	3
PA	Incumbent	Sestak	Toomey	D 1.0	1
Arkansas**
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Primary	D 9.5	1

Also of note...

State	Type	Democrat	Challenger	Margin	#Polls
New York
NY	Primary	Gillibrand	Maloney	M +3.3	4
Nevada
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Re-elect	R 10.0	1

Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced canddiate at this time
***= There is no polling in Arkansas for Lincoln against any of the numerous announced Republican candidates. So, polling on Lincoln vs. other candidates, who are probably equally unknown, is listed instead.)

It has been a long time--over four years--since I put together an electoral forecast of any sort that did not predict Democratic gains. This is partially due to Democrats now controlling large majorities, and thus having fewer potential targets. As I mentioned above, a Republican advantage in recruiting is another factor. States like Arizona (no Napolitano), Connecticut (Simmons), Florida (Crist), Illinois (no Madigan), Kansas (no Sebelius), Kentucky (no Bunning), New Hampshire (Ayotte) and North Carolina (no Cooper) are all examples of the Republican recruiting edge to date.

It is also a sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Democrats somewhat. As the economy continues to worsen, expect the Republican position to continue to improve, albeit slowly. Given that Democrats are easily scared into voting like conservatives, this is why Republicans want to delay major legislation as long as possible. Come September or October, Republicans might be forecast to pick up a seat or two. This is will likely make good legislation even more difficult to pass.

If Democrats lose any seats at all in 2010, expect an even more conservative trifecta running D.C. than we have seen so far in 2009.

2010 Senate Picture, July 6th

Chris Bowers — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:31:55 GMT

As of today, we are more than one-third of the way between the 2008 and 2010 general elections. In order or this arbitrary milestone, here is a look at the 2010 Senate picture.

The charts have been expanded to account for competitive primaries, and hopefully to provide greater clarity. The overall forecast, showing a net Democratic pickup of one seat, has not changed. The methodology, focusing only on polls, has also not changed.

2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri and Ohio, plus either Kentucky or New Hampshire)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	Primary	Fisher		+4.0	1
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman	D 10.0	2
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman	D 8.0	2
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt	D 4.3	3
MO	Open	Carnahan	Steelman*	D 10.3	3
Kentucky
KY	Primary	Mongiardo		+15.0	1
KY	Incumbent	Conway	Bunning	D 2.5	2
KY	Incumbent	Mongiardo	Bunning	D 1.5	2
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson*	D 1.5	2
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson*	R 2.5	2
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes**	Bass*	D 2.5	2
NH	Open	Hodes**	Ayotte*	R 4.0	1
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 7.0	1
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Generic	Burr	D +3.0	1

Keep an eye on Florida as well, as Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware and Connecticut)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden*	Castle*	R 14.5	2
Connecticut
CT	Primary	Dodd		+20.0	1
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Foley	R 8.0	1
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Simmons	R 3.3	3
Colorado
CO	Special	Bennet	Frazier	D 4.0	1
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 6.0	1
Pennsylvania***
PA	Primary	Specter		+22.3	4
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 10.0	2
PA	Incumbent	Sestak	Toomey	D 6.0	1
Arkansas****
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Primary	D 9.5	1
New York
NY	Primary	Maloney		+2.3	3
NY	Special	Maloney	King*	D 16.0	1
NY	Special	Gillibrand	King*	D 14.5	2
NY	Special	Gillibrand	Pataki*	D 2.0	2
Illinois
IL	Special	Madigan*	Kirk*	D 16.0	1
IL	Special	Giannoulis*	Kirk*	D 4.0	2
IL	Special	Giannoulis*	Roskam*	D 13.0	1
Nevada
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Re-elect	R 7.0	1

(Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Not certian to enter campaign yet
**= Faces primary, but no polling for challenger
***= All Pennsylvania polling taken May 15th or later
****= There is no polling in Arkansas for Lincoln against any of the three announced Republican candidates. So, polling on Lincoln vs. other candidates, who are probably equally unknown, is listed instead.)

North Carolina and Nevada are listed at the bottom of their respective tables because, while the incumbents in those states appear vulnerable, no potential candidates are polling particularly close at this time.

Senate 2010 Update: Democrats Still Look Strong

Chris Bowers — Wed, 20 May 2009 21:12:12 GMT

This week's Senate forecast update is the best one for Republicans all year. However, that isn't saying much, since I currently forecast Democrats to make a net a net gain of one seat, for an overall total of 61. Further, that is the forecast even if all of Representative Mike Castle, former Governor George Pataki and former Senator Jon Sununu all run in Delaware, New York, and New Hampshire respectively. If all three were to decline, then Democrats would be forecast to net 3-5 seats, for an overall total of 63-65.

In short, even after Charlie Crist announced in Florida, and Roy Cooper declined to run in North Carolina, Democrats still have the upper hand in the 2010 Senate picture. That might change, but only if Republicans can not only score the recruits I listed above, but also find top challengers in Colorado and Nevada. One other worrying point could be Arkansas, that is if you actually care whether Blanche Lincoln wins or not (I don't).

