Tomorrow is not shaping up to be a great day for Democrats:
Virginia. Republicans will handily win the Governor's race after two terms of Democratic control. My final average on the campaign shows Republican McDonnell ahead 54.5%--40.8%, virtually identical to Pollster.com's 54.7%--41.0%
New York City. Michael Bloomberg will handily win a third term as mayor. The polls there show Bloomberg ahead by even more than McConnell, as he leads Mike Thompson. 52.2% to 37.8% (that is my average of the last five).
NY-23. No matter the endorsement that Democrat Bill Owens received from former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava, it is likely that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman will prevail. Of the last six polls to be released, Hoffman leads in four, and only trails by 1% in the other two. Further, Hoffman's voters are more locked-in, according to the cross-tabs of the Siena poll. Really, Hoffman has been surging for some time now, and I would be stunned if he did not win by at least 5% tomorrow.
Now, Democrats and progressives do still have decent chances in both New Jersey and Maine. As Adam and I discussed this morning, those two campaigns are almost pure toss-ups, with the odds perhaps slightly in our favor in Maine and slightly against us in New Jersey. Still, even if we win in both states, it will be more akin to holding a firewall to prevent a disaster then it will to the significant electoral gains Democrats made from 2005-2008.
On Wednesday, Democrats will be tempted to brush off these results as lacking in national meaning. There are undoubtedly local factors at play in all of these elections, and candidate / campaign quality always makes a real difference in the outcome of any election. However, as a group we should not delude ourselves. Compared to one year ago, Republicans have made measurable gains.
Across the board, Republicans have made a net improvement of about 2-3% in their national position from one year ago. Further, on top of this net Republican gain, Democrats are not as enthusiastic and well-organized as they were last year. The final Survey USA poll from Virginia shows McCain winning the likely voter pool 52%-43%, even though he lost the state 53%-46% one year ago. The final PPP poll (PDF) is less extreme, but also shows McCain voters outnumbering Obama voters in the electorate, 48%-47%.
So, Democrats are facing a twin problem of a national Republican gain of 2-3%, combined with lower enthusiasm among their own base. While it is not yet a recipe for Republicans to regain control of Congress, it is certainly a recipe for Republicans to make real gains in the 2010 elections. As a party, Democrats should address these problems rather than pretending they don't exist.
Update: Some people have asked about the special election to replace Ellen Tauscher in CA-10. The district is D+11, and the only poll shows the Democrat up by 10%. That 10% margin is a pretty good over / under to measure any national implications.
This being an odd numbered year, Open Left has done relatively little election blogging. However, on Tuesday there are a handful of major elections. Now that I am close to finishing up a new election forecasting methodology, it seems appropriate to try my hand at providing a horserace outlook on those five elections. All projections as of today, October 29th:
Maine, Repeal Marriage Equality? No: 49.7%
Yes: 45.7%
Three close elections and two blowouts. Also, who says we have a two-party system in this country? Only the Virginia Governor's race features a traditional Republican vs. Democrat two-way campaign.
New polling on the 2009 Virginia Governor's election is horrendous for Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds. Of the five polls where the majority of interviews were conducted over the last ten days (that is, since October 11th), Deeds trails by an average of 12.0%. The margin is the same whether you are looking at the median or the simple mean. With only 13 days until the election, it is highly unlikely that Deeds is going to make up such a large deficit.
Perhaps the most important factor in Deeds' impending defeat will be the lack of turnout among Obama voters. In 2008, President Obama won Virginia by a margin of 52.6%-46.3%. However, two recent polls, Survey USA (by 1%) and PPP (by 6%), show McCain voters outnumbering Obama voters within the 2009 Virginia electorate.
In both the Survey USA and PPP polls, Deeds scores 80% of Virginians who voted for Obama in 2008, and 5% of Virginians who voted for McCain. McConnell has 12% of Obama voters in PPP, and 19% in Survey USA. The Republican nominee also has the support of 88% of McCain voters in PPP, and 95% according to Survey USA.
As such, if the 2009 Virginia electorate had the same 52.6%--46.3% proportion of Obama and McCain voters as it did last year, Creigh Deeds would be 9% closer in both the Survey USA and PPP polls:
Survey USA (2008 turnout model in parenthesis)
McDonnell (R): 59% (54%)
Deeds (D): 40% (44%)
PPP (2008 turnout model in parenthesis)
McDonnell (R): 52% (47%)
Deeds (D): 40% (44%)
If the Obama-voting Democratic base was an excited in 2009 as it was a year ago, Deeds would still be losing, but he would be within striking distance. Instead, he is about to get wiped out, and decided to rev up the base with statements like this from last night (more in the extended entry):
Here is what is happening on the campaign trail today:
Virginia Governor--Deeds surges into the lead: There has been some rapid poll movement in the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary. The last four non-campaign-funded polls, all conducted entirely within the last week, show Creigh Deeds moving into a slight lead.
