I've now counted 6 strikes against Specter since he announced himself a Democrat (tell me if I'm missing any):
He opposed President Obama's health care plan, voted with banks to kick people out of their homes, opposed Employee Free Choice, said Norm Coleman should be seated in Minnesota, launched a "cure cancer" fundraising site that actually funds his own political campaign, and declared he will not be a loyal Democrat.
There's an important decision for Democrats and progressives to make concerning 2010. That's why, as I've mentioned before, the PCCC, Open Left, Daily Kos, and a bunch of national and Pennsylvania progressive partners teamed up for a grassroots Straw Poll:
"Should a Draft Sestak movement be created to take on Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary?"
Voting remains open for less than 24 hours, ending 10am EST Monday. So, wanted to give folks one final chance to weigh in. Arguments for and against drafting Sestak are made on the polling site.
Over 7,000 folks have voted so far, and this Straw Poll has already been covered by Politico, ABC, NBC, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and a bunch of news outlets across Pennsylvania.
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) told a local paper he is watching the Straw Poll as he decides whether the grassroots energy exists for a primary run to be worthwhile. So the way I see it -- the more people that vote, the more impact we'll have on the race.
Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius, Ted Strickland, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tom Daschle, and Sam Nunn.
So, if all of these sources are correct, and there is no guarantee they are, that leaves us with the following, semi-short list of sixteen names (in alphabetical order):
Evan Bayh (Sen-IN)
Joe Biden (Sen-DE)
Wes Clark (Gen-AR)
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY)
Tom Daschle (Sen-SD)
Chris Dodd (Sen-CT)
James Jones (Gen-MO)
Tim Kaine (Gov-VA)
John Kerry (Sen-MA)
Patty Murray (Sen-WA)
Bill Nelson (Sen-FL)
Sam Nunn (Sen-GA)
Jack Reed (Sen-RI)
Kathleen Sebelius (Gov-KS)
Mark Warner (Gov-VA)
Jim Webb (Sen-VA)
A quick perusal of this list and I immediately arrive at some favorites: Wes Clark, Chris Dodd, Patty Murray, Jack Reed, and Kathleen Sebelius. Reed is one of the more progressive Senators out there, even though he is very quiet. Chris Dodd doesn't meet the reinforcement criteria, but he has become the sort of progressive fighter that we need. Then again, both the progressive Reed and the fighting Dodd also have Republican Governors, and so we would lose someone very good in the Senate for someone who would probably be pretty bad. Jim Webb meets the reinforcement criteria, but Natasha and Matt have both made strong cases against his selection..
So, if this is the actual semi-short list, then I think Sebelius, Clark and Murray are the top three options. I wonder if it would be possible to create a sort of group draft campaign, supporting a group we liked from the short list and opposing a group we didn't like. To start testing the waters for such an effort, in the extended entry I have created a poll that allows you to check all of the names from the above list that you find acceptable.
So, look in the extended entry, and take the poll. Remember to check all of the names that you think would be fine. If that means all sixteen, then check all sixteen names. If that only means two names, then only check two names. If that means eleven names, then check the eleven ones you like. As the VP picture begins to shake out, it is important that we start to express our opinions on the matter, too.
One month ago, the three blogs that form the Blue Majority Act Blue page, Daily Kos, Open Left, and Swing State Project, asked their communities if they wanted to endorse Barack Obama for President, or wait until a later date. While a super majority of the Daily Kos community thought it was a good time to endorse, by narrow margins a supermajority at Open Left and Swing State Project did not. As a result, we controversially we decided to not endorse at the time. However, tonight, in a non-binding, advisory straw poll, I am asking you for a second opinion.
Thirty days ago, I did not view endorsing in the presidential nomination campaign to be a major priority, and basically urged people to vote no in the straw poll. However, that has changed quite a bit, and I am ready to endorse Barack Obama now. Here are just a few reasons why, in no particular order:
First, by gaining delegates in March, Obama has become a virtual lock for the nomination. Obama will reach 2,024 delegates, not counting Michigan and Florida, on either May 20th, June 1st, or June 3rd, depending on the rate of superdelegate endorsements. He only needs 42.7% of the remaining delegates to pull this off. By contrast, Clinton needs to win 59.5% of the remaining delegates to reach 2,024 herself, even though she only reached 59.5% of the vote in one state, Arkansas. Once Obama reaches 2,204, he will control both the credentials committee and the majority of delegates on the floor of the convention, making him a lock for the nomination. In other words, unless Barack Obama decides that Hillary Clinton should be the nominee, then Barack Obama will be the nominee.