Here is the detailed forecast:

2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri and Ohio, plus either Kentucky or New Hampshire)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
OH	Open	Primary	Portman*	D 10.0	R 6.5	2
MO	Open	Carnahan	Primary	D 10.3	D 4.3	3
NH	Open	Hodes*	Hypothetical	D 3.0	D 0.5	1 / 2
KY	Incumbent	Primary	Primary	D 2.5	R 2.5	2
LA	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Vitter	R 9.0	R 9.0	1
NC	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Burr	R 8.0	R 19.0	1
AK	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Murkowski	R 8.0	R 24.0	1

Others to watch: Florida (if Crist faces trouble in the primary) and Oklahoma (if Coburn retires)

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware, plus either Connecticut or New York)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
DE	Special	Hypothetical	Hypothetical	R 14.5	R 14.5	2
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Primary	D 10.0	R 4.0	3
NY	Special	Gillibrand*	Hypothetical	D 11.5	R 4.0	2
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 6.0	D 6.0	1
NV	Incumbent	Reid*	Hypothetical	D 6.0	D 17.0	1
IL	Special	Hyopthetical	Hypothetical	D 16.0	D 1.0	1 / 2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 11.0**	D 8.0**	1
PA	Incumbent	Specter*	Toomey	D 16.7	D 16.7	3

(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail. Pennsylvania included due to expected popular demand.

*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite against other announced candidates
** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.)

Notes on how to read the chart in the extended entry.
How to read this chart:

In the "Type" column, "Special" refers to an election due to a Senate appointment. In the two candidate columns.
"Hypothetical" means there are no officially announced candidates for the party in the seat.
When there are official candidates who have been polled, no unannounced candidates are considered.
In the two polling columns, "High Margin" is the polling average for the best general election matchup for Democrats according to 2009 polling, and "Low Margin" is the worst average.
A dark blue color refers to a polling average that favors Democrats by 7.0% or more. Light blue favors Democrats by 2.7% to 6.9%. Yellow is between 2.6% for either party. Light red and dark red favors Republicans by the same margins as light and dark blue favor Democrats.
Backlashes appear in the "# of polls column" in states where a different number of polls were used in the "high margin" and "low margin" averages."
Even if it means taking two polls from the same polling outfit, the two most recent polls for each campaign are used, if there are two polls for the race. I have tried to remove all pre-March polls in this forecast.

Senate 2010 Update: Crist Keeps Florida Republican

Chris Bowers — Mon, 11 May 2009 16:00:00 GMT

Florida Governor Charlie Crist will run for Senate. This is very disappointing, as it moves Florida from one of the best potential pickups for Democrats to a Republican lock. Florida polling in the Republican primary shows Crist up 57%-11%, and in the general election by 49%-28% over likely Democratic nominee, Representative Kendrick Meek.

One ray of hope in the Florida Senate campaign is that the poll showing Charlie Crist ahead by 21% also showed him with 88% name recognition, compared to only 25% for Meek. It is possible that as Meek's numbers rise as he closes the name ID gap. Unfortunately, it is also possible that Crist will have much more money than Meek, and be able to define him in any potential advertising war.

Here is the latest Senate chart. With Florida removed from the equation, Democrats are now projected to gain only one seat:

2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri, plus two of Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
MO	Open	Carnahan	Primary	D 10.5	D 2.0	2
OH	Open	Primary	Portman*	D 3.0	R 1.5	2
NH	Open	Hodes*	Hypothetical	D 3.0	D 1.0	1 / 3
KY	Open	Primary	Grayson	D 1.5	R 2.5	2
NC	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Burr	D 1.7	R 8.0	3 / 1
LA	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Vitter	R 9.0	R 9.0	1
AK	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Murkowski	R 8.0	R 24.0	1

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware, plus either Connecticut or New York)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
DE	Special	Hypothetical	Hypothetical	R 14.5	R 14.5	2
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Primary	D 8.5	R 4.5	2
NY	Special	Gillibrand*	Hypothetical	D 15.3	R 4.0	4 / 2
CO	Special	Bennet	Buck	D 6.0	D 6.0	1
NV	Incumbent	Reid*	Hypothetical	D 6.0	D 17.0	1
IL	Special	Hyopthetical	Hypothetical	D 16.0	D 1.0	1 / 2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 11.0**	D 8.0**	1
PA	Incumbent	Specter*	Toomey	D 16.3	D 16.3	3

(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail. Pennsylvania included due to expected popular demand.

*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite against other announced candidates

** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.)

The only Republican incumbent who appears to be threatened is Richard Burr in North Carolina (although it is possible that David Vitter might find himself vulnerable, too). Depending on recruiting, Republicans might end up with more legitimate pickup opportunities than Democrats in 2010. Should Republicans score a "moderate" wave of former Governor George Pataki in New York, Representative (and former Governor) Mike Castle in Delaware, Representative Mark Kirk in Illinois (although that looks increasingly unlikely), and if former Representative Rob Simmons in Connecticut (he faces a primary and hasn't raised any money), then they will be projected to win seats in 2010.

Perhaps we are running up against the limits of how many Senate seats one party can have these days. Notes on how to read the chart in the extended entry.
How to read this chart:

In the "Type" column, "Special" refers to an election due to a Senate appointment. In the two candidate columns.
"Hypothetical" means there are no officially announced candidates for the party in the seat.
When there are official candidates who have been polled, no unannounced candidates are considered.
In the two polling columns, "High Margin" is the polling average for the best general election matchup for Democrats according to 2009 polling, and "Low Margin" is the worst average.
A dark blue color refers to a polling average that favors Democrats by 7.0% or more. Light blue favors Democrats by 2.7% to 6.9%. Yellow is between 2.6% for either party. Light red and dark red favors Republicans by the same margins as light and dark blue favor Democrats.
Backlashes appear in the "# of polls column" in states where a different number of polls were used in the "high margin" and "low margin" averages."

