Once again, the states are leading the way on health care reform. This past week, the Vermont House and Senate passed two versions of a bill that would essentially get a consultant to design three systems for health care in Vermont: something similar to Canadian single payer, something similar to a private system with a public option, and something similar to the recently passed federal health insurance bill.
In the wake of recent equal rights votes in Iowa, Vermont, and DC, Virginia 2009 state delegate candidate (and respected environmental blogger) Miles Grant today boldly proposed Virginia move in the same direction:
“With each passing day, Virginia’s harsh restrictions on marriage and even simple domestic partnerships are cast in deeper contrast to the steady march of progress we’re seeing across America. We take pride in Virginia’s policies that attract world-class businesses. But the best businesses in the world need the top workers in the world. What message are we sending about Virginia’s values when we tell some of those workers they’re not allowed to commit their lives to the person they love and start a family together?"
“It’s time to move our Commonwealth forward by repealing the Marshall-Newman amendment and recognizing full marriage rights for all Virginians. We’re not talking about special protections – these actions would simply ensure that all families receive basic rights, including financial protections, hospital visitation access and ability to adopt and retain custody of their children. As delegate, I’ll make it one of my top priorities to ensure civil liberties for all Virginians.”
Wouldn't it be nice if bold progressive like that actually got elected to office? Well, ahem, they can. Miles is running a great ground game in advance of the June 2009 primary. You can help him resource his campaign by chipping in here.
The credit card associations and the banks that support them have gotten away for too long without answering serious questions about their practices, and at long last, tomorrow there will be a hearing on Capitol Hill to consider the Credit Card Fair Fee Act - HR 5546. It hasn't had the same press as the Credit Card Bill of Rights but it is no less important, and I say that not just because I work with the merchant group that has done tons of work over the last couple years to bring the issue to this point.
One co-sponsor of the bill who speaking up on the issue is Vermont's Peter Welch, one of the best progressives we have in the House. Comments from Welch and more details via the Rutland Herald below:
I read very closely about what's happening with the credit card industry, and I know when they're trying to put one past a reporter. Especially a small-town reporter that they probably don't expect to do all the research on a story that a member of the SCLM would. So imagine my (mock) suprise to find a MasterCard spokesperson trying to sneak one past a reporter for the Valley News of White River Junction, Vermont.
What do they know in Vermont anyway? Enough to make MasterCard look not just deceptive, but inept at doing it. Details after the jump.
States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. Second results thread here. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 1,033.5
March 4th Primary and Caucus Results
State
Reporting
O %
C %
Delegates
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Ohio
92%
43%
55%
141
62
73
Rhode Island
99%
40%
58%
21
8
13
Texas Primary
97%
48%
51%
126
62
64
Texas Caucus
36%
52%
48%
67
0
0
Vermont
86%
60%
38%
15
9
6
Total
NA
NA
NA
370
141
156
Update 8--Texas Delegate Update: CBS is showing Clinton ahead in Texas delegates 78-70. However, they don't break it down by primary and caucus, so I can't gauge where the delegates are coming from. I'll try to have an update on the table soon.
Update 7--Be Patient On Delegates: Look everyone, just be patient on delegates. They take a looooong time to count. Earlier, Clinton supporters were freaking out because Obama was ahead in Ohio, and now Obama supporters are freaking out because I am showing Clinton so far ahead in Ohio. Don't worry, it will change. If you want updated Texas delegate totals, check out the Texas Secretary of State website. If you want updated Ohio delegate totals, please point me to a good link. Right now I'm using CBSnews.com, but I imagine there are better options. Just relax and be patient. I just put another homebrew in the fridge and I'm getting ready to watch Raider's of the Lost Ark. I'll be up for a long time, and I'll give you the new results when I find them.
Update 6--I'm From Pennsylvania and I Don't Have To Care About What You Think: Reading some of the comments, it never ceases to amaze me how supporters of both candidates always insist that the other candidate is getting the better media, no matter what. The same thing goes for rationalizing wins and losses, and what delegates should and should not count. Really, there is some sort of brain damage that occurs when people start getting a little too far behind a candidate.
