The Upcoming Contests: Polls, Delegates, Formats and More

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Feb 08, 2008 at 06:10

There has been very little polling for the numerous contests to take place over the next five days, but here is what little post-Iowa information we have:

• Washington caucuses, February 9th. Starts at 4 p.m. eastern: Obama 53%--40% Clinton. Survey USA, 2.2-2/3. 78 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and both candidates are on the air and campaigning on the ground in Washington. With a caucus and a double-digit lead in the polls, Obama is heavily favored here.
  

• Louisiana primary, February 9th. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern: No polls to report, ever. What polls there are wouldn't be of any use anyway, as we saw in the primary challenge against William Jefferson in late 2006. I can report that there are 56 pledged delegates at stake, and that Jesse Jackson won here in 1988. Both candidates are campaigning on the ground and over the airwaves. Obama is once again favored. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.

• Nebraska caucuses, February 9th, ends at 9:30 p.m.: Once again, no polls to report, ever. We will probably see results trickling in from Nebraska all day tomorrow, since the caucuses start as early as 11:00 a.m. eastern in some places, and end as late as 9:30 p.m. in others. Obama has dominated caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. He also won a little caucus that was held in Iowa five weeks ago. This is big time Obama territory, and Clinton is not even visiting the state. I expect another 2-1 Obama victory in pledged caucus delegates from here.

• Virgin Islands, convention, February 9th: Beats me how the three pledged delegates will break. Expect either 2-1 Obama or 2-1 Clinton. Then again, as telephasic points out in the comments, it will probably  go 2-1 Obama, given that the island is 76% African-American.

• Maine caucuses, February 10th, starts as early as 1 p.m. eastern: There hasn't poll a from here since April, when Clinton led 39%-22%. Of course, Clinton led everywhere back then, so who knows. No clear favorite, with 24 pledged delegates at stake. This is probably Clinton's best chance for a win this week.

• Democrats Abroad, February 12th, already underway: The balloting for Democrats Abroad ends on February 12th, and we should know the results before any other polls close on Tuesday. Again, I wouldn't presume to guess how the seven pledged delegates at stake will divide up.

• Maryland primary, February 12th: The only recent poll from Maryland, taken January 6th through January 9th, showed Obama well ahead, 39%-26%. 70 pledged delegates are at stake here, and Obama is favored.

• D.C. primary, February 12th: No polls from D.C., but Obama did win the caucuses 519 to 271. I'll take that as a sign that Obama is heavily favored in this contest where 15 pledged delegates are at stake.

• Virginia primary, February 12th: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Obama is also heavily favored in Virginia. A newly released poll from Insider Advantage shows Obama ahead 52%-37%, and a Survey USA poll from January showed Obama ahead 59%--37%. Clinton is campaigning here, but this certainly looks like all Obama. 83 pledged delegates are at stake

Obviously, Obama looks really good over the next five days, where 360 pledged delegates are at stake, total. The goal for Clinton, I think, is to limit the damage by winning a state or two (possibly Maine or Virginia?), and keeping Obama's pledged delegate lead under 100, thus giving her the perception of an "overall" delegate lead. Currently, my latest pledged delegate count is Obama 896, Clinton 878, with 18 delegates still outstanding form Super Tuesday. In order to take a pledged delegate lead of 100 or more, Obama needs 230 of the 378 pledged delegates floating around between now and Tuesday. Unless he scores a 2-1 blowout in Washington, I doubt he will win quite that many. Still, when Obama's delegate total, even with super delegates included, becomes higher than Clinton's after February 19th, I wonder if news outlets will start to pay attention to the super delegate issue.