Senate 2010: May 6th Update

Chris Bowers — Wed, 06 May 2009 21:29:50 GMT

Quite a bit has happened to the Senate picture since the most recent update back on April 13th. Here is the latest forecast, based entirely on polling information. The chart could change quite a bit depending on which candidates end up running:

2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of two seats, for a total of 62
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 4 (Florida and Missouri, plus two of Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
MO	Open	Carnahan	Primary	D 9.5	D 2.0	2
FL	Open	Primary	Rubio*	D 9.0	Even	1
OH	Open	Primary	Portman*	D 4.5	Even	2
NH	Open	Hodes*	Hypothetical	D 3.0	D 1.0	1 / 3
KY	Open	Primary	Grayson	D 1.5	R 2.5	2
NC	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Burr	D 1.7	R 8.0	3 / 1
LA	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Vitter	R 9.0	R 9.0	1
AK	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Murkowski	R 8.0	R 24.0	1

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware, plus either Connecticut or New York)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
DE	Special	Hypothetical	Hypothetical	R 14.5	R 14.5	2
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Primary	D 8.5	R 4.5	2
NY	Special	Gillibrand	Hypothetical	D 11.5	R 4.0	2
CO	Special	Bennet	Primary	D 6.0	D 5.0	1
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Hypothetical	D 6.0	D 6.0	1
IL	Special	Hyopthetical	Hypothetical	D 16.0	D 1.0	1 / 2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 11.0**	D 8.0**	1
PA***	Incumbent	Specter*	Toomey	D 11.7	D 11.7	3

(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail.

*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite other other announced candidates

** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.
*** = Pennsylvania included despite not meeting the "less single-digit incumbent party poll lead" requirement due to the high level of interest and state of flux in the election there.

Details on how to read other aspects of the chart can be found in the extended entry.)

Key changes since the last forecast in the extended entry.
Quite a bit has happened since mid-April:

Kentucky: In Kentucky, Jim Bunning will almost certainly retire, making for another open seat campaign. Trey Grayson will be the likely Republican nominee. The Democratic primary remains contested.
New York: The immediate post-nomination polls for January have been dropped from the averages, resulting in greater apparent vulnerability for Kirsten Gillibrand. Polling shows her vulnerable against former Governor George Pataki, but not against current Republican Representative Peter King. Should Pataki decline to run, the state will move out of competitive territory. Also, Gillibrand might not be the nominee, but no candidates have announced they are challenging her at this time.,
Pennsylvania: Just in case you hasn't hear, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania switched parties. Currently, there is no polling against his only announced Democratic opponent (Joe Torsella), so I list him as the likely primary winner. Also, his only announced Republican opponent is Pat Toomey, so only Specter vs. Toomey polling is listed. Much depends on whether former Republican Governor Tom Ridge and / or current Democratic Representative Joe Sestak enter the campaign. The chart will be updated in the event that either officially enter the fray.

Recruitment remains the issue of the day. Outcomes in Delaware (if current Republican Representative Mike Castle runs), Florida (if Republican Governor Charlie Crist runs), New Hampshire (if former Republican Senator John Sununu runs), New York (if former Republican Governor George Pataki runs), North Carolina (if Democratic attorney General Roy Cooper runs), and Pennsylvania (if either former Republican Governor Tom Ridge or current Democratic Representative Joe Sestak run), will all be heavily influenced by recruiting.

The forecast of at least six states largely dependant upon candidate recruitment. In five of those cases (Delaware, Florida, New Hampshire, New York and Pennsylvania), whether or not the state will be competitive depends primarily on Republican recruitment. This means the 2010 Senate campaigns are, for now, largely dependant on NRSC chairman Jon Cornyn's efforts to bring potential top-tier candidates into the campaign. If he fails in every case, then the forecast from a Democratic pickup of two seats to a Democratic pickup of 3-5 seats. If he succeeds in all five cases, then the forecast would show a Democratic gain of only 1 seat.

How to read this chart:

In the "Type" column, "Special" refers to an election due to a Senate appointment. In the two candidate columns.
"Hypothetical" means there are no officially announced candidates for the party in the seat.
When there are official candidates who have been polled, no unannounced candidates are considered.
In the two polling columns, "High Margin" is the polling average for the best general election matchup for Democrats according to 2009 polling, and "Low Margin" is the worst.
A dark blue color refers to a polling average that favors Democrats by 7.0% or more. Light blue favors Democrats by 2.7% to 6.9%. Yellow is between 2.6% for either party. Light red and dark red favors Republicans by the same margins as light and dark blue favor Democrats.
Backlashes appear in the "# of polls column" in states where a different number of polls were used in the "high margin" and "low margin" averages."

2010 Senate Outlook, Clarified and Classified

Chris Bowers — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:33:18 GMT

Five days ago, Open Left published its first Senate outlook for 2010. As with the 2006 and 2008 forecasts, it is entirely based upon polling. Since that forecast, I have been made aware of additional polling from Delaware, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

In light of this new information, I have worked to clean up the forecast, and consolidate its information into a single, quick reference, easy-to-read (hopefully) chart.