But really, so what? I'm from Pennsylvania. In fact, I am a precinct captain and a member of the state party committee. My fellow precinct captain (division committeeperson, as we are called in Philly--better start to learn the lingo) is the ward leader, and she will attend the Friday meeting with both Obama and Clinton. In other words, right now, everyone else has to care about what I think, not the other way around. It'll be like Iowa on steroids, as a friend of mine running for delegate is fond of saying.
Update 5--Still A Volatile Campaign: Clearly, there is still a lot of volatility in the electorate. Obama won early Texas voting 50.6%--47.7%, and was tied or ahead among likely Texas voters just four days ago. However, three days of bad media for Obama, and Election Day voters seem to have swung in favor of Clinton by about ten points (and yes, the polling did see this coming tonight, within 1% of current margins). With the wild swings in this election, clearly, nothing should be taken for granted in the future. Of course, after tonight, Obama will still comfortably lead even with Florida and superdelegates included.
Update 4--Voters Don't Want the Campaign to End: Every time one candidate has had a chance to finish the other off, the voters have decided they want the campaign to continue. Clinton lost Iowa, then Obama lost New Hampshire, then Clinton lost South Carolina huge, then Obama managed to pull even on Super Tuesday, and now Clinton seems to have scratched together enough tonight to keep going.
Update 3--Clinton wins Texas primary: CBS projects Clinton as the winner of the Texas primary, at least in terms of the popular vote. No doubt she will continue on to Pennsylvania now. Still, in addition to the Texas caucus, there are also a lot of delegates still to be counted tonight. I'm in for the long haul.
Update 2--Texas margin stagnant: I've noticed that Clinton's lead in Texas has been stuck at in the 50,000s for a loooong time. Obama doesn't seem to be making up any ground, but he isn't losing any ground, either. Also, this will be the ultimate test of the caucus vs. primary difference between the two candidates.
Update: It looks like the networks caught up to me on Rhode Island. Congrats to international news orgs on staying even with a guy in his bedroom in West Philly. Also, keep in mind that the Texas primary delegates shown here are projections, not actual final delegate totals.
Third results thread here. States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. First results thread here. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 1,033.5
Update 9--maybe Clinton can win the Texas primary: Austin and Dallas have reported a majority of their precincts now, and yet Clinton's lead continues to slowly eek forward. Maybe she can win the primary popular vote after all.
Update 8--Axelrod channels Mark Penn: Looks like the Obama campaign thought Clinton's strategy of saying that states don't count was such a good idea, that they would try it themselves. Axelrod:
On losing Ohio, he said it doesn't matter if the campaign didn't win since a Democrat will win Ohio regardless -- due to the economic situation there.
Bleh.
Update 7--Rhode Island Delegate Projection: Since none of the media outlets seem to be doing it, I went ahead and projected Rhode Island's delegates myself. It isn't hard. She won the at-large 3-2, the PLEOs 2-1, the seven-delegate district 4-3, and the six delegate district is either 4-2 Clinton or a 3-3 tie. I guess I should be frustrated that I had to do it myself, but that is one of the main reasons for the progressive blogosphere: we started doing what we were doing because no one else was. DIY rules!
Update 6--Texas Primary Delegate Projection: Burnt Orange Report is currently projecting the Texas primary to break 69 delegates for Obama, and 57 for Clinton. That could change, but it would be huge for Obama if it sticks.
Update 5--Clinton declares victory: Clinton declares victory. Pennsylvania, here we come. Oh wait--I'm already here. This is going to be crazy.
Update 4--on to Pennsylvania?: I have to think that with her decently sized wins in Ohio and Rhode Island tonight, Clinton will stay in no matter what happens in Texas. Rumors are swirling that some Clinton advisors want her to stop if he loses Texas, but I don't buy it. Or, at least I don't buy that as the majority opinion of the Clinton camp. Still, this is all speculation on my part, too.
Update--Clinton Wins Ohio: Took 'em long enough to finally call it. The margins in Cuyahoga just weren't there for Obama. Also, Clinton has edged ahead in the Texas primary popular vote. However, I do not expect it to last.
