The short-term, 24-hour political news cycle is focusing on tax day and tea parties. However, no matter the focus on conservative protests, the big news today is that Democrats will control the White House until at least January 3rd, 2013.
This news came today when Tommy Thompson announced he would not challenge Russ Feingold for Senate in Wisconsin. Some polling, mainly conducted by right-wing source, had shown that Thompson would have made the race extremely competitive. He might have even started out with a lead, in fact. However, now that Thompson is not running, it will be extremely difficult for the little-known Republicans, who trail Feingold by huge margins, to pull off the upset.
For Republicans to win control of the Senate before 2013 now, they would have to not only sweep all currently competitive races, but also pick off a victory in a seat where they currently trail by double-digits and will be massively outspent. Not only is winning every single competitive campaign extremely difficult, but the polling for those campaigns is currently dominated by Rasmussen, which is flooding the zone with polls. In reality, the current polling outlook for competitive Senate campaigns is probably more favorable to Democrats than my forecast suggests.
And, as I noted, they still need at least one extreme longshot on top of every single one of those competitive campaigns to take control. That just isn't going to happen.
Democrats will not be in control forever, and will likely lose the Senate in either 2012 or, at the latest, 2014. But they will stay in control for a while. They have a decent shot at holding the House in 2010, too. With an improving economic picture, they might actually fare pretty well in the 2012 elections.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, who served four terms as Wisconsin governor, is securing financial pledges and ramping up his outreach to longtime political aides in preparation for a possible campaign against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
Thompson has alerted his Washington-based law firm of his moves and is contacting key clients about the prospect of challenging Feingold, the most tangible signals yet that he's seriously exploring a 2010 campaign.
"The governor has taken additional steps in the past week and will continue to do so over the next several weeks. If the meetings go well, you can expect to see an exploratory committee set up near the end of March," former state commerce secretary and Thompson campaign manager Bill McCoshen told POLITICO.
The thought of losing Feingold is just... scary. In addition to his well known fight against the Patriot Act, and being the first Senator to introduce legislation to withdraw troops from Iraq, Feingold was one of only two members of the Senate to vote against the 1999 financial services deregulation, the Iraq war authorization, and the 2008 bailout (Bernie Sanders was the other, and he voted against the de-regulation act while in the House). Even beyond his votes, he is a public leader for his causes, and manages organize other Senators behind them.
Russ Feingold is worth about five Senators, or more. It might be time to organize some sort of huge, $3 million + money bomb for him to ward off Thompson's entry into the campaign.
"I want to thank the people of Iowa who were welcoming and supportive as well as my volunteers and contributors from around the country," said Thompson. "I have no regrets about running. I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."
...
"No candidate is more experienced than Governor Thompson and no candidate worked harder; but sometimes the dynamics just aren't there to bring about a victory," said Steve Grubbs, Senior Advisor to Thompson's campaign. "The Governor's staff was deeply committed to him and to his candidacy. If we could have willed a victory, we would have."
Clearly, this won't have much of an impact on the Presidential race, or Thompson would still be in it. Personally, the biggest impact I see is that it tips Wisconsin from a Republican leaning swing state in terms of fundraising to a Democratic state. Obama nearly tripled the money raised by Mitt Romney (his nearest competitor after Thompson), and outraised Clinton by factor of four. This is in keeping with Obama's strong fundraising performance in the Mid-West, but I don't see Thompson's departure having a major impact on the race.
STATE BLOGS