2010 Senate Outlook
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 5 (Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire, plus two of Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
MO	Open	Carnahan	Primary	D 9.5	D 2.0	2
FL	Open	Primary	Rubio*	D 9.0	Even	1
NH	Open	Hodes*	Hypothetical	D 4.0	D 3.0	2 / 1
KY	Incumbent	Primary	Bunning	D 2.5	D 1.5	2
OH	Open	Primary	Portman*	D 3.0	R 0.5	2
PA	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Primary	D 8.0	R 14.0	1
NC	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Burr	D 2.0	R 8.0	3 / 1
LA	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Vitter	R 9.0	R 9.0	1
AK	Incumbent	Hypothetical	Murkowski	R 8.0	R 24.0	1

* = Faces primary, but clear frontrunner

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware, plus either Colorado or Connecticut)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	High Margin	Low Margin	#Polls
DE	Special	Hypothetical	Hypothetical	R 8.0	R 8.0	1
CT	Incumbent	Dodd	Primary	D 8.5	R 4.5	2
CO	Special	Bennet	Hypothetical	D 9.0	R 3.0	1
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Hypothetical	D 6.0	D 6.0	1
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hypothetical	D 11.0	D 8.0	1
IL	Special	Hyopthetical	Hypothetical	D 13.0	D 6.0	1
NY	Special	Gillibrand	Hypothetical	D 17.7	D 2.0	3 / 2

(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail. Details on how to read the chart can be found in the extended entry.)

Now, an electoral forecast, while interesting in and of itself, is not sufficient for the purposes of creating a more progressive governing majority. As such, for the 2010 electoral cycle, the Senate forecast will be combined with a progressive legislative forecast. That is, Democratic candidates will be rated not only by the closeness of their election, but also by what pieces of legislation their election would help produce.

Over the next two years, our electoral efforts should not be based on simply trying to elect as many Democrats as possible, but on trying to elect the right amount of a certain type of Democrat who will pass progressive legislation that failed during 2009 and 2010. So far in 2009, two progressive priorities have been all but defeated: bankruptcy "cramdown" legislation (passed by the House, but it will not be meaningfully addressed by the Senate) and the Employee Free Choice Act (sure-fire in the House, but at least two votes short in the Senate).

This means, for example, that Blanche Lincoln's seat in Arkansas is not a priority at all, given that she is opposed to both pieces of legislation. Whether she is re-elected or defeated, there would be no forward movement in the degree and amount of progressive legislation that is passed (as long as there is no overall, net decline in the number of Democrats in the Senate.) By contrast, the Florida and New Hampshire Senate campaigns, featuring Representatives Kendrick Meek and Paul Hodes, would be top priorities. This is because both have already voted in favor of cramdown and EFCA. Each of those two pieces of legislation would receive two more votes in the Senate with the election of those two members.

With this in mind, the next step in the Senate outlook / forecast is to develop a comprehensive list of where all Democratic candidates for the campaigns listed in these charts stand on progressive legislation that was, or will be, defeated in the 2009-2010 legislative calendar. Over the coming weeks and months, I will be slowly adding information on where all Democratic Senate candidates stand on defeated progressive legislation. With such a list, we will be able to track exactly which seats we need to win in order to pass better legislation, and thus better understand where we should target our electoral efforts. This will be far more useful than a mere Senate forecast because, in the end, this isn't about electing more Democrats, but about passing better legislation. We need to know where to spend resources in order to pass our legislative priorities.

How to read the charts can be found in the extended entry. Any suggestions on how to make the chart more comprehensible are welcomed in the comments.
How to read this chart:

In the "Type" column, "Special" refers to an election due to a Senate appointment. In the two candidate columns.
"Hypothetical" means there are no officially announced candidates for the party in the seat.
When there are official candidates who have been polled, no unannounced candidates are considered.
In the two polling columns, "High Margin" is the polling average for the best general election matchup for Democrats according to 2009 polling, and "Low Margin" is the worst.
A dark blue color refers to a polling average that favors Democrats by 7.0% or more. Light blue favors Democrats by 2.7% to 6.9%. Yellow is between 2.6% for either party. Light red and dark red favors Republicans by the same margins as light and dark blue favor Democrats.
Backlashes appear in the "# of polls column" in states where a different number of polls were used in the "high margin" and "low margin" averages."

Bowers Vs. 538 Vs. Pollster, Part 2

Chris Bowers — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:30:54 GMT

Read Part One here

Two days, ago, I compared the average rate of error from final predictions to final election results for Pollster.com, fivethirtyeight.com, and my own predictions. Looking at 65 elections on November 4th, 2008, where all three sites made public final predictions / estimates, it turned out that Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com were equally accurate, and that I lagged about 8-10% behind.

While I was a bit further behind, I still wanted to see where I was less accurate. It turns out that when blowouts (final margin over 20%) and rarely polled elections (only one poll in the final eight days) are removed, my simple, rudimentary methodology was actually the equal of Pollster and 538. As long as there were at least two polls in the final eight days, simple poll averaging was just as good at predicting election outcomes as any other methodology around. Data in the extended entry.
First, I took the data from the previous analysis of error rates, and sorted it according to how close each of the 65 campaigns were. You can see this data here:

Election prediction error rates, sorted by final margin (PDF)

The results showed that all methods were better at predicting closer elections, no doubt because closer elections both receive more attention from pollsters and because the electorate is also paying more attention, thus making their responses to polls more informed and stable. Here is the median and mean error, sorted by final margin:

Median Error

Final Margin	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
5.00 or less	1.33	1.12	1.33	10
5.01 to 10.00	1.63	1.50	2.04	13
10.01 to 15.00	2.65	2.22	2.12	11
15.01 to 20.00	3.46	2.71	2.29	9
20.00 or less	2.08	1.65	1.90	43
20.01 to 25.00	5.00	3.43	5.03	7
25.01 to 30.00	2.34	3.27	4.08	8
30.01 or more	7.24	5.59	6.89	7
All	2.55	2.23	2.23	65