Update 2--Ohio delegate count explanation: Why is Obama ahead in Ohio delegates despite being down by double digits in the popular vote? First, it is because Clinton's strongest congressional districts tend to be four-delegate districts. In order to take a 3-1 advantage in those districts, she would need 62.5001% of the two-candidate vote. Generally speaking, she is instead coming in at 57%-61%. That results in a 2-2 delegate split, even in her best areas. Second, Obama's best areas, Hamilton and Cayahoga, have yet to report many votes. So, the popular vote will narrow. the still fluctuating popular vote means none of the statewide delegates can be counted yet. So, Clinton's statewide lead is not factored into the delegate count yet. Third, Obama's best districts tend to have six or more delegates in them. In order to win a six-delegate district 4-2, he only needs 58.34% of the vote. So, his bar is lower.
Update--Most cities yet to report: CNN has some great maps of Ohio and Texas that show which counties have yet to report. Generally speaking, the major cities are the places with the most outstanding votes. Cayuhuga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) have 0% reporting. Dallas (where Obama lead by 30%) is at 4% reporting, Houston (where Obama leads by 24%) is at 1% reporting, and Austin (where Obama leads by 30%) is at 9% reporting. Obama also holds large leads in the counties directly surrounding those cities, and those counties have also reported few votes so far. Clinton is up by 9% in San Antonio, which is at 3% reporting.
Overall, I think Clinton looks set to win Ohio, while Obama looks set to win Texas.
Second Results thread here. States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. All times are eastern. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates,a and Clinton with 1,033.5
Update 8--Ohio Delegate Thoughts: Clinton is putting up a pretty big margin in some of these early returns. However, in many of congressional districts where she is putting up the margin, a 20% victory is actually not quite enough to earn the key 3-1 delegate splits. Rather, she needed 62.51% of the two-candidate vote or more in order to pull that off. The delegate math in Ohio seems to be helping Obama, despite Clinton's overall popular advantage.
Update 7--Clinton Wins Rhode Island: CBS, CNN and NBC all call Rhode Island for Clinton. It has been a long time since she won a primary, but she has finally done it again. I imagine Ohio can't be too far behind. Texas still looks like the biggest contest of the night.
Update 6--McCain Clinches Republican Nomination: Not much suspense, but John McCain has clinched the Republican nomination. Howard Dean's statement:
"John McCain is out of touch with the issues facing Americans each day. Instead of offering solutions to the high cost of health care, help for the middle class or ideas to create jobs, McCain offers 100 years in Iraq and more of the same Bush budgets that have heaped debt onto our children and damaged our economy. Instead of ending the influence of lobbyists in Washington, he's hired them to run his campaign. The closer voters look at the real McCain record, the more they will realize he cannot be trusted to deliver the change America wants."
Go Howard!
Update 5--Texas and Rhode Island Exit Polls: Exit polls for Texas and Rhode Island are now available. Quick math for Rhode Island shows Clinton 51.6%--47.5% Obama. In Texas, quick math shows Clinton 50.0%--48.6% Obama. Importantly, that actually means Obama looks to be slightly favored in Texas, given his 88,000 margin among the nearly 1,000,000 early voters.
Update 4--Clinton closing gap in Texas: Clinton is continually closing the gap in Texas. Still, with nearly one million votes counted, Obama leads by 88,000.
Update 3--Obama jumps out to huge lead in Texas: It would appear that Obama dominated early voting in Texas. With over 750,000 850,000 votes already in, Obama holds a huge advantage of 17% 13%, or about 130,000 votes 110,000. Functionally, it means that Clinton must win on Election Day by 4-5% just to tie Obama in Texas. This is a huge boost for Obama's chances to win the night on delegates, and possibly even to knock Clinton out of the campaign.
Update 2--Ohio polls close: Exit poll can be found here. At first glance, it indicates a narrow Clinton victory, 51%-48%. That sort of victory won't net many pledged delegates. Also, some Ohio polls might be open until 8:30 p.m. because of bad weather.
Update--Obama wins Vermont. Exit poll can be found here. Looks like a huge Obama blowout, with back of the envelope math showing Obama 62%-37% Clinton. If Obama wins 65.01% or more of the two-candidate vote, he wins the delegate count 10-5. If Obama wins between 55.01% and 64.99% of the two candidate vote, he wins the delegates 9-6. At least I think that is how it works.