Second, the February 24-25th endorsement vote took place just before the Clinton campaign began arguing that John McCain was more qualified to be President than Barack Obama, significantly damaging the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Further, over the last two weeks, Obama has faced a vicious media assault that seeks to drive a racial wedge right down the center of the diverse Democratic coalition. While Obama himself responded beautifully in his speech last week, the continuing primary campaign made it difficult for the broader progressive and Democratic infrastructure to provide effective response. Overall, despite the outcome of the nomination practically being a foregone conclusion, the ostensible need for the party infrastructure to stay neutral presents Barack Obama with a serious structural deficit against John McCain in the general election, since the entire Republican Noise Machine is already gunning for him
Third, I have heard that fundraising for congressional candidates is starting to dry up. Partially this is because the Clinton and Obama campaigns are now raising about $2.5M a day online, and there just isn't much left over (and Clinton does not have much in the bank even with the amounts she is raising). However, even in the midst of lower online fundraising for congressional candidates, Barack Obama once again demonstrated his ability to bring coattails in the general election when Bill Foster when the special election for Dennis Hastert's old seat in IL-14. While the lengthy campaign is hurting our downticket campaigns, Obama is providing just about the only coattails we have left.
Here is the choice I think we face. On the one hand, we can pretend that Clinton still has a chance to win the nomination, and that the credentials committee and the majority of the delegates at the convention won't be controlled by some non-Obama power once Obama reaches 2,024. On the other hand, we can face reality that Clinton has no real chance to win the nomination because she further lost ground in March, a time when her own campaign admitted it needed to gain ground. Second, we can pretend that having prominent Democrats and the entire Republican Noise Machine use the same talking points on our presumptive nominee won't damage our general election chances, or we can start to build a united front against these attacks and succeed where we failed in 2004. Third, we can focus on the nomination campaign forever, or we can start to focus our attention on some downticket campaigns, too. From where I sit, the best path we can follow right now is to try and end the nomination campaign as quickly as possible, because Barack Obama is going to be the nominee and we desperately need some big wins in November up and down the ticket.
So, quite a bit has changed for me over the last month. Mike has already endorsed Obama, and I know that Matt is much more open to the possibility now, too. As such, I want to know where you stand. Should Blue Majority endorse Barack Obama now, or should we continue waiting until at least after the Pennsylvania primary? Take the advisory, non-binding straw poll in the extended entry.
update: If Clinton supporters really want me to push down the anti-Obama vote, I will happily split the poll into three options: Obama, Clinton or no endorsement. However, by combining the pro-Clinton and no endorsement vote into two categories, you stand a much better chance of making a good showing.
But hey, if it isn't democratic if I don't have all choices on the ballot, then surely we must seat the Michigan delegation as is.
Speaking of Blue Majority, Mark Pera's primary against Dan Lipinski is in just 11 days time (February 5th), and Donna Edwards faces off against Al Wynn only one week later. The time to give to them is now.
Asked to explain what precisely he found problematic, Feingold offered that Edwards had "taken in" voters by switching positions on several key issues.
"You have to consider what the audience is, and obviously these are very popular positions to take when you are in a primary where you are trying to get the progressive vote. But wait a minute -- there were opportunities to vote against the bankruptcy bill, there was an opportunity to vote against the China [trade] deal. Those are the moments where you sort of find out where somebody is. So I think, people are being taken in a little bit that now he is taking these positions."
There is no one in the Senate who I respect more than Senator Feingold. While I disagree with him on this one, I have to admit that Edwards did not engage the big fights he needed to while he was in the Senate.
President Clinton put this country on a fundamentally different path. He changed the fiscal nature of this country, he changed the international relations of this country…He left the country on a totally different trajectory where people felt they were prepared for the 21st century."
Whatever. "Fundamental change" is not something that can be immediately wiped away by the next President. Outside of Kosovo, I can't think of anything that Bill Clinton did, against Republican objections, that Bush has not entirely reversed. Considering that "Clintonian" has come to mean a series of incremental, targeted government programs, I can't see how anyone would think that Bill Clinton fundamentally changed the country.
Now that we are down to just three candidates, primary straw polls become much simpler. So, I have included one in the extended entry. I'm interested to know where Open Left readers stand.
This is an open thread. Tell the world what is on your mind.
Iowa may be the first state in the nation, but the zero delegates Open Left has been allotted for the 2008 Democratic National Convention will be decided tonight and tomorrow. Go vote in the first and only Open Left Democratic primary straw poll. The poll will stay open until midnight tomorrow. Only votes that rank at least three preferences will be counted. I will remove stuffed votes from the poll, and announce the results on Thursday morning. Go vote.
This is also the prediction thread for the Iowa caucuses. In the comments, guess the order, and final numbers, for at least the top three candidates in both the Democratic and Republican Iowa caucuses. My off-hand guess is Clinton 31%, Edwards 30%, Obama 28%, and no one else above 5%. On the Republican side, I'll go with Romney 31%, Huckabee 28%, and McCain 16%. But really, the muddled polling situation and various intricacies of the caucus makes this virtually impossible to predict.
This is why the Republican Party is not going anywhere! So shouted several Ron Paul supporters who were turned away by the San Francisco Republican Party after they attempted to participate in its recent straw poll.
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