Mean Error

Final Margin	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
5.00 or less	2.32	1.90	1.43	10
5.01 to 10.00	2.60	2.01	2.36	13
10.01 to 15.00	2.48	2.43	2.45	11
15.01 to 20.00	3.52	3.40	3.36	9
20.00 or less	2.70	2.38	2.38	43
20.01 to 25.00	5.32	3.59	3.64	7
25.01 to 30.00	4.24	4.58	4.07	8
30.01 or more	10.36	6.98	8.12	7
All	3.99	3.28	3.34	65

Generally speaking, the rate of error for all campaigns increases as the competitiveness of the campaign decreases. In the case of my methodology, there is a severe drop once the final margin of the campaign passes 20%.

However, look at what happens when the elections with only a single poll in the final week are removed from the averages:

Prediction error rates, 2 or more polls in final week, 20.00% or smaller final margin

Average	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
Median	1.62	1.65	1.74	37
Mean	2.55	2.44	2.29	37

While my method lags behind the equally capable Pollster.com and 538.com in the overall numbers, in these thirty-seven cases, there is no difference in the performance of the three methodologies. This is significant, because these happen to be the 37 cases where polling based forecasters are both needed and useful. Do people really need election forecasters to tell them what will happen when polls show the margin of the campaign to be greater than 20%? The outcome is obvious in those cases. Similarly, are election forecasters even useful for elections where either zero or one poll was conducted during the final week? Not really, as you can see from the average prediction error of single-final-week-poll campaigns:

Prediction error rates, all single-final-week-poll campaigns

Average	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
Median	3.58	2.82	3.39	21
Mean	6.01	4.45	4.53	21

For these single-final-week poll campaigns, the mean error is roughly the same or even greater than, the margin of error in a single poll. That isn't very useful. The median error is a bit better, but still pretty poor compared to multiple-final-week-poll campaigns. All forecasters perform more than a full percentage point worse in that category, and close to 2 percentage points worse.

So, while my method is worse than Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight's for campaigns with either one or zero polls during the final week, and for blowout campaigns, it is equal to those methods for all other types of election forecasting. Given that over 90% of all closely watched campaigns are neither single-poll or blowout affairs, I think that is pretty good. Perhaps it isn't surprising either since, in the end, our forecasts are all dependant on the same polls. Election forecasters willing to look only at the data and set aside their own preconceptions will all flourish in high-polling, high-attention environments.

Bowers Vs. 538 Vs. Pollster.com (Updated)

Chris Bowers — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:56:34 GMT

Now that all of the counting is finally done for the 2008 elections, it is possible to compare how different election forecasters fared. The three I have long been most interested in comparing are:

My method, which takes the simple mean of all non-campaign funded, telephone polls that were conducted entirely within the final eight days of a campaign. My rationale for this method is described here: No Special Sauce Needed For Electoral Projections. This is an intentionally rudimentary "election forecasting for dummies" method that anyone can reproduce.
Pollster.com, which uses all polls ever conducted in a state, and creates a regression line based on those polls. This is the ultimate "don't cherry pick polls and don't argue with polls" method. It was developed by a professional pollster and a political scientist, and is explained here.
Fivethirtyeight.com, whose complicated methodology is essentially the opposite of Pollster.com's: adjust every poll based on demographics, previous house effects, and previous error rate.

How did these three distinct prediction methods fare against each other? Results in the extended entry.
To compare the three methodologies, I looked at the 65 Presidential and Senatorial campaigns that ended on November 4th, 2008, for which at least one non-campaign funded telephone poll was in the field entirely from October 27th through November 3rd. This was done to create an apples to apples to apples comparison where, for all 65 campaigns, there are either publicly available predictions or publicly reproducible predictions (Pollster.com and Bowers don't work when there are no polls, and 538 didn't forecast House or Governor campaigns). The final predicted margin was used for all campaigns to maintain the apples to apples to apples comparison, since not every website predicted the final percentage for each candidate in every campaign. The mean and median errors were calculated for each method, and results were also sorted based on how many polls were available for each campaign. That last bit was done to try and answer the age-old question, "can polls be combined to create more accurate forecasts?"

The data for this comparison can be found here:

Prediction error rates: Bowers vs. 538 vs. Pollster.com (PDF)

Here were the results:

Median Error

# of Polls	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
1 or more	2.55	2.23	2.23	65
2 or more	2.26	2.17	2.09	44
3 or more	2.43	1.61	2.05	31
4 or more	1.57	1.34	1.68	24
5 or more	1.37	1.15	1.43	17
6 or more	1.26	1.12	1.50	14
7 or more	0.98	1.12	1.17	8

Using the median prediction error, all methods were very accurate. Once four or more polls are available, all methods can predict the final margin within less than 1.7%, plus or minus, most of the time.

Mean Error

# of Polls	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
1 or more	3.99	3.28	3.34	65
2 or more	3.03	2.72	2.77	44
3 or more	2.97	2.41	2.37	31
4 or more	2.00	1.69	1.92	24
5 or more	1.55	1.37	1.65	17
6 or more	1.44	1.21	1.69	14
7 or more	1.32	1.09	1.40	8

Overall error is noticeably higher using the mean, mainly due to occasional extreme outliers, such as a bad Research 2000 poll of the Wyoming Senate races (check the data to see just how bad). Once again, error decreases in direct correlation with an increase in the number of polls. Also, once again, when four or more polls enter the equation, error drops to plus or minus 2%, or even less.