The Obama campaign expects to net seven or eight delegates out of the night from winning Vermont... they expect, delegate-wise, RI and Ohio will tie, and Texas, because of the caucus, will be a wash.
The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama's caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.
Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.
In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.
The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.
And yet more exit poll information can be found here. No specific head-to-head numbers, but I'm not really sure how useful those would be, anyway. Early voting has been huge, and that is not included in the exits. Also, early exit polls tend to shift quite a bit from final exit polls.
Vermont: Obama 63%--36% Clinton
Ohio: Clinton 54%--44% Obama
Rhode Island: Clinton 55%--44% Obama
Texas Primary: Clinton 50%--48% Obama
Texas Caucus: Obama 38 delegates, Clinton 29 delegates
I imagine some useless early exit polls will be released soon, that will either unjustifiably raise or crush the hopes of some. I'll update those exit polls in this post when they come out. For now, in order to coherently blog until 3 a.m., I need to take a nap, which has become a tradition of mine on primary / caucus election days.
An interesting side note: if you use my pledged delegate count (Obama +161), and CBS's superdelegate count (Clinton +35), then Obama leads by five delegates even with superdelegates, Florida, and Michigan included (and even with Obama receiving zero delegates in Michigan). If Obama wins the most delegates tonight, then after March 11th he will lead in all counts even when all of those factors are included. The friendliest possible pro-Clinton count gives her a 15-delegate lead. So, if Obama is able to win 193 delegates tonight, which would be a net of 16, then the nomination campaign is functionally over.
Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.
In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.
The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.
Note that even though Rhode Island is a closed primary, one in three voters still describe themselves as independents. Every single one of them is actually a registered Democrat.
Here are all of the polling averages for tonight's five contests in a single table (source for polls):
March 4th Polling, At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Ohio
Mar 04
8
42.8%
51.0%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
4
38.8%
49.0%
21
Texas C
Mar 04
0
--
--
67
Texas P
Mar 04
7
45.9%
48.1%
126
Vermont
Mar 04
3
56.7%
35.3%
15
These polls lead to the following delegate projections:
Delegate Projections, Based On Current Polling
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 07
1,194.5
1,033.5
2,272
Ohio
Mar 04
64
77
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
9
12
21
Texas P
Mar 04
62
64
126
Texas C
Mar 04
38
29
67
Vermont
Mar 04
9
6
15
Sub-Total
Mar 04
182
188
370
Grand Total
Jun 07
1,376.5
1,221.5
2,642
I calculated the Texas caucus results based on the average delegate results from Nevada and Maine, which since Iowa have been the two most favorable caucuses for Clinton (New Mexico was CINO, Caucus In Name Only). Overall, that comes out to a Clinton advantage of 188-182. Could March 4th be the first day that Clinton has won a victory in delegates? Obama has been undefeated on that front the entire campaign, which is one of the reasons why he is still heavily favored in delegate math.
More details on these numbers in the extended entry.
Using only polls that were conducted entirely after Wisconsin, here are the latest polling averages from March 4th states: (all polls listed at Pollster.com)
March 4th polling At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Ohio
Mar 04
7
43.1%
47.9%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
3
39.3%
51.3%
21
Texas
Mar 04
10
47.2%
45.8%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
3
56.7%
35.3%
15
These averages include more polls than those found at Real Clear Politics. The main difference is that I include the latest poll from every polling firm (RCP leaves some out, like ARG and IVR polls), and that I include some older polls. I think the latter is particularly key, given that quite a bit of voting has already taken place in all of these states, so throwing out older polls does not make sense to me. In particular, while Obama is slowly making up ground in Ohio, he probably already lost the state through early voting that was more pro-Clinton than recent polls. Early voting is how, for example, Clinton outperformed the polls in states like California and Massachusetts. While Obama might have drawn even in those states on Election Day, his momentum was simply unable to overcome substantial early voting leads by Clinton. While Obama had already just about caught up in Texas when early voting began back on February 19th, he still trailed in Ohio by 8-10%. To win Ohio, Obama might have to win the Election Day vote by more than 5%, which seems highly unlikely.