The four-poll average is currently Deeds 28.8%, Mcauliffe 27.8%, and Moran 24.5%. With such rapid movement and so many undecideds, it would appear that any of the three can win. However, the trend from Pollster.com shows that Deeds is surging:
Deeds would have to be considered the new favorite, given that trend. The primary is on Tuesday, June 9th.
New York Senate--potential Gillibrand challengers continue to decline: Representative Carolyn McCarthy will not challenge Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary:
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy will not challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary. McCarthy, a thorn in Gillibrand's side of late, had said she would take on the newly appointed senator in 2010 if no one else did.
But McCarthy has reversed course, citing personal issues.
Representative Carolyn Maloney is the one remaining potential candidaate who could mount a credible primary challenge to Gillibrand. Earlier this week, Maloney received a phone all from Vice-President Joe Biden, presumably encouraging her not to challenge Gillibrand. Clearly, pressure to not challenge Gillibrand is coming from the very top.
Pennsylvania Senate--Arlen Specter begs health care industry for donations: Arlen Specter made an unusually public call for donations while speaking at a conference for the American Association of Homecare today:
In an unusual move, Specter pleaded with a roomful of conference attendees Wednesday: Please write me a check. Members of Congress give talks at industry meetings all the time but they rarely - if ever - straight up ask for dough in public, especially when reporters are lurking about.
Specter was finishing up brief speech about healthcare reform to an audience of medical equipment suppliers when he closed his remarks with a fundraising pitch.
"My last [campaign] cost $23 mil. So I'd like you to consider giving me a hand with it. Campaign contributions are limited in the federal system so I have to get 50,000 contributors and the people in your industry have a reason to know my work and analysis of the situation. If you can see your way to help out, I'd be very much appreciative," Specter said.
The American Association for Homecare is a pretty run of the mill industry group, employing a few lobbyists and making a wide variety of campaign donations to members of Congress from all over the partisan and ideological spectrum. While one might think it was unseemly to ask members of a business organization for donations in public, remember this is the same Arlen Specter who said he switched parties because his chances of winning the Republican primary were "bleak." Clearly, Specter is willing to do whatever it takes to stay in office, expect maybe hide the fact that he will do whatever it takes to stay in office.
New Jersey Governor--Corzine starts out behind: Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine trails newly minted Republican nominee Chris Christie by 8.6% according to Pollster.com:
The really bad news is that Corzine has been under 40% for 13 consecutive polls, dating back to mid-January. Corzine does not have the benefit of being able to wait until 2010 for the economy to recover, but he did just announce a deal to avert any government worker layoffs.
Electoral College 2012, tied popular vote projection
Obama 258, Republican 258, Toss-up 22
Solid Obama (PVI of D +6.0 or greater): 213 Electoral Votes
Lean Obama (PVI of D +2.3 to D +5.9): 45 Electoral Votes
Toss-up (PVI of D +2.2 to R +2.2): 22 Electoral Votes
Lean Republican (PVI of R +2.3 to R +5.9): 47 Electoral Votes
Solid Republican (PVI of R +6.0 or greater): 211 Electoral Votes
This map does not project demographic changes in given states, and assumes an even popular vote. "PVI" refers to "partisan voting index," or the degree to which a given state's popular vote is projected to be different from the national popular vote. The 2.2% toss-up / lean line and the 6.0% lean / solid line were derived from previous polling research, which was reinforced in 2008 (more on that later).
This map forecasts an almost precisely even Electoral College, with Virginia as the ultimate swing state. Whoever would win Virginia's 13 electoral votes would reach 271 electoral votes, thus winning the election no matter what happens in Colorado. Virginia's preliminary Partisan Voting Index is Republican +0.86%, but ongoing demographic changes in the state, particularly in Northern Virginia, probably would render it an even contest by that point.
As already noted, this map is crude, and does not take inevitable fluctuations of demographics, organizing, and candidate appeal into account. Still, if Virginia is the number one swing state in the event of a close 2012 presidential election, the Virginia Governor's campaign in 2009 becomes a lot more interesting. Apropos, this first poll on the campaign was released today. It revealed, unsurprisingly, a very close campaign for the seat to be vacated by Tim Kaine.
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