Here are what these numbers tell me:

Combining polls works: There is a minority belief that polls cannot be combined to produce more accurate results, due to different methodologies and sample sizes. This is clearly wrong. All three methods combine polls, and all three methods become more accurate every time an additional poll is introduced to the equation. So, don't ever let anyone say "combining polls doesn't work." Clearly, it does.
Four is the magic number? Looks to me like having four polls or more polls on a general election campaign dramatically increases the forecasting accuracy for that campaign. If there are four or more polls in the final week, you can use pretty much and method and hit the target.
538 and Pollster.com even, I'm further back: Pollster was equal to 538 when all campaigns are included (the "1 or more" line) and with all campaigns except the outliers (the "2 or more" line). Kind of funny that not adjusting any of the polls, and adjusting all of the polls, results in the same rate of error. To no one's surprise, my method was much better among more highly polled campaigns, but still about 10% behind the other two once poll averaging (2 polls or more) comes into play. I make no pretense about my method needing polls in order to work.
Anti-conventional wisdom: 538 had the edge among higher-polled campaigns, which means Pollster.com was superior among lower-polled campaigns. This goes against conventional wisdom. Many thought Silver's demographic regression gave him an edge among less-polled campaigns, but that Pollster's method only worked well in heavily polled environments. Turns out the opposite was true, and I'm not sure why. Maybe Silver's demographic regressions don't work, but his poll weighting does. Or something.
Still very close: While I was a little behind, the difference between the methods is minimal. I'm a little disappointed, but clearly anyone can come very close to both 538 and Pollster.com in terms of prediction accuracy with virtually no effort. Just add up the polls and average them. It is about 90% as good as the best methods around, and anyone can do it.

Even with this all in mind, the worst thing a forecaster can do is to sit on his or her laurels, and not look through the numbers to produce a more accurate methodology. These numbers might point the way to an even better forecasting method than these three, and I am eager to try and find it in advance of 2010 and 2012.

Update: I just realized that these numbers actually mean that 538 and Pollster.com are equal, not that 538 was better ("1 or more" means all polls, not just those with one poll). Article updated to reflect this. Also, the best way to judge my method against the other two is the "2 or more" polls line, since that is the moment when polls are "averaged." Given this, I was about 10% behind. Not bad for never taking a statistics course, and for only spending between one-third to one-half half my election writing on forecasts.

Election Forecast Notes

Chris Bowers — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:30:00 GMT

Since final results have not, as of yet, been certified by the fifty Secretaries of State, it is still too early to compare my final poll averages of my Presidential and Senate forecasts to the final results in those states. The initial estimate seems to be that polling averages performed very well in states where there were a lot of polls, but did not do well in the less frequently polled states of Alaska (President, Senate and House showed massive, double-digit error), Iowa (6% error), Nevada (6-7% error) and North Dakota (6% error). Polling averages also seem to have been about 4-5% off in Arizona and New Mexico. Everywhere else, the averages seem to have nailed the final targets by 2.0% or less, even though inaccurate winners were projected in Indiana and North Carolina. Basically, it seems like the more polls in your averages, the more accurate the averages become. Makes sense.

While we wait for final results in the polling average states, I am happy to say that my House Forecast has, once again, done extremely well. If, as appears likely, MD-01 and VA-05 go to Democrats, and with CA-04, CA-44, LA-04, OH-15, and WA-08 still undecided, then Democrats will net 21-26 seats. My final projection was 21-27 seats, so I am feeling like I did pretty darn well. I also did well for each of the category projections (more in the extended entry):
My projections compared to final results:

Republicans Held Seats

Likely Democrat: I projected Dems to pickup four, and they pickup up four
Lean Democrat: I projected Dems to pickup 12-13, and with OH-15 undecided we picked up 12-13.
Toss-up: I projected Dems to pickup 6, but they have overperformed and are set to pickup 7-9 with CA-04 and WA-08 till undecided.
Lean Republican: I projected Dems to pick up 5-7, but they have underperformed and are set to pick up only 2-3 with LA-04 still undecided. This does, almost precisely, cancel out the over-performance in the toss-up category.
Likely Republican and Uncompetitive: I projected Democrats to pick up 0-1 seats, and they are set to pickup 0-1 seats with CA-44 outstanding. I admit, I didn't see CA-44 coming at all.

Democratic Held Seats

Likely Republican: I projected Republicans to pick up two, and they picked up two.
Lean Republican: I projected Republicans to pick up one, and they picked up zero. To put it a different way, I picked Kanjorski to lose, but he won.
Lean Democrat: I projected Republicans to pick up 1-2 seats, and they picked up one.
Likely Democrat and uncompetitive: I projected Republicans to pick up 0-1 seats, and they picked up one.

So, I screwed up Kanjorski, undershot the "toss-up" chances for Democratic pickups, and overshot the "Lean Republican" longshots for Democratic pickups. The overall number, however, was right on the money. If we win three of the five still undecided House races, my "best guess" of 24 will have been exactly right.

So, for the second cycle in a row, I feel as though I did very well in the House--as strong, or better, than any other forecaster around. Also, I think simple polling averages will have once again proven to be very effective, but I will wait for the final numbers before comparing the different methodologies. Mainly, I want to compare my results to Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight. If either of those sites outperformed my methodology in terms of average error, than perhaps election forecasting does require something more than my simplicity. Still, given the preliminary results, I doubt they will have outperformed simple polling averages by that much.