I will be pretty surprised if Obama does not win the most delegates on March 4th, further increasing his pledged delegate lead. Right now, even with superdelegates, Florida and Michigan included, and even with Obama receiving zero pledged delegates from Michigan, Clinton only leads the delegate count by 17 according to Democratic convention watch. With Wyoming and Mississippi looming just over the March 4th horizon, in all likelihood by March 12th Obama will be ahead even in the most favorable, pro-Clinton delegate count available. With Obama holding substantial leads on the May 6th states of Indiana and North Carolina, a win in Pennsylvania on April 22nd would obviously end the campaign once and for all. While it would not surprise me if Clinton continued on to Pennsylvania, barring a shock delegate victory on March 4th, clearly the Keystone state would be her last chance.
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
The polling that led me to conclude Clinton faces an insurmountable pledged delegate deficit has swung even further in favor of Obama. On March 4th, Obama has pulled slightly closer in Ohio (7.0% down from 7.3%), and slightly further ahead in Texas (1.6% up from 1.0%). Rhode Island is unchanged, while Clinton has pulled closer in Vermont (21.4% down from 25.0%). Obama has pulled nine points closer in Pennsylvania, and seven points further ahead in North Carolina. While West Virginia off-sets most of these gains for Obama, even favorable delegate projections for Clinton show losing eight net pledged delegates between now and May 13th.
Pro-Clinton Delegate Projections, Based On Current Polling
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Clinton Poll Margin
P. Delegates
Jun 7
1,193.5
1,033.5
3,253
--
Ohio
Mar 04
65
76
141
+7.0%
Rhode Island
Mar 04
8
13
21
+13.5%
Texas P
Mar 04
63
63
126
-1.0%
Texas C
Mar 04
38
29
67
--
Vermont
Mar 04
9
6
15
-21.4%
Wyoming
Mar 08
7
5
12
--
Mississippi
Mar 11
18
15
33
--
Iowa*
Mar 15
7
7
14
--
Pennsylvania
April 22
75
83
158
+5.0%
Guam
May 03
1
3
4
--
Indiana
May 06
41
31
72
-15.0%
North Carolina
May 06
65
50
115
-14.0%
West Virginia
May 13
9
19
28
+21.0%
Total
NA
407
399
778
--
A deficit of 168 pledged delegates after West Virginia is untenable. Obviously, Clinton needs to change the direction of the campaign, because current delegate math indicates virtually no way for her to win.
Here are the latest numbers, with all polls conducted entirely since February 16th:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
38
1,194.5
1,032.5
3,253 / 3,566
Ohio
Mar 04
7
42.0%
49.3%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
2
39.0%
52.5%
21
Texas
Mar 04
8
47.4%
46.4%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
2
58.5%
33.5%
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
0
--
--
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
0
--
--
33
Iowa*
Mar 15
0
--
--
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
2
34.0%
48.0%
158
Guam
May 03
0
--
--
4
Indiana
May 06
1
40.0%
25.0%
72
North Carolina
May 06
3
45.7%
37.0%
115
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
Non-ARG Texas shows a tie at 47.0%, while non-ARG Ohio comes in at Clinton 49.5%--42.5% Obama. In other words, ARG is currently having little impact on the two largest March 4th states, and might be falling more in line with other polls.
Clinton's Texas situation is growing dire, and her lead in Ohio is also slipping. At this point, I would now be stunned if Obama failed further increase his pledged delegate lead between now and March 11th. Also, I am starting to think that I will be proven wrong about the Clinton campaign continuing on to April 22nd and Pennsylvania, since there is no possible way for Clinton to recover from a double loss in Ohio and Texas..
Obama chances to win the nomination seem to increase every day. It won't be long before he leads even when superdelegates, Florida and Michigan are included, even while receiving zero delegates from Michigan. Clinton's slim hopes now rest on perfect storm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, the credentials committee, and stopping the flow of superdelegates to Obama. But even in all of those areas, Obama continues to slowly gain ground. It does not appear as though it will be long before the nomination at a glance is put to rest, and questions over superdelegates, endorsement votes, and the credentials committee become moot. While this is the most closely contested nomination campaign the Democratic Party has seen for nearly a century, it also appears to be rapidly reaching a conclusion. What a ride it has been.
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