Finally, I'd like to figure out what the hell happened in Alaska--seriously, WTF? I'm even kind of surprised to write this, but what sort of voting machines do they use up there?

My Final Election Forecasts

Chris Bowers — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:30:00 GMT

This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:

President
Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain

You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the Pollster.com national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.

Senate

Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.

House
Best Guess: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
Guess Range: 21-27
Read the entire final forecast here

Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?

Senate Forecast, 11/2: 7 Solid, 2 On The Fence

Chris Bowers — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 02:15:00 GMT

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7

State	Type	Democratic	Republican	D Cash	Margin	Polls
	We're Gonna Win
Virginia	Open	Warner	Gilmore	2713%	D +26.3	3
New Mexico	Open	T. Udall	Pearce	542%	D +15.5	4
Alaska	Incumbent	Begich	Stevens	63%	D +12.3	3
Colorado	Open	M. Udall	Schaffer	364%	D +9.5	2
New Hamp.	Freshman	Shaheen	Sununu	49%	D +8.4	7
Oregon	Incumbent	Merkley	Smith	51%	D +6.0	4
North Carolina	Freshman	Hagan	Dole	51%	D +4.5	6
	True Toss-ups
Minnesota	Freshman	Franken	Coleman	70%	R +1.5	6
Georgia	Freshman	Martin	Chambliss	8%	R +3.5*	6
	Not This Time
Kentucky	Incumbent	Lunsford	McConnell	22%	R +6.3	4
Mississippi-B	Special	Musgrove	Wicker	28%	R +9.0	2

* = The Libertarian candidate in the Georgia Senate race averages 4.5% across the six polls. If no candidate reaches 50% on Tuesday, there will be a run-off on December 2nd. Right now, the polling indicates a run-off is the most likely outcome.

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (12): Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Lautenberg (New Jersey), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

***

I will continue to monitor incoming Senate polls, but unless one of these seats shifts noticeably, I do not anticipate making another Senate forecast. This is tentatively my final forecast: Democrats gain seven seats.

Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.

Update (11/4):: Final poll numbers added. Nothing changes, really.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last eight days of the campaign (October 27th). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.

Analysis
Polling shows that we are going to win Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Polling, plus huge early voting numbers, shows that we are going to win North Carolina and Oregon, too. Given that we aren't going to lose any seats, that makes seven pickups. Overall, that gives Democrats 57 seats (with Sanders), plus maybe Lieberman, plus Biden as a tie-breaker. That will be enough to pass Obama's agenda.

However, we do need one more pickup for the Employee Free Choice Act. Since Kentucky and Mississippi-B aren't going to happen, the two remaining options are Georgia and Minnesota. Considering the polling and the early voting, Georgia appears to be narrowly headed for a run-off. Minnesota is a real toss-up, and given the early voting (which favors Franken), polling (which narrowly favors Coleman), and high third-party support, it could easily go either way.

My gut is the same as my numbers: we get the run-off in Georgia, but we lose a squeaker in Minnesota. I don't like our chances in a Georgia run-off, because there won't be the same level of organization to benefit Martin nor third-party candidates to drain support from Chambliss, but it would still be another chance. As one of the positive, progressive feedback loops, passing the Employee Free Choice Act would change the face of American workplaces, and structurally shift the country to the left. We need to get this passed, and we will have another chance to pick up the necessary seat in 2010, but right now our chances do not appear to be favorable.

Senate Forecast 10/30: Minnesota Slipping

Chris Bowers — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 19:15:00 GMT

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7

State	Type	Democratic	Republican	D Cash	Margin	Polls
	D Pickups
Virginia	Open	Warner	Gilmore	2713%	D +29.9	7
New Mexico	Open	T. Udall	Pearce	542%	D +19.0	2*
Colorado	Open	M. Udall	Schaffer	364%	D +12.5	2
Alaska	Incumbent	Begich	Stevens	63%	D +8.0	1**
New Hamp.	Freshman	Shaheen	Sununu	49%	D +6.0	5
Oregon	Incumbent	Merkley	Smith	51%	D +2.7	3
North Carolina	Freshman	Hagen	Dole	51%	D +2.0	7
	R Holds
Minnesota	Freshman	Franken	Coleman	70%	R +1.3	3
Georgia	Freshman	Martin	Chambliss	8%	R +3.0	4
Kentucky	Incumbent	Lunsford	McConnell	22%	R +3.7	3

* - No recent polls from New Mexico
** = Only post-conviction poll included.

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (13): Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Mississippi-B (Wicker), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)

Democratic Held: Democratic Losses, 0

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Dem Cash	Margin	Polls
	Dem Lead	Losses: 0
New Jersey	Incumbent	Lautenberg	Zimmer	194%	D +7.5	2

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (11): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 13 days (October 17th). The only exceptions are campaigns where two polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.

Starting on Thursday, the range of dates for included polls will drop by one per day. So, that means 13 days ago on Thursday, 12 days ago on Friday, 11 days ago on Saturday, etc. The final Senate projection on Election Day will target the same date range and methodology as the Presidential forecast.

Analysis
Alaska becomes a safe pickup due to the Stevens conviction, but Minnesota moves into "Republican Hold" and Mississippi-B becomes "Safe Republican." With eight pickups needed in order to secure The Employee Free Choice Act, one of the four progressive positive feedback loops (media reform, election reform and immigration reform are the other three), is in trouble. We need to win Georgia (run-off likely), Kentucky (not likely) or Minnesota (still very doable). Of course, we also need to hold onto North Carolina and Oregon.

It is going to be tight. I don't want the battle over the Employee Free Choice Act to come down to the Georgia Senate run-off. Let's win Minnesota now. Al Franken is on the Better Democrats page.

Senate Forecast Update, October 28th

Chris Bowers — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:29:01 GMT

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8

State	Type	Democratic	Republican	D Cash	Margin	Polls
	D Pickups
Virginia	Open	Warner	Gilmore	2713%	D +28.5	6
New Mexico	Open	T. Udall	Pearce	542%	D +19.0	2
Alaska	Incumbent	Begich	Stevens	63%	--*	0
Colorado	Open	M. Udall	Schaffer	364%	D +10.0	2
New Hamp.	Freshman	Shaheen	Sununu	49%	D +7.3	3
Oregon	Incumbent	Merkley	Smith	51%	D +4.3	3
North Carolina	Freshman	Hagen	Dole	51%	D +2.2	5
Minnesota	Freshman	Franken	Coleman	70%	D +0.7	7
	R Holds
Georgia	Freshman	Martin	Chambliss	8%	R +3.6	6
Kentucky	Incumbent	Lunsford	McConnell	22%	R +3.8	4
Mississippi-B	Special	Musgrove	Wicker	28%	R +7.0	2

* = Yesterday Stevens was convicted on multiple felony charges, almost certainly sinking his campaign.

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 14 days (October 14th). The only exceptions are campaigns where two polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.

Analysis
The Senate picture is pretty straightforward now. Democrats look set to win six pickups--Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire and Oregon--without really breaking a sweat. (With vote by mail, the election in Oregon is almost over, and Merkley has led all month). North Carolina looks good too, even though Kay Hagen is only up 2.2% across five polls. Early voting and Obama's organization will help Hagen a lot. Also, no recent polls have shown Hagen losing or tied, and Dole's 42.4% in the Pollster.com average is absolutely wretched for an incumbent. So, that's seven pickups that look very good.

The only true toss-up right now is Minnesota. Not only is the polling extremely close, but enormous support for a third-party candidate makes the direction of the campaign unpredictable. There is no way of knowing where the third-party support will break. It could boost Coleman or Franken, but it could also draw from one or the other. So really, impossible to tell who will win Minnesota right now.

There are three other single digit campaigns. Mississippi-B seems to be slipping away, and it has been a long time since Musgrove led in the polls there. Kentucky is going to be tough, given an overwhelming monetary advantage for McConnell that will probably push him over the top. That leaves Georgia, where Obama's extensive statewide organization, plus a state law requiring a run-off if neither candidate reaches 50%, as really the only other pickup opportunity, in my estimation. It is possible that we could force this one into extra innings, at which time Jim Martin would no longer be outgunned financially or in terms of name identification. We can win Georgia if we get a runoff.

So, I see 7-9 pickups, with only Minnesota and Georgia truly up in the air. Given how close some of these other campaigns are, it is possible I cutting it a little thin. However, if I can't make the close calls, then who needs me as an election forecaster, anyway? ;-)

Senate Forecast Update, October 24th

Chris Bowers — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:52:39 GMT

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8

State	Type	Democratic	Republican	D Cash	Margin	Polls
	D Pickups
Virginia	Open	Warner	Gilmore	2713%	D +25.3	3
New Mexico	Open	T. Udall	Pearce	542%	D +19.0	2
Colorado	Open	M. Udall	Schaffer	364%	D +8.8	4
New Hamp.	Freshman	Shaheen	Sununu	49%	D +7.0	1
North Carolina	Freshman	Hagen	Dole	51%	D +3.2	5
Oregon	Incumbent	Merkley	Smith	51%	D +3.0	4
Minnesota	Freshman	Franken	Coleman	70%	D +2.8	5
Alaska	Incumbent	Begich	Stevens	63%	D +1.5	2
	R Holds
Mississippi-B	Special	Musgrove	Wicker	28%	R +1.0	1
Georgia	Freshman	Martin	Chambliss	8%	R +2.5	6
Kentucky	Incumbent	Lunsford	McConnell	22%	R +3.8	4

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 14 days (October 10th). The only exceptions are campaigns where three polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.

Analysis
Pretty much the same as three days ago. I obviously feel good about Colorado and New Hampshire, but really, who doesn't? With the polls, trends, and early voting all going in our direction, I also feel very good about Oregon and North Carolina.

Early voting and polling looks good in Minnesota, but the race is extremely fluid because of the very high support for a third-party candidate. That support could either crash, and then break in unpredictable ways, or it could shoot upward, and pull away support in unpredictable ways.

With the Stevens trial wrapping up, that campaign also remains in real flux. It kind of feels like the trial is the campaign. I wonder if the trial has actually helped Stevens, too, since he is too old and decrepit to really campaign at all. The trial has kept him in the spotlight, however.

I like our chances in Georgia, as Martin could rise the Obama wave of early voting and organization in the state.

Mississippi-B is also very, very close, and we already won a House seat in Mississippi earlier this year. It could really happen. A true toss-up.

I just don't think we will win Kentucky, however. Lunsford can't quite pull ahead, and is just too far down in money. The race has threatened to move into the D column three times this year, but every time McConnell has beaten back the surge. Just not feeling it here.

I am projecting eight pickups right now, but I am starting to lean toward nine. I think we can squeeze out everything on this chart except Kentucky, plus probably one more loss. What do you think?